Pool C

Started by Pat Coleman, January 20, 2006, 02:35:54 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

kiko

North Central beats Augustana 69-64 in the CCIW final.

A question for the CCIW Pool C hopefuls is whether the Cardinals are regionally ranked at year-end.  I have no idea how close they might be since they were clearly in win-or-done mode this past week and had zero Pool C hopes.  But if they sneak into the bottom tier of the Central Region rankings with recent wins over Illinois Wesleyan, Carthage, and Augustana, it may affect their conference mates' RRO creds.

iwumichigander

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 25, 2017, 09:46:38 PM
Quote from: realist on February 25, 2017, 09:33:17 PM
MIAA final  Calvin 86  Hope 83

Pop!

Wonder if Augie's 1-2 record will be enough to jump Eau Claire's 0-1.
With North Central defeating Augustana the question maybe if Augustana, IWU and Carthage get ranked ?  That jumbles up the vRRO numbers for CCIW teams.  Add in Calvin over Hope and likely a couple other surprises

iwumichigander

Quote from: kiko on February 25, 2017, 09:50:24 PM
North Central beats Augustana 69-64 in the CCIW final.

A question for the CCIW Pool C hopefuls is whether the Cardinals are regionally ranked at year-end.  I have no idea how close they might be since they were clearly in win-or-done mode this past week and had zero Pool C hopes.  But if they sneak into the bottom tier of the Central Region rankings with recent wins over Illinois Wesleyan, Carthage, and Augustana, it may affect their conference mates' RRO creds.
north central #s well below the other three.  The only way the Cardinals were going to get in was to win the AQ; and, they knew that,

kiko

Quote from: iwumichigander on February 25, 2017, 09:55:51 PM
Quote from: kiko on February 25, 2017, 09:50:24 PM
North Central beats Augustana 69-64 in the CCIW final.

A question for the CCIW Pool C hopefuls is whether the Cardinals are regionally ranked at year-end.  I have no idea how close they might be since they were clearly in win-or-done mode this past week and had zero Pool C hopes.  But if they sneak into the bottom tier of the Central Region rankings with recent wins over Illinois Wesleyan, Carthage, and Augustana, it may affect their conference mates' RRO creds.
north central #s well below the other three.  The only way the Cardinals were going to get in was to win the AQ; and, they knew that,

Read it again.  The point I'm making isn't that they had any prayer of being a Pool C selection.  It's whether they are Regionally Ranked come Sunday.  I have no idea if they will be or not, and don't particularly care since they are in the tournament.  But  Illinois Wesleyan fans should hope they aren't as it will give the Titans two additional vRRO losses.

Titan Q

Quote from: kiko on February 25, 2017, 10:07:16 PM
Read it again.  The point I'm making isn't that they had any prayer of being a Pool C selection.  It's whether they are Regionally Ranked come Sunday.  I have no idea if they will be or not, and don't particularly care since they are in the tournament.  But  Illinois Wesleyan fans should hope they aren't as it will give the Titans two additional vRRO losses.

Yes, very good point.  IWU could not afford for Carthage to drop out of the regional rankings in favor of NCC.  That'd be losing 2-0 and picking up 0-2.

iwumichigander

Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2017, 10:14:35 PM
Quote from: kiko on February 25, 2017, 10:07:16 PM
Read it again.  The point I'm making isn't that they had any prayer of being a Pool C selection.  It's whether they are Regionally Ranked come Sunday.  I have no idea if they will be or not, and don't particularly care since they are in the tournament.  But  Illinois Wesleyan fans should hope they aren't as it will give the Titans two additional vRRO losses.

Yes, very good point.  IWU could not afford for Carthage to drop out of the regional rankings in favor of NCC.  That'd be losing 2-0 and picking up 0-2.
Kiko - I saw your point.  My point is without being in the Pool C conversation, I do not see North Central getting ranked regardless of tonight's outcome

fantastic50

With the only relevant remaining games tonight being the NWC and SCIAC finals, here's what I've got

