BB: Central Region Rankings

[Mr. Ypsi]

Don't know if anyone knows for baseball, but for basketball a QOWI of about 10 is bubble territory for a pool C.  All those QOWIs look too low to be serious contenders.

[BigPoppa]

I am going to bet that with Edgewood struggling a bit last week and Carthage winning 11 straight that the Redmen will show up in the regional rankings this week. It could all come down to a game versus Concordia (IL) on Tuesday.

[Ralph Turner]

Don't know if anyone knows for baseball, but for basketball a QOWI of about 10 is bubble territory for a pool C.  All those QOWIs look too low to be serious contenders.

Yes, I have been wondering about the QOWI's, too.

I think that baseball is different in that teams play a 3 or 4 game series, and rarely sweep the series against comparable talent.

Those 2 extra losses is enough to drop the QOWI by 0.500.

I am wondering if the QOWI bubble is about 9.500.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Big Poppa, you want to try your hand at Carthage's QOWI?  I'm going to try with IWU this evening (though I may be a bit shaky on opponents' in-region records - in basketball it would be a breeze, but the data is not yet up on this baseball site - maybe by next year!).

Augie's sweep of Wheaton obviously improved their in-region winning%, but actually lowered their QOWI - someone computed it at 9.39 before the weekend; I'd guess it is about 9.30 now.

Projecting final QOWIs: tourney wins for Augie, Carthage, and Elmhurst would be 15 each over IWU, Augie, and Carthage; 11 over Elmhurst (8 points less for losses).  Wins and losses for IWU would be reduced by one since they'd be home games.  (These assume that losses would not drop anyone to a lower category, or wins raise them - I don't think anyone is that close to a boundary-line.)

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ralph,

That belatedly occurred to me, also!  Aside from the absolute extremes, winning percentages are rarely as high or low as in basketball, so QOWIs would also tend to be less extreme.  I'm pretty sure the 'bubble' is below 10, but unsure where it is - 9.5-9.6 seems like a pretty good guess.  But those particular QOWIs still seemed a bit low to be viable contenders.

[soxfan14]

It would seem to me that there is one spot open, perhaps 2?, I would think that Edgewood, Augustana and Rockford are battling out for it, with Carthage and Conc-Chicago with outside shots. I show the top 3 as following

Augustana, 22-9 in Regtion (71 %) with QOWI of 9.39, key region games of loss of 2 of 3 to IWU, loss of 2 of 3 to Carthage, loss to Rockford
 
Edgewood, 20-9 in Region (69%) with QOWI of 8.93, key region games of split with Rockford, split with Ripon, win over Washington (MO),

Rockford, 24-8 in Region (75%) with QOWI of 9.16, key region games of split with Edgewood, win over Augustana, loss to IWU, split with Pomona Pitzer.

Alot will still be played out, especially the CCIW teams as many of thier regioinal opponents are teetering between class ratings for QOW points.

If either Rockford or Edgewood wins out thier tourney I would think that would put the winner in semi decent position, the loser definetly on the outs.

Does Rockford have a chance at breaking into the central rankings?They have won 11 of last 12 (only loss to IWU by 1 in 12innings)
And would winning the Nathcon tour give them a outside chance at a ncaa bid?

[goldengear]

Never got around to figuring out Carthage info, if someone has it please chime in, also Conc-Chi who maybe is still alive. For my original 3 contenders for the last? spot

I've got Augustana now at 9.294 with a 25-9 region mark

I've got Edgewood with a 8.87 and 21-10 region mark

I've got Rockford with a 9.278 with a 25-8 region mark

This is through todays action for the teams above, but a word of caution in regards to Augustana, alot of thier opponents are teetering on the border between the point classes, for example Augie has 3 wins over Monmouth, including one today,  who I show as being 15-14 in region going into thier conference tourney so if they tank up there it could cost Augie 6 points which is like .18 to augies qowi. There are also some other opponents who are teetering, I have to take a look to see if any has fallen the right or wrong way for Augie with the last few games of the schedules, so the above qowi of Augie might not be balls on. For Edgewood and Rockford thier numbers should be pretty exact as the NAC has fallen alot clearer as to opponents in region winning percentages.

Also if Edgewood doesn't win the tourney, they will probably drop below .667 as well in region, which will adversly effect Rockford, Concordia etc.

[Ralph Turner]

Rockford gets the split with the West Regionally Ranked team, Pomona-Pitzer!

That is one of the criteria.

