POOL B/C Selection
Pool A-40, Pool B-2, Pool C-14
Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by
the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage — last 25% of the season (if applicable)
Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their
third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible f
or rankings and selection.
Weighted Scale
Once the OWP and OOWP are calculated, they are to be combined on a weighted scale (e.g., 2/3 weight
for OWP and 1/3 weight for OOWP) and this combined number becomes the strength of schedule.
Secondary Criteria
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III
and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA
Divisions I and II).
● Non-Division III win-loss percentage.
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents
● Non-Division III Strength of Schedule
A factor in the Pool B/C Bids ;D
http://d3baseball.com/seasons/2014/schedule?tmpl=sos-template
Oh, a slight factor :)
As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.
The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.
Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...
Marietta
Heidelberg
Stevens Point
John Carroll
St. Thomas
Southern Maine
Amherst
Rowan
Case Western (likely Pool B though)
Moravian
Rutgers-Camden
Baldwin-Wallace
Cortland State
Concordia Ill
Ramapo
Emory (could be Pool B)
Shenandoah
ECSU
UW-Whitewater
Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate)
Linfield (likely won't need it)
Webster
York
Buena Vista
Gettysburg
Tufts
Trinity
St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
Great breakdown! It's fun to start looking ahead at potential bids!
Quote from: D3SportsFan on April 16, 2014, 12:18:35 PM
Great breakdown! It's fun to start looking ahead at potential bids!
of course none of this matter once a few teams not on this list steal Pool A bids and bump the bottom of the Pool C teams out.
Yeah, it's more of a watch list. Teams will play their way off or up it before the Pool A berths start going out. I wouldn't say it doesn't matter, though. It gave me a little better idea of who is truly in contention, and a baseline for discussion of other teams that someone might think should be added.
FYI for the site admins, the links off the strength of schedule page are going to 2013 schedule/results. Tried several, all did the same.
Got it fixed -- thanks for the heads-up.
Would be nice to have the Win-Loss percentage againt DIII opponents somewhere to be found?
Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by
the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage — last 25% of the season (if applicable)
That's what's on the strength of schedule page now, I believe. No in-region/out-of-region foolishness anymore.
What I don't get is the "if applicable" about the last 25% of the season. What, do some teams just not bother completing the schedule?
Thanks, Spence.
Quote from: Spence on April 15, 2014, 01:42:18 PM
Oh, a slight factor :)
As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.
The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.
Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...
Mideast: Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest: Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England: Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic: Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York: Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South : Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West: Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central: Webster, Buena Vista
On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
Quote from: Spence on April 16, 2014, 07:17:39 PM
That's what's on the strength of schedule page now, I believe. No in-region/out-of-region foolishness anymore.
What I don't get is the "if applicable" about the last 25% of the season. What, do some teams just not bother completing the schedule?
The last 25% thing is meant to measure if a team is on the upswing or tailing off. Not sure how often it's used or if a committee would ever be honest about it if they did.
And you as well...that's a much more user-friendly look :)
Ithaca and Berry lost today. Shenandoah split but I don't think that hurts them that much.
Looks like the most likely multi-bid leagues (before upsets) are the OAC, LEC, NESCAC, and NJAC.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 16, 2014, 08:41:30 PM
Thanks, Spence.
Quote from: Spence on April 15, 2014, 01:42:18 PM
Oh, a slight factor :)
As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.
The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.
Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...
Mideast: Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest: Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England: Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic: Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York: Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South : Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West: Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central: Webster, Buena Vista
On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
[/quote
Spence's breakdown, and his note about Bowdoin gives me doubt about some West team's candidacy for a pool C now. Willamette winning out and going 27-11 (23-8 against D3) now really looks on the fringe given this context, despite the fact that I think they'd be extremely competitive in the regional. George Fox is now done I believe, having dropped 2/3 to Pac Lu, save for a miracle finish in their five games against Fox. Maybe the only Pool C might come from SCIAC if Chapman/Cal Lu each virtually win-out to the SCIAC tournament final. If not, I am starting to believe a repeat of 2012, with two out-of-region teams (hopefully very competitive ones) flown in.
Quote from: Spence on April 16, 2014, 10:39:26 PM
And you as well...that's a much more user-friendly look :)
Ithaca and Berry lost today. Shenandoah split but I don't think that hurts them that much.
Looks like the most likely multi-bid leagues (before upsets) are the OAC, LEC, NESCAC, and NJAC.
It does remind us how they may line up when they are on the table on Selection Day.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 17, 2014, 11:29:12 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 16, 2014, 10:39:26 PM
And you as well...that's a much more user-friendly look :)
Ithaca and Berry lost today. Shenandoah split but I don't think that hurts them that much.
Looks like the most likely multi-bid leagues (before upsets) are the OAC, LEC, NESCAC, and NJAC.
It does remind us how they may line up when they are on the table on Selection Day.
Add WIAC. UW-Whitewater vaulted to 14th in SOS after 4 games against UWSP. I figured that would happen, but didn't want to be presumptuous and wanted to keep this (mostly) factual and analytical rather than predictive.
Quote from: Whatagame on April 17, 2014, 06:58:00 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 16, 2014, 08:41:30 PM
Thanks, Spence.
Quote from: Spence on April 15, 2014, 01:42:18 PM
Oh, a slight factor :)
As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.
The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.
Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...
Mideast: Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest: Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England: Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic: Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York: Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South : Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West: Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central: Webster, Buena Vista
On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
Spence's breakdown, and his note about Bowdoin gives me doubt about some West team's candidacy for a pool C now. Willamette winning out and going 27-11 (23-8 against D3) now really looks on the fringe given this context, despite the fact that I think they'd be extremely competitive in the regional. George Fox is now done I believe, having dropped 2/3 to Pac Lu, save for a miracle finish in their five games against Fox. Maybe the only Pool C might come from SCIAC if Chapman/Cal Lu each virtually win-out to the SCIAC tournament final. If not, I am starting to believe a repeat of 2012, with two out-of-region teams (hopefully very competitive ones) flown in.
I'm really curious to see how the committee handles this. Right now the top of the SOS rankings is dominated by 4 leagues (OAC, WIAC, UAA, NJAC). This is the first year that all games, regardless of region, count equally in SOS. This matches the selections most of us are probably most familiar with, the March Madness bracket picks -- Selection Sunday.
By the March Madness paradigm, schools like John Carroll and Rutgers-Camden would be looking like power conference bubble teams that typically make the tournament. Marietta and Stevens Point would be looking like virtual locks despite not leading their conferences right now. Strength of schedule is a very heavy consideration, and regional balance not really at all since the regionals are so in name only.
Question is: will it work out that way, will the committee value teams similarly to the March Madness selections, or will more consideration be given to other factors (without for now being specific as to what those might be).
I don't know if there's really a way to know this until Monday morning.
If the committee truly follows the formula for 2014 this would mean fewer conferences with Pool B/C teams and more travel since out of regional teams would have to fly into a region with weaker teams/SOS/D3 Records.
Sorry but I would limit each conference to 2 teams in a Regional. Just my opinion. This is DIII baseball and not the DI March Madness basketball tournament with 68 teams.
Also IMO at the DIII level teams should only play in their region Regional. I am sure many will disagree.
1. All conferences should have conference tournaments. These are the Automatic Qualifier bids
2. Pool B/C get combines into At Large Berths
3. Add D3 percentage and SOS. Top teams get the At large Berths.
4. All teams play in their regional. No fly in's from out of region.
5. No committee required to choose teams.
6. Limit conferences to 2 teams to a regional
7. D3 winning percentage plus SOS is how teams get seeded.
8. Win it on the field via Conference tourney or win on the field and play top teams to get at large berth.
Just to add a little more context here, I've bolded the teams that are NOT in 1st place in their Pool A conference right now...
Mideast: Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest: Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England: Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic: Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York: Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South : Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West: Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central: Webster, Buena Vista
On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
Nice work Spence, see we can be civil to each other.
Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2014, 12:45:58 AM
Just to add a little more context here, I've bolded the teams that are NOT in 1st place in their Pool A conference right now...
Mideast: Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest: Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England: Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic: Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York: Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South : Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West: Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central: Webster, Buena Vista
On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
Great job. So looks like no Pool C out of the West IF Linfield and Trinity get they get their conference Pool A bid. A few years back West had 4 Pool A bids from conference winners and ZERO Pool B/C bids with 2 fly in from outside the region. 2014 could be a repeat
I think maybe there are still slight possibilities for a couple of teams, but it doesn't look likely unless there's a conference upset.
Pacific Lutheran has a pretty good SOS, but can't afford many (any?) slip ups.
Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Ohio Northern, Fisher and Frostburg have not had helpful weekends. Rhodes beat Birmingham Southern, Allegheny moved into a tie with Wooster coming into their divisional series, Kean and Ithaca had strong Saturdays.
Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2014, 07:36:41 PM
I think maybe there are still slight possibilities for a couple of teams, but it doesn't look likely unless there's a conference upset.
Pacific Lutheran has a pretty good SOS, but can't afford many (any?) slip ups.
Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Ohio Northern, Fisher and Frostburg have not had helpful weekends. Rhodes beat Birmingham Southern, Allegheny moved into a tie with Wooster coming into their divisional series, Kean and Ithaca had strong Saturdays.
Pac Lu at 21-14 has too many losses in IMO. if the win out they will end up 25-14.
Several of those are non D3 though.
But I think losing to Lewis & Clark pretty well ends it. With a win, they could have finished second had they won out and been 26-13, 22-10 against D3. I think that *might* have been enough.
So in my continuing quest to crack a code that can't be cracked because the code is everchanging (meh), and more importantly to put off doing economics homework, I've been messing around with a bit more objective way to look at the Pool C berths.
The best I've come up with so far is a "1.3/1.2" rule. The idea of it being that if you add together a team's D3 record and their NCAA SOS, if a team has a total of 1.3 or higher, they're very likely to be a Pool C team, and if they're under 1.2, they're quite unlikely. In between could be characterized as the bubble.
Disclaimer: I HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS WORKS. It just seems like it should from the numbers.
Disclaimer 2: I didn't get out a calculator for this.
This turned out to be a bigger group than I thought, so I broke it down further. Case is almost certainly going to be Pool B, so I underlined them.
1.400+ (7)
Heidelberg, UW-Whitewater, St. Thomas, Concordia-Ill., Linfield, Webster, Tufts
1.350-1.399 (5)
Southern Maine 1.358, Case Western 1.379, Moravian 1.383, Shenandoah 1.362, Amherst 1.365
1.300-1.349 (11, 1 Pool A)
Stevens Point 1.348, Marietta 1.300, Cortland State 1.349, Rowan 1.339, Birmingham Southern 1.307, ECSU 1.313, Salisbury 1.329, Gettysburg 1.346, St. John Fisher 1.307, Buena Vista 1.345, Trinity 1.312
1.250-1.299 (12)
York 1.298, Kean 1.298, Baldwin-Wallace 1.289, Allegheny 1.289, Emory 1.286, Concordia-TX 1.281, Adrian 1.279, Cal Lutheran 1.277, Bethel 1.269, Endicott 1.258, Ithaca 1.257, Rutgers-Camden 1.256
1.200-1.249 (16)
St. John's 1.249 John Carroll 1.243 Oswego State 1.243 Rhodes 1.233 Salem State 1.226 Wheaton MA 1.244 Alvernia 1.221 Berry 1.204 Frostburg State 1.213 Augustana 1.214 Susquehanna 1.244 George Fox 1.214 Bridgewater 1.209 Union 1.200 Chapman 1.224 Wesleyan 1.232
1.180-1.199 -- just to see if anything slips through the cracks (13)
Willamette 1.184 Ramapo 1.181 Millsaps 1.177 Randolph-Macon 1.188 RPI 1.184
Wooster 1.198 Hampden-Sydney 1.192 Illinois Wesleyan 1.182 Brockport State 1.182 La Roche 1.184 UW Stout 1.198 LeTourneau 1.183 Widener 1.199
In the event anyone has made it this far, feel free to comment with how this works, doesn't work, could be better, are surprised it's not worse...basically anything.
Logically, this makes sense. Teams with with a solid win percentage AND a high SoS SHOULD have a higher number(1.3 and above). Secondly, teams that have a lower SoS are forced to have a much higher win percentage to be considered.... the same as teams with a lower win percentage need a high SoS to stay in contention.
Good work, Spence. I have thought of this in the past, but never knew where the line needed to be drawn. Curious if this magical "1.3" is usually the line or if it moves from year to year.
Love this time of year... warm sunshine and baseball games that prove to be very meaningful.
And we're finally getting spring here in Minneapolis!
Was going to go to St. Thomas Friday but got a late start, and they were done with 4 innings in 45 minutes. Then it started looking like rain.
Need to get my bicycle fixed now!
Nice job Spence.
I was wondering where George Fox was, they have two more games against Linfield, which will be make or break for them. They took one from Linflield over the weekend, but got clobbered in the other two games. I am guess they are done unless they win out.
I don't know really if this is a good job or not haha. We'll find out.
My guess would be everyone in the first 3 groups makes it, most of the 4th, and a few in the 5th. Very few or none in the last.
Of course the members of these groups are fluid. Some of the MIAC teams still have plenty of games left, for example.
It would be nice to have pre-selection numbers from previous years, but I kind of doubt those are available.
Quote from: Spence on April 20, 2014, 04:31:02 PM
So in my continuing quest to crack a code that can't be cracked because the code is everchanging (meh), and more importantly to put off doing economics homework, I've been messing around with a bit more objective way to look at the Pool C berths.
The best I've come up with so far is a "1.3/1.2" rule. The idea of it being that if you add together a team's D3 record and their NCAA SOS, if a team has a total of 1.3 or higher, they're very likely to be a Pool C team, and if they're under 1.2, they're quite unlikely. In between could be characterized as the bubble.
Disclaimer: I HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS WORKS. It just seems like it should from the numbers.
Disclaimer 2: I didn't get out a calculator for this.
This turned out to be a bigger group than I thought, so I broke it down further. Case is almost certainly going to be Pool B, so I underlined them.
1.400+ (7)
Heidelberg, UW-Whitewater, St. Thomas, Concordia-Ill., Linfield, Webster, Tufts
1.350-1.399 (5)
Southern Maine 1.358, Case Western 1.379, Moravian 1.383, Shenandoah 1.362, Amherst* 1.365
1.300-1.349 (11, 1 Pool A)
Stevens Point* 1.348, Marietta* 1.300, Cortland State 1.349, Rowan 1.339, Birmingham Southern 1.307, ECSU* 1.313, Salisbury 1.329, Gettysburg 1.346, St. John Fisher 1.307, Buena Vista 1.345, Trinity 1.312
1.250-1.299 (12)
York PA* 1.298, Kean* 1.298, Baldwin-Wallace* 1.289, Allegheny 1.289, Emory 1.286, Concordia-TX 1.281, Adrian 1.279, Cal Lutheran 1.277, Bethel* 1.269, Endicott 1.258, Ithaca 1.257, Rutgers-Camden 1.256
1.200-1.249 (16)
St. John's 1.249 John Carroll 1.243 Oswego State 1.243 Rhodes 1.233 Salem State 1.226 Wheaton MA 1.244 Alvernia 1.221 Berry 1.204 Frostburg State* 1.213 Augustana 1.214 Susquehanna* 1.244 George Fox* 1.214 Bridgewater* 1.209 Union* 1.200 Chapman* 1.224 Wesleyan* 1.232
1.180-1.199 -- just to see if anything slips through the cracks (13)
Willamette* 1.184 Ramapo* 1.181 Millsaps 1.177 Randolph-Macon* 1.188 RPI* 1.184
Wooster* 1.198 Hampden-Sydney* 1.192 Illinois Wesleyan* 1.182 Brockport State* 1.182 La Roche* 1.184 UW Stout* 1.198 LeTourneau* 1.183 Widener 1.199
In the event anyone has made it this far, feel free to comment with how this works, doesn't work, could be better, are surprised it's not worse...basically anything.