Officially clinched berth (31)
A) UW-River Falls (22-3, 0.592, 8-3, CE#1) (#3/#3) won WIAC AQ
A) Washington U. (20-5, 0.577, 7-2, CE#2) (#7/#6) won UAA AQ
A) Marietta (24-4, 0.580, 4-4, GL#1) (#5/#5) won OAC AQ
A) Chris Newport (25-2, 0.534, 4-2, MA#1) (#6/#7) won CAC AQ
A) Neumann (25-2, 0.516, 6-0, AT#1) (#10/#8) won CSAC AQ
A) Hardin-Simmons (22-6, 0.567, 4-1, SO#1) (#11/#11) won ASC AQ
A) Lycoming (22-4, 0.531, 1-1, MA#3) (#20/#20) won MACC AQ
A) Ramapo (25-2, 0.506, 7-2, AT#2) (#18/#12) won NJAC AQ
A) Swarthmore (22-5, 0.528, 1-1, MA#4) (#26/#25) won CC AQ
A) St John Fisher (22-5, 0.553, 0-3, EA#2) (#14/#27) won E8 AQ
A) Scranton (21-6, 0.541, 8-3, MA#5) (#27/#16) won LAND AQ
A) Oswego State (20-6, 0.530, 3-2, EA#5) (#35/#30) won SUNYAC AQ
A) Wooster (21-7, 0.554, 5-5, GL#5) (#25/#21) won NCAC AQ
A) E Connecticut (20-8, 0.568, 4-4, NE#8) (#24/#22) won LEC AQ
A) Ripon (20-5, 0.491, 1-1, CE) (#71/#70) won MWC AQ
A) Misericordia (20-7, 0.518, 1-4, AT) (#65/#55) won MACF AQ
A) Staten Island (21-5, 0.505, 0-4, AT#7) (#49/#64) won CUNYAC AQ
A) Bethel (MN) (20-6, 0.501, 2-3, WE) (#74/#60) won MIAC AQ
A) Husson (21-6, 0.493, 0-0, NE) (#79/#77) won NAC AQ
A) Albertus Magnus (23-4, 0.493, 0-2, NE) (#43/#68) won GNAC AQ
A) Nichols (23-5, 0.484, 2-1, NE) (#67/#66) won CCC AQ
A) Thomas More (20-6, 0.504, 1-0, GL) (#68/#58) won PAC AQ
A) Farmingdale State (20-7, 0.483, 0-2, AT) (#109/#97) won SKY AQ
A) Wartburg (17-9, 0.559, 5-2, WE) (#53/#65) won IIAC AQ
A) N Central (IL) (17-9, 0.557, 3-4, CE) (#59/#73) won CCIW AQ
A) Becker (19-8, 0.500, 0-2, NE) (#105/#84) won NECC AQ
A) Calvin (16-8, 0.516, 3-3, GL) (#104/#82) won MIAA AQ
A) Union (NY) (16-9, 0.538, 1-6, EA#8) (#88/#99) won LL AQ
A) Salem State (17-10, 0.516, 1-4, NE) (#126/#117) won MASCAC AQ
A) Westminster (MO) (18-8, 0.484, 0-1, CE) (#137/#108) won SLIAC AQ
A) LaGrange (16-9, 0.513, 1-2, SO) (#124/#105) won USAC AQ

Locks or near-locks (11)
A) Babson (25-1, 0.580, 4-1, NE#1) (#2/#2) lock, 81% NEWMAC AQ
A) Whitman (26-0, 0.541, 4-0, WE#1) (#4/#4) lock, 76% NWC AQ
A) Middlebury (23-3, 0.612, 6-3, NE#2) (#1/#1) lock, 72% NESCAC AQ
C#1) Williams (19-7, 0.593, 7-4, NE#6) (#9/#9) lock, 28% NESCAC AQ
C#2) Rochester (21-4, 0.539, 4-2, EA#1) (#17/#13) lock, no AQ
C#3) Susquehanna (20-5, 0.559, 4-4, MA#2) (#13/#14) lock, no AQ
C#4) Tufts (20-6, 0.570, 4-4, NE#3) (#15/#15) near-lock, no AQ
C#5) UW-Whitewater (20-6, 0.568, 3-5, CE#3) (#16/#18) near-lock, no AQ
C#6) Wesleyan (CT) (19-6, 0.561, 4-3, NE#4) (#21/#17) near-lock, no AQ
C#7) Amherst (17-7, 0.603, 5-5, NE#5) (#8/#10) near-lock, no AQ
A) Hanover (20-3, 0.524, 2-2, GL#2) (#19/#19) near-lock, 71% HCAC AQ

Strong position (5) (80%+ for Pool C, if no AQ)
C#8) Whitworth (23-3, 0.528, 0-2, WE#2) (#12/#23) 98% (24% NWC or 98% C)
C#9) New Jersey City (21-7, 0.533, 5-4, AT#3) (#41/#29) 98% C
C#10) Emory (18-7, 0.551, 2-3, SO#2) (#34/#32) 98% C
C#11) Hope (20-5, 0.526, 2-1, GL#3) (#32/#24) 97% C
C#12) Salisbury (20-7, 0.548, 3-4, MA#6) (#31/#28) 95% C

