My Attempt at Fixing D3 Football Selection Process

Started by '95 Blugold, November 23, 2021, 01:24:23 PM

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'95 Blugold

**DISCLAIMER** I will state upfront these views are coming from a mostly casual fan of a lower tier WIAC school. In no way do I claim, to be any type of bracketologist, but do enjoy the forum along with D3football.com and try and learn as much as I can. One theme I do notice this time of year is the faults of the D3 selection process, so this is my attempt to throw an idea out there to hopefully get some more deserving Pool C bids into the field and see what kind of discussion it leads to.

D3 football post season consists of a 32 team bracket selected from 3 Pool criteria. If I have it correct there are currently 27 Pool A bids (conference winners), 0 Pool B bids , and 5 Pool C bids (at-large).

Starting off is the big change that will have a ripple effect down stream and we'll see where that takes us. That is, in order to get an AQ as a conference winner the conference must have a minimum of 8 teams. I don't know if football has a minimum number of teams a conference is required to have to get an AQ, but looking though the conference standings over on D3football.com it looks like all are 6 or above. I know the WIAC when the switched to there own hockey conference a few year back, they were not getting a AQ for the conference champ due to only 5 members.

With that said, we have a new Pool selection:

Pool A: 17 Bids - with the bar set at 8 teams, my math from the bracket this year eliminates 10 teams from the bracket for not having enough teams in their conference.

Pool B: 5 Bids - use the current criteria + teams that won their conference, but didn't qualify for Pool A bids. So for example, since there were no Pool B bids, the top 5 conference winners left out of Pool A would fill Pool B bids and the remaining 5 would go into Pool C

Pool C: 10 Bids - All remaining teams go into Pool C with the current selection process used.

So how would this break down this season? To the best of my ability I'd have it go:

Pool A Bids (10): in no particular order.

St. John's
Lake Forest
Linfield
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Trinity, (TX)
Huntingdon
UW Whitewater
DePauw
Rose-Hulman
Central
Aurora
North Central
Carnegie Mellon
Mount Union
Johns Hopkins
Delaware Valley
Framingham State

Pool B Bids (5)

Redlands
Cortland
Springfield
RPI
Endicott

This leaves the current selections from 2021 into Pool C.

Greenville
Albion
Washington & Lee
Salisbury
Anna Marie

As I stated, I'm not a bracketologist, so my application of how the Pool C selection is probably flawed, but trying to apply the process Greg Thomas and Pat Coleman used in their projected playoff bracket I come away with the following 10 at large bids. Not going to go in pick break down, but can address questions if have them in further discussion.

Pool C Bids (10)

UW LaCrosse
Albion
Birmingham-Southern
Hardin-Simmons
Muhlenberg
Salisbury
Ithaca
Bethel
Wheaton (Ill.)
Union

Differences:

Greenville, Washington & Legg, Anna Marie are all conference champs left out with the new criteria. Not enough teams in their conference and neither of them are regionally ranked so no consideration for Pool C.

Ithica, Union & Hardin-Simmons all make the field.

Won't go into making the bracket, but as far as teams in the tournament, this is what I ended up with. Hopefully it isn't too confusing and I'm sure I have errors in my thought process along the way, but though I'd throw out an idea.
Thoughts?




Ralph Turner

#1
Quote from: '95 Blugold on November 23, 2021, 01:24:23 PM
**DISCLAIMER** I will state upfront these views are coming from a mostly casual fan of a lower tier WIAC school. In no way do I claim, to be any type of bracketologist, but do enjoy the forum along with D3football.com and try and learn as much as I can. One theme I do notice this time of year is the faults of the D3 selection process, so this is my attempt to throw an idea out there to hopefully get some more deserving Pool C bids into the field and see what kind of discussion it leads to.

D3 football post season consists of a 32 team bracket selected from 3 Pool criteria. If I have it correct there are currently 27 Pool A bids (conference winners), 0 Pool B bids , and 5 Pool C bids (at-large).

Starting off is the big change that will have a ripple effect down stream and we'll see where that takes us. That is, in order to get an AQ as a conference winner the conference must have a minimum of 8 teams. I don't know if football has a minimum number of teams a conference is required to have to get an AQ, but looking though the conference standings over on D3football.com it looks like all are 6 or above. I know the WIAC when the switched to there own hockey conference a few year back, they were not getting a AQ for the conference champ due to only 5 members.
...
Thoughts?
The minimum in all D3 sports for the AQ is 7 teams.

Before 1999, there was no AQ. Undefeated 10-0 Emory & Henry who did not make the playoffs from the South Region as a 5th undefeated team in the Region in 1998. The effect of the AQ has been to proliferate all sports, including football, at the D3 level. I think that I remember about 215 D3 teams playing football about 20 years ago. (Pat has an old column about the schools that have added football while this website has been going. Next year will be the 25th season!)

