Eastern Collegiate Football Conference

[NED3Guy]

Better late than never-

Picks for the week:

Alfred State - 35
AMCAT U -27

I think Alfred State is the best ECFC team we've seen in a while, and I think today they show up a put the league on notice.

Dean - 28
Keystone -24

Dean will dominate the stats but also have too many turnovers to make this a blowout. But their WR is the best player in the league and he'll be the difference.

GALL U - 42
SUNY -24

I think GAL U is legit this year. I have no reason why I think that but I just do. I think they run all over SUNY today.

[NED3Guy]

I've been slacking in my efforts to keep the ECFC board near the top of the list this fall....

Been a pretty good couple of weeks.

The AMCATS went to Alfred State and took care of business to claim the top spot in the ECFC standings.

Then, Alfred State took care of business against Gallaudet the following week, to put themselves back in the top two.

Gallaudet has a chance to really throw a wrench into things if they win out, and hand the AMCAT's their only conference loss. That could leave the AMCATS, Alfred State, and Gallaudet all with only one loss in a three way triangle of A beat B, B beat C, and C beat A (assuming other games play out the way we think)....I have no idea what the tie breakers look like but it could be really interesting....time will tell.

With all that said, here's our ECFC Rankings for the week: (record and remaining opponents)
1) AMCATS (3-0, @CU, vs Gall, vs SUNY)
2) Alfred State (2-1, @Keystone, vs CU, vs Dean)
3) Gallaudet (3-1, OFF, @AMC, @CU)
4) SUNY (1-2, @Dean, vs Keystone, @AMC)
5) Castleton (2-1, vs AMC, @ASC, vs Gall)
6) Dean (1-3, vs SUNY, OFF, @ASC)
7) Keystone (0-4, vs ASC, @SUNY, OFF)

Buckle up ECFC fans, it could be a fun couple of weeks to end this season.

[NED3Guy]

Wow wow wow.

And just like that the ECFC gets flipped sideways.

Castleton has joined the party and is now in the FOUR WAY TIE at the top, with AMCATS, Alfred State and Gall U. Each team has 1 conference loss: CU to SUNY, AMCATS to CU, Alfred State to AMCATS and Gall U to Alfred State.

Seems like a mess, but there’s no needs to pull out the ECFC tie breakers quite yet as Gall plays AMCATS this weekend and Castelton plays Alfred State, so the number of one loss teams gets cut in half this weekend, leaving head to head as the tie breakers.

But what if Castleton and Gall U both win?? Luckily they play each other the following week.

Based on my quick math: Castelton is the only team who controls their destiny right now, with their loss being an outlier they would have head to head tie breaks. Otherwise all three other teams need to win, and get help.

If you’re an AMCAT fan; you need a CU loss.
GU fans need an Alfred State loss
Alfred State fans need an AMCATS loss.

Great couple of weeks left in the ECFC!

I know some d3 football fans have their thoughts about this league and where it ranks in the big picture; but one thing nobody can take dump on is how competitive the league has become within itself week to week.

[Go Blue!]

This league is definitely a Much Improved!!!

I am looking forward to seeing how this weekend plays out. Alfred State has played everyone extremely tough and were a few points away from being 6-2 or 7-1. They took Utica down to the wire, they should not have lost to Rochester by 1 and also had Univ of New England beat and could not hold on.  They also left 2 touchdowns inside the 10 against the AMCATs. Hopefully they continue to grow and change the character..

Ball Control !!!!!

[NED3Guy]

BIG WEEKEND IN THE ECFC-

FOUR WAY TIE AT THE TOP with all four teams playing each other this weekend! In the world of small college football it doesn't get better than this.