I saw that you had underlined CWRU. I underlined the rest of the Pool B teams to give us an idea of who will be cluttering up Pool C.
Thanks for putting Salisbury, the CAC Pool A, in italics.
I have added an asterisk to the second, third, etc., teams from a conference in which there is a team with a "better number" so we can see how "upsets" impact the list.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 20, 2014, 10:44:01 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 20, 2014, 04:31:02 PM
So in my continuing quest to crack a code that can't be cracked because the code is everchanging (meh), and more importantly to put off doing economics homework, I've been messing around with a bit more objective way to look at the Pool C berths.
The best I've come up with so far is a "1.3/1.2" rule. The idea of it being that if you add together a team's D3 record and their NCAA SOS, if a team has a total of 1.3 or higher, they're very likely to be a Pool C team, and if they're under 1.2, they're quite unlikely. In between could be characterized as the bubble.
Disclaimer: I HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS WORKS. It just seems like it should from the numbers.
Disclaimer 2: I didn't get out a calculator for this.
This turned out to be a bigger group than I thought, so I broke it down further. Case is almost certainly going to be Pool B, so I underlined them.
1.400+ (7)
Heidelberg, UW-Whitewater, St. Thomas, Concordia-Ill., Linfield, Webster, Tufts
1.350-1.399 (5)
Southern Maine 1.358, Case Western 1.379, Moravian 1.383, Shenandoah 1.362, Amherst* 1.365
1.300-1.349 (11, 1 Pool A)
Stevens Point* 1.348, Marietta* 1.300, Cortland State 1.349, Rowan 1.339, Birmingham Southern 1.307, ECSU* 1.313, Salisbury 1.329, Gettysburg 1.346, St. John Fisher 1.307, Buena Vista 1.345, Trinity 1.312
1.250-1.299 (12)
York PA* 1.298, Kean* 1.298, Baldwin-Wallace* 1.289, Allegheny 1.289, Emory 1.286, Concordia-TX 1.281, Adrian 1.279, Cal Lutheran 1.277, Bethel* 1.269, Endicott 1.258, Ithaca 1.257, Rutgers-Camden 1.256
1.200-1.249 (16)
St. John's 1.249 John Carroll 1.243 Oswego State 1.243 Rhodes 1.233 Salem State 1.226 Wheaton MA 1.244 Alvernia 1.221 Berry 1.204 Frostburg State* 1.213 Augustana 1.214 Susquehanna* 1.244 George Fox* 1.214 Bridgewater* 1.209 Union* 1.200 Chapman* 1.224 Wesleyan* 1.232
1.180-1.199 -- just to see if anything slips through the cracks (13)
Willamette* 1.184 Ramapo* 1.181 Millsaps 1.177 Randolph-Macon* 1.188 RPI* 1.184
Wooster* 1.198 Hampden-Sydney* 1.192 Illinois Wesleyan* 1.182 Brockport State* 1.182 La Roche* 1.184 UW Stout* 1.198 LeTourneau* 1.183 Widener 1.199
In the event anyone has made it this far, feel free to comment with how this works, doesn't work, could be better, are surprised it's not worse...basically anything.
I saw that you had underlined CWRU. I underlined the rest of the Pool B teams to give us an idea of who will be cluttering up Pool C.
Thanks for putting Salisbury, the CAC Pool A, in italics.
I have added an asterisk to the second, third, etc., teams from a conference in which there is a team with a "better number" so we can see how "upsets" impact the list.
I like this methodology of adding D3 Winning %+SOS to rank teams for Pool B/C bids. Takes alot of guess work out of choosing teams. Eliminate any teams with losing records for the last 10 D3 teams and we get closer to getting the right teams picked for Pool B/C. In past years they have been some questionable picks for Pool B/C.
I underlined Case because I feel pretty confident that they won't be in Pool C. I don't have as much confidence who the second Pool B team will be, but I know the 3rd best Pool B eligible will be in Pool C. I feel pretty sure saying that, so I wasn't too bothered about the difference.
Quote from: Spence on April 21, 2014, 01:56:43 PM
I underlined Case because I feel pretty confident that they won't be in Pool C. I don't have as much confidence who the second Pool B team will be, but I know the 3rd best Pool B eligible will be in Pool C. I feel pretty sure saying that, so I wasn't too bothered about the difference.
Hasn't Linfield wrapped up the Pool A bid from the NWC?
Quote from: tigerfan_2001 on April 21, 2014, 03:36:46 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 21, 2014, 01:56:43 PM
I underlined Case because I feel pretty confident that they won't be in Pool C. I don't have as much confidence who the second Pool B team will be, but I know the 3rd best Pool B eligible will be in Pool C. I feel pretty sure saying that, so I wasn't too bothered about the difference.
Hasn't Linfield wrapped up the Pool A bid from the NWC?
As per Crash, yes they have it wrapped up:
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8172.0
Thanks Crash. +1
A bunch of those teams will probably end up with Pool A berths. I don't think it's worth updating every day at this point. Maybe once a week or twice a week right now.
Spence,
It looks pretty detailed. My one concern would be that these numbers don't necessarily take into consideration wins against regional ranked teams which I really think the committee values highly. But then again it is strength of schedule and assuming the better the schedule the more likely you played someone that will be regionally ranked. It'll be interesting to see once the 1st regional rankings come out on Thursday to see how the regional committees value your system.
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 16, 2014, 05:53:46 PM
Would be nice to have the Win-Loss percentage againt DIII opponents somewhere to be found?
Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage — last 25% of the season (if applicable)
Quote from: Big Louie on April 22, 2014, 09:55:37 AM
Spence,
It looks pretty detailed. My one concern would be that these numbers don't necessarily take into consideration wins against regional ranked teams which I really think the committee values highly. But then again it is strength of schedule and assuming the better the schedule the more likely you played someone that will be regionally ranked. It'll be interesting to see once the 1st regional rankings come out on Thursday to see how the regional committees value your system.
It's not that detailed. It's really just 2 numbers made into one number. I'm interested to see how it works too. I don't expect it to be perfect at all.
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 20, 2014, 02:19:12 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2014, 07:36:41 PM
I think maybe there are still slight possibilities for a couple of teams, but it doesn't look likely unless there's a conference upset.
Pacific Lutheran has a pretty good SOS, but can't afford many (any?) slip ups.
Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Ohio Northern, Fisher and Frostburg have not had helpful weekends. Rhodes beat Birmingham Southern, Allegheny moved into a tie with Wooster coming into their divisional series, Kean and Ithaca had strong Saturdays.
Pac Lu at 21-14 has too many losses in IMO. if the win out they will end up 25-14.
Also, Pac Lu's chance will be impacted by SCIAC tournament results. Right now CLU and Chapman are tied going into last 4 games.
If the tie continues and then Chapman wins SCIAC tournament vs CLU in finals, then I think CLU would get Pool C before Pac Lu (they beat PL and Lubking 3-0). CLU would end approx 33-10.
If the tie continues and then CLU wins SCIAC tournamen vs CU in finals, then Chapman would be a candidate for Pool C. They'll be approx 31-12. Their early season struggles against NorthWest teams might be drag them down too much to be a Pool C candidate.
With Trinity Losing last night, I think they are done with a Pool C bid. Not winning the tourney puts them at 10 losses.
Quote from: SoCalSoxFan on April 23, 2014, 11:34:58 AM
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on April 20, 2014, 02:19:12 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2014, 07:36:41 PM
I think maybe there are still slight possibilities for a couple of teams, but it doesn't look likely unless there's a conference upset.
Pacific Lutheran has a pretty good SOS, but can't afford many (any?) slip ups.
Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Ohio Northern, Fisher and Frostburg have not had helpful weekends. Rhodes beat Birmingham Southern, Allegheny moved into a tie with Wooster coming into their divisional series, Kean and Ithaca had strong Saturdays.
Pac Lu at 21-14 has too many losses in IMO. if the win out they will end up 25-14.
Also, Pac Lu's chance will be impacted by SCIAC tournament results. Right now CLU and Chapman are tied going into last 4 games.
If the tie continues and then Chapman wins SCIAC tournament vs CLU in finals, then I think CLU would get Pool C before Pac Lu (they beat PL and Lubking 3-0). CLU would end approx 33-10.
If the tie continues and then CLU wins SCIAC tournamen vs CU in finals, then Chapman would be a candidate for Pool C. They'll be approx 31-12. Their early season struggles against NorthWest teams might be drag them down too much to be a Pool C candidate.
The NWC teams (G. Fox in particular) cooked their goose relative to Pool C because in general, with the exception of Linfield, all the teams really beat up on each other in conference play. I think it is a very deep year talent-wise in the NWC. The 9 NWC teams combined for a 48-25 record in D3 non-conference games this season, for a .658 win %. Linfield, G. Fox and Whitman combined for an outstanding 24-3 non-conference D3 record (.889%)
Another indication of the depth of the conference, for instance, is if you look at the overall NWC statistics, 23 guys with a qualifying number of innings have a sub 3.5 ERA, no other conference in West Region is even close to that figure.
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
Quote from: Spence on April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
You beat me to it, Spence.
Any other time between now and 5 today and you would have. Just came home for lunch and happened to see it.
Quote from: BigPoppa on April 23, 2014, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
You beat me to it, Spence.
Good one! You know, I actually thought about that. Linfield and G. Fox for instance are "only" batting .297 and .315, respectively, which is not great compared to the bloated averages in the SCIAC, for instance. But, having seen a fair number of teams, I'll stick to my guns!
Quote from: Whatagame on April 23, 2014, 01:54:22 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on April 23, 2014, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
You beat me to it, Spence.
Good one! You know, I actually thought about that. Linfield and G. Fox for instance are "only" batting .297 and .315, respectively, which is not great compared to the bloated averages in the SCIAC, for instance. But, having seen a fair number of teams, I'll stick to my guns!
NWC Top 3:Linfield vs. SCIAC = 71 runs in 6 games (12 runs a game).
George Fox vs. SCIAC = 60 runs in 7 games (9 runs a game).
Willamette vs. SCIAC = 34 runs in 4 games (8.5 runs a game).
I think their offense is fine 8-)
Quote from: Westside4 on April 23, 2014, 02:18:01 PM
Quote from: Whatagame on April 23, 2014, 01:54:22 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on April 23, 2014, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
You beat me to it, Spence.
Good one! You know, I actually thought about that. Linfield and G. Fox for instance are "only" batting .297 and .315, respectively, which is not great compared to the bloated averages in the SCIAC, for instance. But, having seen a fair number of teams, I'll stick to my guns!
NWC Top 3:
Linfield vs. SCIAC = 71 runs in 6 games (12 runs a game).
George Fox vs. SCIAC = 60 runs in 7 games (9 runs a game).
Willamette vs. SCIAC = 34 runs in 4 games (8.5 runs a game).
I think their offense is fine 8-)
+100
(https://www.d3boards.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.kinja-img.com%2Fgawker-media%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Fs--0QnCnCig--%2Fc_fit%2Cw_320%2Fcvqa5o0lnqinkbqqwszn.gif&hash=ba01bc10d4c4d6ec72771ecd9c847a36057d0dcc)
Quote from: Westside4 on April 23, 2014, 02:18:01 PM
Quote from: Whatagame on April 23, 2014, 01:54:22 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on April 23, 2014, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
You beat me to it, Spence.
Good one! You know, I actually thought about that. Linfield and G. Fox for instance are "only" batting .297 and .315, respectively, which is not great compared to the bloated averages in the SCIAC, for instance. But, having seen a fair number of teams, I'll stick to my guns!
NWC Top 3:
Linfield vs. SCIAC = 71 runs in 6 games (12 runs a game).
George Fox vs. SCIAC = 60 runs in 7 games (9 runs a game).
Willamette vs. SCIAC = 34 runs in 4 games (8.5 runs a game).
I think their offense is fine 8-)
OK, while we're at it, how about Whitman (currently in 7th place in NWC) vs. SCIAC, hanging 43 runs in 3 games (14 1/3 runs a game)
Quote from: Spence on April 22, 2014, 10:04:01 PM
Quote from: Big Louie on April 22, 2014, 09:55:37 AM
Spence,
It looks pretty detailed. My one concern would be that these numbers don't necessarily take into consideration wins against regional ranked teams which I really think the committee values highly. But then again it is strength of schedule and assuming the better the schedule the more likely you played someone that will be regionally ranked. It'll be interesting to see once the 1st regional rankings come out on Thursday to see how the regional committees value your system.
It's not that detailed. It's really just 2 numbers made into one number. I'm interested to see how it works too. I don't expect it to be perfect at all.
Big Louie, I like how quick and easy this one is. I am almost certain that we can overlay Spence's Index with the Regional Rankings and know who is on the bubble by Region. I always consider the bubble to be the last 10-11 teams over the 8 regions, seven of whom will stay home.
For the newbies,
1) if your team is not on Spence's list or on the Regional Ranking, win your tourney.
2) If your team is not the first team from your conference in the Regional Rankings, win your tourney.
Interesting article in Baseball America today regarding the RPI, which of course uses SOS via OWP/OOWP as a major input, as used by the NCAA selection committee in D1 Baseball.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/rpi-analysis-requires-a-closer-look/
It got me thinking about the SOS figures for D3. I remember Spence stating in an earlier post on this thread that PLU had a solid SOS that might have put them on the Pool C bubble.
PLU is ranked 40th right now in SOS, seemingly pretty solid. So I took a look at Willamette (both from the same conference), which is ranked a seemingly dismal 199th.
Calculating the OWP and OOWP for the two schools shows how subtle the difference between #40 and #199 really is.
Pac Lu's OWP calculates to an avg. opponent record (over 40 games) of 22.8 - 17.2, with opp/opp record of 20.8 - 19.2
Willamette's OWP calculates to an avg. opponent record of 20.15 - 19.85, and an opp/opp record of 20.5 - 19.5
Is there a difference between #40 and #199, sure, but not as stark as I would have thought 159 spots would be.
I like some of the concepts, such as weighting road wins (not neutral sites) higher, also that a team's three games against opponents with the worst winning percentages don't get factored into its strength of schedule. (the SCIAC/Caltech factor)
I like the 3-4 amnesty game thing. Not sure exactly how it should work since teams play differing numbers of D-III games, but conceptually I like it.
I think that small difference between teams you notice is a strength of the pct + SOS approach. The difference between 1 and 8 in SOS is the same as the difference between 17 and 99; the difference between 1 and 37 is equivalent to the difference between 37 and 264! In other words, it's a fairly normal distribution.
