D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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hazzben

Quote from: smedindy on September 07, 2011, 08:11:05 PM
QuoteAgree to disagree here. If team A beats team B, then team A is the better team

Really?

There have been so many games won on a fluke bounce in the history of football. Is Auburn better than Utah State? Most neutral observers think that Utah State was the better team, and outplayed Auburn for the entire game.

And then there's this scenario, in successive weeks:

Team A beats Team B
Team B beats Team C
Team C beats Team A

There are no injury problems nor real home field advantage. Who's the better team?

Yep, call me crazy, but when a team wins on the field, I think they're the better team. Hence when SJU won the 2003 national title, I thought they were the better team. Never mind that some felt Mount would win 7, 8 or 9 out of 10. They weren't playing 10 times. They played once. Hence, SJU ended up #1 in the polls and got a national title over a Mt Union team that was being hailed as possibly their greatest ever prior to the game.

And your second scenario is just silly. It has nothing to do with week 1 in the polls (which is what this discussion is about). Team A has played exactly one game against Team B. Team A won. Team A and Team B have played no one else so far this season. While they will play other teams, they haven't yet. You have only 1 objective result to consult this far. And Team A has it in spades. Nice hypothetical, but we have a real world situation. Redlands, a real team, beat North Central. Another real team, head to head.

I specifically state that I could see NCC being ranked above Redlands in later weeks once more data is available. Maybe Redlands suffers a loss. Maybe NCC rebounds and starts dominating teams for the rest of the season. Great, move them above Redlands if objective and subjective material support it. But as of week won, every bit of objective data says Redlands was better.

And 'most neutral observers think Utah State was the better team'. Really? Show me that data on neutral observers. And no, Utah State did not outplay Auburn for the 'entire game'. That's the 'entire' reason Auburn won the game. There was a large portion of the game that Utah State did outplay Auburn. BUT, it wasn't for the 'entire game', hence, Auburn won. Aka, they scored more points than Utah State, get a W in the column, etc.

BoBo

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on September 07, 2011, 09:06:50 PM
I may be biased, but I think Franklin certainly has a chance. They kept it close for 3 quarters last year in the playoffs with no rushing game at all and they appear to be able to run this season. They'll definitely put up some points, it's just a matter of whether the UWW defense or the Franklin defense can make more plays.

I agree, the Grizz were within 7 - 14 points for 3 quarters. And they may very well keep it with 7 -14 points for three quarters again.  But in the end, Warhawks will prevail by +25. If you dissect their games over this run, you will discover that this is not unusual for them.  In fact, it is commonly their winning formula. IMO, there were some interesting dynamics at work in that game in week 11 last year & especially the week leading up to it (having to start a QB with 0 career starts and just a handful of snaps vs a 4 year starter and one of D3's best gunslingers, etc). Nothing that happened last week suggests that Franklin won't throw the ball all over the place again this week. The Grizz offense rushed the ball for 200+ last week, but considering the opponent (losers of their last 21 games), I don't think your assumption about the Grizz running game can be made quite yet. If I were a Grizz fan, I'd be concerned with my own defense, they didn't really make the plays last week against a really bad team. I look for UWW to play a very strong game, creating scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers, pounding the rock, and Blanchard showing the Grizz faithful what they missed in week 11 last year. I'm glad to see that Franklin is going to stream the game live over the 'net.  Are you expecting a large crowd?   
I'VE REACHED THAT AGE
WHERE MY BRAIN GOES
FROM "YOU PROBABLY
SHOULDN'T SAY THAT," TO
"WHAT THE HELL, LET'S SEE
WHAT HAPPENS."

bleedpurple

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on September 07, 2011, 09:06:50 PM
I may be biased, but I think Franklin certainly has a chance. They kept it close for 3 quarters last year in the playoffs with no rushing game at all and they appear to be able to run this season. They'll definitely put up some points, it's just a matter of whether the UWW defense or the Franklin defense can make more plays.

