Author Topic: Pool C - 2017  (Read 15653 times)

Offline wally_wabash

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Pool C - 2017
« on: October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 am »
Feels like a good week to drop the first eliminator table of the season and thinking about those at-large bids.  Plenty of interesting results through the first half of the season that have shaken things up a bit.  I'll have the first table up this evening. 
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2017, 11:40:48 am »
Feels like a good week to drop the first eliminator table of the season and thinking about those at-large bids.  Plenty of interesting results through the first half of the season that have shaken things up a bit.  I'll have the first table up this evening.
+1!

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2017, 08:56:35 pm »
So what I'm about to post (if you're new to this) is all of the D3 teams that can/would play in the postseason (sorry NESCAC).  All of these teams (minus the ones in gray) are eligible for invitation to the tournament should they not win their league.  What this table is doing is giving you a visual look at which teams have been eliminated from getting any of those at-large (Pool B or C) invitations.  Teams in the green are still alive, teams in the red are out. 



click to enlarge

Alright, so at this point in the season there's basically two ways to be eliminated:
- You've lost three games.  No team in the Pool A/B/C era has been invited with three losses. 
- You've lost twice out of conference.  If you're carrying two OOC losses, you are either going to run the table and qualify automatically or you're going to lose a game in conference which lumps you in with the three loss crowd. 

Yes, there are definitely teams in the green here that you know and I know have basically zero chance at getting into the tournament.  That'll sort itself out as we go along.  I'll start doing some more in-depth scrubbing of our two loss teams and their schedules to see if they are in the win-out-and-qualify-automatically group or not.  I'll also look more at upcoming schedules and see who has games that can boost an at-large profile (games vs. likely RROs, etc.), who's got SOS trouble, etc. 

A couple of other notes on the tables:
- The ASC, NEWMAC, and Independents are highlight in purple there to signify their Pool B status. 
- McMurry and Brevard are provisional members and not postseason eligible this year.  I've grayed them out. 

Alright, there you have it.  We're a little over halfway through the season and a little over half of the division has been knocked out of the at-large situation.  Feels about right. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2017, 10:38:23 am »
Re: the teams in green. It's also worth pointing out that many of these two-loss teams who are on the bubble still have to play each other, so even if they're both in green now, we know they won't be, (RPI/Hobart is one example)

Offline wesleydad

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2017, 11:06:35 am »
Wally, with the current NJAC records and who has to play each other the rest of the way, it seems like Frostburg is the only team left that could be considered for pool C.  Everyone except Wesley, Salisbury, and Frostburg have 2 losses.  Wesley wins the league if they win out which would mean Salisbury has 2 losses.  Salisbury wins the league if they win out giving both Wesley and Frostburg 2 losses.  If Frostburg wins out they would only have 1 loss, to Wesley and would stack up well in the pool C selections.  Would Wesley, losses to Del Val and Salisbury, Salisbury, losses to Albright and Wesley, or Frostburg losses to Wesley and Salisbury look good enough for a pool C with 2 losses?  Seems like the best chance the NJAC has for getting 2 teams in is for Wesley and Frostburg to win out.  Wesley gets AQ via H2H and Frostburg has only 1 loss.  Thanks for doing this, it is cool to see how things change each week.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2017, 11:41:54 am »
I disagree with nothing that you're saying, wesleydad.  But I do like to err on the side of inclusion, especially early on.  I also I don't have the time to scrub every conference schedule in the way you've done with the NJAC this early in the season, so I do like the input here as it helps clarify what to watch for as we go forward.