This is one mistake I used to make, looking at a schedule rating in the 200s or something and thinking that was much worse than one rated 100 spots higher. And no doubt, there's a difference, but it may not be all that large.
And indeed, the difficulty in differentiating below the elite level is a large part of the challenge of being on the selection committee, and why this framework is probably not going to have great predictive value at that point. I'd be thrilled if it did, but I doubt it does.
I would not doubt the committee, explicitly or otherwise, showing respect for success away from home.
Quote from: Whatagame on April 23, 2014, 01:54:22 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on April 23, 2014, 01:35:46 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 PM
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)
You beat me to it, Spence.
Good one! You know, I actually thought about that. Linfield and G. Fox for instance are "only" batting .297 and .315, respectively, which is not great compared to the bloated averages in the SCIAC, for instance. But, having seen a fair number of teams, I'll stick to my guns!
SCIAC teams has bloated batting averages since they play Cal Tech and plus 6 of the teams have ERA's over 5.40
Updated pre regional rankings. I didn't go crazy with the math here, so I would be willing to bet the rounding is off in some places, which means the ordinal for the by region part is going to be really squirrly where teams are bunched. One weakness I think I see is at the low end of the SOS, I think the formula (if you can even call it that) overstates the case for a team. I don't really think Castleton State is very close to an at-large bid.
By region
Mideast -- Heidelberg, Case Western Reserve, Marietta, Baldwin-Wallace, Allegheny, Adrian, John Carroll, La Roche
Midwest -- Whitewater, CU-Chicago, Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Bethel, St. John's
West -- Linfield, Trinity, Cal Lutheran, Chapman, George Fox, CU-Austin
Central -- Webster, Buena Vista, Augustana
New England -- Tufts, Amherst; Southern Maine, ECSU, Wesleyan (all 1.33), Endicott, Wheaton, Salem State
New York -- Cortland, St. John Fisher, Ithaca, Oswego
South -- Shenandoah, Salisbury, Birmingham Southern, Emory, York (M-A?), Rhodes, Frostburg, Berry, Bridgewater
Mid-Atlantic -- Rowan, Moravian, Gettysburg (could be any order, all 1.34), Kean, Susquehanna, Rutgers-Camden, Alvernia, Ramapo, Widener
Raw (sort of) totals.
1.4+
Heidelberg 1.41, UW-Whitewater 1.42, (Linfield 1.48), CU-Chicago 1.44, Webster 1.43, Tufts 1.44
1.35-1.4
UWSP 1.37, Case Western 1.37, St. Thomas 1.37, Cortland 1.35, Shenandoah 1.36, Amherst 1.36
1.30-1.35
USM 1.33, Moravian 1.34, Rowan 1.34, Birm. South. 1.31, ECSU 1.33 (Salisbury 1.32), Kean 1.30, St. John Fisher 1.32, Buena Vista 1.34, Gettysburg 1.34, Wesleyan 1.33
1.25-1.30
Marietta 1.29, Baldwin-Wallace 1.29, Allegheny 1.29, Emory 1.28, York 1.27, Susquehanna 1.250, Bethel 1.27, St. John's 1.250, Trinity 1.296, Cal Lutheran 1.29
1.20-1.25
RU-Camden 1.24, John Carroll 1.22, Endicott 1.22, Ramapo 1.203, Rhodes 1.22, Alvernia 1.24, Oswego 1.24, Ithaca 1.24, Salem State 1.21, Wheaton 1.21, Frostburg St 1.21, Berry 1.21, Augustana 1.22, George Fox 1.21, Bridgewater 1.21, La Roche 1.21, Adrian 1.22, Widener 1.200, CU-Austin 1.200, Chapman 1.23
Close enough that I noticed (probably within like .003) -- St. Scholastica, Mount Union, Union, Castleton St.
If I did my math right (and it's completely possible I didn't), there's 1 bid left for the 1.20-1.25 crowd if this all was perfect and the season ended today and there were no upsets.
Spence, on my quick run thru your list, I agree that there may be one Pool C bid in that list for the 1.20-1.25 crowd (minus the Pool A's that we project from that group.)
And I count 2 "B's" getting a "C".
Yep. Would be 2 of 3 of Emory, Fisher and Birmingham.
Shenandoah will be in Pool C, as Bridgewater won the ODAC.
My predictions as of today:
Pool A:
La Roche
LeTourneau
Salisbury
Gettysburg
Endicott
Augustana
Keystone
Staten Island
St. Josephs (Maine)
Manchester
Buena Vista
Moravian
Southern Maine
Rochester
Alvernia
Misericordia
Salem State
Adrian
St. Thomas
St. Norbert
Castleton State
Concordia (Ill.)
Wooster
Gallaudet
Mitchell
Amherst
Wheaton (Mass.)
Rowan
Linfield
Heidelberg
Bridgewater (Va.)
Washington and Jefferson
Trinity (Texas)
Cal Lutheran
Farmingdale State
Webster
Cortland State
St. Scholastica
Covenant
UW-Whitewater
Pool B/C Looking Good (12):
Shenandoah
Marietta
Emory
Eastern Connecticut
UW-Stevens Point
Case Western Reserve
Ithaca
Tufts
Birmingham-Southern
Kean
Rutgers-Camden
St. John Fisher
Bubble (4 of these):
John Carroll
Chapman
Oswego State
Bethel
North Park
Baldwin-Wallace
Wartburg
George Fox
York (Pa.)
Susquehanna
Brockport State
North Central (Ill.)
Allegheny
Randolph-Macon
Suffolk
Washington U.
Could all change very soon!
Not a bad starting point. Were you using Spence's Index for Pool B/C? And did you mostly use conference leaders for your Pool A picks or hunches?
Quote from: Colorado on April 29, 2014, 06:02:59 AM
Not a bad starting point. Were you using Spence's Index for Pool B/C? And did you mostly use conference leaders for your Pool A picks or hunches?
The regional rankings drive most of my order. Also, I weight SOS more because (up until last season) that has been what the selection committee has done. Pool A teams are those that have already qualified or those that would be most likely to be selected if they did not win their conference tournament.
A few interesting developments the last few days: Wheaton, Kean, RU-Camden, and Alvernia are in Pool C, having fallen out of conference tournament play.
Also, Marietta has won the OAC regular season by two games clear over Heidelberg, so that may impact the potential Pool C candidacy of teams in that league.
ECSU and USM finished tied in the LEC (ECSU winning by tiebreak I believe), increasing the chances that both get bids there.
Shenandoah was already in Pool C.
Bottom line: the pool is getting crowded, already.
EDIT TO ADD: Gettysburg fell twice to Haverford in the Centennial championship.
Quote from: Spence on May 04, 2014, 01:03:20 PM
A few interesting developments the last few days: Wheaton, Kean, RU-Camden, and Alvernia are in Pool C, having fallen out of conference tournament play.
Also, Marietta has won the OAC regular season by two games clear over Heidelberg, so that may impact the potential Pool C candidacy of teams in that league.
ECSU and USM finished tied in the LEC (ECSU winning by tiebreak I believe), increasing the chances that both get bids there.
Shenandoah was already in Pool C.
Bottom line: the pool is getting crowded, already.
EDIT TO ADD: Gettysburg fell twice to Haverford in the Centennial championship.
The basketball message boards talk about the Power Conferences, the ones likely to make it to the Final Four or at least have (annual) Pool C bids.
In alphabetical order, most pundits talk about the CCIW, the NESCAC. the ODAC, the UAA and the WIAC.
In baseball, I consider the Power Conferences to include the LEC, the NESCAC, the NJAC, the OAC, the UAA members who manage to get a B and a C, and the WIAC. (The SAA may move into that company in the next few years.) The E8 as a Pool B is close. So are the CAC, the CCIW and the MIAC. That leaves 7-9 for the rest of D-3. Let's see how that works this year.
I really only consider the NJAC to be a power conference, but in that I think of a league that will get 2 bids practically every year, and sometimes 3 or even 4. Add in their depth, the number of teams that have won championships, won regionals, won the conference and it's not even close for me. It's unfortunate that this board really doesn't have any NJAC posters. While there's no other reason I'd want to be in New Jersey, I'd love to see a season of NJAC baseball -- I like the way their schedules are set up too, playing 4 games in 3 days against 3 different teams.
The LEC, OAC and WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but that doesn't happen every year, and if a spoiler team wins the conference tournament, with the way Pool C is filling up, nothing is assured even for these 3. Marietta winning the OAC by 2 games clear was certainly an interesting development that might change how the committee thinks about the teams in that league.
I don't know if the CAC, CCIW and MIAC have multiple teams worthy of a Pool C. York has kind of shot itself in the foot, and Bethel was the MIAC's shot and they've lost 3 of 4 going into the conference tournament. I saw St. Thomas today and while they don't look unbeatable, they also are unlikely to beat themselves. Their FR #2 pitcher is big and throws hard, but was pretty wild today (7 BBs but only 1 run). They weren't playing a very good offensive team. I think Bethel ended up 3 games back or so.
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
Quote from: Just Bill on May 05, 2014, 11:24:20 AM
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
My mind is blown how this can be done for D-3 softball but not baseball.
I wouldn't want it that way. You could pretty much get to the Championship round on 2 pitchers, which is pretty much how it used to be but I think it's better now. If there was an expansion to 64 I'd prefer to see 8 8-team regionals and a reworking of the regions (rather than New York, New England and Mid Atlantic all being separate regions, just being Northeast I, II and III or something IMO would balance better; same with Central/Midwest I and II since those two regionals often seem to be close together anyway).
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 05, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on May 05, 2014, 11:24:20 AM
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
My mind is blown how this can be done for D-3 softball but not baseball.
Probably would have to give up a week of the regular season in order to do it. Division III has made sure every sport is done by Memorial Day (well, the Tuesday after in baseball's case). Super Regionals would push the tournament a week later.
Northern teams struggle to get their 40 games as it is. Pushing up the start of the season would make it even more difficult.
Predictions as of 5/5:
POOL A:
UW-Whitewater
Linfield
Webster
Heidelberg
Rowan
Cortland State
Southern Maine
Concordia (Ill.)
Amherst
St. Thomas
Buena Vista
Cal Lutheran
Trinity (Texas)
Salisbury
Augustana
Bridgewater (Va.)
Salem State
Endicott
Wooster
St. Scholastica
Concordia-Texas
Rochester
Keystone
Farmingdale State
Susquehanna
Adrian
Grinnell
St. Josephs (Maine)
Widener
Washington and Jefferson
Misericordia
La Roche
Castleton State
Anderson
MIT
Staten Island
Covenant
Haverford
Gallaudet
Mitchell
POOL B/C LOCKS:
Shenandoah
Moravian
Marietta
Emory
Eastern Connecticut
Case Western Reserve
UW-Stevens Point
Birmingham-Southern
POOL B/C LOOKING GOOD:
St. John Fisher
Ithaca
Kean
Rutgers-Camden
Tufts
BUBBLE (3 of these will be in if the remaining favorites win):
Baldwin-Wallace
Chapman
UW-La Crosse
Washington U.
Oswego State
Rhodes
Wartburg
Alvernia
Pacific Lutheran
North Park
Quote from: hickory_cornhusker on May 05, 2014, 02:25:24 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 05, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on May 05, 2014, 11:24:20 AM
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
My mind is blown how this can be done for D-3 softball but not baseball.
Probably would have to give up a week of the regular season in order to do it. Division III has made sure every sport is done by Memorial Day (well, the Tuesday after in baseball's case). Super Regionals would push the tournament a week later.
If they expanded to 64 teams for softball, where's Title IX when you need it? There are too many good teams sitting on the bubble that should get in. I like the idea of a 64 team draw but would scrap a super regional in favor of adding a couple days to an 8 team regional. Have all conference tourneys conclude on the Saturday before. Announce selections by Sunday. Start the Regionals on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. Finish it by Sunday or the same as now. When your team is sitting on the bubble like mine is, this plan works for me.
Quote from: Colorado on May 05, 2014, 06:00:37 PM
Quote from: hickory_cornhusker on May 05, 2014, 02:25:24 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 05, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on May 05, 2014, 11:24:20 AM
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
My mind is blown how this can be done for D-3 softball but not baseball.
Probably would have to give up a week of the regular season in order to do it. Division III has made sure every sport is done by Memorial Day (well, the Tuesday after in baseball's case). Super Regionals would push the tournament a week later.
If they expanded to 64 teams for softball, where's Title IX when you need it? There are too many good teams sitting on the bubble that should get in. I like the idea of a 64 team draw but would scrap a super regional in favor of adding a couple days to an 8 team regional. Have all conference tourneys conclude on the Saturday before. Announce selections by Sunday. Start the Regionals on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. Finish it by Sunday or the same as now. When your team is sitting on the bubble like mine is, this plan works for me.
The reason there are more teams in the softball tourney than the baseball tourney is because more schools sponsor softball than baseball. It is not a Title IX issue, as they are proportionately the same representation (I believe it is one team for every 6.5 schools who play).
Quote from: Just Bill on May 05, 2014, 11:24:20 AM
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
On closer inspection, I count 62 bids for Softball. The upper two brackets on the right side are "geographic proximity" brackets for Texas and the West Coast. UTTyler and Linfield get the byes but UTTyler and Redlands are hosting.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on May 05, 2014, 06:16:39 PM
Quote from: Colorado on May 05, 2014, 06:00:37 PM
Quote from: hickory_cornhusker on May 05, 2014, 02:25:24 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 05, 2014, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: Just Bill on May 05, 2014, 11:24:20 AM
Didn't realize D-III softball went to a new format this year:
http://i2.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/2014d3softballregionals.pdf
16 double-elimination regionals, and then 8 best-of-three super regionals to reach an 8-team World Series. I like it! Maybe for baseball too, someday?
My mind is blown how this can be done for D-3 softball but not baseball.
Probably would have to give up a week of the regular season in order to do it. Division III has made sure every sport is done by Memorial Day (well, the Tuesday after in baseball's case). Super Regionals would push the tournament a week later.
If they expanded to 64 teams for softball, where's Title IX when you need it? There are too many good teams sitting on the bubble that should get in. I like the idea of a 64 team draw but would scrap a super regional in favor of adding a couple days to an 8 team regional. Have all conference tourneys conclude on the Saturday before. Announce selections by Sunday. Start the Regionals on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. Finish it by Sunday or the same as now. When your team is sitting on the bubble like mine is, this plan works for me.
The reason there are more teams in the softball tourney than the baseball tourney is because more schools sponsor softball than baseball. It is not a Title IX issue, as they are proportionately the same representation (I believe it is one team for every 6.5 schools who play).
Mr Ypsi is correct!
Quote from: Spence on May 05, 2014, 01:30:05 AM
The LEC, OAC and WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but that doesn't happen every year, and if a spoiler team wins the conference tournament, with the way Pool C is filling up, nothing is assured even for these 3. Marietta winning the OAC by 2 games clear was certainly an interesting development that might change how the committee thinks about the teams in that league.