[goldengear]

Did some math on Carthage, they seem to be in the middle of the pack of contenders, I have thier region record at 23-9 (.718) and the QOWI at 9.156, same caution must be used as with Carthage as they have teeting conference opponents. Key results are 2 of 3 from Augie, 0 for 3 from IWU.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Unfortunately, late-season games count with the NCAA absolutely no more than early season games - finishing strong probably SHOULD help, but it is NOT among the criteria.  I sympathize with Carthage and Rockford supporters (among others), since IWU lost their first 4 in-region games (and 5 of the first 7) before winning 24 of 27!

If I calculated QOWI correctly (in a few cases I was unsure of in-region record and hoped their overall record would be in the same category), IWU currently stands at 9.794 - probably fairly safe for a C as long as they win at least a couple more but don't win the tourney.

Augie and Carthage both seem a bit low in QOWI (though remember that that is ONLY one of several criteria), but might rise enough in the tourney to be considered if they make the title game.

EDIT: If goldengear is correct about Monmouth, IWU's QOWI is actually 9.91 (would fall to 9.85 if Monmouth goes 0-2).  I apparently found bad data and had them as a sub .333 team!

[goldengear]

Well I show them at 17-15 overall, take away a split with Robert Morris of Springfield (NAIA), as well as a win over Iowa Wesleyan (NAIA). That makes 15-14, but as I look closer I don't think Missouri Baptist is D3 either and they have a loss to them so that would be 15-13, so I think they will hold to the over .500 record.

Corrections appreciated.

[BigPoppa]

CCIW TOURNEY:
On Thursday, May 10, the Red Men open play at the CCIW Baseball Tournament at Illinois Wesleyan University’s Jack Horenberger Field in Bloomington, Ill.  Carthage, second-seeded in the tournament, will take on third-seeded Augustana College (Ill., 29-10) at 6 p.m. on Thursday, May 10.  Top-seeded Illinois Wesleyan will play fourth-seeded Elmhurst College (16-20) in the first game that day at 3 p.m.  The tournament continues with games at 11 a.m., 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. on Friday, May 11.  The championship round begins on Saturday, May 12 at Noon.

http://www.cciw.org/spring_baseball/index.php

NATHcon Tourney:
2007 Baseball Tournament



 
Opening Rounds
Friday, May 11 - RiverHawks Stadium, Rockford, Illinois
Game 1 9:00am #1 Rockford College vs. #4 Marian College
Game 2 12:30pm #2 Edgewood College vs. #3 Concordia University Chicago
Game 3 4:00pm Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner
Game 4 7:30pm Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser
     
Final Rounds
Saturday, May 12 - RiverHawks Stadium, Rockford, Illinois
Game 5 10:00am Game 3 loser vs. Game 4 winner
Game 6 1:30pm Game 3 winner vs. Game 5 winner
Game 7 5:00pm If necessary, same teams as Game 6

http://northernathleticsconf.com/sports/baseball/tournament/

SLIAC Tourney:
http://www.sliac.org/mens3/mbaseball/

IIAC Tourney:
Game Teams Results/Time
1 #4 Central vs. #5 Buena Vista Thursday, 1:00 p.m. at Daniels Park **
2 #3 Loras vs. #6 Simpson Thursday, 1:00 p.m. at Veterans Stadium
3 Game 2 winner vs. #2 Luther Thursday, 4:00 p.m. at Veterans Stadium
4 Game 1 winner vs. #1 Wartburg Thursday, 7:00 p.m. at Veterans Stadium
5 Game 1 loser vs. Game 3 loser Friday, 10:00 am
6 Game 2 loser vs. Game 4 loser Friday, 1:00 pm
7 Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner Friday, 4:00 pm
8 Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner Friday, 7:00 pm
9 Game 7 loser vs. Game 8 winner Saturday, 10:00 am
10 Game 7 winner vs. Game 9 winner Saturday, 1:00 pm
11 Game 7 winner vs. Game 9 winner Saturday, 4:00 pm (if necessary)

http://www.iowaconference.com/men/baseball/tournament/2007.htm

[soxfan14]

New central rankings out

Central
1. Illinois Wesleyan (30-9)
2. Wartburg (26-11)
3. Washington (30-9)
4. Augustana (30-10)
5. Luther (26-9)
6. Carthage (28-11)
7. Edgewood (25-11)
8. Webster (27-12)

[goldengear]

Those are NOT The new rankings, the rankings don't come out until Thursday. That is the ABCA Poll, no bearing on the official NCAA rankings or touney selections.

[soxfan14]

Those are NOT The new rankings, the rankings don't come out until Thursday. That is the ABCA Poll, no bearing on the official NCAA rankings or touney selections.

Sorry, my bad
i'm a idiot