Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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smedindy

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2017, 11:34:31 AM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 16, 2017, 11:06:05 AM
if two PAC teams go 10-0, do we basically go down to four Pool C bids?

No, there's still 5 Pool C bids.

Both teams will go, and take a Pool C with them, but that's one of the five.

wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2017, 11:44:51 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2017, 11:34:31 AM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 16, 2017, 11:06:05 AM
if two PAC teams go 10-0, do we basically go down to four Pool C bids?

No, there's still 5 Pool C bids.

Both teams will go, and take a Pool C with them, but that's one of the five.

That seems safe, but I woulnd't put a 100% lock on it.  CWRU's SOS is mega bad.  Like, almost worst in the division bad.  It will come up some, but it's still gonna be bad.  And if they wind up with an SOS ranking of 200+ and zero results against ranked opponents...who knows.  They probably don't get left out.  Probably...but the committee has favored and rewarded strong schedules recently (UWP last year...paying extra to reward HSU's season also last year).  I think it's very likely that 10-0 CWRU goes in as an at-large.  I don't know if it's automatic at this point.  Their profile beyond win% is really not good. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

I don't know how much control they have over their SOS. Case's schedule is backloaded, and they played Chicago, a traditional rival, in non-conference. Chicago's profile was no doubt better in the SAA than the MWC.

With Case's last three games, they could be 7-3 and then it would all be moot - like last year when they lost their last game to C-M.

Wasn't Centre's profile mediocre when they went 10-0?

merlecanlas

If both W&J and Case go 10-0, it looks like the tie-breaker would be "3) strength of conference wins (conference winning percentage of teams you beat in 8 PAC games" (http://www.pacathletics.org/sports/2012/9/24/pacsportsrulesregs1.aspx?id=29&#football #14)

It seems Case might be on the bubble of an at-large bid due to SOS, but what if Case gets the auto bid and leaves W&J for the pool C?  SJF isn't helping W&J's SOS at all.  I'm wondering who would be in more trouble as the Pool C candidate, Case or W&J?

a weird upset here or there and there might be some big time names sitting at home for the playoffs

Ralph Turner

#19
About the paucity of Pool C bids, I posted this on the Pool B board a few days ago.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2017, 04:03:17 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 09, 2017, 11:58:37 AM
If Springfield loses, for sure.  Hardin-Simmons may well be selected before Springfield even if Springfield gets to 10-0 and Springfield would wind up going in via Pool C as Centre did a few years ago.
Wally, I am glad to hear your assessment. I did not want to sound like a "homer" on that point.

I would love to see HSU versus Springfield, even if it meant flying the Cowboys to Massachusetts!

A Pool B bid for HSU would take care of worthy team

Pool C for undefeated Springfield would seal up the East Region for a Pool C bid, and then throw the remaining 4 Pool C bids back to the selection committee.

Back in 2005, we had the Division IV Discussion when about 100 schools wanted to pull out.

If we had D-IV and a bid-to-access ratio of 1:6.5 for football, like we do for Hoops and Baseball, then we might have about a 12-team playoff for D-IV*** and its 80 schools and about a 26-team playoff of the remaining 170 schools in D-3.  Those extra 6 bids would alleviate the log jam that we have with the #2 and #3 and #4 contenders for Pool C in the Regional Rankings.




***Perhaps the NESCAC might participate with institutions of like minded mission / vision. There would less conflict with final exams.


wally_wabash

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 16, 2017, 12:40:38 PM
If both W&J and Case go 10-0, it looks like the tie-breaker would be "3) strength of conference wins (conference winning percentage of teams you beat in 8 PAC games" (http://www.pacathletics.org/sports/2012/9/24/pacsportsrulesregs1.aspx?id=29&#football #14)

This is actually a good point and I hadn't considered that CWRU might get the league's Pool A bid.  With Thomas More losing a lot of games, this isn't as cut and dry as it was last year.  A quick glance looks like it comes down to whether or not Grove City finishes with a better record than Thomas More.  Still probably Thomas More which means CWRU still loses that tiebreak, but there's still work to do for Thomas More and Grove City before we can say that definitively. 

Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2017, 12:34:36 PM
Wasn't Centre's profile mediocre when they went 10-0?

Yes it was, and Centre was also not selected at all in the Pool B (2 bids in 2014) and probably not until one of the last 2-3 picks in Pool C (6 bids in 2014).  That was a product of the regional rankings...same South region that CWRU is in now.  If the South RAC spits on that SOS and keeps CWRU ranked behind an ASC runner up, maybe an SAA runner up, maybe a CC runner up...CWRU could definitely not be safe. 

I did a projection the week before the 2014 selections were made that had Centre out.  They were out because they were ranked too low to ever get to the table.  They were never even considered in that mock selection.  Ultimately, Centre did go in and everything kind of worked out the way we thought it should, but the scenario where a 10-0 team with an extremely poor profile doesn't get in is plausible. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

merlecanlas

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2017, 01:26:43 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 16, 2017, 12:40:38 PM
If both W&J and Case go 10-0, it looks like the tie-breaker would be "3) strength of conference wins (conference winning percentage of teams you beat in 8 PAC games" (http://www.pacathletics.org/sports/2012/9/24/pacsportsrulesregs1.aspx?id=29&#football #14)

This is actually a good point and I hadn't considered that CWRU might get the league's Pool A bid.  With Thomas More losing a lot of games, this isn't as cut and dry as it was last year.  A quick glance looks like it comes down to whether or not Grove City finishes with a better record than Thomas More.  Still probably Thomas More which means CWRU still loses that tiebreak, but there's still work to do for Thomas More and Grove City before we can say that definitively. 

Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2017, 12:34:36 PM
Wasn't Centre's profile mediocre when they went 10-0?

Yes it was, and Centre was also not selected at all in the Pool B (2 bids in 2014) and probably not until one of the last 2-3 picks in Pool C (6 bids in 2014).  That was a product of the regional rankings...same South region that CWRU is in now.  If the South RAC spits on that SOS and keeps CWRU ranked behind an ASC runner up, maybe an SAA runner up, maybe a CC runner up...CWRU could definitely not be safe. 

I did a projection the week before the 2014 selections were made that had Centre out.  They were out because they were ranked too low to ever get to the table.  They were never even considered in that mock selection.  Ultimately, Centre did go in and everything kind of worked out the way we thought it should, but the scenario where a 10-0 team with an extremely poor profile doesn't get in is plausible.

If it's basically Grove City vs Thomas Moore to determine the PAC Pool A, then it sort of looks like W&J has the advantage since TM beat GC.    Stranger things have happened I guess

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2017, 11:34:31 AM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 16, 2017, 11:06:05 AM
if two PAC teams go 10-0, do we basically go down to four Pool C bids?

No, there's still 5 Pool C bids.

Yeah - one team in the PAC gets the AQ, the other enters the Pool C fray for the 5 bids. Not that an undefeated team wouldn't make the tournament, but I don't think there is a rubber stamp, either.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Not really Pool C but no playoff thread to discuss it in yet.

Based on possible playoff teams... could it be possible to have a bracket with the SCIAC champ at UMHB, somebody (Plymouth St if they get in?) vs Husson... then NWC champ vs Hardin-Simmons, Huntingdon @ Berry and thus avoid a potential Texas rematch (or UMHB/Linfield rematch) until round 3? Two flights round 1, two flights round 2 and you group all the isolated teams who would likely need flights anyway in one bracket.
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wally_wabash

The committee chair this year is the associate AD at UMHB, so if she can't make sure that an ASC rematch doesn't happen in Round 1, then it really isn't possible. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bluestreak66

Wally, when you eliminate JCU on this list this week, will you make them a deeper shade of red than everyone else? I want to over dramatically emphasize how much they've disappointed me this year lol!
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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 18, 2017, 09:14:34 AM
The committee chair this year is the associate AD at UMHB, so if she can't make sure that an ASC rematch doesn't happen in Round 1, then it really isn't possible.

Technically she won't be able to take part in a conversation regarding her "team." On men's basketball committee, they still make sure everyone is involved. On the women's basketball committee in the past, they have actually removed people completely from the call. I like the men's plan, but it would still require the chair from staying out of conversations regarding her school.

The only chance the NCAA keeps the Texas schools from playing one another is if they suddenly decide to spend more money. Not saying that isn't possible. We have seen hints in the last year of more spending for common-sense things, but this one is a bit tougher considering every flight in football requires a charter flight - not commercial flights like a lot of other sports.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

wally_wabash

That's interesting, Dave.  Considering where UMHB is likely to end up at the end of the regular season, are you saying that the committee chair has to sit out during the Pool B conversation (for at least one round) and then also sit out when they are bracketing?  And then where is that line- does she have to sit out just while they determine the first round matchup?  The pod?  The whole region?

Berry's HC is also on the committee.  Could you have a scenario where 25% of your committee has to sit out for 25% of the bracketing process?  Maybe?  That seems excessive to me though.     
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 18, 2017, 12:58:39 PM
That's interesting, Dave.  Considering where UMHB is likely to end up at the end of the regular season, are you saying that the committee chair has to sit out during the Pool B conversation (for at least one round) and then also sit out when they are bracketing?  And then where is that line- does she have to sit out just while they determine the first round matchup?  The pod?  The whole region?

Berry's HC is also on the committee.  Could you have a scenario where 25% of your committee has to sit out for 25% of the bracketing process?  Maybe?  That seems excessive to me though.   

This depends on the committee (though, I wish it was more of a rule). Let me walk it through:\

- For picks, those who have direct connections to the school (coach or admin) must remove themselves from the call. Some mute the call and listen, some hang up, I have heard lots of versions. They can not take part as long as their institution is "at the table." Once that is taken care of, they can return to the call. There has been some inconsistencies in what I am told, but it appears the more common tactic is to have another committee member from that respective RAC step in for that individual who has stepped off the call. However, I know that to not always be the case. I can't speak for football as I have not dived into the football committee's habits or even if they have changed.

- Bracketing: the men's basketball committee has told me on several occasions that those who have direct connections to schools in the tournament still remain involved, but away from their own institution. They may work on another section of the bracket or on other details. They cannot participate when it comes directly to their institution especially in the early rounds. Now, the women's basketball committee has told me that they remove those direct connections completely from the process and not have them involved at all. We had a case a few years ago where that basically left three or four people working on the brackets because four or five of the committee members had teams in the tournament. I told them that made less sense and did hint that having them work elsewhere only made sense. I got a hint that maybe that is something they are considering moving forward (it wasn't a major factor last year).

So in this case, she cannot be involved with UMHB's selection at all, though we know it will be taken care of anyway so her time away from the phone will be fairly brief. As for bracketing, it depends what football has for their own policy, but she will at the very least have nothing to do with UMHB's bracketing and other decisions. She can work on other things if involved.

Also keep in mind that more and more committees, men's basketball in particular, are starting to do the selection and bracketing process weeks in advance. They go through dummy scenarios and start compiling things well in advance. I have not said this before, but I know the men's basketball committee basically had a few mock brackets ready before Selection Sunday. They just had to figure out a few oddities or up-in-the-air scenarios before moving forward. Keep in mind, the committee chair had a team in the tournament due to an AQ last year. Football may have some of these items taken care of well before anyone has to step off a call.

I hope that helps.
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smedindy

Interesting.

Could the NCAA accept a gift paying for flights? If someone wanted to pony up money for two additional charter flights, could the NCAA accept that?

(Don't look at me, I work in non-profit fundraising - I don't actually HAVE that kid of scratch...)