D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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smedindy

They're on my 'watch list'. Another crazy week, and they keep winning, they'll be up there. Of course, 'winning' as in 'only losing to Mt. Union'.

smedindy

Quote from: K-Mack on October 05, 2011, 11:02:52 PM



Other people clearly disagree with the "who woulda done what on a neutral field" thinking and such. It's valid, I suppose.

Week 1 H2H matchups get less and less valid, I think, as time moves on.

And Keith, what would have happened if North Central played Cal Lutheran and won. Where would Redlands, NC, and Cal Lutheran shake out?

02 Warhawk

#677
Quote from: smedindy on October 06, 2011, 01:40:58 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 05, 2011, 11:02:52 PM



Other people clearly disagree with the "who woulda done what on a neutral field" thinking and such. It's valid, I suppose.

Week 1 H2H matchups get less and less valid, I think, as time moves on.

And Keith, what would have happened if North Central played Cal Lutheran and won. Where would Redlands, NC, and Cal Lutheran shake out?

Same issue occurred last season when Rowan, Montclair St, and Cortland St. all beat each other. And all three teams finished with just that one loss.

Edit: And I believe it was Rowan who got the short end of the stick, and didn't make the playoffs. While Montclair and Cortland did.

Raider 68

I know Pat has the data, but it would interesting to know how each region finished in Top 10 for the last
ten years?  :-\

I raise the question, since I am not sure how well the East has performed, given the East region in terms of the last few years has not had ( I believe) a Top 5 team at the playoff selection time.
13 time Division III National Champions

emma17

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 06, 2011, 12:16:25 PM
I see I'm still the only one giving Muskingum points so far.

It makes me feel not totally stupid knowing they are getting 17 points on the D3football.com poll.  ;D

I feel Musky has to prove it this week and then they are in top 25. My gut tells me they will struggle against the Berg though.

bleedpurple

A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com

emma17

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 06, 2011, 11:48:41 PM
A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com

I'm glad you mentioned the Elmhurst-Wheaton game.  I would not be surprised if Elmhurst gives them all they can handle.  I hope Dubuque wins, that's a good story going there. 

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 06, 2011, 12:16:25 PM
I see I'm still the only one giving Muskingum points so far.

It makes me feel not totally stupid knowing they are getting 17 points on the D3football.com poll.  ;D
The problem is there's 30-35 teams that could be in the top 25. If we had more voters I'm sure a few might give them a couple points. They're on my watch list, but probably only the 2nd or 3rd team I'd move in next week if teams drop out.
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ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: emma17 on October 06, 2011, 11:55:42 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 06, 2011, 11:48:41 PM
A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com

I'm glad you mentioned the Elmhurst-Wheaton game.  I would not be surprised if Elmhurst gives them all they can handle.  I hope Dubuque wins, that's a good story going there.

Elmhurst?  The same Elmhurst team that lost to Chicago?
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

emma17

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 07, 2011, 10:50:03 AM
Quote from: emma17 on October 06, 2011, 11:55:42 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 06, 2011, 11:48:41 PM
A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com

I'm glad you mentioned the Elmhurst-Wheaton game.  I would not be surprised if Elmhurst gives them all they can handle.  I hope Dubuque wins, that's a good story going there.

Elmhurst?  The same Elmhurst team that lost to Chicago?

Oh ye of little faith.  Yes, that same Elmhurst- in which the game vs Chicago (not a bad team btw) was a statistical anomaly.   

Mugsy

Quote from: emma17 on October 07, 2011, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 07, 2011, 10:50:03 AM
Quote from: emma17 on October 06, 2011, 11:55:42 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 06, 2011, 11:48:41 PM
A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com

I'm glad you mentioned the Elmhurst-Wheaton game.  I would not be surprised if Elmhurst gives them all they can handle.  I hope Dubuque wins, that's a good story going there.

Elmhurst?  The same Elmhurst team that lost to Chicago?

Oh ye of little faith.  Yes, that same Elmhurst- in which the game vs Chicago (not a bad team btw) was a statistical anomaly.   

Even if Elmhurst upsets Wheaton (which has happened twice in the past decade), that does not make them a top 25 team. Over on CCIW board, I mentioned how Elmhurst has only had 1 season since 1999 where they've been over .500 in the CCIW.  Until they prove otherwise, I don't see them going better than 1-2 against the top CCIW teams (this year appears to be Wheaton, IWU and NCC).

They do have a very solid rushing attack (RB - Williams is likely 1st team All-CCIW), with an experienced QB (3 year starter) and a solid defense.  I can see them upsetting a top team in the CCIW, but I can also see them losing to a lower CCIW team.

