BB: Top Teams in West Region

Started by CrashDavisD3, February 20, 2012, 08:23:11 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

SoCalSoxFan

#2235
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 28, 2018, 07:57:15 PM
UT-Tyler  8, Randolph Macon 6

TLU 5,  Concordia Chicago 4.

This is the first time in the history of D-3 (42 national championships) for the 2 finalists to come from the same region!

The West Region will have won 4 of the last 6 National Championships.

Congrats Texas-Tyler and TLU!!
West region continues to be very strong!!

GRAND CHUTE, Wis. - No region has ever won three consecutive Division III baseball national championships.

Until now!!!   Great job West Region!!

Ralph Turner


Ralph Turner

Looking at the West Region...

CTX at #11 looks very good. A split with Redlands was good. I am sorry to see that they were swept by Wash St L, a potential playoff team (again).  There doesn't seem to be anything in the conference to slow them down. They host TLU on 04/02

Trinity is #1. They host TLU this weekend. I can imagine TU going 34-6 in the regular season.

TLU is #8. I am expecting them to win 31 games in the regular season.

My impression is that the NWC is either weak or very very very balanced. The record against teams outside the conference is not as good as one would expect.

The SCIAC is a mess. Yeah, Cal Lu (#16) and Chapman (#14) are getting votes but seem suspect this early into the conference schedule.

LaVerne went only 1-2 against both Chapman and P-P.

Oxy has a good record against mediocre competition. (Centenary LA is just not as strong as 2 years ago.)

Any thoughts?

I can imagine two 3-team regionals in the new playoff format.

CTX - TLU and TUTX in Texas

NWC and Chapman and CLU in southern California.

Ron Boerger

#2238
TLU won't win 31 until Malinovsky gets back on track. 12-2 with a 1.38 ERA/ .188 OBA last year, he's 2-3 in six starts with a 6-ish ERA and .330-ish OBA after giving up 7 ER in 7 IP at Trinity tonight.   Wonder if he's battling some sort of nagging injury?

Edit:  6.14 ERA/.336 OBA

Ralph Turner

It looks like TLU may win Game 2.

Good point about a chronic injury. This looks like his sophomore season.

I had Malinowsky figured for 5 more starts.  I gave him wins against UDallas, Austin and Schreiner. I gave no decision against Southwestern and Centenary, but TLU winning both.

I am projecting a loss to TU in the night cap to go 14-7.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, I am predicting only 2 losses among 7 games against CTX, Southwestern and Centenary.

We will see.

Ron Boerger

Lol after the domination in game 2, they are ahead in game 3 so maybe they get to 31 even with Malinovsky playing the way he is.  TLU's good enough to score enough runs on most of the other SCAC teams to win more often than not. 

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Ron Boerger on March 23, 2019, 08:36:37 PM
Lol after the domination in game 2, they are ahead in game 3 so maybe they get to 31 even with Malinovsky playing the way he is.  TLU's good enough to score enough runs on most of the other SCAC teams to win more often than not.
Going to extra innings in Game 3. Tied at 6.

This has been a great series.

Ralph Turner

TLU 9-6 (10 innings ) in Game 3.

Now is the time for TU to get its house in order and make its run.

Might we see 3 more games with TLU & TU in the SCAC tourney and possibly 3 more in the NCAA's?

Ralph Turner

I have brought a conversation to this board for discussion. Jack Parkman asked a question about Trinity TX

Trinity is in fine shape.


Team                    Regional record   Regional win %  OWP (rank)     OOWP    NCAA SOS
4 Trinity (Texas)   18-7                    .720                    .6543 (6)     .5662        0.625

Quote from: Jack Parkman on March 31, 2019, 09:33:39 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 31, 2019, 08:59:28 PM
The 19-5 record by HPU is not reassuring to this point. They have only lost 5 games to a D-2 to boost the resume.


Records and winning percentage are based on in-region games only. OWP: Opponents' winning percentage. OOWP: Opponents' opponents' winning percentage. SOS: two-thirds OWP and one-third OOWP.

Team                    Regional record   Regional win %  OWP (rank)     OOWP    NCAA SOS

310 Howard Payne   19-5                           .792                     .4286 (331)   .5400   0.466

Ralph- this might be more suited for the SCAC board but what will things look like for Trinity with them playing so many games out of region?  Will anyone look at that as a negative?

We don't get Regional Rankings for another 4 weeks, but my guess is the we get a 3-team pod in Texas and in Southern California. Let's assume that the
Conference Pool A bids are:

HPU
TLU (Series winner over TUTX)
Cal Lutheran (which won the series over Chapman)
Whitworth


I have HPU playing Trinity at TLU in Game one.

I have Whitworth playing Chapman at Cal Lu in Game one.

Ralph Turner

For me, the biggest story this season is the new relevance of Cal Tech in the SCIAC.

The Beavers have risen up and bitten Cal Lutheran, Pitzer and LaVerne!

I can see Cal Tech finishing as high as 6th!