While I was writing this, Bobo responded with some of the same points, but I still thought I'd post the below nonetheless:

I preface my thoughts by agreeing that Franklin CERTAINLY has a chance. However, I do think your reasoning based on last year's game may be a bit optimistic.  While in the strictest sense, Franklin "kept it close" for 3 quarters", UW-W did score 6 seconds into the 4th quarter extending their lead to 17 points. And while they may not have had a rushing game at all AGAINST UW-W (-11 yards rushing), they did average over 160 yards per game on the ground when you take away the sack yardage (which I still believe should be held against the passing game). There are also facts that could support a UW-W blowout win (which I readily acknowledge you never said there WEREN'T):

1. Last year's final score probably shouldn't be completely ignored: UW-W 52-21.
2. It is improbable that sophomore QB Jonny West's game is quite at the level that Gagliardi Finalist Kyle Ray's was when he played against UW-W.
3. In last year's game sophomore QB Lee Brekke was making his first collegiate start for UW-W. 

But once again, having said all that, I do believe Franklin has a chance to win.

Enjoy the game!

Pat Coleman

Quote from: hazzben on September 07, 2011, 10:49:15 PM
Yep, call me crazy, but when a team wins on the field, I think they're the better team. Hence when SJU won the 2003 national title, I thought they were the better team. Never mind that some felt Mount would win 7, 8 or 9 out of 10. They weren't playing 10 times. They played once. Hence, SJU ended up #1 in the polls and got a national title over a Mt Union team that was being hailed as possibly their greatest ever prior to the game.

And your second scenario is just silly. It has nothing to do with week 1 in the polls (which is what this discussion is about).

Your first scenario has nothing to do with week 1 in the polls either. I doubt anyone would really give the winner of the title game a No. 2 vote. (Unless there were somehow some better team left out of the field entirely.)
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: BoBo on September 07, 2011, 10:50:24 PMI'm glad to see that Franklin is going to stream the game live over the 'net.  Are you expecting a large crowd?
Well, probably not a large crowd by UWW standards, but for a school with 1000 students we should get at least 2-3k packed in. If it doesn't rain (40% chance at the moment) the weather is looking nice
Football picker extraordinaire
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1x: Bracket, OAC:S

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2023: Mens Pickem

emma17

Nice post Bleed.  And FC Griz I respect your stance.
I don't understand the number of posters that say a team doesn't "have a chance"- especially to keep a game close, for a team that has shown some level of ability.  Both Franklin and Oshkosh are big underdogs according to some pickem boards, and many people pick UWW and MT without any comment whatsoever about the abilities of the teams they are playing.  I feel it's a bit disrespectful of the talent and the work the athletes put in the offseason, and the work the coaches put in. 

I think all good teams have a chance against historically great teams, and all it takes is some breaks along the way and confidence to build and doubt to creep in with 20 yr olds and you end up with a result you didn't expect.  I didn't expect Stevens Point to beat UWW three years ago.   

BoBo

#336
Quote from: emma17 on September 07, 2011, 11:19:57 PM
Nice post Bleed.  And FC Griz I respect your stance.
I don't understand the number of posters that say a team doesn't "have a chance"- especially to keep a game close, for a team that has shown some level of ability.  Both Franklin and Oshkosh are big underdogs according to some pickem boards, and many people pick UWW and MT without any comment whatsoever about the abilities of the teams they are playing.  I feel it's a bit disrespectful of the talent and the work the athletes put in the offseason, and the work the coaches put in. 

I think all good teams have a chance against historically great teams, and all it takes is some breaks along the way and confidence to build and doubt to creep in with 20 yr olds and you end up with a result you didn't expect.  I didn't expect Stevens Point to beat UWW three years ago.   

