Big Dance

Started by Falconer, November 11, 2019, 02:34:57 PM

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YoungBuck

Quote from: blooter442 on November 11, 2019, 04:24:22 PM
Round of 32: Amherst, Ithaca, Mary Washington, Rowan, RPI, Middlebury, Messiah, Oneonta, JCU, Centre, CMS, UT-Dallas, F&M, Montclair, Kenyon, Rochester, Hopkins, Conn., CNU, Roanoke, Tufts, WPI, W&L, Oglethorpe, Chicago, Hope, Luther, Central, Calvin, St. Norbert, NPU, Colorado College

Sweet 16: Amherst, Mary Washington, Middlebury, Messiah, John Carroll, UT-Dallas, F&M, Kenyon, Hopkins, CNU, Tufts, W&L, Chicago, Central, Calvin, NPU

Elite 8: Amherst, Messiah, John Carroll, Kenyon, Hopkins, Tufts, Chicago, Calvin

Final 4: Amherst, Kenyon, Tufts, Chicago

Championship: Amherst 1-0 Tufts

Notes:

- As I said last year very much shooting from the hip (and, to the Tufts faithful, I would not be completely surprised to see the same Final matchup with the scoreline reversed). Tufts has not lost a Final 4 game (ever!) and a final between the two would be uncharted territory.
- Both of the NESCAC's top two will, in all likelihood, be hosting to the Final 4 — a contrast to when all the NESCACs have been in the same quartile of the bracket.
- I feel like this Amherst team is a lot like their 2015 team — including losing the NESCAC quarters at home. Tufts was deserved NESCAC winners and held the No. 1 spot for quite a while, but I do feel Amherst just has a bit more this year; last year, it was the reverse, as both the regular season and Sweet 16 games showed. They seem more ruthless, and I think much like 2015 their loss perhaps came at the right time.
- I've been impressed with Babson this year, and think they might have gotten a Pool C anyway, but do not think they overcome Oneonta. Then again, didn't see them beating Tufts, either.
- Middlebury isn't fun to watch IMHO but defense counts at this point in the year and they have a solid rearguard.
- Chicago: Five ties is a lot, and it took a while for the Maroons to get going, but going 7-0 in the UAA is no mean feat. I think they have usurped Calvin as the team to beat in that quartile (a reverse of when I said earlier in the year I'd be impressed if Chicago avoided a loss to Calvin). They were hard done by in 2017 in that year's semifinal, but got blown out of the water last year. Will this year be the year they win a semi? Tough to see them getting by Tufts.

Are we sure Tufts would host in a Sectional pod that included Hopkins?  I would think Hopkins is ranked higher than Tufts, but maybe that changed in the past week?  Anyone have any insight on this? 

blooter442

Quote from: YoungBuck on November 11, 2019, 06:16:49 PM
Are we sure Tufts would host in a Sectional pod that included Hopkins?  I would think Hopkins is ranked higher than Tufts, but maybe that changed in the past week?  Anyone have any insight on this?

It's close, for sure — JHU might actually have the edge in terms of proximity to South Atlantic participants — I just have the feeling that Tufts' last week of results may be decisive (save for the Blue Jays' superior winning pct., and acknowledging their Centennial Conference triumph). Maybe that's my New England bias. FWIW, D3soccer.com has Tufts ranked one spot higher, although that's not an indicator or selection criteria for hosting.

Jim Matson

Quote from: blooter442 on November 11, 2019, 07:06:15 PM
Quote from: YoungBuck on November 11, 2019, 06:16:49 PM
Are we sure Tufts would host in a Sectional pod that included Hopkins?  I would think Hopkins is ranked higher than Tufts, but maybe that changed in the past week?  Anyone have any insight on this?

It's close, for sure — JHU might actually have the edge in terms of proximity to South Atlantic participants — I just have the feeling that Tufts' last week of results may be decisive (save for the Blue Jays' superior winning pct., and acknowledging their Centennial Conference triumph). Maybe that's my New England bias. FWIW, D3soccer.com has Tufts ranked one spot higher, although that's not an indicator or selection criteria for hosting.

Correct! While highly accurate  ;D, our rankings don't have any impact on the NCAA committee and their decisions.
Managing Editor, D3soccer.com

Christan Shirk

I have gotten some insight into some of the surprising selections for pod hosts.

As has been mentioned/explained by others, the reason Amherst, Messiah, Chicago and Johns Hopkins are not hosting the pods in which they are the top seed is because their women's teams are also the top seed in their pods, and following the alternating hosting priority schedule, the women have hosting priority. No big news there.

In past years, as long as geography didn't point the committee in a different direction, the second seed in the pod would typically be chosen to host in these situations. This brought on consistent feedback that when the top two seeds advanced to the second round as expected, it was unfair that the top seed that had earned the right to host, not only didn't get to host, but now had to play at the home of a potentially very strong second round opponent. In other words, the strongest challenger to the top seed advancing to the Sweet 16 was being given the advantage it hadn't earned to use against the team that actually deserved it.

In response to this feedback, the committee this year selected the third seeds in these pod to host, thus making the likely second round match a neutral game.  That doesn't completely make up for the lost hosting advantage, but at least it doesn't hand that advantage to their more likely second round opponent.  This is why Keene State, Oneonta State, Hope and Catholic are hosting pods.


My initial thoughts/observations are as follows:
• In general and on first thought, this seems like a sensible thing to do.  It's nice to try not to penalize a team just because their women's team is also extremely good.
• The strongest challenger in a pod may not actually be who the NCAA's selection criteria says it is.  The third seed by their criteria might actual be the top seeds' biggest threat, so this approach might now always be the better for the top seed. For example, opinion may vary on whether third seed Oneonta State or second seed Babson is the better team and the team with the better chance to stop Messiah from advancing.
• In strong pods with three relatively strong teams, this doesn't make much or any difference for the top seed.  However, it now unfairly helps the third seed have a better chance against the second seed in round one.  Since this is about fairness, is it fair that Ohio Wesleyan has to play at host Hope to open the tournament?  Is it fair that Catholic's chances of advancing got such an unearned/undeserved boost?
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

PaulNewman

On closer look, the Chicago/Dominican/OWU/Hope foursome is intriguing.  Chicago and Hope played at Hope earlier this season, with Chicago squeaking by 3-2, and OWU also has a good history at the gorgeous Hope soccer complex. 

And of course OWU-Hope pits two D3 coaching legends facing off, Jay Martin and Dave Brandt.  The winner of OWU-Hope will feel confident assuming Chicago is there.

Mid-Atlantic Fan

MAF NCAA Picks

Round 32
Amherst
Keene
Mary Wash
Rowan
RPI
Midd
Messiah
Oneonta
JC
KZoo
Claremont
Trinity
F&M
Hobart
Behrend
UR
JHU
Conn
CNU
Swat
Tufts
WPI
W&L
Oglethorpe
Chicago
OWU
Luther
Central
Calvin
ONU
NP
GA

Sweet 16
Amherst
Rowan
Midd
Oneonta
Kzoo
Trinity
F&M
UR
JHU
CNU
Tufts
W&L
OWU
Luther
Calvin
GA

Elite 8
Amherst
Oneonta
Trinity
F&M
JHU
W&L
Luther
Calvin

Final 4
Amherst
F&M
W&L
Calvin

Final
Amherst
Calvin

Champion
Calvin (2-1)


Shooter McGavin

Shooter's Tourney Picks

Round of 32
Amherst
Ithaca
Keystone
Rowan
RPI
JWU
Messiah
Babson
JC
Centre
Tx Luthern
Trinity
PSU Harrisburg
Montclair
Kenyon
UR
JHU
Catholic
CNU
Roanoke
Tufts
Nazareth
Wash Lee
Gettysburg
Chicago
Hope
Luther
UW-Superior
Calvin
ONU
North Park
Gustavus

Sweet 16
Amherst
Rowan
RPI
Messiah
Centre
Trinity
Montclair
Kenyon
JHU
CNU
Tufts
Gettysburg
Chicago
Luther
ONU
North Park

Elite 8
Amherst
Messiah
Centre
Kenyon
JHU
Tufts
Chicago
North Park

Final 4
Amherst
Kenyon
Tufts
Chicago

Final
Kenyon
Tufts

Champ
Tufts 3-1

YoungBuck

Tried my hand at some Bracket Analysis using Massey.  Some great potential matchups to look forward to along the way to Greensboro.  Enjoy:

Best Teams Left Out:
26. Covenant
27. Williams
32. Eastern Conn
36. St. Thomas (MN)
37. St. Mary's (MD)

Top 5 In:
1. Hopkins
2. Tufts
3. Amherst
4. F&M
5. Calvin

Bottom 5 In:
344. John Jay
303. SUNY Maritime
275. W&J
255. Thomas (ME)
218. Principia

Best Quality First Round Matchups:
11. Catholic v. 12. Conn
8. W&L v. 22. NC Wesleyan
5. Calvin v. 64. UW Whitewater

Worst Quality First Round Matchups:
69. Texas Dallas v. 100. Trinity (TX)
71. Ithaca v. 83. Keene St
25. Luther v. 218 Principia

Sectional Rankings (Assuming highest rated teams advance):
Best - 1. Hopkins v. 9. CNU and 2. Tufts v. 8. W&L
3. Amherst v. 6. Mary Wash and 17. Middlebury v. 10. Messiah
7. Chicago v. 25. Luther and 5. Calvin v. 16. North Park
Worst - 15. JCU v. 30. CMS and 4. F&M v. 14. Kenyon

Path to Title for Top Seeds in each Quadrant (Assuming highest rated teams advance):
Easiest - Amherst - 255. Thomas (ME) 71. Ithaca 6. Mary Wash 10. Messiah 4. F&M 1. Hopkins
F&M - 202. PSU-H 18. Montclair 14. Kenyoon 15. JCU 3. Amherst 1. Hopkins
Calvin - 64. UW Whitewater 50. St Norbert 16. North Park 7. Chicago 1. Hopkins 3. Amherst
Hardest - Hopkins - 344. John Jay 11. Catholic 9. CNU 2. Tufts 5. Calvin 3. Amherst

YB's Potential Game(s) to Watch (And hope will happen) Each Round:
1st: 11. Catholic v. 12. Conn
2nd: 10. Messiah v. 13. Oneonta
Sweet 16: 3. Amherst v. 6. Mary Wash and 5. Calvin v. 16. North Park
Elite 8: 1. Hopkins v. 2. Tufts and 5. Calvin v. 7. Chicago and 3. Amherst v. 10. Messiah (ALL SOO GOOD)
Final 4: Take your pick
Championship: NESCAC (3. Amherst v. 2. Tufts) or Centennial (1. Hopkins v. 4. F&M)

Best of luck to all teams involved.  Should be a fun couple of weeks!

PaulNewman

Do any of the UAA teams play on grass?  I know Chicago has one but is that their usual field or do they play most UAA tilts on turf?  Emory?  Seems like I've watched Emory play at home and never have been sure what the surface is.  I know Brandeis, UR, CMU, Wash U, CWRU and I thin kNYU are all turf.

blooter442

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:31:11 PM
Do any of the UAA teams play on grass?  I know Chicago has one but is that their usual field or do they play most UAA tilts on turf?  Emory?  Seems like I've watched Emory play at home and never have been sure what the surface is.  I know Brandeis, UR, CMU, Wash U, CWRU and I thin kNYU are all turf.

Emory's field is grass. Never seen it in person, but doesn't look in the best of shape most times I see it on web casts.

They are the only one whose primary surface is grass; Chicago has one but I believe plays most games on turf (the only games I can recall seeing on the grass field was the 2014 regular season game vs. Brandeis and the 2016 Sweet 16 game vs. Redlands...there have been more, no doubt, but those are the only two I've seen).

PaulNewman

A little off topic, but what is the best, most unlikely based on location grass field in D3?  My gut vote is SLU....remarkable pitch given the location, and the crew there must spend hours and hours most of the year keeping the field looking that good.

Gregory Sager

Every Chicago men's soccer game I've ever seen has been played on the turf surface at Stagg Field.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

paclassic89

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:50:56 PM
A little off topic, but what is the best, most unlikely based on location grass field in D3?  My gut vote is SLU....remarkable pitch given the location, and the crew there must spend hours and hours most of the year keeping the field looking that good.

Not sure but I die a little inside whenever a school replaces a natural field with artificial turf.  I realize it's a ton more work but a properly kept natural field will always be superior

Mr.Right

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 12, 2019, 08:34:13 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:50:56 PM
A little off topic, but what is the best, most unlikely based on location grass field in D3?  My gut vote is SLU....remarkable pitch given the location, and the crew there must spend hours and hours most of the year keeping the field looking that good.

Not sure but I die a little inside whenever a school replaces a natural field with artificial turf.  I realize it's a ton more work but a properly kept natural field will always be superior


This is how i felt when the first Nescac went to turf in 2007. Middlebury started the trend and I hoping the final schools do not give up its grass

jknezek

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 12, 2019, 08:34:13 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:50:56 PM
A little off topic, but what is the best, most unlikely based on location grass field in D3?  My gut vote is SLU....remarkable pitch given the location, and the crew there must spend hours and hours most of the year keeping the field looking that good.

Not sure but I die a little inside whenever a school replaces a natural field with artificial turf.  I realize it's a ton more work but a properly kept natural field will always be superior

Agreed.