BigPoppa

Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 31, 2019, 09:51:39 PM
For me, the biggest story this season is the new relevance of Cal Tech in the SCIAC.

The Beavers have risen up and bitten Cal Lutheran, Pitzer and LaVerne!

I can see Cal Tech finishing as high as 6th!

Love this! It will only help the SCIAC's SoS.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Ralph Turner

Tourney time is around the corner.

The ASC will come down to the last weekend to settle which 2 teams will host the first weekend of 4-team tourneys. Those winners will then play best 2-of-3 for the Pool A bid the next weekend.

U Ozarks (7-11 /  14-22) needs to sweep McMurry in Abilene next weekend for a chance at a playoff slot.

LeTourneau (9-9 / 20 - 17) hosts UTD. LeTourneau has a magic number of 2 with wins over UTD or one UOz loss.
With one LeTU win and finishing in a tie with UOz at 10-11, we would be deep in the ASC Playoff handbook for tie-breakers. There is no head-to head, so the second tie-breaker is record against the highest seeded team until the tie is broken.

UT-D is (10-8 / 18-18) but has the 3-0 sweep over UOzarks in the regular season for that head-to-head tie-breaker.

A three way tie between UT-D, LeTU, and UOz at 10-11 would also be deep into the tie-breakers.  The best 2 teams would advance.

*Howard Payne           14-4   0.778      21-12   0.636   hosts HSU for 3 games
*East Texas Baptist   15-5   0.750      26-10   0.722        at LaCollege for 3 games   
*Concordia (Texas)   13-5   0.722      27-9           0.750         at UMHB for 3 games   
*Louisiana College   14-7   0.667      27-9           0.750         hosts ETBU for 3 games
*Hardin-Simmons   12-7   0.632          18-16        0.529   at HPU for 3 games. Sweeping HPU leapfrogs HSU ahead of HPU by 1/2 game
*Texas-Dallas           10-8   0.556          18-18   0.500        hosts LeTU; has clinched
*Sul Ross State         11-10   0.524      15-19   0.441        has finished conference play; hosts UT-Tyler    
LeTourneau            9-9   0.500      20-17   0.541   at UTDallas; needs two wins clinch the last spot

(* = Clinched playoff spot)
   
Univ of the Ozarks   7-11   0.389      14-22   0.389   

HSU had 2 games with UMHB canceled. That probably hurt them with respect to host a first round tourney. HSU may have had 2 more wins.

HSU can host a first weekend tourney if:

HSU sweeps HPU, to get to 15-7
CTX loses 2 games to UMHB to fall to 14-7

Then:

LaCollege sweeps ETBU to get 17-7
ETBU wins at least one game against LaCollege to get to 17-7.

Getting the full 3-game series in Pineville and at UTD next weekend are crucial for that last playoff spot and possibly to determine who hosts the first round of the tourney.

Conference tie-breaker policy:

http://www.ascsports.org/sports/2014/7/24/_0724143852.aspx


Footnote: The conference standings are impacted by teams playing UT-Tyler in the 2019 schedule. Games against UT-Tyler do not count as conference games, because of UT-Tyler's move to D-2.  Therefore some teams played 24 conference games; others played 21. HSU and UMHB  had a DH canceled because of weather.

Ralph Turner

SCAC tourney is scheduled May 3-5, a 4-team double elimination format, with the 4 bids already clinched.

TLU has a virtual 2 game lead over Trinity by virtue of winning the season series, 2 games to 1.

Southwestern (9-6)  hosts Centenary LA (8-7) for the 3rd seed. The winner of this 3-game series gets 3rd seed.

Hmmm, who or which pitcher would you rather face in the first round?

An Austin Smith / Nathan Malinovsky match up would be fun in the first round!

Ralph Turner

The SCIAC post season tourney will be held on campus sites of the #1 and #2 seeds, according to the SCIAC website on May 10-12.

CHAPMAN           13-5   0.722      24-9   0.727   
LA VERNE           12-6   0.667      25-9   0.735   
CAL LUTHERAN   12-6   0.667           23-11 0.676   
OCCIDENTAL   11-7   0.611           23-11  0.676 

With 6 games to play C-M-S and Whittier are on the verge of elimination.

C-M-S           8-10   0.444          15-12-1   0.554   
WHITTIER      8-10   0.444          18-16   0.529   

Ralph Turner

The Northwest Conference tourney is scheduled for April 26-28, 2019, at the #1 seed.

Whitworth   24   19-5           0.792      22-12   0.647   
Pacific (Ore.)   24   15-9           0.625      23-16   0.590   
Whitman           24   15-9           0.625      20-16   0.556   
Pac Lutheran   24   14-10   0.583      22-14   0.611

   
George Fox   24   14-10   0.583      22-15   0.595   
Willamette   24   14-10   0.583      17-15   0.531   

The participants have not been listed yet, but Pac Lu is 2-1 against both teams.
George Fox went 1-5 against the other two including being swept by Willamette.
I assume that George Fox is eliminated and then Pac Lu gets the tie-breaker because they won the head-to-head against Willamette.