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Messages - WRMUalum13

#1
Quote from: Raider 68 on December 16, 2023, 08:40:01 AM
In a year of D3 surprises, Cortland came through with a big win. A great offensive show came down to a key defensive
play. Don't quite agree that NCC was the most dominant team in the last 10 years, but they have been very good and
will be going forward. it will interesting to see if in 2024, the color purple shows up again. I would not bet against it.

Well after last night clearly not!

But going into this game they had the all time D3 Passer efficiency rating, were approaching the single season scoring record and had probably the hardest path to the playoffs of any team in the last decade (well at least on paper). They were a huge outlier on all the computer rankings too, in Logan Hansen's ratings they had the highest score of any team since the 90s.
#2
Quote from: edward de vere on December 16, 2023, 11:38:17 AM
Quote from: HScoach on December 16, 2023, 10:46:32 AM
Quote from: Dr. Acula on December 15, 2023, 10:19:44 PM
With that run it's over.  Congrats to Cortland.  And yes every Mount fan, player and coach should be puking right now.

Mount would have been run off the field by either of those teams

The voice of reason puts in an appearance and hooray for that.  I find it hard to believe that Mount Union would have beaten either of those teams last night.  Very hard to believe.

That's what I was thinking, Mount didn't lose to Alma because of a bad luck, or fluke plays, they got straight up outplayed.
#3
Quote from: D3fanboy on December 15, 2023, 10:41:38 PM
NCC thought so as well

IIRC Correctly Pat's quote was "they are head shoulders and torso above everyone else" or at least they'd been to that point in the season. Still can't wrap my head around this upset.

I mean the team that lost to Susquehenna and barely escaped Grove City was the ones to take them down?
#4
General football / Re: Bracket Projection - 2023
December 15, 2023, 10:43:17 PM
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.

... well this didn't age well
#5
So happy the Red Dragons proved me wrong. I predicted a 63-21 blowout in favor of the Cardinals, absolutely thought the Cortland quad was one of the weakest in the field. I was very wrong.
#6
This is really unreal, for most of the season I thought NCC was the most dominant D3 Team we'd seen in a decade... I thought they were head and shoulders above everyone else. I guess not. Way to go Cortland.

T
#7
Everything I thought I knew about D3 football was wrong
#8
Everything I thought I knew about D3 Football was wrong
#9
Quote from: jknezek on December 14, 2023, 07:06:17 PM
Quote from: RaidersRGr8t on December 11, 2023, 01:14:58 PM
FYI, I heard a rumor and this is what I found:

https://ferrumpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2024

Dear lord that is not going to go well for Ferrum....

The only OOC game I was excited about in the last decade was Westminster in 2021, I think they were defending PAC champs or something that year. I think the only reason that was only a 1 year game was because the PAC went totally insular the following year.. or Covid timing messed it up. Anyway Every other OOC matchup has been middling to bad teams. It's too bad the NCAA committee basically doesn't count any non D3 games, I'd love to see Mount play Ashland Walsh or Tiffin
#10
Quote from: D3fanboy on December 14, 2023, 03:25:21 PM
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 14, 2023, 03:11:07 PM
Quote from: Ice Bear on December 14, 2023, 02:03:56 PM
Papa Ice Bear and I were discussing the Stagg Bowl last night and I was very surprised by his take. He seems very confident that Cortland is going to win this football game, by more than one score. I was admittedly taken aback by this and his reasoning was simple (yet not based on any comparative analysis/data). He spoke about the way in which this Cortland offense is playing and how this team seems to be peaking on all cylinders. The Red Dragons took Alma's counter punches and ended up outpunching them with a very impressive second half. More importantly the Cortland defense, since that second half of the Alma game, has been nasty (the D has always been pointed out as their obvious weakness). They quieted the Alma offense and made the Yellowjacket offense look absolutely ordinary. He says he just believes they are going to roll into Salem and surprise again doing the same things they have been doing on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. He's been watching division 3 football for over 5 decades.

While I still don't agree, and I stick to my prediction with confidence (NCC 56- Cortland 17), his take at the very least has given me some more perspective into what could happen. Into the fact that Cortland's play has convinced some that this team may indeed be special. Special enough to defeat the very best team in the nation. If it does happen, we'll have no farther to look than the last two weeks, the improved play of the defense, and the incredible efficiency of this talented offense.

