BB: General New England Discussion

Started by Paul Heering, February 14, 2007, 06:14:24 PM

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Old Man

Hello????

5. Suffolk - The big wild card in New England, imo. Suffolk really hurt their chances last week by failing to win the GNAC after running the table in the regular season, but they still have an excellent record (27-10), and are 3rd in strength of schedule in New England, only trailing Trinity and Eastern Connecticut. The Rams have 5 games remaining, and should at least go 3-2 in those games, thus guaranteeing themselves 30 wins. At worst, I see them finishing at 30-12, and I think this should be enough to get them an at-large bid, so long as the teams above them win their conferences.
??? ??? ???

Why is suufolk #3?  - according to my stats they are 22-9 in region. whaere do you find thier=srenght of schedule?    trinty -23-0, wheaton - 28-5 after ducking KSC (field unplayable)????, KSC - 23-6, ECSU - 20-8-1,
Tell me why??????????????????



TheGNAC

Quote from: Old Man on May 05, 2008, 11:04:57 PM
Hello????

5. Suffolk - The big wild card in New England, imo. Suffolk really hurt their chances last week by failing to win the GNAC after running the table in the regular season, but they still have an excellent record (27-10), and are 3rd in strength of schedule in New England, only trailing Trinity and Eastern Connecticut. The Rams have 5 games remaining, and should at least go 3-2 in those games, thus guaranteeing themselves 30 wins. At worst, I see them finishing at 30-12, and I think this should be enough to get them an at-large bid, so long as the teams above them win their conferences.
??? ??? ???

Why is suufolk #3?  - according to my stats they are 22-9 in region. whaere do you find thier=srenght of schedule?    trinty -23-0, wheaton - 28-5 after ducking KSC (field unplayable)????, KSC - 23-6, ECSU - 20-8-1,
Tell me why??????????????????




I'm going on what I was told happened during the conference call last week. Suffolk's opponent's winning percentage is 3rd in New England, I presented that information wrong. Regardless, Suffolk has played the 3rd hardest schedule in NE, according to the committee.

TheGNAC

Quote from: Paul Heering on May 05, 2008, 04:29:09 PM
Here is how I see things right now.  This year there are 8 team regionals and 6 team regionals (no 7's--I think).  I put 1-9 here even though there can only be 8 teams.  Somebody is going to get shipped out and everyone else moves accordingly

1.  Trinity (win or lose in the NESCAC)
2.  Keene State (here if they win LEC tourney--in field but lower if they do not)
3.  Wheaton
4.  Western New England
5.  Eastern Connecticut / Southern Maine (whoever goes farther in LEC)
6.  ***See Below***
7.  St. Joe's Maine
8.  Worcester State
9.  NAC winner

6th Seed
Scenario #1--Williams makes it to the NESCAC finals, Williams gets the 6 seed
Scenario #2--Amherst makes it to the NESCAC finals, Amherst gets the 6 seed
Scenario #3--Tufts makes it to the NESCAC finals, Suffolk gets the 6 seed--this all depends on how Suffolk plays this week as they have games against MIT, Umass Boston, Endicott, & St. Joe's Maine (DH)

Looks like a VERY STRONG field.  This year may be the year that the team sent to the NY region isn't that upset about being shipped out.

Paul, I'm going to disagree with your 6th seed scenarios. The only chance Williams has at making the regionals is if they win the NESCAC - the committee said as much last week by failing to rank them in New England. Same with Amherst - ranked behind Suffolk, as long as Suffolk has a strong week, I don't see them getting the at-large, especially when comparing the in-region wins.

Suffolk is 25-9 in region (Montclair State and TCNJ both count in-region). Amherst I believe only has 15 in-region wins. Even if they win 2 games in the NESCAC tournament, that will only give them 17, with the chance of having 10 or 11 less in-region wins than Suffolk.

I just don't see either of those teams earning an at-large over Suffolk at this point.

Rick Vaughn

Just to chip in a few things.  The last two years the NESCAC has been a two-bid conference, so that bodes well for Williams or Amherst if they make the NESCAC championship game. 