GU at AMCATs - Both teams need the win to keep their championship hopes alive. Both teams are coming off conference losses (GU two weeks ago vs Alfred State and AMC last week vs Castleton) - While I wasn't able to watch the AMCATs v Castleton last week, I was told that their poor tackling was the difference in the game. That's not a good thing when you have a team that rushes for 351 a game against conference opponents coming to town in November....with that in mind I'm going with GU 35 - AMCATS 27

Castleton at Alfred State - Earlier in the week I had no clue what to think about this one. Both teams appear to be playing their best football at the right time. Alfred QB is rushing for almost 140 per game in conference play, but the Spartan D is holding entire teams to under 50 yards rushing per game in ECFC play.....on top of that the Spartans are taking the ball away from opponents when they take to the air.....I've picked against the Spartans a few times this year and I've looked foolish each time. While I don't want to jinx them, I have to come to my senses and realize that the Spartan D is a different animal than the rest of the D's in the ECFC. It's actually crazy when you look at their stats and see what they've done in their 4 conference games (15.8 points per game, 46.8 yards allowed rushing per game, 10 INT and 13 Sacks). They say defense wins championships, and that defense travels well, so I'm thinking the Spartan D travels out to Western NY this weekend and brings them one step closer to a championship: Spartans 24 - Alfred State 17

Sets up a championship game scenario next weekend when GU visits Castleton.

Oh yeah, Maritime plays Keystone this weekend too...SUNY 38 - Keystone 21 (I officially retract my "Keystone will win a game" statement)

[NED3Guy]

Huge win for Alfred State over Castleton last weekend. Big ECFC championship implications from that game. Between the Alfred State win over CU and the AMCATs win over GU; the Championship / AQ picture is a lot more clear now than it was a week ago.

I'm officially done trying to guess outcomes this year....I'm well below .500 with my picks. Shows how little I know about these teams this year, and how competitive the league has become week to week.

With that said, I'm done predicting outcomes, and will spend some time on this post going through 4 ECFC Championship scenarios. While my game picks have been way off, I feel really good about this breakdown as I talked to some people who spent good time looking at the tie breakers.

From all we've been able to gather (ECFC rules and talking to a few SID's) here's how things look-

AMCATS win vs SUNY and they are the 2021 ECFC Champs at 5-1 with H2H tie breaker over Alfred State if needed.

An AMCAT loss to SUNY opens the door for a few scenarios to play out:

AMCAT loss with Alfred State win = Alfred State is ECFC Champs at 5-1 (all others with at least 2 losses)

I think that's really the two most likely, most direct scenarios. But.....

Just for fun lets play this out differently than either of those situations:

An AMCAT loss (SUNY win), coupled with an Alfred State loss against Dean would lead to a 4 way tie with multiple 2 loss teams (including the winner of the CU v GU game*)

AMCATS 4-2 (losses to CU and SUNY - in this hypothetical)
Alfred State 4-2 (losses to AMC and Dean - in this hypothetical)
SUNY 4-2 (losses to Alfred State and GU - in this hypothetical)
       CU 4-2 (losses to AMCATS and SUNY)
      OR
       GU 4-2 (losses to Alfred State and AMCATS)

One of the first tie breakers that will be used in this scenario will be "record vs tied teams" - Here's where things get interesting.

*The CU v GU game becomes a big factor in this because SUNY and AMCATS both have split their games against Castleton and GU.

SUNY lost to GU, but beat CU.
AMCATS lost to CU but beat GU

Record vs Tied Teams if CU wins:

Alfred State - 2-1
SUNY- 2-1
AMC- 1-2
CU- 1-2

AMC and CU eliminated from the tie. H2H back on the table....Alfred State is ECFC Champion due to H2H over SUNY

Record vs Tied Teams if GU wins:
AMCATS- 2-1
Alfred State - 2-1
GU - 1-2
SUNY - 1-2

GU and SUNY eliminated, H2H back on the table....AMCATS are ECFC Champions due to H2H over Alfred State

So here it is:

AMCATS are 2021 ECFC Champs - If they win
AMCATS are 2021 ECFC Champs - If they lose, Alfred State loses and GU beats CU

Alfred State is 2021 ECFC Champs - If they win and AMCATs lose
Alfred State is 2021 ECFC Champs- If they lose, and AMCATS lose and CU beats GU

SUNY, GU, CU, Dean and Keystone are all eliminated from Championship consideration.
 
(I'm 90% sure I did this all correctly, but I've been wrong all year so who knows???)

Should be a fun weekend to close out a great ECFC season.

Very curious to see how this plays out, and if any ECFC teams put in for New England Bowl games.