What may have hurt most was the New England Football Conference with 14 teams for one Pool A bid disbanding after 2012 into the MASCAC and the CCC which now get bids since 2015. Also, several Pool B conferences over the last decades have moved from Pool B to Pool A, e.g., the NWC, the SCIAC. IMHO, there is a big difference in 5 bids and 6 bids. The field starts to thin out more after 6.

We now have several conferences working hard to stay at 7 teams, the UMAC, the SCAIC, the ODAC. Even the ASC needs associates to name a few.

BSCpanthers

There are 250 D3 football programs out there, 32 make the playoffs.  That's compared to 169 D2 programs where 28 make the playoffs.  I'm not sure how to make the selection process better, BSC got in as an at large, but Hardin-Simmons was left out.  Without adding another round, even a partial extra round with byes, not sure how you fix that.  With so little out of conference play it's really hard to get a real picture of who's better.  I think adding an extra round to the playoffs, even if only 8 more teams, with bottom 16 playing first round, top 24 get a bye first week would help a lot.  But that also pushes the championship game into Christmas/New Years week.

HSCTiger74

  With so many teams and conferences in D3 maybe we should go in the other direction. Do away with the automatic bids, reduce the field to the 8 or 12 teams with a reasonable chance to win the Stagg (we all know who they are anyway) and let everyone else participate in some sort of bowl game along the lines of the ECAC model, if they are so inclined. I'm not sure if the economics could be worked out, but reducing the number of playoff games from 31 to 11 or 7 leaves room for several "bowls", and these could be regionalized to cut costs somewhat. Of course you'd still have the problem of determining eligibility and who might get left out, but maybe it's something to think about.
TANSTAAFL

Inkblot

The minimum number of teams for a Pool A should be increased to 8 (if every conference had 7 teams, there would be more than 32 conferences). This would probably add in another Pool C bid by forcing the New York and New England conferences to consolidate.
Moderator of /r/CFB. https://inkblotsports.com. Twitter: @InkblotSports.

BSCpanthers

Did anyone this season get an auto bid with less then 8 wins??? 

wally_wabash

Quote from: BSCpanthers on December 05, 2021, 10:43:29 PM
Did anyone this season get an auto bid with less then 8 wins???

NEWMAC champion Springfield was the lone 7-3 team in the field this year.  Everybody else won 8+ games in the regular season.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Baldini

Quote from: wally_wabash on December 06, 2021, 01:37:48 AM
Quote from: BSCpanthers on December 05, 2021, 10:43:29 PM
Did anyone this season get an auto bid with less then 8 wins???

NEWMAC champion Springfield was the lone 7-3 team in the field this year.  Everybody else won 8+ games in the regular season.

This is a quiz to see who is paying attention, Anna Maria?

The Mole

7-2 :) Springfield was the lone 7-3.....

Year in and out how many teams really have a shot at winning it all? The 4 prohibitive favorites are in the semis this season. I have always been a fan of the ECAC, MAC/Centennial, NY State, New England and now Isthmus Bowls. Not picking on them but since you brought them up--would Anna Maria rather be a huge underdog in the NCAA (62-10 loss to Del Val) or play one more game vs a team like Salve Regina that has regional and possibly recruiting appeal and a much better chance to end the season on a high note?

Same for Framingham--45-0 blowout vs Muhlenberg on a long road trip or play a team like Husson?
TAKE THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED

Inkblot

Those conferences aren't forced to participate in the playoffs.
Moderator of /r/CFB. https://inkblotsports.com. Twitter: @InkblotSports.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Baldini on December 06, 2021, 09:48:47 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 06, 2021, 01:37:48 AM
Quote from: BSCpanthers on December 05, 2021, 10:43:29 PM
Did anyone this season get an auto bid with less then 8 wins???

NEWMAC champion Springfield was the lone 7-3 team in the field this year.  Everybody else won 8+ games in the regular season.

This is a quiz to see who is paying attention, Anna Maria?

Totally blew it.  Equated 2 losses with 8 wins without checking.  Great catch, Baldini.   :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HSCTiger74

   Thanks to The Mole and +k for stating my case much better than I did.
TANSTAAFL

smedindy

I hate the bowl system to begin with, and wish D1A would go to a 16 team playoff. I say no to shrinking auto bids.

Win your league.

Baldini

I personally don't think it needs fixing, it has total inclusion of all schools now. The system isn't about having the 32 best teams, it's the 27 conference winners and the 5 best teams that didn't. For the teams that feel they should of gotten a Pool C bid but didn't, maybe they should look at what they could of done different, rather than looking to take inclusion away from a conference winner.   

emma17

Quote from: Baldini on December 07, 2021, 06:27:47 PM
I personally don't think it needs fixing, it has total inclusion of all schools now. The system isn't about having the 32 best teams, it's the 27 conference winners and the 5 best teams that didn't. For the teams that feel they should of gotten a Pool C bid but didn't, maybe they should look at what they could of done different, rather than looking to take inclusion away from a conference winner.

Look, I totally understand some/many people are in favor of keeping the AQ as is. I don't have a strong opinion on it as I see both sides. But this answer is just silly. What did 7-3 Springfield do better than 9-1 HSU?