I could see a circumstance where two squads from the LEC receive at-larges.  I have never seen Suffolk play, but based on quality of opponents, I would say that KSC, USM, and ECSU all deserve at large bids over Suffolk. 

Ralph Turner

Quote from: ECSUalum on May 05, 2008, 10:07:17 PM
Just wanted to share some NCAA D-III statistics as of 2007 here on most successful baseball programs in post season play (alphabetical order):

CWS Points:   4 for 1st place, 3 for 2nd , 2 for thirdplace , 1 for 4th place

                       Years          Tourney        Years       CWS
Team            in Regional     W      L         in CWS   Points  comments
-------           ---------------    ---     ---        ---------   --------  ------------

Cal St Stan,       10              49    21          10          19       now D- II
ECSU                 28             101   54          12          28       LEC
Ithaca                30              89    61          NA         21       Empire 8
Marietta             28             123   58          19         37        OAC
Montclair St        23              97    46          13         23        NJAC
NC Wesleyan     20              73    43          12         14        USA South
Rowan               17              50    32            6         10        NJAC
SUNY Cort.         16              50    32            8           7        SUNYAC
Wooster             21              45    45           4           5        NCAC
U St Thomas       12              35    23           3         10        MIAC
US Maine            16              48    32           6           8        LEC
UW Oshk            22            101    47           17        24       WIAC
W. Patterson      17              56    33           NA        11

Points are indication of toughness/sucess at CWS  Separates the men from the boys
WHERE ARE ALL THE CALIFORNIA/TEXAS TEAMS!!!!!                                 
The ASC has only been a Pool A conference since 2001. In the last seven years, the West Region (where the ASC competes) has won two National titles.  The ASC has had four teams make the NCAA's in that time.  SCAC members Trinity and Southwestern have also made the NCAA's in that time in the West Regionals..

The problem with the ASC at the national level is that we do not have the pitching depth that the WIAC, or the LEC or the NJAC have.  NJAC schools have come to Texas on spring trips.  We saw players from NJ that would be on scholarship in Texas.  Most likely, they would be among the 26 JUCO schools or the 20 D-II's or 10 NAIA schools, if not 15 some-odd D-1's.  :)

There is one unique difference about D-III baseball, i.e., the quality of the pitching staffs that are concentrated in the state schools.  You will notice that I mentioned three of the proposed power conferences.  Add in strong schools such as Salisbury and Cortland, and you have described many of the power teams in D3.   We do not see that state schools dominance in D-III football or basketball.

TheGNAC

Quote from: Rick Vaughn on May 06, 2008, 12:19:03 AM
Just to chip in a few things.  The last two years the NESCAC has been a two-bid conference, so that bodes well for Williams or Amherst if they make the NESCAC championship game. 

I could see a circumstance where two squads from the LEC receive at-larges.  I have never seen Suffolk play, but based on quality of opponents, I would say that KSC, USM, and ECSU all deserve at large bids over Suffolk. 

I can understand the KSC/ECSU argument for an at-large before Suffolk (I've mentioned as much in my previous posts), but I don't see USM getting in without winning the LEC. USM was swept by Suffolk already this year, and were ranked 9th last week in the regional rankings (the rankings which actually matter), whereas Suffolk was 5th. Suffolk has followed that ranking with a 3-0 week, and could conceivably end their week 7-0, to finish at 32-10. In order for Suffolk to drop in the rankings, they'd have to lose 2-3 games, and as of right now that hasn't happened.

Like I've mentioned before, Suffolk has the 3rd highest opponent's winning percentage in New England, behind only Trinity and Eastern Connecticut. As of right now, I think they're the front-runner for the 2nd at-large bid.

Nuke LaLoosh

The NESCAC has actually gotten a Pool C three years in a row. Trinity last year (not sure it was deserved) Bowdoin in '06, and Trinity again in '05 (a team that went to Wisconsin).

I think if either Williams or Amherst can beat Trinity this weekend, they should get in. If they both beat Trinity (not going to happen) then whoever wins the league, assuming it's not Tufts, will get the Pool A and Trinity will obviously get the Pool C.

I don't see Amherst beating Kiely, even though TK struggled some against them a few weeks ago, but I do think Williams has a shot if they can get by Tufts on Friday.

Paul Heering

My theory on Williams or Amherst getting that bid over Suffolk was based on what I think will happen not on what I think should happen.

From my limited time following all of this I have noticed that the NCAA does what they does.

2005--Two at large teams--1 NESCAC & 1 LEC
2006--Two at large teams--1 NESCAC & 1 LEC
2007--Two at large teams--1 NESCAC & 1 LEC

my bad grammar above was intended.

TheGNAC

Quote from: Paul Heering on May 06, 2008, 04:42:29 PM
My theory on Williams or Amherst getting that bid over Suffolk was based on what I think will happen not on what I think should happen.

From my limited time following all of this I have noticed that the NCAA does what they does.

2005--Two at large teams--1 NESCAC & 1 LEC
2006--Two at large teams--1 NESCAC & 1 LEC
2007--Two at large teams--1 NESCAC & 1 LEC

my bad grammar above was intended.


Those are excellent points. That being said, I think this is the first year since 2005 that Suffolk has a team that can actually earn an at-large bid... in both 2006 and 2007, the at-large bids were given to the favorites. IIRC, the only team who even had an argument in either of those years was Babson last season. This year, the committee put Suffolk before Williams and Amherst in last week's rankings, and if Suffolk can win 2 of their 3 remaining games (which I think is likely) to finish 30-11, I don't think they'll drop behind Amherst or Williams in the at-large chase.

Of course, this could all change if either of those teams can knock off Trinity. If that happens, all bets are off.

ecfaninri

The GNAC
Are you kidding me? Suffolk... I'm sure the committee will look long and hard at an Endicott victory. They better win twice against St. Joes. Come on...

C2islegit

There is no way Amherst or Williams deserves an at-large. After an LEC team takes one of the Pool C bids, the next would be either Suffolk, and if not them, most likely Roger Williams. If neither of those two, I would take Babson over any other NESCAC team. Even after losing 5 of their last 6, Babson still has 25 in region wins and beat both Suffolk and Amherst. If Roger Williams got snubbed, you can still make a case for Babson over the NESCAC 2nd place team.

TheGNAC

Quote from: ecfaninri on May 06, 2008, 06:13:36 PM
The GNAC
Are you kidding me? Suffolk... I'm sure the committee will look long and hard at an Endicott victory. They better win twice against St. Joes. Come on...

Do you even know how the committee works? Take a look at last week's rankings. Where's Suffolk ranked? 5th. Who's ahead of them? Trinity, Wheaton, and the two LEC teams. Assuming Trinity wins the NESCAC (not a stretch), and one of Keene/ECSU wins the LEC (again, not a stretch), that leaves Suffolk and the other LEC team one and two in the at-large rankings.

Suffolk followed last week's ranking with a 3-0 week thus far, and like I said earlier, have a realistic shot at going 5-1 or 6-0. St. Joe's will be resting their arms, whereas Suffolk is going to throw their #1 and #2 arms.

ecfaninri

GNAC......
What I meant was that Suffolk shouldn't be counting on the Endicott game for consideration for an at-large bid.

TheGNAC

Quote from: ecfaninri on May 06, 2008, 09:20:37 PM
GNAC......
What I meant was that Suffolk shouldn't be counting on the Endicott game for consideration for an at-large bid.

I agree, but at the same time beating Endicott and splitting with St. Joe's should still get them in. That would give them a 5-1 week, and push their in-region record to 27-10 (.729). Last year, Keene State (a Pool C qualifier) went 25-11 in-region, for a winning percentage of .694. As long as they don't drop both games to St. Joe's, I still think Suffolk and the other LEC team should get the bids.

TheGNAC

Just realized I made a mistake in my last post, as I misread Keene's in-region record. They were actually 21-9, good for a .700 winning percentage. Doesn't change my point, but for posterity's sake, I'd like to be as accurate as possible.