Bubble teams if no AQ (16) (20-79% for Pool C if no AQ)
C#13) Skidmore (19-7, 0.525, 6-1, EA#3) (#62/#31) 79% C
A) Guilford (22-5, 0.511, 4-2, SO#3) (#38/#26) 91% (60% ODAC or 77% C)
C#14) Mt St Joseph (19-5, 0.509, 2-1, GL#4) (#51/#37) 84% (29% HCAC or 77% C)
C#15) Cabrini (19-6, 0.532, 2-3, AT#4) (#37/#33) 68% C
C#16) Augustana (19-8, 0.543, 2-2, CE#5) (#50/#38) 65% C
C#17) Keene State (19-9, 0.578, 3-4, NE#9) (#28/#40) 64% C
C#18) St Lawrence (19-6, 0.524, 3-5, EA#4) (#45/#41) 63% C
C#19) MIT (20-6, 0.549, 0-4, NE#7) (#23/#43) 63% (19% NEWMAC or 55% C)
A) Benedictine (IL) (22-3, 0.497, 1-0, CE#7) (#29/#42) 89% (76% NACC or 53% C)
C#20) UW-Eau Claire (17-8, 0.571, 3-4, CE#4) (#30/#44) 51% C
projected cut line
C#21) St Thomas (MN) (19-7, 0.530, 1-2, WE#3) (#54/#46) 48% C
C#22) Illinois Wesleyan (17-8, 0.557, 6-2, CE) (#44/#35) 44% C
C#23) LeTourneau (22-5, 0.499, 2-2, SO#5) (#55/#50) 43% C
C#24) UW-Oshkosh (17-10, 0.602, 5-6, CE#8) (#22/#67) 34% C
C#25) Brockport (19-7, 0.522, 2-3, EA#6) (#64/#47) 30% C
C#26) Concordia (TX) (18-7, 0.553, 1-4, SO#4) (#33/#36) 29% C

Longshots for Pool C (9) (5-19% if no AQ)
C#27) Endicott (22-6, 0.523, 1-1, NE#10) (#36/#34) 18% C
C#28) Carthage (17-8, 0.554, 2-2, CE#6) (#47/#52) 16% C
C#29) St John's (MN) (19-8, 0.518, 2-3, WE) (#80/#57) 14% C
C#30) Nebraska Wesleyan (17-7, 0.525, 1-1, WE#5) (#72/#53) 14% C
C#31) Loras (18-8, 0.549, 1-1, WE#4) (#46/#48) 12% C
A) C-M-S (19-3, 0.490, 1-1, WE#6) (#42/#59) 63% (59% SCIAC or 10% C)
C#32) John Carroll (17-8, 0.560, 2-5, GL#6) (#40/#54) 7% C
C#33) Moravian (18-7, 0.530, 5-5, MA#8) (#61/#39) 5% C
C#34) Denison (22-5, 0.476, 3-3, GL#7) (#81/#79) 5% C

Other conference favorites (not realistic Pool C candidates)
A) Morrisville State (21-5, 0.475, 0-0, EA) (#87/#92) 78% NEAC
A) Rhodes (16-10, 0.447, 0-1, SO) (#249/#195) 72% SAA
A) Medaille (20-5, 0.464, 0-0, GL) (#106/#104) 69% AMCC
A) Schreiner (15-11, 0.553, 0-5, SO) (#99/#146) 57% SCAC
A) Northwestern (MN) (18-7, 0.454, 0-0, WE) (#171/#134) 53% UMAC

Greek Tragedy

No offense, but I'm mildly amused of all this talk about IWU somehow getting a Pool C bid (or getting ranked for that matter). Yeah, they beat Augie earlier this week and Eau Claire went 0-1, but IWU wasn't even ranked. They have to somehow jump Augie, who was 1-2, Carthage and even Oshkosh, who went 2-1 this week with 2 of those games against regionally ranked Whitewater and River Falls. I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.
Pointers
Breed of a Champion
2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

TGHIJGSTO!!!

Titan Q

#7103
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 25, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
No offense, but I'm mildly amused of all this talk about IWU somehow getting a Pool C bid (or getting ranked for that matter). Yeah, they beat Augie earlier this week and Eau Claire went 0-1, but IWU wasn't even ranked. They have to somehow jump Augie, who was 1-2, Carthage and even Oshkosh, who went 2-1 this week with 2 of those games against regionally ranked Whitewater and River Falls. I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.

You are making too much of the Week 3 ranking, Greek.  That is a snapshot using data through Sunday.  There have been many games across the country since Sunday and the data changes quite a bit daily...even though new official rankings don't come out daily.  But to project Pool C you have to, in effect, create new regional rankings.

IWU's numbers are competitive down at the end of the bubble, and IWU clearly has a better case than Oshkosh and Carthage.  Again, Oshkosh has a .630 WP - that is just not competitive in the process.