To me, a team and program like NCC sits atop the top tier of D3 football, like many have before, with so many looking up at them, hoping for a real challenge from a team that is not in that top tier. I believe after last week, Wartburg sits in that top tier and many from the East/Northeast would give plenty to be able to say a team from our neck of the woods sits there as well. It's been a long time.

Reflecting on NCC's playoff run, last weeks close battle provides me with more pause than if NCC had rolled the Knights. This team, this championship team showed they can take a punch in the mouth and respond, even when they haven't been punched in that specific manner (referring to NCC falling behind on Saturday) in a very long time. Who knows what will happen. Either way I am excited for anyone and everyone involved. I absolutely love this time of year. I just can't be convinced at this point that a team from the Northeast could possibly be the best in the land.

The more I think about it the more lopsided my prediction gets in favor of NCC. I'm going with 63-21 (not seeing any field goals in this one). I just think this year's bracket was really skewed and the talent level in Cortland's quad just won't prepare them much for the speed and athleticism they're going to see tomorrow night. Alma was likely the closest in terms of speed but that game would have been much more competitive with a healthy QB.

I calculated North Central's Drive Success rate by starting position through their 4 playoff games (only considering a TD "success") and the numbers are pretty scary if you're a red dragon.

Starting Position and % time that drive ended in a TD
Own 0-9 40%
Own 10-19 50%
Own 20-29 50%
Own 30-39 62.5%
Own 40- Midfield - 80%
Opp Midfield to 40 83.3 %

Considering that 3/4 teams NCC played in the playoffs had better Defenses than Cortland (at least according to Massey ratings) these numbers probably don't quite do the Cardinals offense justice for what we should expect against Cortland.

Only thing that gives me hope for a good game is that maybe Cortland is just peaking at the right time, and NCC will overlook them / be worn down from their gauntlet to get to Salem.

nope, it'll get ugly....quick

To be fair, my offiical prediction is 63-21
#11
Quote from: Ice Bear on December 14, 2023, 02:03:56 PM
Papa Ice Bear and I were discussing the Stagg Bowl last night and I was very surprised by his take. He seems very confident that Cortland is going to win this football game, by more than one score. I was admittedly taken aback by this and his reasoning was simple (yet not based on any comparative analysis/data). He spoke about the way in which this Cortland offense is playing and how this team seems to be peaking on all cylinders. The Red Dragons took Alma's counter punches and ended up outpunching them with a very impressive second half. More importantly the Cortland defense, since that second half of the Alma game, has been nasty (the D has always been pointed out as their obvious weakness). They quieted the Alma offense and made the Yellowjacket offense look absolutely ordinary. He says he just believes they are going to roll into Salem and surprise again doing the same things they have been doing on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. He's been watching division 3 football for over 5 decades.

While I still don't agree, and I stick to my prediction with confidence (NCC 56- Cortland 17), his take at the very least has given me some more perspective into what could happen. Into the fact that Cortland's play has convinced some that this team may indeed be special. Special enough to defeat the very best team in the nation. If it does happen, we'll have no farther to look than the last two weeks, the improved play of the defense, and the incredible efficiency of this talented offense.

To me, a team and program like NCC sits atop the top tier of D3 football, like many have before, with so many looking up at them, hoping for a real challenge from a team that is not in that top tier. I believe after last week, Wartburg sits in that top tier and many from the East/Northeast would give plenty to be able to say a team from our neck of the woods sits there as well. It's been a long time.

Reflecting on NCC's playoff run, last weeks close battle provides me with more pause than if NCC had rolled the Knights. This team, this championship team showed they can take a punch in the mouth and respond, even when they haven't been punched in that specific manner (referring to NCC falling behind on Saturday) in a very long time. Who knows what will happen. Either way I am excited for anyone and everyone involved. I absolutely love this time of year. I just can't be convinced at this point that a team from the Northeast could possibly be the best in the land.

The more I think about it the more lopsided my prediction gets in favor of NCC. I'm going with 63-21 (not seeing any field goals in this one). I just think this year's bracket was really skewed and the talent level in Cortland's quad just won't prepare them much for the speed and athleticism they're going to see tomorrow night. Alma was likely the closest in terms of speed but that game would have been much more competitive with a healthy QB.

I calculated North Central's Drive Success rate by starting position through their 4 playoff games (only considering a TD "success") and the numbers are pretty scary if you're a red dragon.

Starting Position and % time that drive ended in a TD
Own 0-9 40%
Own 10-19 50%
Own 20-29 50%
Own 30-39 62.5%
Own 40- Midfield - 80%
Opp Midfield to 40 83.3 %

Considering that 3/4 teams NCC played in the playoffs had better Defenses than Cortland (at least according to Massey ratings) these numbers probably don't quite do the Cardinals offense justice for what we should expect against Cortland.

Only thing that gives me hope for a good game is that maybe Cortland is just peaking at the right time, and NCC will overlook them / be worn down from their gauntlet to get to Salem.



#12
Quote from: robertgoulet on December 12, 2023, 04:24:46 PM
It's me again, back to talk about the size of the O and D lines of NCC's playoff opponent.

Cortland has some beef in the trenches!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Obviously things like technique and athleticism can be more important, but looking at the numbers Cortland matches up well size-wise against the Cardinals. I was a bit surprised to see that Cortland is slightly bigger on both sides of the LOS. NCC has the best O line in the country, but at least they shouldn't just be able to walk all over Cortland's 4 down linemen. (though I wouldn't' be all that surprised if they did!)

Cortland OL average height and weight 6-3" 290lbs
NCC OL average height and weight  6-2" 280lbs

Cortland DL average height and weight 6-2" 268lbs
NCC DL average height and weight 6-1.75" 266lbs
#13
Quote from: Raider 68 on December 12, 2023, 08:54:29 AM
Quote from: Kira & Jaxon's Dad on December 12, 2023, 07:35:05 AM
I don't think Kevin Burke is leaving an FCS Assistant Coaching position to come back to Mt Union.

I also don't think Mt. Union fires Coach Dartt unless there is a major fall off.

I'm excited to see what changes occur next season both on the field and if they bring in an OC.

Agree, I would bet though the decision to hire an OC has been made, The question is who could take Mount's
spartan, predictable Offense back to where the Raiders were. 2024 will be a real challenge with so many
areas to fill. The good news at QB. Beadrie returning gives the offense a new dimension. The Raiders
have had a few very talented multi-dimensional QB's. Micheli, Burke, D-Angelo Fulford.

Don't forget Taurice Scott! He was incredibly dynamic as QB
#14
Quote from: Desertraider on December 11, 2023, 06:42:28 PM
Quote from: #1OacFan on December 10, 2023, 10:05:47 PM
LK's other daughter's name is Faith, which is what many of you need to have right now, Dartt winning % is .933!  For the record LK's winning % was .929 and was only .755 after his 1st 45 games. 

If we hire an OC we need to look at Wartburg's OC and Mount Grad Luke Summers.  Assuming he isn't the next HC at ONU.

You sure about this? LK was 40-10 in first 5 seasons (80%). Lk was 61-14 in first 7 seasons (81.3%). From that point on he was 272-11 (96.11%).
No one said Dartt can't win OAC games. Great he has a .929 - if he was hired to kick the he!! out of Wilmington, Defiance, and Otterbein then Mission Accomplished. He was hired to add National Championships.

And for the record - LK inherited a good program from Wable. He turned it into a juggernaut. VK and GD inherited a Ferrari - titles were expected. VK got it done after early struggles but NEVER exited in the 2nd round. GD has taken a Ferrari and turned it into a Ford Taurus wagon. Safe, dependable - but it ain't winning any races (or titles).

Craziest LK stat IMO is that between 1993 to 2012 LK had as many championships as losses. He also coached for more seasons than he had total losses, 27 seasons 24 losses.
#15
Quote from: #1OacFan on December 10, 2023, 10:05:47 PM
LK's other daughter's name is Faith, which is what many of you need to have right now, Dartt winning % is .933!  For the record LK's winning % was .929 and was only .755 after his 1st 45 games. 

If we hire an OC we need to look at Wartburg's OC and Mount Grad Luke Summers.  Assuming he isn't the next HC at ONU.

If we're looking at winning percentage post-season is a lot more relevant IMO. I'm pretty sure I could have coached Mount to at least 8 or 9 OAC wins the last few seasons.

Dartt's post season winning percentage is only 72%...

VK was 83% in the post season and LK was 86%

That being said, I don't think anyone is really better suited for the job at this point, he just needs an OC!

After thinking about it, one of the Siriannis could arguably be a better fit