I'd also say that while two loss teams seem like a long shot (and historically they are), we also have to wait and see what happens in the region and nationally before declaring most two loss teams out.  If the East region cannibalizes itself (it happens more often than not) and a two loss NJAC team winds up being the top ranked at-large team in the region, they've got a shot.  As we get more results over the next few weeks most of the stuff like what you've laid out will sort itself out. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

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Offline MANDGSU

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2017, 12:18:50 pm »
Wally, with the current NJAC records and who has to play each other the rest of the way, it seems like Frostburg is the only team left that could be considered for pool C.  Everyone except Wesley, Salisbury, and Frostburg have 2 losses.  Wesley wins the league if they win out which would mean Salisbury has 2 losses.  Salisbury wins the league if they win out giving both Wesley and Frostburg 2 losses.  If Frostburg wins out they would only have 1 loss, to Wesley and would stack up well in the pool C selections.  Would Wesley, losses to Del Val and Salisbury, Salisbury, losses to Albright and Wesley, or Frostburg losses to Wesley and Salisbury look good enough for a pool C with 2 losses?  Seems like the best chance the NJAC has for getting 2 teams in is for Wesley and Frostburg to win out.  Wesley gets AQ via H2H and Frostburg has only 1 loss.  Thanks for doing this, it is cool to see how things change each week.

Same scenario as last year. However, Frostburg wouldn't be left out regardless of Stevenson record. Sometimes it comes down to perception and history. History will tell you if Frostburg goes 9-1 back-to-back, they deserve to be in. However, I am hoping we knock both of you all out. However, I do think that the top two NJAC teams, whoever that may be, could win at least  two playoff games depending on matchups.

Online Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2017, 12:38:13 pm »
Wally, with the current NJAC records and who has to play each other the rest of the way, it seems like Frostburg is the only team left that could be considered for pool C.  Everyone except Wesley, Salisbury, and Frostburg have 2 losses.  Wesley wins the league if they win out which would mean Salisbury has 2 losses.  Salisbury wins the league if they win out giving both Wesley and Frostburg 2 losses.  If Frostburg wins out they would only have 1 loss, to Wesley and would stack up well in the pool C selections.  Would Wesley, losses to Del Val and Salisbury, Salisbury, losses to Albright and Wesley, or Frostburg losses to Wesley and Salisbury look good enough for a pool C with 2 losses?  Seems like the best chance the NJAC has for getting 2 teams in is for Wesley and Frostburg to win out.  Wesley gets AQ via H2H and Frostburg has only 1 loss.  Thanks for doing this, it is cool to see how things change each week.

Same scenario as last year. However, Frostburg wouldn't be left out regardless of Stevenson record. Sometimes it comes down to perception and history. History will tell you if Frostburg goes 9-1 back-to-back, they deserve to be in. However, I am hoping we knock both of you all out. However, I do think that the top two NJAC teams, whoever that may be, could win at least  two playoff games depending on matchups.

The problem is "perception and history" are not part of the selection process.

The SOS will be a bigger deciding factor ... once those numbers are a bit more "solid" they can give a better sense of where teams in the NJAC stand. However, the idea of 2-loss teams making the playoffs is a tough one. We all know the history with that Mendoza Line.
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Offline Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2017, 12:15:10 am »
Wally - what are the chances of a Two loss NWC team getting a pool C? If Linfield loses they will have a loss to #1 MHB and  Top 15 (I'd expect) GFU. If Linfield wins then GFU would have two losses to very highly ranked opponents. Don't know SOS yet... Would seem to be convenient for the NCAA... SCIAC winner to MHB... NWC teams play in first round... HSU gets a home game...


Offline Mr. Ypsi

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2017, 12:42:20 am »
Since we are now down to just 5(?) Pool C teams, I'd say the days of two-loss C teams are just about extinct.

VERY good teams are likely to be left out, alas.  Just too many AQs for a too-small tourney field.  Since the tourney field is highly unlikely to be expanded, there may have to be consideration of ways to reduce the AQs.  Require 8 (or even 9?) teams, rather than 7 for an AQ?  Make qualifiers from conferences that almost NEVER win a tourney game also meet some other standard to qualify?