Interesting.... Going back to 2000 (just took a round year) the WIAC has put multiple teams in the Regionals, ten out of fourteen years. This includes 2008 when three teams (Oshkosh, Stevens Point, and Whitewater) got in. The only years the WIAC put in only one team since 2000 were in 2006 (Stevens Point,) 2004 (Whitewater,) 2002 (Stevens Point,) and 2000 (Whitewater.)
I'd say for the most part, it's usually a safe bet that the WIAC is going to put two teams in Regionals, especially looking at how things have played out over the last 10-15 years.
As far as your other comments, the WIAC has put four different teams (out of a possible seven) in Regionals, had three different teams win Regionals, and had two teams win Championships in the last twenty years.
If the WIAC isn't considered a "power conference" in baseball, I'm thinking there aren't any....
Just out of curiosity, how would the NJAC compare over that same time period?
There was a year recently when the NJAC had four bids.
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 07, 2014, 03:19:40 PM
There was a year recently when the NJAC had four bids.
Heck there was a World Series with four NJAC teams out of the six team final.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 05, 2014, 06:37:42 PM
Mr Ypsi is correct!
How often this can be said.
On topic is that the softball tourney is a week later than it was last year. The NCAA did not take away a week of games, but added a week to the end of the season. What this means is that it is unlikley that we will cover softball like we did last year. I was prepared to go to Texas for the softball finals but soon discovered softball is now the same weekend as baseball.
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 07, 2014, 04:05:22 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 07, 2014, 03:19:40 PM
There was a year recently when the NJAC had four bids.
Heck there was a World Series with four NJAC teams out of the six team final.
I thought it was an eight team final. Am I wrong, or did it used to be six?
Quote from: cubs on May 07, 2014, 12:47:56 PM
Quote from: Spence on May 05, 2014, 01:30:05 AM
The LEC, OAC and WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but that doesn't happen every year, and if a spoiler team wins the conference tournament, with the way Pool C is filling up, nothing is assured even for these 3. Marietta winning the OAC by 2 games clear was certainly an interesting development that might change how the committee thinks about the teams in that league.
Interesting.... Going back to 2000 (just took a round year) the WIAC has put multiple teams in the Regionals, ten out of fourteen years. This includes 2008 when three teams (Oshkosh, Stevens Point, and Whitewater) got in. The only years the WIAC put in only one team since 2000 were in 2006 (Stevens Point,) 2004 (Whitewater,) 2002 (Stevens Point,) and 2000 (Whitewater.)
I'd say for the most part, it's usually a safe bet that the WIAC is going to put two teams in Regionals, especially looking at how things have played out over the last 10-15 years.
As far as your other comments, the WIAC has put four different teams (out of a possible seven) in Regionals, had three different teams win Regionals, and had two teams win Championships in the last twenty years.
If the WIAC isn't considered a "power conference" in baseball, I'm thinking there aren't any....
Just out of curiosity, how would the NJAC compare over that same time period?
I don't think two teams make a conference, and that's pretty much what it's been lately. Though in the WIAC, 2 teams is close to half a league. And before that, it was every other year. I look at the number of bids that true power conferences in D1 get and I'm thinking you're right, there aren't any. Happy?
That said, I really don't think this is at all worth getting upset about.
Quote from: y_jack_lok on May 07, 2014, 06:02:59 PM
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 07, 2014, 04:05:22 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 07, 2014, 03:19:40 PM
There was a year recently when the NJAC had four bids.
Heck there was a World Series with four NJAC teams out of the six team final.
I thought it was an eight team final. Am I wrong, or did it used to be six?
I think it's been as small as four.
What year was the 4 NJAC teams? I knew of a year with 3 but not 4...which doesn't mean I'm saying there wasn't, just that I didn't know.
Quote from: y_jack_lok on May 07, 2014, 06:02:59 PM
I thought it was an eight team final. Am I wrong, or did it used to be six?
Go back far enough and it used to be FOUR! 1982 was the first year with six teams. 1991 was the first year with 8.
In 1983, there were two OAC teams who met in the championship game, which Marietta won handily over Otterbein.
1984 had Montclair St, Ramapo and Glassboro State (now Rowan).
That's the year I remembered as far as NJAC goes.
Quote from: Spence on May 07, 2014, 06:42:04 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 07, 2014, 12:47:56 PM
Quote from: Spence on May 05, 2014, 01:30:05 AM
The LEC, OAC and WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but that doesn't happen every year, and if a spoiler team wins the conference tournament, with the way Pool C is filling up, nothing is assured even for these 3. Marietta winning the OAC by 2 games clear was certainly an interesting development that might change how the committee thinks about the teams in that league.
Interesting.... Going back to 2000 (just took a round year) the WIAC has put multiple teams in the Regionals, ten out of fourteen years. This includes 2008 when three teams (Oshkosh, Stevens Point, and Whitewater) got in. The only years the WIAC put in only one team since 2000 were in 2006 (Stevens Point,) 2004 (Whitewater,) 2002 (Stevens Point,) and 2000 (Whitewater.)
I'd say for the most part, it's usually a safe bet that the WIAC is going to put two teams in Regionals, especially looking at how things have played out over the last 10-15 years.
As far as your other comments, the WIAC has put four different teams (out of a possible seven) in Regionals, had three different teams win Regionals, and had two teams win Championships in the last twenty years.
If the WIAC isn't considered a "power conference" in baseball, I'm thinking there aren't any....
Just out of curiosity, how would the NJAC compare over that same time period?
I don't think two teams make a conference, and that's pretty much what it's been lately. Though in the WIAC, 2 teams is close to half a league. And before that, it was every other year. I look at the number of bids that true power conferences in D1 get and I'm thinking you're right, there aren't any. Happy?
That said, I really don't think this is at all worth getting upset about.
Glad you feel that way, since four of the seven WIAC teams have made Regionals since 2007, a time period that has seen the WIAC qualify two teams for Regionals every year. That would seem to show it is more than a two team conference.
I suppose though when both Whitewater and Stevens Point have made Regionals six out of those seven years while Oshkosh and La Crosse have only made it twice and once respectively, it can seem like a two team league.
And by the way, not upset.... Just wanted some facts out there instead of strictly opinions.
I don't know what you think you're proving cherry picking time frames and criteria.
That's as dumb as saying the OAC is a power conference now because Otterbein won a couple of times in the last decade, even though they finished like 6th or whatever this year.
Why does everyone on the board feel like they have to take it personally because I don't fawn over their program/conference/kid? It's not an insult to say the NJAC is better than your league, because it's better than every league.
You want to make this a big thing? Come on, tempt me. I'm not in the mood to deal with it.
It would be interesting to see how many bids have been awarded overall since D3 began and compare that to how many each conference has earned... no way I have the time to calculate that.
Interesting, but not sure how relevant to today it would be. A lot of leagues would be accounted for by mostly one team, and Linfield and that league hasn't even been D3 that long.
Yeah I don't have time for it either. I've got like 3 things to do just in the next hour now that this game is over haha. In a slightly better mood after MC's come-from-behind win. Don't know if they'll make it or not, but BW could definitely compete in a regional.
Quote from: Spence on May 08, 2014, 03:01:43 PM
I don't know what you think you're proving cherry picking time frames and criteria.
That's as dumb as saying the OAC is a power conference now because Otterbein won a couple of times in the last decade, even though they finished like 6th or whatever this year.
Why does everyone on the board feel like they have to take it personally because I don't fawn over their program/conference/kid? It's not an insult to say the NJAC is better than your league, because it's better than every league.
You want to make this a big thing? Come on, tempt me. I'm not in the mood to deal with it.
The criteria I am picked are in response to your posts....
Anyway, you said the "WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but
that doesn't happen every year."
-I just responded saying that
since 2007 the WIAC has had two (or more) teams gets bids every year to show that recent history disagrees with your statement. Makes sense to use 2007 then doesn't it?
I know, I shouldn't let facts get in the way!!!
Quote from: cubs on May 08, 2014, 03:27:32 PM
Quote from: Spence on May 08, 2014, 03:01:43 PM
I don't know what you think you're proving cherry picking time frames and criteria.
That's as dumb as saying the OAC is a power conference now because Otterbein won a couple of times in the last decade, even though they finished like 6th or whatever this year.
Why does everyone on the board feel like they have to take it personally because I don't fawn over their program/conference/kid? It's not an insult to say the NJAC is better than your league, because it's better than every league.
You want to make this a big thing? Come on, tempt me. I'm not in the mood to deal with it.
The criteria I am picked are in response to your posts....
Anyway, you said the "WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but that doesn't happen every year."
-I just responded saying that since 2007 the WIAC has had two (or more) teams gets bids every year to show that recent history disagrees with your statement. Makes sense to use 2007 then doesn't it?
I know, I shouldn't let facts get in the way!!!
Yeah if you're cherry picking dates I guess it does.
No scholarships, artificially low tax subsidized tuition, 10k+ students going against mostly smaller schools in D-III, and still you've only got 2 programs really doing anything? Wow, super impressive.
I told you not to tempt me. You want me to start on admissions standards next?
glad to know it isnt just me
Quote from: Spence on May 08, 2014, 03:36:43 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 08, 2014, 03:27:32 PM
Quote from: Spence on May 08, 2014, 03:01:43 PM
I don't know what you think you're proving cherry picking time frames and criteria.
That's as dumb as saying the OAC is a power conference now because Otterbein won a couple of times in the last decade, even though they finished like 6th or whatever this year.
Why does everyone on the board feel like they have to take it personally because I don't fawn over their program/conference/kid? It's not an insult to say the NJAC is better than your league, because it's better than every league.
You want to make this a big thing? Come on, tempt me. I'm not in the mood to deal with it.
The criteria I am picked are in response to your posts....
Anyway, you said the "WIAC will very likely get 2 bids this year, but that doesn't happen every year."
-I just responded saying that since 2007 the WIAC has had two (or more) teams gets bids every year to show that recent history disagrees with your statement. Makes sense to use 2007 then doesn't it?
I know, I shouldn't let facts get in the way!!!
Yeah if you're cherry picking dates I guess it does.
No scholarships, artificially low tax subsidized tuition, 10k+ students going against mostly smaller schools in D-III, and still you've only got 2 programs really doing anything? Wow, super impressive.
I told you not to tempt me. You want me to start on admissions standards next?
No need to... Those of us regulars on the WIAC boards have heard the same whining for years, and years, and years.... The only difference is it would be coming from somebody different. It's only gotten worse with Whitewater winning both the Football and Men's Basketball National Championship's this year. I can only imagine how bad the crying would get if they happen to win the Baseball title again like they did in 2005.
Yeah crying, that's what it is. ::) Get back to me when a WIAC team has 6 championships and 13 title game appearances, with like 1/10 the enrollment. Cry about that. Not to mention that Wisconsin has what, 1 D-I baseball program and a couple of D-II? How the heck do you not make it every year with the whole danged state to pick from? Sure wish we had that in Ohio, instead of like 50 colleges to fight against.
Jeez...had no idea that making the very reasonable statement that D-III doesn't have power conferences like D-I does would be in any way controversial.
I cannot remember what year the Pool C bids increased because of the current March Madness contract.
I think that it was 2006 when the extra Pool C bids expanded from 4 to 12 to 14. We must consider that when looking at the number of Pool C bids that a conference receives.
There is no comparison between D1 and D3 in baseball. The economics are different.
Predictions as of New Regional Rankings:
POOL A IN
School | Conf | Region |
Linfield | NWC | W |
Rowan | NJAC | MA |
Cortland State | SUNYAC | NY |
Cal Lutheran | SCIAC | W |
Trinity (Texas) | SCAC | W |
Salisbury | CAC | S |
Bridgewater (Va.) | ODAC | S |
Farmingdale State | SKY | NY | |
Widener | MACC | MA | |
Endicott | CCC | NE | |
Susquehanna | LAND | MA | |
MIT | NEWMAC | NE | |
Misericordia | MACF | MA | |
Worcester State | MASCAC | NE | |
St. Josephs (Maine) | GNAC | NE | |
Castleton State | NAC | NE | |
Haverford | CC | MA | |
Covenant | USAC | S | |
Mitchell | NECC | NE | |
POOL A PREDICTIONS (LIKELY WOULD GET POOL C IF THEY LOST)
School | Conf | Region |
UW-Whitewater | WIAC | MW | |
Webster | SLIAC | C | |
Eastern Connecticut | LEC | NE | |
Marietta | OAC | ME | |
St. Thomas | MIAC | MW | |
Amherst | NESCAC | NE | |
Buena Vista | IIAC | C | |
Concordia (Ill.) | NATHC | MW | |
POOL A PREDICTIONS (POOL C CONTENDER IF THEY LOST)
Augustana | CCIW | C | |
Wooster | NCAC | ME | |
St. Scholastica | UMAC | MW | |
Concordia-Texas | ASC | W | |
Rochester | LL | NY | |
POOL A PREDICTIONS (WOULD NOT GET POOL C IF THEY LOST)
Ripon | MWC | C | |
Keystone | CSAC | MA | |
Adrian | MIAA | ME | |
La Roche | AMCC | ME | |
Washington and Jefferson | PrAC | ME | |
Anderson | HCAC | ME | |
Staten Island | CUNYAC | NY | |
Gallaudet | NEAC | S | |
POOL C LOCKS
School | Conf | Region |
Shenandoah | ODAC | S | |
Heidelberg | OAC | ME | |
UW-Stevens Point | WIAC | MW | |
Southern Maine | LEC | NE | |
Emory | UAA | S | |
Case Western Reserve | UAA | ME | |
Moravian | LAND | MA | |
Birmingham-Southern | SAA | S | |
Ithaca | E8 | NY | |
St. John Fisher | E8 | NY | |
Kean | NJAC | MA | |
POOL C CONTENDERS
School | Conf | Region |
Rutgers-Camden | NJAC | MA | |
Washington U. | UAA | C | |
Tufts | NESCAC | NE | |
George Fox | NWC | W | |
Baldwin-Wallace | OAC | ME | |
Salem State | MASCAC | NE | |
UW-La Crosse | WIAC | MW | |
Wartburg | IIAC | C | |
Rhodes | SAA | S | |
Brockport State | SUNYAC | NY | |
Chapman | SCIAC | W | |
Alvernia | MACC | MA | |
Illinois Wesleyan | CCIW | C | |
John Carroll | OAC | ME | |
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2014, 07:24:37 PM
I cannot remember what year the Pool C bids increased because of the current March Madness contract.
I think that it was 2006 when the extra Pool C bids expanded from 4 to 12 to 14.
Ugh those were the bad old days. Thank goodness that didn't last long.
...and Pool C is threatening to get even cloudier as Marietta and Heidelberg are both in the loser's bracket in the OAC tournament. One will have to battle their way out of it, and beat John Carroll twice on championship day to grab the Pool A bid. Otherwise, a lot of bubble teams will be holding their breath that the OAC doesn't get 3 bids (JCU, HEID, MAR).
Pool C teams MIGHT have dodged another bullet, as Whitewater scores four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and a solo run in the tenth inning, to defeat Stout 15-14 in the opening game of the WIAC Tournament....
I don't know if I've ever seen that high scoring of a first round game in a tournament of a "power conference" team. ;)
Maybe they just have "power" hitters and the pitching leaves something to be desired?
LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....
Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?
Quote from: cubs on May 09, 2014, 10:34:23 PM
LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....
Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?
We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.
Quote from: Spence on May 09, 2014, 10:48:22 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 09, 2014, 10:34:23 PM
LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....
Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?
We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.
Have been told they have a high SOS... Any idea where it ranks Nationally?
Quote from: Spence on May 09, 2014, 10:48:22 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 09, 2014, 10:34:23 PM
LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....
Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?
We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.
Not that that has anything to do with selection.
Stevens Point's SoS, which does, is #4 0.592
Thanks!!!!
You can find SoS on d3baseball.com under the news tab lots of other good stuff too.
http://www.d3baseball.com/seasons/2014/schedule?tmpl=sos-template
Both Point and Berg have really solid SOS numbers, as do a number of other teams in the OAC and WIAC. Just don't know if it would be enough vs. a team that also has a pretty good SOS and won their conference regular season, or really solid Pool Bs.
Marietta losing today further mucks up the situation as they split at Berg, won the league by 2 games, and did better (albeit not great) in the conference tournament.
One of the ways that this story could end up writing itself is by looking at regional rankings.
6 teams in Pool C that are either in now or likely to end up in the top 1/3 of their region's rankings (top 2 in 6-team, top 3 in 8+): Moravian, USM/ECSU, Kean, Marietta, Shenandoah, Ithaca, (Case Western), (Emory). UW-Whitewater may yet be added here.
6 teams in Pool C are likely to end up in the top half of their region's rankings: Augustana, Rutgers-Camden, Heidelberg (even with their flameout it's hard to see them going past 4th), Birmingham Southern, St. John Fisher, Baldwin Wallace.
So that's 12 of 14 that seem pretty likely. Maybe 13 if Whitewater falls (get it?).
In my spreadsheet I put question marks by the NE trio of Salem State, Tufts and Amherst, as well as UW-Stevens Point. Tufts beat Amherst today and Salem State is 4th in the RR right now and they really can't go anywhere but down. Amherst is 3rd but after today I'm guessing Tufts would be ahead of them and 5th place Endicott. But that could change tomorrow.
UWSP is currently 3rd, but lost their first tournament game and faces an elimination game. Concordia would likely jump them if they're eliminated and we haven't even talked about UW-La Crosse yet even though they finished ahead of SP in the conference.
Add Wash U, George Fox and Alvernia to the NESCAC and WIAC (and a bit of OAC if John Carroll wins in 1) intrigue and you probably have most of the teams battling for the final couple of spots.
Quote from: ADL70 on May 09, 2014, 11:37:00 PM
Quote from: Spence on May 09, 2014, 10:48:22 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 09, 2014, 10:34:23 PM
LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....
Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?
We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.
Not that that has anything to do with selection.
Stevens Point's SoS, which does, is #4 0.592
I bet it matters if the same teams that finish above you in the league finish better than you in the tournament. I imagine the coaches that mostly make up the committees would favor the team that did better in what every coach considers the most important games on their schedule: conference games.
Stevens Point loses, Wash U loses, Amherst loses, Augustana loses.
Does anyone actually want to be in this thing?
There will be a lot of Pool C hopefuls that have broken-hearts tomorrow and will be looking for someone to blame... I just hope they start by looking in the mirror.
Leaving it in the hands of the committee is a huge gamble (see U of Chicago who was #3 in the final rankings a few years ago and left out because the committee took the #4 team instead.)
That could happen again with a few teams that get leapfrogged in the final double secret probation rankings.
I don't see a way point makes regionals if lacrosse wins Wiac tourney. If lacrosse gets beat maybe point gets in but I don't see how. I'm not a big SOS guy and to be honest point only played good ball in Florida. Anyone who has seen there sloppy play lately would have a hard time seeing them get in.
Point did beat Lax 3 of 5, but I'm guessing common opponents would go to Lax.
If Lax doesn't win, are they in? And if they're not, does that mean Point isn't either?
I think this is probably going to be a really central issue for the committee, what you do with this.
My guess is point will get in if whitewater wins but I would argue lacrosse is more deserving even if points SOS is better. Lacrosse has played some great baseball the past month losing to whitewater doesn't count their going to win the World Series.
It's not like La Crosse has a low SOS either.
The committee could value SOS highly and put them both in. Really hard to tell what will happen with this.
The committee is more than likely going to have the what have u done for me lately mindset and who has point beaten lately other than stout Oshkosh ripon and two from platteville. I want point in more than anyone but could easily see them being left out. I'm too lazy to look right now but does point lead the nation in most runners picked off I swear every game it happens. They also have to be up there in hit batters. Seems to cost them all the time. The biggest problem by far though is catcher they need one badly next year and the lack of having even an average one is costing them dearly with the pitchers they have.
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 10, 2014, 05:42:37 PM
There will be a lot of Pool C hopefuls that have broken-hearts tomorrow and will be looking for someone to blame... I just hope they start by looking in the mirror.
Leaving it in the hands of the committee is a huge gamble (see U of Chicago who was #3 in the final rankings a few years ago and left out because the committee took the #4 team instead.)
You are exactly right. Win your Pool A bid or be ready to be done.
What do you guys think of Augustana's Pool C chances? When they went 1-2 in the CCIW tourney, I figured they were dead. But they are the highest ranked Pool C team in the Central (and despite the tourney, will likely stay there), and I have a hard time imagining the Central with zero Pool C selections.
Is questionable a good enough answer? Probably not. They're not in the first tier of Pool C's on my list, but obviously they're in the conversation after that
I've got a list of 10, 6 will get in. List could shrink to 9 if Tufts wins 2. Amount of bids up for grabs could shrink if St. Thomas loses two, but I think that's a pretty remote possibility.
Who's on your list?
I actually made it a little bigger and put fewer C's in more or less automatically.
The bubble I have, in completely random order especially because I made the list! is Augie, Salem State, Heidelberg, UWSP, UWL, Chapman, Tufts, Amherst, GFU, Baldwin Wallace, RU-Camden, Wash U, Rhodes, Ithaca, St. John Fisher, and Alvernia. I maybe should have added La Roche but didn't. They'll probably win in anyway.
7 spots available among that group of 16. Tufts can still win in.
Wouldn't there be 8 spots out of that list? (Assuming locks are Shenandoah, Southern Maine, Birmingham, Moravian, Kean, Marietta?)
Yeah I guess it would be. I had Emory in the C list rather than B.
My predictions for the field, assuming Tufts and La Roche win. Plenty of room for discussion about the last few Pool C bids, as always. For the teams I'm putting out of region, I tried to make them strong Pool C teams who had their conference winner in their home region. I think this is how it usually works out. Anybody know?
CENTRAL | Team | Conf | Pool |
C1 | Webster | SLIAC | A |
C2 | Buena Vista | IIAC | A |
C3 | Heidelberg | OAC | C |
C4 | Illinois Wesleyan | CCIW | A |
C5 | Augustana | CCIW | C |
C6 | St. Norbert | MWC | A |
MID ATLANTIC | Team | Conf | Pool |
MA1 | Rowan | NJAC | A |
MA2 | Moravian | LAND | C |
MA3 | Rutgers-Camden | NJAC | C |
MA4 | Susquehanna | LAND | A |
MA5 | Widener | MACC | A |
MA6 | Keystone | CSAC | A |
MA7 | Misericordia | MACF | A |
MA8 | Haverford | CC | A |
MID EAST | Team | Conf | Pool |
ME1 | Case Western Reserve | UAA | B |
ME2 | Amherst | NESCAC | C |
ME3 | Marietta | OAC | C |
ME4 | Adrian | MIAA | A |
ME5 | La Roche | AMCC | A |
ME6 | Rose-Hulman | HCAC | A |
ME7 | DePauw | NCAC | A |
ME8 | Thomas More | PrAC | A |
MID WEST | Team | Conf | Pool |
MW1 | UW-Whitewater | WIAC | A |
MW2 | St. Thomas | MIAC | A |
MW3 | Concordia (Ill.) | NATHC | A |
MW4 | UW-Stevens Point | WIAC | C |
MW5 | Kean | NJAC | C |
MW6 | St. Scholastica | UMAC | A |
NEW ENGLAND | Team | Conf | Pool |
NE1 | Eastern Connecticut | LEC | A |
NE2 | Tufts | NESCAC | A |
NE3 | Southern Maine | LEC | C |
NE4 | Endicott | CCC | A |
NE5 | MIT | NEWMAC | A |
NE6 | Worcester State | MASCAC | A |
NE7 | Mitchell | NECC | A |
NE8 | St. Josephs (Maine) | GNAC | A |
NEW YORK | Team | Conf | Pool |
NY1 | Cortland State | SUNYAC | A |
NY2 | St. John Fisher | E8 | C |
NY3 | Ithaca | E8 | C |
NY4 | Farmingdale State | SKY | A |
NY5 | Union | LL | A |
NY6 | Stevens | CUNYAC | A |
NY7 | Castleton State | NAC | A |
NY8 | SUNYIT | NEAC | A |
SOUTH | Team | Conf | Pool |
S1 | Shenandoah | ODAC | C |
S2 | Emory | UAA | B |
S3 | Birmingham-Southern | SAA | C |
S4 | Salisbury | CAC | A |
S5 | Bridgewater (Va.) | ODAC | A |
S6 | Covenant | USAC | A |
WEST | Team | Conf | Pool |
W1 | Linfield | NWC | A |
W2 | Cal Lutheran | SCIAC | A |
W3 | Trinity (Texas) | SCAC | A |
W4 | John Carroll | OAC | A |
W5 | George Fox | NWC | C |
W6 | Letourneau | ASC | A |
Last teams in:
Rutgers-Camden
Augustana
Kean
George Fox
First teams out:
Washington U. - Probably will get in if they jump Augustana in the regional rankings. I'm surprised they didn't last week.
Baldwin-Wallace - Two conference tourney losses hurt their Win% just enough.
UW-La Crosse - Two conference tourney losses hurt their Win% just enough.
Rhodes - Might take the spot I'm giving to Augustana/Washington U. in the Central but they have 3 Pool B/C teams ahead of them in the South.
Gettysburg - I'm surprised they've been out of the regional rankings.
Concordia (TX) - If they jump George Fox for some reason.
Wheaton (Mass.) - Two conference tourney losses hurt their Win% just enough.
Wooster - Two conference tourney losses hurt their Win% just enough.
^^^^ great analysis... One thing I would probably change would be Marietta staying in the Mideast regional because they are hosting it. Although as a fan, it would be exciting to see them fly out west to compete.
Nice job Johnny, I don't see Marietta coming West if they are hosting, but I agree it would be fun.
Prob Washington U, if they get in, based on travel. I thought GF was a 4 seed, but who knows. Based on pitching match ups today I agree that CTX wins the ASC
Great Job Johnny -- quick clarification in the Central region --- IWU won conference so they should be a pool A making Augastna a Pool C. Think that would change anything (Augustana is hosting)
Same with Tufts and Amherst. Amherst is out of the tournament and cannot be a Pool A.
Something a number of folks just might be missing: despite being in the same region, Salisbury is more than 500 miles from Demorest.
Given the number of other regions to which they can go without a flight, I would be surprised to see Salisbury in the South region. The only team from outside the south that can go to Demorest without a flight is Thomas More.
Shenandoah is also more than 500 miles away, but if they're slated to be the top seed in the region, they may just go ahead and fly the Hornets. Obviously, there is no shortage of places they can go inside of 500 miles, either.
I don'ts see any fly-ins to the West this year. Lets see if I am wrong or right.
This will be really interesting as Letu is up 6-0 over CTX in the 6th. I am curious how they seed teams. Does a conf winner get seeded above an at large team? I the west it may not matter as they will not match up teams from same conf. It would not surprise me to see a 6 seed fly in over chapman.
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on May 10, 2014, 11:22:37 PM
What do you guys think of Augustana's Pool C chances? When they went 1-2 in the CCIW tourney, I figured they were dead. But they are the highest ranked Pool C team in the Central (and despite the tourney, will likely stay there), and I have a hard time imagining the Central with zero Pool C selections.
I think they are in... cant remember a time when the CCIW regular season winner was left out? Conference carries some weight in the committee's eyes.
LeTu is in, they just beat CTX, first time in school history, congrats to the team, coaches and fans. Will be very exciting for them. Now the gnashing of teeth for GF, CTX and Chapman in the West.
Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 11, 2014, 04:31:43 PM
LeTu is in, they just beat CTX, first time in school history, congrats to the team, coaches and fans. Will be very exciting for them. Now the gnashing of teeth for GF, CTX and Chapman in the West.
I am going with this:
4. George Fox
5. LeTu
6. Fly in a Pool A from an upset conference
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 11, 2014, 04:37:47 PM
Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 11, 2014, 04:31:43 PM
LeTu is in, they just beat CTX, first time in school history, congrats to the team, coaches and fans. Will be very exciting for them. Now the gnashing of teeth for GF, CTX and Chapman in the West.
I am going with this:
4. George Fox
5. LeTu
6. Fly in a Pool A from an upset conference
Illinois Wesleyan?
JohnnyU has John Carroll?
So what time today should we expect the white smoke to rise from the chimney at the "secret selection meeting"?
11PM Eastern, or not.....
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 11, 2014, 04:44:56 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 11, 2014, 04:37:47 PM
Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 11, 2014, 04:31:43 PM
LeTu is in, they just beat CTX, first time in school history, congrats to the team, coaches and fans. Will be very exciting for them. Now the gnashing of teeth for GF, CTX and Chapman in the West.
I am going with this:
4. George Fox
5. LeTu
6. Fly in a Pool A from an upset conference
Illinois Wesleyan?
I would figure it will be someone close to a major airport so Illinois Wesleyan might be a good fit.
So how did the 14 Pool C teams do on opening day of Regionals today?
W: Shenandoah, Stevens Point, Baldwin Wallace, Kean, Southern Maine, Tufts, Amherst, Marietta
L: Heidelberg, La Crosse, Moravian, RU-Camden, Rhodes
Only Heidelberg and Moravian were seeded such that a loss is a real surprise from a seed perspective, and I would argue Moravian really isn't when you look at who pitched against them. Reasonable people can differ I guess about Heidelberg but they also faced a team that had a better #1 than they did (Berg really doesn't have one). La Crosse and Rhodes were lower seeds and Camden was a 4 against a 5 -- pretty much a wash.
All of the W's were higher seeds except Stevens Point, which was a 4 against a 3 -- also pretty much a wash.
Inc: Birmingham Southern
So really, there were few true surprises among Pool C's.
POOL C 2016I have lifted this from the 2016 Regional Rankings board
Updated thru 05/08/2016
My quick run at this:
Bold font is Pool A bid.
Blue font is highest regionally- ranked team in the conference.
Italics is Pool B.
(As always, corrections are appreciated.)
Status updated as of 05/08/2016. (Records have not been changed.)
Quote from: John McGraw on May 05, 2016, 04:16:16 PM
Rankings - Regional Rankings
Last Updated - May 5, 2016
Central Region
1 North Central (IL) 26-6-0 ( 0.813) 26-6-0 ( 0.813)
2 Wartburg 28-8-0 ( 0.778) 28-8-0 ( 0.778)
3 Buena Vista 26-8-0 ( 0.765) 26-8-0 ( 0.765)
4 Washington-St. Louis 27-16-0 ( 0.628) 28-16-0 ( 0.636)
5 Augustana (IL) 23-12-0 ( 0.657) 23-12-0 ( 0.657)
6 Webster 22-12-0 ( 0.647) 24-13-0 ( 0.649)
NR Midwest Conference
Mid-Atlantic Region
1 Misericordia 30-10-0 ( 0.750) 30-10-0 ( 0.750)
2 TCNJ 28-8-0 ( 0.778) 28-8-0 ( 0.778)
3 Keystone 27-8-0 ( 0.771) 27-8-0 ( 0.771)
4 Johns Hopkins 26-11-2 ( 0.692) 26-11-2 ( 0.692)
5 Ramapo 29-9-1 ( 0.756) 29-9-1 ( 0.756)
6 Kean 24-14-0 ( 0.632) 24-14-0 ( 0.632)
7 Haverford 24-12-0 ( 0.667) 24-12-0 ( 0.667)
8 Rutgers-Camden 23-14-0 ( 0.622) 23-14-0 ( 0.622)
NR Landmark Conference
NR MAC Commonwealth -- Widener
NR Northeast Athletic Conference (multi-region conference) Penn State - Berks
Mideast Region
1 La Roche 30-8-0 ( 0.789) 30-8-0 ( 0.789)
2 Marietta 22-13-0 ( 0.629) 22-13-0 ( 0.629)
3 Ohio Wesleyan 25-11-0 ( 0.694) 25-11-0 ( 0.694)
4 CWRU 26-13-0 ( 0.667) 26-13-0 ( 0.667)
5 Wooster 26-9-0 ( 0.743) 26-9-0 ( 0.743)
6 Rose-Hulman 23-9-0 ( 0.719) 23-9-0 ( 0.719)
7 Otterbein 24-7-0 ( 0.774) 25-7-0 ( 0.781)
8 Adrian 23-8-0 ( 0.742) 24-9-0 ( 0.727)
9 Denison 22-11-0 ( 0.667) 22-11-0 ( 0.667)
NR Presidents Athletic Conference
Midwest Region
1 Wis.-La Crosse 26-7-0 ( 0.788) 26-7-0 ( 0.788)
2 Concordia Chicago 28-9-0 ( 0.757) 28-9-0 ( 0.757)
3 Wis.-Whitewater 22-9-0 ( 0.710) 22-9-0 ( 0.710)
4 St. Thomas (MN) 23-9-0 ( 0.719) 23-9-0 ( 0.719)
5 Saint Mary's (MN) 22-11-1 ( 0.662) 22-12-1 ( 0.643)
6 Saint John's (MN) 25-9-0 ( 0.735) 25-10-0 ( 0.714)
NR Upper Midwest Athletic Conference
New England Region
1 Southern Me. 25-11-0 ( 0.694) 25-11-0 ( 0.694)
2 Wheaton (MA) 27-11-0 ( 0.711) 27-11-0 ( 0.711)
3 Western New Eng. 28-9-0 ( 0.757) 28-9-0 ( 0.757)
4 Amherst 21-10-0 ( 0.677) 21-10-0 ( 0.677)
5 UMass Boston 24-12-0 ( 0.667) 24-12-0 ( 0.667)
6 Endicott 25-13-0 ( 0.658) 25-13-0 ( 0.658)
7 MIT 20-13-0 ( 0.606) 20-13-0 ( 0.606)
8 Tufts 25-6-0 ( 0.806) 26-6-0 ( 0.813)
9 Mitchell 27-9-0 ( 0.750) 27-9-0 ( 0.750)
10 St. Joseph's (ME) 22-11-0 ( 0.667) 22-11-0 ( 0.667)
NR North Atlantic Conference -- Castleton St
NR GNAC -- Suffolk
NR Massachusetts State Collegiate Athletic Conference -- Salem State
New York Region
1 SUNY Cortland 34-5-0 ( 0.872) 34-5-0 ( 0.872)
2 Oswego St. 28-7-0 ( 0.800) 29-7-0 ( 0.806)
3 St. John Fisher 27-8-0 ( 0.771) 27-8-0 ( 0.771)
4 Stevens 24-13-0 ( 0.649) 24-13-0 ( 0.649)
5 Ithaca 20-14-0 ( 0.588) 20-14-0 ( 0.588)
6 Brockport 22-16-0 ( 0.579) 22-16-0 ( 0.579)
NR Liberty League
NR Skyline Conference
South Region
1 Emory 30-9-0 ( 0.769) 30-10-0 ( 0.750)
2 Birmingham-So. 35-11-0 ( 0.761) 37-11-0 ( 0.771)
3 Randolph-Macon 32-6-1 ( 0.833) 32-6-1 ( 0.833)
4 Salisbury 25-10-0 ( 0.714) 25-10-0 ( 0.714)
5 Shenandoah 32-9-0 ( 0.780) 32-9-0 ( 0.780)
6 Frostburg St. 27-10-0 ( 0.730) 27-10-0 ( 0.730)
NR Huntingdon
West Region
1 Trinity (TX) 33-7-0 ( 0.825) 35-7-0 ( 0.833)
2 Cal Lutheran 27-10-0 ( 0.730) 27-11-0 ( 0.711)
3 Whitworth 29-11-0 ( 0.725) 29-11-0 ( 0.725)
4 Concordia (TX) 24-13-0 ( 0.649) 27-13-0 ( 0.675)
5 Occidental 30-7-0 ( 0.811) 30-8-0 ( 0.789)
6 Texas Lutheran 26-15-0 ( 0.634) 26-15-0 ( 0.634)
NR Pacific Lutheran
Was looking at some of the possible Pool C teams and a lot of them have hurt their chances in a big way. It really appears to have softened the bubble quite a bit. It will be interesting to see how these conference tournaments finish up.
Webster 1-2
Ohio Wesleyan 0-2
Adrian 0-2
St. Thomas 0-2
Endicott 1-2
Western NE 0-2
Stevens 0-2
Augie, I think those are very relevant. I've done some messing about with the picks and to be honest, no one has a beef if they don't get in because I think there are plenty of spots for the teams that have truly earned it.
From that list, I have Endicott still in and Ohio Wesleyan and Stevens among the last few teams under discussion.
I did my list a bit differently though. I looked mainly at results (not record, necessarily) vs. regionally ranked a lot more than W-L, and SOS was only a marginal factor (because it can be heavily influenced by playing just a few games against really bad teams; there should be an adjustment for that like D1 hockey has). So, for instance, I didn't rate Oswego, Wartburg, Buena Vista or New Jersey nearly as high as they are in the regional rankings right now (which is subject to change in the final committee sort).
And though they didn't quite make it in, I probably had Otterbein a lot closer than most. They played North Central (Minneapolis) 3 times, one of the worst teams in the country, which severely hurts their SOS by itself. Otterbein had as many games vs. regionally ranked as many much higher SOS teams, and won several of them. But their only win over a top half of a region team (Marietta) is counterweighted by two losses against them, and losing to La Roche.
Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on May 14, 2016, 10:26:27 PM
Augie, I think those are very relevant. I've done some messing about with the picks and to be honest, no one has a beef if they don't get in because I think there are plenty of spots for the teams that have truly earned it.
From that list, I have Endicott still in and Ohio Wesleyan and Stevens among the last few teams under discussion.
I did my list a bit differently though. I looked mainly at results (not record, necessarily) vs. regionally ranked a lot more than W-L, and SOS was only a marginal factor (because it can be heavily influenced by playing just a few games against really bad teams; there should be an adjustment for that like D1 hockey has). So, for instance, I didn't rate Oswego, Wartburg, Buena Vista or New Jersey nearly as high as they are in the regional rankings right now (which is subject to change in the final committee sort).
And though they didn't quite make it in, I probably had Otterbein a lot closer than most. They played North Central (Minneapolis) 3 times, one of the worst teams in the country, which severely hurts their SOS by itself. Otterbein had as many games vs. regionally ranked as many much higher SOS teams, and won several of them. But their only win over a top half of a region team (Marietta) is counterweighted by two losses against them, and losing to La Roche.
I just figured out who you are ;D Welcome back!!! Been a long time, my friend! Too long!
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 15, 2016, 08:44:19 PM
Quote from: ElRetornodelEspencio on May 14, 2016, 10:26:27 PM
Augie, I think those are very relevant. I've done some messing about with the picks and to be honest, no one has a beef if they don't get in because I think there are plenty of spots for the teams that have truly earned it.
From that list, I have Endicott still in and Ohio Wesleyan and Stevens among the last few teams under discussion.
I did my list a bit differently though. I looked mainly at results (not record, necessarily) vs. regionally ranked a lot more than W-L, and SOS was only a marginal factor (because it can be heavily influenced by playing just a few games against really bad teams; there should be an adjustment for that like D1 hockey has). So, for instance, I didn't rate Oswego, Wartburg, Buena Vista or New Jersey nearly as high as they are in the regional rankings right now (which is subject to change in the final committee sort).
And though they didn't quite make it in, I probably had Otterbein a lot closer than most. They played North Central (Minneapolis) 3 times, one of the worst teams in the country, which severely hurts their SOS by itself. Otterbein had as many games vs. regionally ranked as many much higher SOS teams, and won several of them. But their only win over a top half of a region team (Marietta) is counterweighted by two losses against them, and losing to La Roche.
I just figured out who you are ;D Welcome back!!! Been a long time, my friend! Too long!
Haha well it wasn't exactly a disguise. Just trying to be a kinder, gentler me.
Looks like you have things going pretty well up there. Do you know if d3b is doing a mock selection?
Mock Selection should be up later tonight.
It's up now.
Suffice it to say, the crack mock team and I have some differences. :)
You all didn't adjust the rankings nearly as much is the main one. You're probably playing the percentages, but I'm hoping the national committee fixes a few things that I think have been off all year, and delivers justice to a few teams that frankly didn't help themselves much this week where others did.
We'll soon find out (relatively).
I have as many or more differences with the actual committee.
I have no idea what possible reasoning there could be for Endicott or Southern Maine being out.
I also have no idea what possible reasoning there could be for sending Marietta more than 500 miles (unless they were banking on Marietta not flying it, which they will not), or for knocking them all the way to a 4 seed when they've been #2 in their region basically all year, and keeping Wooster in region and making them a higher seed.
Those are just the beginning. I'm stunned by so much right now.
Welcome Back, I was truly Surprised that OWU got in. Happy but surprised. Losing two in the tourney like that, I thought several teams would jump them. I thought OWU would have to get the The championship game to have a shot. I think that if OWU was in the same spot last year they would not have gotten in. The Primary criteria must have been enough.
I didn't think so either but of course I'm glad they are. Definitely rooting for Coach Mott in the regional! TCNJ doesn't look to have a wipeout ace, so could be an opportunity to get one and then probably face La Roche.
Anyone willing to take a stab at who might be the deserving recipients of a Pool C bid this season based on where things stand with the Regional Rankings and Conference Tournament results?
Quote from: cubs on May 08, 2017, 02:32:26 PM
Anyone willing to take a stab at who might be the deserving recipients of a Pool C bid this season based on where things stand with the Regional Rankings and Conference Tournament results?
Birmingham Southern is probably tops on this list, along with Cortland. I think there are a few teams out West (Redlands and Concordia Texas) that are probably deserving that won't get a bid. Redlands has never been regionally ranked but they are definitely better than some of the teams that will be picked. (Obviously this is all my opinion)
U-Mass Boston or USM or both: ...They are the two best teams in New England
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 08, 2017, 05:46:16 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 08, 2017, 02:32:26 PM
Anyone willing to take a stab at who might be the deserving recipients of a Pool C bid this season based on where things stand with the Regional Rankings and Conference Tournament results?
Birmingham Southern is probably tops on this list, along with Cortland. I think there are a few teams out West (Redlands and Concordia Texas) that are probably deserving that won't get a bid. Redlands has never been regionally ranked but they are definitely better than some of the teams that will be picked. (Obviously this is all my opinion)
I agree the West seems to lose Pool C bids. Not sure what is so special of the outside the
West teams. Sorry I am not a big fan of the current SOS/OWP/OOWP system. I would prefer all teams stay within their region.
One would think Shenandoah University is basically a lock for an at-large bid.
Sources tell me that Randolph Macon is out of it and Washington and Lee has a slim shot.
Quote from: cubs on May 08, 2017, 02:32:26 PM
Anyone willing to take a stab at who might be the deserving recipients of a Pool C bid this season based on where things stand with the Regional Rankings and Conference Tournament results?
Too much tumult with all of the upsets in the conference tournaments for me to try before the 3rd Regional Ranking.
UTD is gone.
Concordia TX is done.
Roanoke messed up Pool C big time.
We may have gotten lucky with Oswego getting the bid without the tourney in the SUNYAC. That may have saved Cortland from some losses.
Only half of the Pool C hopefuls truly have a shot at one... about half the Pool C conferences don't go the way they are seeded and the lower half of the Pool C bids are lost in the process...
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 10, 2017, 12:34:52 PM
Quote from: cubs on May 08, 2017, 02:32:26 PM
Anyone willing to take a stab at who might be the deserving recipients of a Pool C bid this season based on where things stand with the Regional Rankings and Conference Tournament results?
Too much tumult with all of the upsets in the conference tournaments for me to try before the 3rd Regional Ranking.
UTD is gone.
Concordia TX is done.
Roanoke messed up Pool C big time.
We may have gotten lucky with Oswego getting the bid without the tourney in the SUNYAC. That may have saved Cortland from some losses.
Not sure that CTX is done. There are a lot of team that will get two losses this weekend. They are definitely a bubble team.
My annual rant on Pool B/C bis I sure nobody agrees with me
1) Combine Pool B/Pool C bids
2) Throw out OWP/OOWP
3) Take rankings out of committee
4) Use some type of computer ranking system
5) Keep teams in the own regions
6) Keep Dreaming never happen
Congrats to all teams who make it to the regionals. I saw 5 regionals and 4 DIII championship series. Unbelievable life time experience
Quote from: SoCalBaseballfan on May 10, 2017, 08:06:30 PM
My annual rant on Pool B/C bis I sure nobody agrees with me
1) Combine Pool B/Pool C bids
2) Throw out OWP/OOWP
3) Take rankings out of committee
4) Use some type of computer ranking system
5) Keep teams in the own regions
6) Keep Dreaming never happen
Congrats to all teams who make it to the regionals. I saw 5 regionals and 4 DIII championship series. Unbelievable life time experience
Give an automatic bid to the CUNYAC and one to UAA and you get rid of Pool B
The push to move teams out of region in the regionals is a fairly recent phenomenon. Although that does not explain how four NJAC teams played in the 84 World Series.
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 10, 2017, 11:34:15 PM
Quote from: SoCalBaseballfan on May 10, 2017, 08:06:30 PM
My annual rant on Pool B/C bis I sure nobody agrees with me
1) Combine Pool B/Pool C bids
2) Throw out OWP/OOWP
3) Take rankings out of committee
4) Use some type of computer ranking system
5) Keep teams in the own regions
6) Keep Dreaming never happen
Congrats to all teams who make it to the regionals. I saw 5 regionals and 4 DIII championship series. Unbelievable life time experience
Give an automatic bid to the CUNYAC and one to UAA and you get rid of Pool B
The push to move teams out of region in the regionals is a fairly recent phenomenon. Although that does not explain how four NJAC teams played in the 84 World Series.
We might have the CUNYAC with a Pool A bid in 2019 or 2020, if they pull off the affiliations of Finlandia and Maine Presque Isle.
May 11 Reg'l Rankings attached.
http://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2017/2017-regional-rankings-week-3
Here's our projected playoff field:
http://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2017/2017-playoff-projections
Well.... who are the Pool C locks? Any bubble teams have to be sweating it out seeing Wooster and Cortland State fall into Pool C.
Randolph-Macon also falls into Pool C and Concordia-Chicago needs to win 3 today to avoid that same fate. The committee will have some tough decisions.
So those are 4 Pool C locks... and 4 bubble teams are pushed out. Bye-Bye WashU? Redlands? Carthage? Stevens Point?
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 13, 2018, 03:41:39 PM
So those are 4 Pool C locks... and 4 bubble teams are pushed out. Bye-Bye WashU? Redlands? Carthage? Stevens Point?
No chance Redlands is pushed out, I would think they are #2 in the West and the first Pool C in the West.
How'd the committee do? Other than locations, any surprises?
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 13, 2018, 03:41:39 PM
So those are 4 Pool C locks... and 4 bubble teams are pushed out. Bye-Bye WashU? Redlands? Carthage? Stevens Point?
Stevens Point was out when they lost 6 of their last 8 games, and that doesn't even include a DH sweep to Stout... This weekend's results were a non-factor in my opinion.
Quote from: BigPoppa on May 14, 2018, 07:40:11 AM
How'd the committee do? Other than locations, any surprises?
I am ecstatic that the NCAA recognized the strength of the West Region, 3 National Champions in the last 5 years, and the West Regional games have had very few blowouts. UT-Tyler was the surprise for me.
D3baseball.com went with Wartburg and Rutgers-Camden.
The NCAA went with UT-Tyler and Virginia Wesleyan.
It's like Christmas morning for D3 baseball fans.... here we go!
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 14, 2018, 10:18:43 AM
D3baseball.com went with Wartburg and Rutgers-Camden.
The NCAA went with UT-Tyler and Virginia Wesleyan.
#3 seed UTT beat #6 Pool A Aurora in the Central.
#4 seed VWC lost to #5 seed Misericordia in the Mid-Atlantic.
Later today I will update Pool C teams as the performed on Day #1. Here is the press release.
http://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2018/regional-rankings-final
May 15, 2018
Final regional rankings
These are the final regional rankings, the ones the NCAA committee used to select the at-large teams.
In this presentation, we've bolded the teams picked as at-large selections to the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Automatic qualifiers are noted with asterisks, and Pool B teams with pound signs.
The teams left on the table at the end of the selection process: Wartburg, Rutgers-Camden, Case Western Reserve, St. John's, Salve Regina, St. John Fisher, Methodist and La Verne.
Central School vs. D-III Overall
1. Webster * 36-8 36-8
2. North Central (Ill.) * 28-12 28-12
3. Wartburg 26-13 26-13
4. Dubuque * 24-15 24-15
5. Carthage 30-11 31-12
6. Washington U. 21-14 21-14
7. Spalding 31-12 31-12
8. Loras 25-14 25-15
Mid-Atlantic
1. Rowan * 33-9 33-9
2. TCNJ 28-9 28-9 WvC; LvC; LvA (1-2)
3. Keystone * 32-10 32-10
4. Ramapo 32-13 32-13 WvA; LvA; WvA; WvA; LvA (3-2)
5. Arcadia * 30-14 30-14
6. Alvernia 28-13 28-13 LvC
7. Rutgers-Camden 27-16 27-16
8. Misericordia * 31-12 31-12
9. Swarthmore * 33-9 33-9
10. Johns Hopkins 29-14 29-14
11. DeSales 29-15 29-15
12. Penn State-Harrisburg 31-14 31-14
Mideast
1. Wooster 36-8 36-8 W
2. Denison 32-10 32-10 LvC
3. Otterbein 30-14 30-14 L
4. La Roche * 34-8-1 34-8-1
5. Baldwin Wallace * 31-12 31-12
6. Marietta 27-16 27-16 L
7. Adrian * 33-10 33-10
8. Franklin * 38-3 38-3
9. Case Western Reserve 29-10 29-10
10. Heidelberg 27-13 27-13
11. Washington & Jefferson 28-14-1 28-16-1
12. Wabash * 28-14 28-15
13. Ohio Northern 27-15 27-15
Midwest
1. Concordia-Chicago 33-11 33-12 W
2. UW-Whitewater # 31-6 31-6 W
3. UW-Oshkosh # 31-8 31-8 W
4. Bethel * 32-9 32-9
5. St. John's 33-8 33-8
6. UW-Stevens Point 24-14 24-14
7. UW-La Crosse 24-15 24-15
8. Aurora * 30-13 30-13
New England
1. Mass-Boston * 34-8 34-8
2. Babson * 32-10 32-10
3. Southern Maine 27-13 27-13 W
4. Western New England * 31-13 31-13
5. Salve Regina 25-15 25-15
6. Endicott 27-17 27-17
7. Eastern Connecticut 24-15 25-16
8. Mass-Dartmouth 25-15 25-15
9. Wheaton (Mass.) 23-17 23-17
10. Clark 26-13 26-13
11. MIT 19-14 19-14
12. Mitchell * 28-7 30-8
13. Suffolk * 25-17 25-17
14. Amherst * 23-12 24-12
New York
1. Cortland 32-10 32-10 W
2. Oswego State * 26-12 26-12
3. St. John Fisher 29-16 29-16
4. Ithaca * 28-15 28-15
5. Stevens 26-17 26-17
6. Union * 30-11 30-11
7. St. Joseph's (L.I.) * 26-16 26-16
8. Farmingdale State 24-14 24-14
9. Merchant Marine 28-13 28-14
South
1. Randolph-Macon 31-7-1 31-7-1 W
2. Salisbury * 33-10 33-10
3. Christopher Newport 32-10 32-10 WvC
4. Virginia Wesleyan 28-14 28-14 L
5. Methodist 30-11 32-12
6. Berry 29-13 29-13
7. Piedmont 28-14 30-14
8. Rhodes * 27-13 29-14
9. Shenandoah * 34-10 34-10
West
1. Chapman * 34-11 34-11
2. Redlands 33-11 33-11 L
3. Concordia (Texas) 29-16 29-16 L
4. Texas-Tyler 29-16 29-16 W
5. Texas Lutheran * 34-9 34-9
6. La Verne 29-14 29-14
7. Trinity (Texas) 29-9 33-9
8. Texas-Dallas * 29-14 30-15
WvC = Win versus a Pool C team
LvC = Loss versus a Pool C team
Pool C teams went 7-5 against Pool A teams.
Pool C TCNJ beat Pool C Alvernia
Pool C CNU beat Pool C Denison
Overall on Day 1 Pool C went 9-7.
Pool B went 2-0.
Second Round
Pool C CNU beat Pool C TCNJ
Third Round
Pool A LaGrange beat Pool C TCNJ TCNJ out at 1-2
...more later...
The conference tourneys began this week.
We have our first potential 'bubble buster" game in the USA South finals.
Greensboro has come through the consolation bracket to face LaGrange.
LaGrange needs one win to earn the Pool A bid.
https://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2019/playoff-central
LaGrange 7 Greensboro 5. LaGrange gets the Pool A bid and the bubble is preserved.
First Regional Rankings
South In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Salisbury 26-6-1 26-6-1 Capital AC
2 Birmingham Southern 29-11 29-11 SAA Advanced to the SAA finals on Tyler Wise's 3-run walk-off to left field to beat Oglethorpe 4-3.
3 Christopher Newport 27-4 27-4 Capital AC
4 LaGrange 24-8 26-9 USA South
5 Piedmont 25-7 29-8 USA South Went 0-2 in USA South tourney
6 Hendrix 28-11 28-12 SAA
7 Rhodes 22-16 23-17 Beats Hendrix to advance to the SAA Finals
8 Berry 27-13 27-13 SAA
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 27, 2019, 09:59:50 PM
The conference tourneys began this week.
We have our first potential 'bubble buster" game in the USA South finals.
Greensboro has come through the consolation bracket to face LaGrange.
LaGrange needs one win to earn the Pool A bid.
https://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2019/playoff-central
Piedmont played their way out of a Pool C shot in this tourney. Rough way to end the year for a good team, but that will happen to plenty of others around the nation.
Never assume you will get a Pool C. Win your way in or you have no beef with being left out.
Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 28, 2019, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 27, 2019, 09:59:50 PM
The conference tourneys began this week.
We have our first potential 'bubble buster" game in the USA South finals.
Greensboro has come through the consolation bracket to face LaGrange.
LaGrange needs one win to earn the Pool A bid.
https://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2019/playoff-central
Piedmont played their way out of a Pool C shot in this tourney. Rough way to end the year for a good team, but that will happen to plenty of others around the nation.
Here is Piedmont's record against RRO's from the first week of the season (3-7).
Wins - Berry LaGrange Cortland
Losses - Cal Lu; Chapman, Adrian, LaGrange (2), Berry, B-SC
Found this quote to be interesting regarding Swarthmore not making their conference tournament.
"Seventh-year head coach Matt Midkiff is attempting to schedule a few more games for his team with hope that it will get them an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Swarthmore's season could be over without making it to the College World Series like last season, but the team won 23 games this year."
Swarthmore was not in the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings last week and I'm not sure why there would be any thought that playing (and having to win) a few more games would vault them high enough to even be considered.
Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 29, 2019, 08:47:50 PM
Found this quote to be interesting regarding Swarthmore not making their conference tournament.
"Seventh-year head coach Matt Midkiff is attempting to schedule a few more games for his team with hope that it will get them an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Swarthmore's season could be over without making it to the College World Series like last season, but the team won 23 games this year."
Swarthmore was not in the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings last week and I'm not sure why there would be any thought that playing (and having to win) a few more games would vault them high enough to even be considered.
They had a good week and might sneak in. There are plenty of teams that are free next week that are regionaly ranked. If I won the MACC a mid week game with Swarthmore would help keep my kids focused. Playing and winning against 2-3 regionally ranked opponents might just be the thin the Garnet needs. Also the last 25% of games count more than those at the beginning of the season.
The other option is to shut the program down but I think having tasted post season, Swarthmore wants some more.
Quote from: Jim Dixon on April 30, 2019, 01:58:25 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 29, 2019, 08:47:50 PM
Found this quote to be interesting regarding Swarthmore not making their conference tournament.
"Seventh-year head coach Matt Midkiff is attempting to schedule a few more games for his team with hope that it will get them an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Swarthmore's season could be over without making it to the College World Series like last season, but the team won 23 games this year."
Swarthmore was not in the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings last week and I'm not sure why there would be any thought that playing (and having to win) a few more games would vault them high enough to even be considered.
They had a good week and might sneak in. There are plenty of teams that are free next week that are regionaly ranked. If I won the MACC a mid week game with Swarthmore would help keep my kids focused. Playing and winning against 2-3 regionally ranked opponents might just be the thin the Garnet needs. Also the last 25% of games count more than those at the beginning of the season.
The other option is to shut the program down but I think having tasted post season, Swarthmore wants some more.
I was unaware about the weighted last 25% of the season. I understand what you are saying, but going from unranked to high in the RR seems like a bit of a stretch to me. I guess we will see tomorrow.
Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 30, 2019, 10:03:56 PM
I was unaware about the weighted last 25% of the season. I understand what you are saying, but going from unranked to high in the RR seems like a bit of a stretch to me. I guess we will see tomorrow.
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/baseball/d3/2018-19D3MBA_PreChampsManual.pdf
Swarthmore will need the RR teams to win their tournament, giving more Pool C chances. A lot of teams have two regional losses coming if they play in their conf double elimination tournament and more likely than not, against regionally ranked opponents.
It is a stretch but you can be proactive or just accept your fate.
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 01, 2019, 12:56:38 PM
Swarthmore will need the RR teams to win their tournament, giving more Pool C chances. A lot of teams have two regional losses coming if they play in their conf double elimination tournament and more likely than not, against regionally ranked opponents.
It is a stretch but you can be proactive or just accept your fate.
As mentioned before, the recent wins push Swarthmore into the 12 spot in the RR. Going to need serious help, but it definitely gives hope.
I am starting an ongoing list of "bubble-busters".
Please copy and add to the list if you think the outcome of a conference tourney as added to the list of "bubble-busters".
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
In the USA South, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2019, 01:40:34 AM
I am starting an ongoing list of "bubble-busters".
Please copy and add to the list if you think the outcome of a conference tourney as added to the list of "bubble-busters".
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
In the USA South, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
If USM doesn't win the LEC tourney, they are a shoo in for a Bid...You got to think the same thing for Babson if they don't win the NEMAC...
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2019, 01:40:34 AM
In the USA South, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
The USA South is unlikely to get two bids as the highest regionally ranked team is Piedmont at #7 in the South and Methodist never made the regional rankings.
The CAC could (well should) get three teams. PSH is #5 in the Mid-Atlantic (35th SOS) behind teams with playoff bids (TCNJ, JHU) and can possibly leap frog Kean to #4 today. Rowan should get a Pool C early in the selection process giving PSH a shot if they do not win the CAC. It is hard to imagine Salisbury and CNU not making the playoffs in Pool C if it comes to that.
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 08, 2019, 12:31:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2019, 01:40:34 AM
In the USA South, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
The USA South is unlikely to get two bids as the highest regionally ranked team is Piedmont at #7 in the South and Methodist never made the regional rankings.
The CAC could (well should) get three teams. PSH is #5 in the Mid-Atlantic (35th SOS) behind teams with playoff bids (TCNJ, JHU) and can possibly leap frog Kean to #4 today. Rowan should get a Pool C early in the selection process giving PSH a shot if they do not win the CAC. It is hard to imagine Salisbury and CNU not making the playoffs in Pool C if it comes to that.
...my bad! CAC
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2019, 01:40:34 AM
I am starting an ongoing list of "bubble-busters".
Please copy and add to the list if you think the outcome of a conference tourney as added to the list of "bubble-busters".
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
In the USA South, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
Babson maybe Wheaton: NEMAC Pool A goes to MIT
Quote from: hockeyfan77 on May 08, 2019, 11:21:09 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2019, 01:40:34 AM
I am starting an ongoing list of "bubble-busters".
Please copy and add to the list if you think the outcome of a conference tourney as added to the list of "bubble-busters".
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
In the USA South, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
Babson maybe Wheaton: NEMAC Pool A goes to MIT
Add Salisbury but only if PSH wins since both Salisbury and CNU are playoff bound with or without CAC title
Add Trinity (Conn.) - missed their tournament so they will not get wins but no losses so they should maintain their top regional ranking.
A Rowan but then it was likley that both TCNJ and Rowan were going to make it.
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 10, 2019, 12:41:00 PM
Quote from: hockeyfan77 on May 08, 2019, 11:21:09 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2019, 01:40:34 AM
I am starting an ongoing list of "bubble-busters".