We wouldn't have the word "upset" in our sports vocabulary if every or most or many teams that "have a chance" to win were winning these games with regularity. We call it an upset for the simple fact that they are not winning these games on a regular basis & we don't expect they will win.  That Point game was an upset because you and many others never thought UWSP had a chance, me included. We didn't expect it so it was an upset in our collective minds. Point fans might disagree with us - they thought they could win - we weren't disrespecting them because we thought otherwise. Our view then had nothing to do with the dreaded "D" word in the same way it has nothing to do with what I'm saying today. You're entitled to your opinion just like anybody else is entitled to theirs; but, IMO it's wrong to accuse them of being disrepectful to others because their opinion differs from you.
I'VE REACHED THAT AGE
WHERE MY BRAIN GOES
FROM "YOU PROBABLY
SHOULDN'T SAY THAT," TO
"WHAT THE HELL, LET'S SEE
WHAT HAPPENS."

hazzben

#337
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 07, 2011, 10:56:41 PM
Quote from: hazzben on September 07, 2011, 10:49:15 PM
Yep, call me crazy, but when a team wins on the field, I think they're the better team. Hence when SJU won the 2003 national title, I thought they were the better team. Never mind that some felt Mount would win 7, 8 or 9 out of 10. They weren't playing 10 times. They played once. Hence, SJU ended up #1 in the polls and got a national title over a Mt Union team that was being hailed as possibly their greatest ever prior to the game.

And your second scenario is just silly. It has nothing to do with week 1 in the polls (which is what this discussion is about).

Your first scenario has nothing to do with week 1 in the polls either. I doubt anyone would really give the winner of the title game a No. 2 vote. (Unless there were somehow some better team left out of the field entirely.)

Fair enough. But I remember talking to folks about the fact that they still felt Mount was the better team than SJU in 2003, despite the results on the field. That's what we love about having a playoff, it proves it on the field. Call me crazy, but I think SJU, having won on the field, deserved to be ranked higher than Mount. I get that it's not exactly the same as a wk 1 victory. But a head to head playoff victory has more correlation to what happened on the field in wk 1 than a hypothetical.

But contrary to how the majority of voters in both the fan poll and D3 poll voted, one week into the season, Redlands beat North Central. For a voter to place North Central above Redlands at this point in the season is contrary to all objective evidence on the subject. They've essentially said, subjective weighs more in my poll than objective, on the field evidence. 4, 5, 6 weeks from now things will be immensely more convoluted, you'll have all sorts of objective evidence that will necessarily lead to subjective weighting of that evidence. That's what makes it fun. However, the preseason and early weeks are the most subjective times for the polls. In my world, that'd be where I gave the most weight to the only objective evidence available.

Considering I've now annoyed and exhausted myself with this subject, I can't imagine how much everyone else must be sick of it. I'll shut up now!  ;D :-X

02 Warhawk

Quote from: BoBo on September 07, 2011, 08:21:10 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 07, 2011, 05:57:21 PM
Quote from: retagent on September 07, 2011, 04:48:40 PM
02 You forgot to list UWEC @ St John's. Though the game is in Collegeville, Eau Claire always seems to be a thorn in the Johnnie's side. Particularly this early in the season. I know SJU is not in the Top Ten, I find it odd that you would pass up the opportunity to pump the WIAC on this. ;) By the way, I do agree with your post 100%.

Out of the games I mentioned above, I think the underdog that has the best chance to win is Franklin, actually.

???  ???

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, 02, or just being a nervous Nellie!!  I think UWW covers the spread (24.5) on the OAC pick'ems. River Falls and Eau Claire have much better shots at being part of upsets than Franklin has of upseting your Warhawks, IMO. Oshkosh and La Crosse? Not even close on the road against those two teams.

I'm not saying they'll lose. I'm just saying that out of the games I mentioned below, I just think Franklin has the best chance for the upset.

St Thomas @ River Falls
LaCrosse @ Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX)
Oshkosh @ Mount Union (OH)
Whitewater @ Franklin

RF beating St. Thomas? No way
LaCrosse traveling a million hours on bus and winning AT MHB? No chance
Mount losing at home to an unranked team? Please
A tough, ranked Franklin team knocking off UWW, in Franklin? Possible

That's all I'm saying I'm not taking this game for granted. UWW has to lose eventually...right?

02 Warhawk

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on September 07, 2011, 09:06:50 PM
I may be biased, but I think Franklin certainly has a chance. They kept it close for 3 quarters last year in the playoffs with no rushing game at all and they appear to be able to run this season. They'll definitely put up some points, it's just a matter of whether the UWW defense or the Franklin defense can make more plays.