The problem now is that Augustana is probably going to be ranked ahead of IWU (they lost in the CCIW title), and Augie will sit on the board a long time - heck UW-Eau Claire will be on the board a long time, and Augie will be after them. Had Augie won, IWU would have been on the board for a long time...now maybe 2-3 rounds tops (if Augie gets picked at all). Augie losing tonight, and being Pool C, really hurt IWU's longshot chances.

kiko

#7104
Quote from: iwumichigander on February 25, 2017, 10:20:08 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2017, 10:14:35 PM
Quote from: kiko on February 25, 2017, 10:07:16 PM
Read it again.  The point I'm making isn't that they had any prayer of being a Pool C selection.  It's whether they are Regionally Ranked come Sunday.  I have no idea if they will be or not, and don't particularly care since they are in the tournament.  But  Illinois Wesleyan fans should hope they aren't as it will give the Titans two additional vRRO losses.

Yes, very good point.  IWU could not afford for Carthage to drop out of the regional rankings in favor of NCC.  That'd be losing 2-0 and picking up 0-2.
Kiko - I saw your point.  My point is without being in the Pool C conversation, I do not see North Central getting ranked regardless of tonight's outcome

Their credentials aren't all that different from Illinois Wesleyan's, and they have two H2H wins if a conversation comes down to the two of them.  The Central committee could choose to deprioritize the Sons of Warden given they have nothing to gain from a RR, but I think the conversation about them is not as slam-dunk as you are suggesting.

From above, with the caveat that the vRRO in this will be shift depending on whom in the CCIW is and is not ranked:
N Central (IL) (17-9, 0.557, 3-4, CE) (#59/#73) won CCIW AQ
Illinois Wesleyan (17-8, 0.557, 6-2, CE) (#44/#35) 44% C
Carthage (17-8, 0.554, 2-2, CE#6) (#47/#52) 16% C


Titan Q

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 25, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.

UW-Eau Claire and Augustana will be ranked ahead of IWU.  Carthage will not.  If Augie gets selected (and I think they will), IWU will hit the board very late for the last couple picks or so.

Gregory Sager

Everybody needs to stop typing and watch the UMAC championship game. It's now heading into quadruple overtime.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

KnightSlappy

Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2017, 10:46:04 PM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 25, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.

UW-Eau Claire and Augustana will be ranked ahead of IWU.  Carthage will not.  If Augie gets selected (and I think they will), IWU will hit the board very late for the last couple picks or so.

Do we know Augustana will be ahead of IWU?

Titan Q

#7108
Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 25, 2017, 11:15:19 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2017, 10:46:04 PM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 25, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.

UW-Eau Claire and Augustana will be ranked ahead of IWU.  Carthage will not.  If Augie gets selected (and I think they will), IWU will hit the board very late for the last couple picks or so.

Do we know Augustana will be ahead of IWU?

No.  It'd be very easy to argue that IWU's resume is better.  (But that depends on final regional rankings and RRO too.)

* Illinois Wesleyan: .680/.556/6-2
* Carthage: .680/.553/2-2
* Augustana: .704/.542/2-2
* North Park: .692/.531/2-3

IWU also has the win at Wash U, while Augie lost at home to Wash U...stuff like that comes into play potentially.

Augie vs IWU in that final Central Region ranking is tight.

Gregory Sager

Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2017, 11:16:34 PM
Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 25, 2017, 11:15:19 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2017, 10:46:04 PM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 25, 2017, 10:30:30 PM
I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.

UW-Eau Claire and Augustana will be ranked ahead of IWU.  Carthage will not.  If Augie gets selected (and I think they will), IWU will hit the board very late for the last couple picks or so.

Do we know Augustana will be ahead of IWU?

No.  It'd be very easy to argue that IWU's resume is better.  (But that depends on final regional rankings and RRO too.)

* Illinois Wesleyan: .680/.556/6-2
* Carthage: .680/.553/2-2
* Augustana: .704/.542/2-2
* North Park: .692/.531/2-3

IWU also has the win at Wash U, while Augie lost at home to Wash U...stuff like that comes into play potentially.

Augie vs IWU in that final Central Region ranking is tight.

Record vs. common opponents: AC 13-7 (.650), IWU 11-7 (.611)

(Augie went 11-5 in conference play, IWU went 9-7. Add 1-1 to Augie's common-opponents mark via conference tourney play, so that's 12-6. Each team played MacMurray and Wash U in non-conference play; AC went 1-1 against the Highlanders and Bears, while IWU went 2-0. Ergo, Augie ends up 13-7 and IWU ends up 11-7.)

The two teams split their two games, so head-to-head is a wash. But Augie wins the common-opponents criterion.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell