Pool C -- 2011

Started by Ralph Turner, October 09, 2011, 04:31:59 PM

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smedindy

I think IWU's body of work may make it a better first pick than Redlands. However, they'll be off the board quickly so it's a moot point.

And yes, Linfield could lose but it's a remote possibility. I think that a Linfield loss and a Del Val loss knocks CWRU out unless they get the "B".

HScoach

As much as I would like to see B-W in the playoffs because I think they're a quality team, anything that keeps Case out is OK in my book.  If you can't go 10-0 playing that schedule, you have no business qualifying.
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Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2011, 06:04:15 PM
if Endicott gets in the playoffs at 9-1 without winning the NEFC title, that's an absolute travesty, and I don't care how good they look via the criteria.

Plymouth State went in this manner a few years ago, and although they lost at Cortland, that was the year Curry won in the first round at Ithaca.

I think Endicott going is much more of a possibility than people seem to be considering, if DelVal wins.
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ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: K-Mack on November 09, 2011, 03:02:34 AM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2011, 06:04:15 PM
if Endicott gets in the playoffs at 9-1 without winning the NEFC title, that's an absolute travesty, and I don't care how good they look via the criteria.

...

I think Endicott going is much more of a possibility than people seem to be considering, if DelVal wins.

I agree.  I know that it might happen...I just don't have to like it >:(
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AUKaz00

Quote from: K-Mack on November 09, 2011, 03:02:34 AM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2011, 06:04:15 PM
if Endicott gets in the playoffs at 9-1 without winning the NEFC title, that's an absolute travesty, and I don't care how good they look via the criteria.

Plymouth State went in this manner a few years ago, and although they lost at Cortland, that was the year Curry won in the first round at Ithaca.

I think Endicott going is much more of a possibility than people seem to be considering, if DelVal wins.

You got it backwards, Keith.  Plymouth State went via the NEFC AQ and Curry claimed a Pool C the year after beating Hartwick in the first round.  Semantics perhaps, but while Endicott made the dance last year they didn't win.  It'll be interesting to see what happens in regards to regional rankings today and selections on Sunday.  Plus, I'd guess it's a 50/50 proposition that one of the 1-loss Pool C contenders loses this weekend (though it's likely the same proposition that Del Valley loses, so it could be a wash for teams on the bubble).
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Mr. Ypsi

The final regional rankings (that we get to see) are now posted.  As I feared (but expected), Case is still ahead of IWU.  My hope is that the national committee will reverse that, as Case would be likely to block IWU even reaching the table for a long time (perhaps even forever).

Just to be safe, I will be rooting for CMU to knock off Case and/or Huntingdon to knock off Wesley (likely making Case the B). ;)

softballrz

Endicott at 8. no one saw that coming

softballrz

as a fan of the nefc I will take it

AUKaz00

Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 07, 2011, 10:32:41 AM
Endicott is an interesting case.  They weren't listed in the Regional Rankings for the East, so the best they could be was 11th.  They should leap SUNY-Maritime and potentially Lycoming, but does St. John Fisher and the loser of Kean/Montclair fall far enough that they end up below Endicott?  And if Widener loses, would they remain above Endicott?  That's at least 2 and maybe 3 two-loss teams that Endicott would have to pass in order to even get on the board during the Pool C discussion.  If Endicott is higher than Fisher in the second RR, then I bet the committee will continue to move the Gulls over any other two-loss teams after the next week's games.

Endicott indeed is ahead of Fisher, so expect the NJAC loser to fall below them as well as Widener if they fail at their bid to take the MAC.
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Ralph Turner

As I see it, a "loss" and a "result" are 2 different things.  Kean has a result/win versus Wesley.

wally_wabash

Did a little Pool C analysis...a couple of things that I'm assuming:
- Hobart either goes to Pool A or gets knocked below Endicott
- The NJAC runner up will fall below Endicott
- The national committee will reorder IWU and CWRU on the North tableau
- Linfield isn't losing to Lewis & Clark
- Wesley beats Huntingdon and is selected in Pool B

So I've got two scenarios...one if Delaware Valley wins, one if Delaware Valley loses. 

If Del Val wins, my selections are:
Round 1: Endicott, IWU, McMurry, Redlands - Titans have the same number of wins over RR'd teams as McMurry and Redlands, but have a higher SOS
Round 2: Endicott, CWRU, McMurry, Redlands -  Redlands and McMurry have very similar resumés, I think the edge goes to Redlands because they have a better win
Round 3: Endicott, CWRU, McMurry, Illinois College - McMurry is quite clearly the best of this group...the other three do not have a win over a RR'd team and have inferior SOS's
Round 4: Endicott, CWRU, Centre, Illinois College - Centre, I believe actually looks better than McMurry and probably would have been taken immediately if they were on the board.  The national committee may "fix" that order in the South
Round 5: Endicott, CWRU, Louisiana College, Illinois College - Louisiana College has a stronger schedule, but they have zero wins against ranked teams and have the extra loss.  Endicott is the choice based on SOS.
Round 6: NJAC runner up, CWRU, Louisiana College, Illinois College - The NJAC runner up will have a strong case here, particularly if it's Kean as they will have a win over a ranked team (the SOS will get a boost as well this week).  Ultimately, I think the committee prefers that you don't lose twice and Illinois College has a slight SOS edge on CWRU. 

Now, if Del Val loses, Del Val will be the first up in the East.  I won't go through the whole process again...IWU, Redlands, McMurry, and Centre and still my choices for the first four rounds all ahead of Delaware Valley.  Then Del Val comes off, then Endicott.  Del Val could go ahead of McMurry, but then McMurry will go followed immediately by Centre, then we're back to the same final four at the table for the last spot.  Basically, if Del Val loses, they're in, Illinois College is out. 

And now let the week 11 hysteria begin and blow all of this right out of the water. :)
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smedindy

I think CWRU goes in before Endicott or Illinois College. What's your reasoning for leaving them out? Their undefeated regional record should be a pretty big factor, even nationally. Otherwise, don't make it a criteria.

wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on November 09, 2011, 04:28:52 PM
I think CWRU goes in before Endicott or Illinois College. What's your reasoning for leaving them out?

SOS.  Endicott is done and ranks 82. CWRU is 126 and their game against CMU doesn't look like it'll change their number much.  Illinois College is at 118 and is done.  And I'm also not pretending that CWRU didn't lose a game. 
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smedindy

I'm not either. But if they want to make a system based on regionality, they'd have to reward an undefeated regional record.