I don't know the answer, and don't think we have YET reached the point where a legitimate contender for the Stagg Bowl will sit at home, but I think we are definitely headed that direction.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2017, 09:59:37 am »
Wally - what are the chances of a Two loss NWC team getting a pool C? If Linfield loses they will have a loss to #1 MHB and  Top 15 (I'd expect) GFU. If Linfield wins then GFU would have two losses to very highly ranked opponents. Don't know SOS yet... Would seem to be convenient for the NCAA... SCIAC winner to MHB... NWC teams play in first round... HSU gets a home game...

Depends on how the regional rankings shake out.  In the West it seems likely that we're going to get a single-loss runner up in the MIAC (winner of C-MC/St. John's).  A single loss WIAC runner up is also possible, but seems less certain with Platteville having to play Whitewater and La Crosse still.  You've also still got the possibility of a single loss Lake Forest team emerging from the MWC, although truthfully I think if they lose to Monmouth, they would wind up behind an NWC runner up in the regional rankings. 

That's a long way around to get to an answer.  I think the best, plausible scenario for an NWC runner up to make the field is that Lake Forest wins the MWC outright, Platteville and La Crosse both wind up with multiple losses.  That could get your NWC runner up second in the at-large line from the region behind the MIAC runner up.  It does get tricky for George Fox and a little unfortunate because the game that probably puts them in play for a Pool C in the first place is that game against Platteville...which would also crush them if Platteville winds up 8-2 because it's hard to place George Fox ahead of Platteville given equal records and that h2h result.  That result also hurts Linfield w/ respect to Platteville because of common opponent results.  In any case, the best any 8-2 team can hope for is to get ranked high enough to get on the board and in the discussion for an invitation.  Once you're there, anything goes. 

It's kinda cool when we get these intersecting data points.  We're normally not that lucky. 
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Offline Bombers798891

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2017, 10:06:54 am »
I've long thought some sort of earned access could be a fair compromise. Something that would require an AQ team to be in the Top X of the regional rankings, for example. But, for some of these newer conferences, there's a stigma attached to playing them, which limits their opportunities to play quality opponents OOC and earn that ranking.

The better solution, in my mind, would simply be to increase the number of teams needed to have an AQ. Watching the E8 and LL do this absurd dance has convinced me that's the better option. It's simply silly to me that the Bombers moved from the E8 to the LL, and kept nearly their entire schedule the same. Buff State will probably do the same next season.

Online Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2017, 10:33:12 am »
I've long thought some sort of earned access could be a fair compromise. Something that would require an AQ team to be in the Top X of the regional rankings, for example. But, for some of these newer conferences, there's a stigma attached to playing them, which limits their opportunities to play quality opponents OOC and earn that ranking.

The better solution, in my mind, would simply be to increase the number of teams needed to have an AQ. Watching the E8 and LL do this absurd dance has convinced me that's the better option. It's simply silly to me that the Bombers moved from the E8 to the LL, and kept nearly their entire schedule the same. Buff State will probably do the same next season.

Let me first point out that your first paragraph is what DII does in all lot - if not all - sports. They also have a lot more bids to give out since they have more money to spend (5% of the NCAA operational budget; 3.1% for DIII).

The second option is maybe something the NCAA has to look at, but it is a slippery slope. If they start getting sport-specific with AQ numbers it is going to become problematic. The real thing is that the entire division would have to approve such a thing and you know full well that isn't going to fly. Nearly every conference is going to vote against it because nearly every conference has some sport that has low numbers per the AQ. If they open the door for one sport, what will stop them from opening the doors to other sports. I don't disagree it is an idea worth considering, but knowing how schools and conferences think on things like this ... don't hold your breathe.

I will follow that up with the fact that the Presidents Council is looking into set ups like the old GSAC women's and the new ACAA in terms of conferences with the right numbers, but that is about it when it comes to conference AQ. It could be interesting what they decide to do to strengthen AQ requirements and if that trickles down to sport-specific or not.
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Online merlecanlas

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2017, 11:06:05 am »
if two PAC teams go 10-0, do we basically go down to four Pool C bids?

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2017, 11:34:31 am »
if two PAC teams go 10-0, do we basically go down to four Pool C bids?

No, there’s still 5 Pool C bids. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic