2017 Playoffs

Started by Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat, October 31, 2017, 01:17:58 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

jamtod

You've got just the 2 flights projected in round 1?
I had to look and see the distance between IWU and UST, as I wasn't sure if the CCIW schools fit under the 500 mile criteria for us.

The seedings are a bit stretched just to make them fit with some geographical concerns, right? Does the model take into account home field advantage at all?
The path for St Thomas would be: host Illinois Wesleyan, go to Wartburg (~89% chance of winning on the road seems high, especially since Wartburg has the home-algorithm advantage), go to Oshkosh (our odds against them, at their place seem really high too, but I know your model likes the Tommies).

HansenRatings

There's two flights the first round, and I believe a maximum of one flight the second round. Yes, home field advantage is taken into account.

As far as seedlings, I built a model that takes as much info as I can for a team, weights each of the criteria to minimize error from past regional rankings, and grades each team according to those weights, and then ranks teams according to that. Using that methodology, none of the seeds in the projected bracket are off by more than 1. This model did pretty well projecting the regional rankings last week. On every region, the top 5 were all the same, and none of the teams who made their regional top 10 were worse than #12 by my numbers. In reality though, we know that a team like Hardin-Simmons is better than a 5 seed, so take it with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

HansenRatings

Just realized, it wouldn't be a "maximum" of one flight the second round. That's the number of flights if all home teams win.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

d-train

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 07, 2017, 05:15:30 PM
Here's my first ever attempt at projecting a bracket. Let me know where I F'ed up.
Well - for starters - you put seeds on the darn thing.  ;)

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 07, 2017, 06:07:23 PM
Just realized, it wouldn't be a "maximum" of one flight the second round. That's the number of flights if all home teams win.

Keep something in mind... the NCAA, especially the liaison, will look down the road on the bracket and to some degree take into account some upsets to make sure flights are reduced. They understand that not all upsets should be considered, but they will question a lot of them.

What I am getting at is, don't base your flight predictions on just home teams per se. I have seen many a nice bracket have to be changed by a committee because of the real chance possibility of another team winning (the real underdogs are what they are and simply unavoidable).

Of course with all that said, the NCAA has shown signs in the last year-plus to be a bit more lenient and allowing an extra flight or two. There has been more room in the budget and they have allowed a bit more "flexibility" in the brackets.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

HansenRatings

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 07, 2017, 09:17:07 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 07, 2017, 06:07:23 PM
Just realized, it wouldn't be a "maximum" of one flight the second round. That's the number of flights if all home teams win.

Keep something in mind... the NCAA, especially the liaison, will look down the road on the bracket and to some degree take into account some upsets to make sure flights are reduced. They understand that not all upsets should be considered, but they will question a lot of them.

What I am getting at is, don't base your flight predictions on just home teams per se. I have seen many a nice bracket have to be changed by a committee because of the real chance possibility of another team winning (the real underdogs are what they are and simply unavoidable).

Of course with all that said, the NCAA has shown signs in the last year-plus to be a bit more lenient and allowing an extra flight or two. There has been more room in the budget and they have allowed a bit more "flexibility" in the brackets.

I feel like I did a decent job of weighing the probabilities of upsets in my mock bracket. Using my win probabilities, the average number of flights in round 2 would be 1.5. The Mount Union "Pod" is probably my least eloquently constructed, as the only non-flight game would be if Trine went to UMU.

Possible flight games:
Linfield @ UMHB - 54% likelihood
Monmouth @ Mount Union - 36%
Huntingdon @ Wittenberg - 34%
Husson @ Brockport - 15%
Franklin @ Huntingdon - 9%
Chapman @ Linfield - 1%
Chapman @ HSU - 1%
W&L @ Trine - <1%
W&L @ Monmouth - <1%
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

emma17

Hansen, some of the first round matchups you projected would be great to watch:
NCC v St. John's
St. T v IWU
Trine vs. Monmouth (I especially like this one as it seems these programs typically face a top 10 in the first round)
Witt v Franklin
Wesley v JHU
Case v Frostburg
Linfield v HSU

USee

Quote from: emma17 on November 08, 2017, 12:06:53 PM
Hansen, some of the first round matchups you projected would be great to watch:
NCC v St. John's
St. T v IWU
Trine vs. Monmouth (I especially like this one as it seems these programs typically face a top 10 in the first round)
Witt v Franklin
Wesley v JHU
Case v Frostburg
Linfield v HSU

Those would be some insanely good first round matchups.

HScoach

^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

USee

Well it's roughly half the field and those teams have to play somebody....here's hoping.

wally_wabash

Wittenberg vs. Franklin is juicy.  I would love to see Chase Burton against the Wittenberg defense.  Also, it's a game that is seed-appropriate and, as an added bonus, you could pair that game up with Berry/Huntingdon as Berry can bus to either.  Huntingdon would have to fly no matter what in the 2nd round, but this pod at least gives the championship organizers the chance to avoid paying for a flight if Berry advances. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HansenRatings

I'm particularly fond of my Wartburg/Eureka projection. I'm a little sick of my Knights getting bracketed with the MIAC, CCIW, or WIAC whenever they make the tournament, even when they're undefeated. 
Wartburg's first-round opponents in recent tournaments:
2014 - 10-0 Wartburg vs. MIAC Runner-Up St. Thomas (we won)
2013 - 8-2 Wartburg @ CCIW Runner-Up IWU (we kicked their @$$)
2010 - 10-0 Wartburg vs. MIAC Runner-Up Bethel (we lost by 8)
2008 - 8-2 Wartburg @ WIAC Champion UWSP (we won)
2004 - 8-2 Wartburg @ MIAC Champion Concordia (we lost)
2003 - 10-0 Wartburg vs. MIAC Runner-Up Bethel (we won)
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

MonroviaCat

Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
Go Cats!

Ralph Turner

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville, if HSU is a Pool C bid.

jamtod

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:11:56 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville.

With question of whether Linfield will have a week 1 home game, and the assumption that they will be in a POD with the Texas island, is it safe to say that there will not be a home game in McMinnville week 2, barring a major UMHB upset?