Please copy and add to the list if you think the outcome of a conference tourney as added to the list of "bubble-busters".
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
In the USA South CAC, I thought the conference would get 2 bids for CNU and Salisbury. I don't see a bubble busted unless PSU Harrisburg's performance boosts them in the Regional Rankings.
Cortland State - SUNYAC whose Pool A bid goes to Oswego
Babson maybe Wheaton: NEMAC Pool A goes to MIT
Add Salisbury but only if PSH wins since both Salisbury and CNU are playoff bound with or without CAC title
Add Trinity (Conn.) - missed their tournament so they will not get wins but no losses so they should maintain their top regional ranking.
Add Rowan but then it was likley that both TCNJ and Rowan were going to make it.
CTX wins the Pool A bid from the ASC.
haven't really been following the Pool C scene in baseball this season...Cortland, Fisher, yes, no, maybe? Merchant Marine have even a slight chance?
Quote from: Caz Bombers on May 11, 2019, 05:34:22 PM
haven't really been following the Pool C scene in baseball this season...Cortland, Fisher, yes, no, maybe? Merchant Marine have even a slight chance?
Cortland and Fisher are likely, Merchant Marine is not.
Odds that both Whitewater and La Crosse both earn a Pool C bid if Whitewater doesn't get one of the Pool B bids?
What team could possibly keep UWW from B? Not Lax or CWRU
Seems to me that WashU and UWW are locks for B
Agree with ADL...WashU and Whitewater should be Pool B locks. The question becomes whether they will both host? I believe they both will host.
read the D3baseball.com prediction. Pool B: wash U and UWW
Quote from: Jim Dixon on May 12, 2019, 06:36:50 PM
read the D3baseball.com prediction. Pool B: wash U and UWW
https://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2019/2019-playoff-projections
For archival purposes...
Coe instead of Ramapo
Wooster instead of Hendrix
Baldwin-Wallace instead of UW-LaCrosse
Quote from: ADL70 on May 12, 2019, 11:27:50 AM
What team could possibly keep UWW from B? Not Lax or CWRU
Seems to me that WashU and UWW are locks for B
I wasn't sure if the advantage that Case Western Reserve had in terms of their SOS might be enough to "trump" the difference in records. Based on what the staff put out in their projections, apparently it doesn't....
Pool C
Babson
Concordia-Chicago
Cortland
Rowan
Salisbury
Southern Maine
Trinity CT
Wheaton MA
Heidelberg
Kean
Texas Lutheran
CWRU
Wooster
Penn State - Harrisburg
Baldwin Wallace
Coe
Disappointed to see La Crosse left on the outside looking in this year.... I really would have liked to see how the trio of Pronchinske/McMahon/Cook would have done in the new four-team Regional format and possibly Super Regionals.
Pool C Performance in the Regionals
Team | Reg. Record | . | . | . | . | . | ...... | Super Regional | . | . | . | Natls |
Babson | 3-1 | WvA | WvC | LvC | WvC | . | . | Cortland | WvC | WvC | . | JHU |
Concordia-Chicago | 3-1 | WvA | LvC | WvA | WvC | . | . | Webster | LvA | LvA | . | . |
Cortland | 3-0 | WvA | WvA | WvA | . | . | . | Babson | LvC | LvC | . | . |
Rowan | 2-2 | WvA | LvA | WvC | LvA | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
. | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Salisbury | 1-2 | LvA | WvA | LvC | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Southern Maine | 3-2 | LvA | WvA | WvA | WvA | LvA | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Trinity CT | 3-2 | WvA | LvC | WvA | WvC | LvC | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Wheaton MA | 2-2 | WvA | LvA | WvA | LvA | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
. | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Heidelberg | 3-0 | WvA | WvA | WvA | . | . | . | Wooster | WvC | WvC | . | B-SC |
Kean | 2-2 | WvA | WvA | LvA | LvA | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Texas Lutheran | 0-2 | LvA | LvA | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
CWRU | 2-2 | WvA | WvA | LvC | LvC | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
. | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Wooster | 3-1 | LvA | WvA | WvC | WvC | . | . | Heidelberg | LvC | LvC | . | . |
PSU-Harrisburg | 1-2 | LvA | WvA | LvA | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Baldwin-Wallace | 2-2 | WvA | WvC | LvC | LvC | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Coe | 3-1 | WvA | WvB | LvB | WvB | . | . | B-SC | LvA | LvA | . | . |
. | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
Total | 36-24 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 6 teams | 4-8 | . | . | . |
Pool C record in RegionalsPool C versus Pool A 26-15
Pool C versus Pool B 2-1
Pool C versus Pool C
8-8Total 36-24
Pool C record in Super-RegionalsPool C versus Pool A 0-4
Pool C versus Pool C 4-4
I think you would see this is similar to other years. If you just look at pool As from conferences that got pool C bids. I expect the results would be closer to even
Pool C is starting to fill up again this year. The Post season tourneys are determining Pool A bids. (Pool A bids in bold)
SAA - Birmingham-Southern knocked off ranked Berry.
SCAC - Texas Lutheran knocked off Trinity TX.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional-rankings
Central In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Washington U. in St. Louis 24-3 24-3
2 North Central (Illinois) 26-6 26-6
3 Augustana (Illinois) 26-6 26-6
4 Webster 26-6 26-6
5 Coe 25-4 25-4
6 Spalding 22-10 23-12
7 Millikin 20-11 20-11
8 Luther 24-8 24-8
.
Mid-Atlantic In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Penn St.-Abington 18-3 18-3
2 Rowan 19-3 19-3
3 Keystone 17-4 17-4
4 Penn St. Harrisburg 24-6 24-6
5 York (Pennsylvania) 24-6 24-6
6 Immaculata 17-4 17-4
7 DeSales 22-7 22-7
8 Marymount (Virginia) 15-4 15-4
9 Stevens 21-9 21-9
10 Misericordia 23-7 23-7
UR Johns Hopkins Centennial 11-3 11-3
.
Mideast In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Adrian 24-6 24-6
2 Washington and Jefferson 31-1 31-1
3 Denison 19-10 19-10
4 Mount Union 24-6 24-6
5 Transylvania 24-9 24-9
6 Marietta 21-3 21-3
7 Wooster 20-8 20-8
8 Case Western Reserve 18-8 18-8
9 La Roche 15-1 15-1
10 Ohio Northern 18-13 18-13
.
Midwest In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Wisconsin-Whitewater 25-4 25-4
2 Gustavus Adolphus 18-3 18-3
3 St. Thomas (Minnesota) 18-5 18-5
4 Aurora 30-4 30-4
5 Northwestern-St. Paul 24-5 25-8
6 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 22-7 22-7
7 Saint John's (Minnesota) 25-8 25-8
8 Saint Mary's (Minnesota) 21-10 21-10
.
New England In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Eastern Connecticut St. 26-4 26-4
2 Southern Maine 19-8 19-8
3 Wheaton (Massachusetts) 12-2 12-2
4 Babson 10-2 10-2
5 Rhode Island 19-8 19-8
6 Tufts 10-3 10-3
7 Salve Regina 10-4-2001 10-4-2001
8 Mitchell- NECC 16-4 19-6
9 Endicott 15-6 15-6
10 Roger Williams 20-11 20-11
11 Amherst 8-3 8-3
UR Johnson & Wales GNAC 12-13 7-5
.
New York In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Oswego State 17-1 17-1
2 SUNY Brockport 13-4 13-4
3 Rochester (New York) 20-7 20-7
4 SUNY Cortland 20-4 20-4
5 St. John Fisher 24-5 24-5
6 St. Joseph's (Long Island) 15-7 15-7
7 Merchant Marine- Skyline 13-3 13-3
.
South In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Salisbury 19-3 19-3
2 N.C. Wesleyan 29-6 29-6
3 Berry 32-9 32-9
4 Shenandoah 26-8 26-8
5 LaGrange 20-7 20-7
6 Randolph-Macon 22-9 22-9
7 Christopher Newport 18-8 18-8
8 Birmingham Southern- SAA 25-14 25-14
.
West In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Trinity (Texas) 22-5 25-5
2 Centenary (Louisiana) 27-9 30-9
3 Pacific (Oregon) 25-11 25-11
4 Texas-Dallas 23-10 24-10
5 Texas Lutheran- SCAC 21-9 25-11
6 Williamette 27-13 27-13
7 East Texas Baptist 22-13 26-14
Third Regional Rankings (Remember, only 6 Pool B/C bids)
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional-rankings
18 conferences have awarded their Pool A bid (in Bold).
There are 24 to go.
Central In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Washington U. in St. Louis 28-3 28-3
2 North Central (Illinois) 33-7 33-7
3 Augustana (Illinois) 33-7 33-7
4 Webster 33-6 33-6
5 Coe 32-5 32-5
6 Spalding 28-11 29-13
7 Millikin 27-13 27-13
8 Luther 27-13 27-13
.
Mid-Atlantic In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Rowan 23-4 23-4
2 Keystone 21-4 21-4 CSAC
3 Penn St. Harrisburg 28-7 28-7 NEAC
4 York (Pennsylvania) 28-6 28-6 Commonwealth
5 Penn St.-Abington 20-6 20-6
6 Marymount (Virginia) 17-5 17-5
7 Misericordia 26-8 26-8 Freedom
8 Immaculata 18-5 18-5
9 Stevens 24-11 24-11
10 William Patterson 27-6 27-6
NR Johns Hopkins Centennial
.
Mideast In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Adrian 30-7 30-7
2 Washington and Jefferson 36-1 36-1 Pres AC
3 Marietta 32-4 32-4
4 Denison 21-10 21-10
5 Wooster 24-11 24-11
6 Transylvania 28-10 28-10
7 Mount Union 27-11 27-11
8 Case Western Reserve 20-10 20-10
9 La Roche 19-1 19-1
10 Franklin 25-12 25-12
.
Midwest In-Division Record Overall Record
1 St. Thomas (Minnesota) 26-5 26-5
2 Wisconsin-Whitewater 34-5 34-5
3 Gustavus Adolphus 26-5 26-5
4 Aurora 35-6 35-6
5 Northwestern-St. Paul 28-7 29-10
6 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 30-9 30-9
7 Saint John's (Minnesota) 29-11 29-11
8 Saint Mary's (Minnesota) 25-13 25-13
.
New England In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Eastern Connecticut St. 31-4 31-4
2 Southern Maine 29-8 29-8
3 Wheaton (Massachusetts) 16-3 16-3
4 Babson 13-4 13-4
5 Rhode Island 25-11 25-11
6 Mitchell 19-4 22-6 NECC
7 Salve Regina 12-4-2001 12-4-2001 CCC
8 Amherst 10-3 10-3
9 Endicott 15-6 15-6
10 Tufts 11-6 11-6
11 Roger Williams 20-11 20-11
NR Johnson & Wales - GNAC
NR Salem State -MASCAC
.
New York In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Oswego State 23-3 23-3
2 Rochester (New York) 24-8 24-8 LL
3 SUNY Cortland 25-5 25-5
4 St. John Fisher 29-5 29-5
5 SUNY Brockport 18-7 18-7
6 Merchant Marine 16-3 16-3 Skyline
7 Old Westbury 13-6 13-6
.
South In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Salisbury 23-4 23-4
2 Shenandoah 30-9 30-9
3 N.C. Wesleyan 31-7 31-7
4 Berry 32-9 32-9
5 LaGrange 23-7 23-7 USAC
6 Lynchburg 32-12 32-12
7 Birmingham Southern 25-14 25-14 SAA
8 Christopher Newport 22-10 22-10
.
West In-Division Record Overall Record
1 Trinity (Texas) 25-7 28-7
2 Texas-Dallas 28-10 29-10 ASC
3 Texas Lutheran 24-10 28-12 SCAC
4 Pacific (Oregon) 31-13 31-13 NWC
5 Centenary (Louisiana) 27-11 30-11
6 Williamette 30-15 30-15
7 East Texas Baptist 25-15 29-16
Mideast region, MIAA:
Unless an earthquake or a hurricane hits southeastern Michigan in the next couple hours, Adrian is going to get a Pool A. They lead Hope 15-0 through the middle of the 4th, after winning yesterday's game 6-5 in 13 innings. Best of three series.
And so the list of Pool C contenders begins.
#3 seed Centenary LA beat #1 seed Trinity TX in game 7 of the SCAC Post-season Tourney.
Trinity was #1 in the second week Regional Rankings for Region 10.
You can add to this list thanks to the WIAC....
#4 seed UWO mercy-rules Whitewater 17-4 and then #3 seed La Crosse scores five runs in the 9th inning to eliminate the Warhawks from the WIAC Tournament 14-12.
Whitewater was #1 in the second week Regional Rankings for Region 9.
The one "saving grace" for for the Pool C contenders is that Stevens Point can still snag the WIAC's Pool A bid and they were ranked #2 in the second week Regional Rankings for Region 9.
+1 for the report
Conspiracy theorists suspect that UWSP will go down in the finals Giving the WAIC a very good chance of getting 3 bids. ;)
What is different this year is that there will be 10 teams on the board when Pool C starts up. There will be less "blocking" among the contenders, just because some teams that have been involved in blocking *** have been spread to other regions, as we go from 8 to 10.
*** An example of blocking is that a really strong team (B) is in the rankings, but team ahead of them (Team A) beat them once or twice in regular season, or has a better record among common opponents in that region, but a team from another region on the table (Team C) at the same time may a better record over the Team A. Team C gets the bid and Team A blocks Team B.
I encourage posters to give other examples that have happened to their teams.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 13, 2022, 11:34:58 AM
+1 for the report
Conspiracy theorists suspect that UWSP will go down in the finals Giving the WAIC a very good chance of getting 3 bids. ;)
Stevens Point dispatches of UWO 11-5 in the first game today, and UWO turns around and eliminates La Crosse 11-4 in the final game of the day.
Due to the heat, the third game of the day was moved to Saturday since UWO had already played a pair of games today. Had La Crosse beaten UWO, the third game would've been played as scheduled.
This means it's Stevens Point vs UWO tomorrow for the Pool A bid. UWO needs to win a pair, while Stevens Point just needs to win one game. Anyone on the Pool C "bubble" will likely be pulling for the Pointers as they are likely in as a Pool C bid should UWO win a pair tomorrow.
Add Chapman to Pool C. I expect they will host a pod next week but am not sure if it will be 2 or 4 teams. I would guess Trinity will host the other "West" regional that would match with the Chapman regional in the supers. Plenty still to happen between now and tomorrow night.
If I remember Trinity can't host since they don't have a press box.
The inside joke in Trinity recruiting was Coach Fregosi* telling recruits they would play in the new stadium....ha ha ha ha ha...
* recruiting coach who recruited the CWS team...still waiting coach :)
Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 14, 2022, 10:46:51 PM
If I remember Trinity can't host since they don't have a press box.
The inside joke in Trinity recruiting was Coach Fregosi* telling recruits they would play in the new stadium....ha ha ha ha ha...
* recruiting coach who recruited the CWS team...still waiting coach :)
I didn't realize Trinity didn't have a press box. I figure the regional will likely be up at UT-Dallas. I have no clue who will be going where but I would hate to see conference teams matched up.