Anyway... I've rambled enough.  Elmhurst is not a top 25 team.
Wheaton Football: CCIW Champs: 1950, 1953-1959, 1995, 2000, 2002-2004, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2019

smedindy

Quote from: emma17 on October 07, 2011, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 07, 2011, 10:50:03 AM
Quote from: emma17 on October 06, 2011, 11:55:42 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 06, 2011, 11:48:41 PM
A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com



I'm glad you mentioned the Elmhurst-Wheaton game.  I would not be surprised if Elmhurst gives them all they can handle.  I hope Dubuque wins, that's a good story going there.

Elmhurst?  The same Elmhurst team that lost to Chicago?

Oh ye of little faith.  Yes, that same Elmhurst- in which the game vs Chicago (not a bad team btw) was a statistical anomaly.   

Much like B-W losing to Capital was anomalous?  :D

I've seen Chicago play (via a livestream). If you put pressure on their QB, they can't get the ball to Brizzolara. Brizzolara doesn't touch the ball, they're done.

Their defense isn't that physical either.

emma17

Quote from: smedindy on October 07, 2011, 02:57:07 PM
Quote from: emma17 on October 07, 2011, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 07, 2011, 10:50:03 AM
Quote from: emma17 on October 06, 2011, 11:55:42 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 06, 2011, 11:48:41 PM
A quick glance at some of Saturday's more intriguing games:

"In and Around the D3 Top 25"

www.uwwfootball.com



I'm glad you mentioned the Elmhurst-Wheaton game.  I would not be surprised if Elmhurst gives them all they can handle.  I hope Dubuque wins, that's a good story going there.

Elmhurst?  The same Elmhurst team that lost to Chicago?

Oh ye of little faith.  Yes, that same Elmhurst- in which the game vs Chicago (not a bad team btw) was a statistical anomaly.   

Much like B-W losing to Capital was anomalous?  :DI've seen Chicago play (via a livestream). If you put pressure on their QB, they can't get the ball to Brizzolara. Brizzolara doesn't touch the ball, they're done.

Their defense isn't that physical either.

I don't get the reference to this game?  Were the stats lopsided in B-W's favor even though they lost?

smedindy

An anomalous result doesn't necessarily mean the stats are whacked out one way or another. B-W turned the ball over four times, without those, they were in control. As much as I love statistical analysis, in football it's not always easy to just compare yards. There are penalties, return yardage, and 'garbage' yards gained when defenses get vanilla.

As you should know, teams can bend and not break, giving up 40 or 50 yards, then getting a huge return on an INT or a punt and only have to go 20 yards for a score. Or, penalties could add a lot of yardage forwards or backwards. I think in one NFL game, a team gained 105 yards on an 80 yard drive for a TD because of penalties. That's 25 extra yards that are added to their total.

I contend the B-W result was anomalous because Capital got waxed by the 'Berg 55-3 the next day. I don't think B-W loses to Heidelberg, much less by 52 points.

And in that case, how would you "head-to-head" rankings people suss it out. Team A gets crushed by Team B, who beats Team C handily and then Team C beats Team A by 14 or so....





emma17

Quote from: smedindy on October 07, 2011, 06:23:30 PM
An anomalous result doesn't necessarily mean the stats are whacked out one way or another. B-W turned the ball over four times, without those, they were in control. As much as I love statistical analysis, in football it's not always easy to just compare yards. There are penalties, return yardage, and 'garbage' yards gained when defenses get vanilla.

As you should know, teams can bend and not break, giving up 40 or 50 yards, then getting a huge return on an INT or a punt and only have to go 20 yards for a score. Or, penalties could add a lot of yardage forwards or backwards. I think in one NFL game, a team gained 105 yards on an 80 yard drive for a TD because of penalties. That's 25 extra yards that are added to their total.

I contend the B-W result was anomalous because Capital got waxed by the 'Berg 55-3 the next day. I don't think B-W loses to Heidelberg, much less by 52 points.

And in that case, how would you "head-to-head" rankings people suss it out. Team A gets crushed by Team B, who beats Team C handily and then Team C beats Team A by 14 or so....

I understand your point.  I look at the stats to see whether a team had success in long drives and defensive stops to determine if a team was outplayed.  In the case of Elmhurst, they had the more dominant stats which simply suggests to me that without big plays like an interception return and a punt return, which are rare no matter how good a team is, that if the game were played again, there is a good chance the results would be different.  I don't know whether Elmhurst will prove to be top 25 worthy, but I do feel they haven't yet lost their chance to prove it.