With an All-American QB

crufootball

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 08, 2011, 09:45:42 AM
Quote from: BoBo on September 07, 2011, 08:21:10 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 07, 2011, 05:57:21 PM
Quote from: retagent on September 07, 2011, 04:48:40 PM
02 You forgot to list UWEC @ St John's. Though the game is in Collegeville, Eau Claire always seems to be a thorn in the Johnnie's side. Particularly this early in the season. I know SJU is not in the Top Ten, I find it odd that you would pass up the opportunity to pump the WIAC on this. ;) By the way, I do agree with your post 100%.

Out of the games I mentioned above, I think the underdog that has the best chance to win is Franklin, actually.

???  ???

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, 02, or just being a nervous Nellie!!  I think UWW covers the spread (24.5) on the OAC pick'ems. River Falls and Eau Claire have much better shots at being part of upsets than Franklin has of upseting your Warhawks, IMO. Oshkosh and La Crosse? Not even close on the road against those two teams.

I'm not saying they'll lose. I'm just saying that out of the games I mentioned below, I just think Franklin has the best chance for the upset.

St Thomas @ River Falls
LaCrosse @ Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX)
Oshkosh @ Mount Union (OH)
Whitewater @ Franklin

RF beating St. Thomas? No way
LaCrosse traveling a million hours on bus and winning AT MHB? No chance
Mount losing at home to an unranked team? Please
A tough, ranked Franklin team knocking off UWW, in Franklin? Possible

That's all I'm saying I'm not taking this game for granted. UWW has to lose eventually...right?

Is LaCrosse really traveling by bus?

02 Warhawk

Quote from: crufootball on September 08, 2011, 10:17:44 AM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 08, 2011, 09:45:42 AM
Quote from: BoBo on September 07, 2011, 08:21:10 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 07, 2011, 05:57:21 PM
Quote from: retagent on September 07, 2011, 04:48:40 PM
02 You forgot to list UWEC @ St John's. Though the game is in Collegeville, Eau Claire always seems to be a thorn in the Johnnie's side. Particularly this early in the season. I know SJU is not in the Top Ten, I find it odd that you would pass up the opportunity to pump the WIAC on this. ;) By the way, I do agree with your post 100%.

Out of the games I mentioned above, I think the underdog that has the best chance to win is Franklin, actually.

???  ???

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, 02, or just being a nervous Nellie!!  I think UWW covers the spread (24.5) on the OAC pick'ems. River Falls and Eau Claire have much better shots at being part of upsets than Franklin has of upseting your Warhawks, IMO. Oshkosh and La Crosse? Not even close on the road against those two teams.

I'm not saying they'll lose. I'm just saying that out of the games I mentioned below, I just think Franklin has the best chance for the upset.

St Thomas @ River Falls
LaCrosse @ Mary Hardin-Baylor (TX)
Oshkosh @ Mount Union (OH)
Whitewater @ Franklin

RF beating St. Thomas? No way
LaCrosse traveling a million hours on bus and winning AT MHB? No chance
Mount losing at home to an unranked team? Please
A tough, ranked Franklin team knocking off UWW, in Franklin? Possible

That's all I'm saying I'm not taking this game for granted. UWW has to lose eventually...right?

Is LaCrosse really traveling by bus?

Yes, sir.

crufootball

Wow, I hope for their sake they have already left and can chop the drive up as much as possible.

frank uible

Just to keep the record straight we call a surprising outcome in a contest an upset because a 2 year old colt named Upset defeated Man O'War in the 1919 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York for Man O'War's sole lifetime loss.

emma17

Easy now Bobo- I feel you have a slight tendency to argue things I haven't said.
First, I'm not criticizing people for different opinions- I am simply saying I believe it shows arrogance and disrespect to flat out say another team has "no chance" to beat my team- especially without logical evidence other than "because we have won x championships so there". 
And please stop putting words in my mouth- I never said or felt  "Stevens Point didn't have a chance"- you must have me confused w someone else.
To say I didn't expect Stevens Point to win is not the same, IMO, as saying Stevens Point "had no chance" to win.
Criticize me for what I say and not for what I didn't say.

Hazzben- you are fighting the good fight- many of us agree w your logic.