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Messages - John McGraw

#1
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 17, 2018, 02:02:20 PM
Quote from: airball55 on May 17, 2018, 01:23:24 PM
well said, after looking at the regionals...Cortland was obviously the number 1 overall in the country.  The NY regional is...suspect.  The pitching in the first game today was not good.  I am now taking Cortland in this region.  The competition is not good in comparison.  At least Cortland can pitch.  They may not need to hit. FYI, Oswego can hit the baseball.  That's what they do.  They don't catch it too well lol, but Oswego can hit, one of the better hitting teams in this region on par or close to Fisher and Union.

Swarthmore threw its number three guy. They'll have one of their top two arms now available for the winners' bracket game tomorrow. Their gamble paid off. B-W not a great pitching team to begin with but had been scoring runs in bunches. Their offense cooled down today.

This was one game in the 4-5 matchup played at 10:00 AM. And sometimes good pitchers have bad days.
#2
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 14, 2018, 01:29:30 PM
Quote from: airball55 on May 14, 2018, 01:08:53 PM
John, I am not comparing Fisher and Cortland.  I am surprised at the one seed for Cortland for sure.  As for record in last 10, when did this become a criteria?  Most teams are playing conference opponents in those games and can't control those records.  This makes no sense to me.  And, if that was a criteria, then teams that have openings, like Fisher should NEVER play Keystone for instance.  Also, Fisher went 3-3 against Ithaca :).  I just don't see Cortland as a one with that SOS, only 12 region ranked teams, and, if we considering the end of season, an absolute butt whoopin by Oswego.  Thanks guys!!

You're right, Fisher was 3-3 against Ithaca.

PRIMARY CRITERIA
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition.
● Results versus common Division III opponents.
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule.
Win-loss percentage — last 25% of the season (if applicable) - Not a huge deal but certainly playing well at the end of the season is a benefit.

Actual game score does not come into play. The folks on the committee are human but margin of victory is not a criteria. Also, Cortland was first in the last published NY region ranking. It is natural that they would be a 1 or 2 seed in Auburn based on this. Looking at the other top four seeded teams in Auburn, only Cortland was a number one regionally ranked team. Salisbury and USM were both ranked second in their respective regions and Baldwin Wallace was 8th in the Mideast. As such, Cortland gets the 1 seed. The field among the top four is stacked and I very easily can see any one of those teams advancing to the World Series.
#3
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 14, 2018, 12:49:56 PM
Quote from: airball55 on May 14, 2018, 11:07:06 AM
Wow, the field and the committee certainly fooled me lol.
1. When was the last time two teams had a top 25 schedule and 29 wins and did not get in?  If I am Case Western And Fisher, I have to wonder this aloud
2. Cortland...a 1? Thank god they played Oswego 5 times in the last couple of weeks or the SOS really would have been a joke. With an SOS in the 150's this was shocking.  Honestly, per previous seasons and a great D3 podcast...I honestly thought they were a bubble team.  If I am a team like Fisher, maybe I don't schedule Keystone, Kean, etc...load up on Wells, Alfred St., Caz, etc... Also, Oswego gets shipped as does the other top NY teams.  so much for proximity concerns.  This was a bigger surprise to me than the two teams above not getting in.

Odd.  I defer to Dr. John Mcgraw to rebut this LOL.  If Cortland is a 1, St. Johns of Minn. who had as many wins and less losses with a similar SOS, also has a legitimate claim.

Fisher went 9-14 against regionally ranked opponents and produced a strong strength of schedule. While the number of games is large and nine wins is good, the record is under .500 and there are double-digit losses. Heading into the conference tournament, Fisher closed the regular season 5-5 in its last 10 games with a 1-4 record in the final week. And while Fisher beat Stevens in the conference tournament, the Cardinals also lost twice to Ithaca which began the week lower in the regional rankings. St. John Fisher also had a losing record versus Stevens overall, 1-3.

In terms of common opponents, Cortland was 3-2 against Oswego while Fisher went 1-1. Cortland was 1-0 against Ithaca, Fisher went 2-3 (EDIT - 3-3). Both beat Canton, Elmira and Rochester. Outside of the region, Fisher beat Johns Hopkins while Cortland lost to JHU.

It should be noted that Cortland was 7-5 in games against regionally ranked opponents. Cortland also went 8-2 in its final 10 games and was 26-5 in its final 31 games between the regular season and the conference tournament.

Keep in mind, this isn't a head-to-head decision for the committee between Cortland and Fisher. In the regional rankings prior to this weekend, Cortland was first and Fisher was fourth. Fisher was in the mix against other teams around the nation not just teams in the region. Stronger conferences ended up taking multiple bids (NJAC, OAC, ASC) and some upsets kept out teams that in other years may have gotten into the tournament. Offhand, a result such as Concordia (Chicago) not winning the NACC tournament and taking up a Pool C selection could have knocked Fisher out.
#4
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 13, 2018, 10:23:46 AM
Pool A
Empire 8 - Ithaca
Liberty League - Union
Skyline - St. Joseph's (LI)
SUNYAC - Oswego

Pool C
Empire 8 - Stevens/St John Fisher
SUNYAC - Cortland

In the last regional rankings that were released, Cortland was slotted first and Oswego second. Based on the fact that neither team played this weekend, I gather those two will not change and that Cortland will be a one seed in Auburn. Cortland 7-5 vs regionally ranked teams (final published rankings), Oswego was 8-9 against regionally ranked opponents.

Does St. John Fisher jump Stevens in the rankings? I think one of the two may get in, depending on the national picture, but probably not both as the region as a whole is not strong enough for one conference to grab three bids. That said, another league, the NJAC, may very well get three teams into the NCAA tournament as it has three teams in the top 20 SOS - Rowan, TCNJ and Ramapo. Rutgers Camden may also have a shot. Rowan will be the NJAC's Pool A entrant.

Comparing St. John Fisher & Stevens
*In final published regional rankings, Stevens 3, St John Fisher 4
Record: St. John Fisher 29-16, Stevens 26-17
Head-to-Head: Stevens 3-1
SOS: St. John Fisher 28, Stevens 81
Record vs Regionally-Ranked: St John Fisher 9-14, Stevens 8-7*
*Also went 1-1 against previously ranked William Paterson and NYU. NYU was ranked for a while before falling out last week.
*Stevens finished the season 7-3 in its last 10, St. John Fisher went 5-5.
#5
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 10, 2018, 11:21:08 PM
Last published regional rankings were released today by the NCAA. St. Joseph's (LI) and Oswego State have already clinched NCAA tournament automatic bids.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3

   New York      
1.   SUNY Cortland   
2.   Oswego State   
3.   Stevens Institute of Technology   
4.   St. John Fisher   
5.   Ithaca   
6.   Union (New York)
7.   St. Joseph's (Long Island)   
8.   Farmingdale State   
9.   Merchant Marine   
#6
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 07, 2018, 04:02:05 PM
Quote from: airball55 on May 07, 2018, 01:08:04 PM
This...I cannot argue with LOL.  What are your thoughts on Union?

Not great after this past week but I still think they're a regionally ranked team. Hurt themselves by dropping games against both Trinity and Middlebury, neither of which made the NESCAC tournament field. Then, Union got swept by RPI on Saturday. Bounced back to grab second in the Liberty with a sweep on Sunday but I'm not sold on them. The record is really good overall though. I like Union's chances in the conference tournament though the conference is really tight so who knows what will happen in Rochester.

Union's SOS is 288, well below what ideally one should have. Compared to Ithaca, Union is about 100 spots lower. Looking at both Ithaca and Union, Ithaca has marquee wins over Redlands, Oswego, St. John Fisher and Stevens as well as a win over regionally ranked St. Josephs' (Long Island). Union has a win over UW Stevens Point. Both have some bad losses as well.
#7
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 07, 2018, 11:47:14 AM
Cortland's SOS is up to 132. OWP is a little worse, 156, but not horrid. The SOS number made a big jump in the last two weeks with five games against Oswego. The Red Dragons can further bolster their SOS by adding a game or two this week if they want to and it is logistically possible though it's late and also finals time in the Northeast at a lot of schools. However, as I said on Twitter, Cortland likely has done enough to get into the NCAA tournament as an at-large. Their biggest issues will be pitching depth as we saw in SUNYACs and hitting the ace or frontline starters of other teams.

Both Oswego and Fisher are in the top 40 in SOS though Fisher nearly had a disastrous week. A 12-run eighth against Keystone in the night cap of Saturday's twin bill provided a good win over a regionally ranked team and a top 100 SOS school.

Ithaca's SOS is rough but being ranked 5th in the region still merits an outside shot albeit a long one. Playing at least St. John Fisher next weekend and possibly Stevens will help. IMO Ithaca has to get to the championship round of Empire 8 tournament though to realistically be in the conversation.

Fisher likely is in the NCAA tournament regardless and Stevens, depending on what happens this weekend, may have a solid case.

#8
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 07, 2018, 09:24:03 AM
New York Region - Pool A Auto Bids

Empire 8 - TBD (Stevens, St John Fisher, Ithaca, Houghton)
Liberty League - (Rochester, Union, Vassar, RIT, RPI)
Skyline - St. Joseph's (Long Island)
SUNYAC - Oswego State

Possible Pool C At-Large Bids

SUNY Cortland
Stevens/St John Fisher/Ithaca
#9
New York Region / Re: BB: SUNYAC
May 05, 2018, 11:03:40 AM
It comes down to Cortland and Oswego for the title. Regardless of the result, I think both teams have done what they've needed to do to make the NCAA tournament.
#10
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 04, 2018, 09:27:54 AM
New rankings out yesterday. No surprises.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional-rankings

1   SUNY Cortland      
2   St. John Fisher      
3   Oswego State      
4   Stevens Institute of Technology
5   Ithaca      
6   Union (New York)      
7   Farmingdale State      
8   St. Joseph's (Long Island)   
9   New York University      

Cortland vs Oswego (SUNYAC tournament) and St John Fisher vs Stevens (rain make up) today weather permitting. Potentially another Cortland vs Oswego game later this weekend if both advance to the championship round of the SUNYAC tournament.

Farmingdale and St. Joseph's (LI) both are in the Skyline tournament today.

The Liberty League concludes its regular season schedule this weekend with rivalry match-ups. Each series will have a playoff impact in terms of the conference tournament -- RPI vs Union, Rochester vs RIT, Bard vs Vassar, St Lawrence vs Clarkson
#11
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
May 02, 2018, 09:48:31 AM
After yesterday's games, this is how I see it stacking up.

1. Cortland
2. St John Fisher
3. Oswego
4. Stevens
5. Ithaca
6. Union
7. Farmingdale
8. NYU
9. St Joseph's (LI)

St John Fisher can help itself with games upcoming against RIT, Stevens and Keystone (DH) before the Empire 8 tournament. I have said it before but I really like Brandon Potter's aggressive scheduling. One takeaway I have for the Cardinals from yesterday is that Scott Eisenmenger did not play. He was hit by a pitch in the series finale against Houghton in his first at bat and was out the rest of the game. Fisher still scored 12 runs without him but they'll need him healthy going forward. Huge loss if he is out for any length of time.

Oswego, like St John Fisher, has a very good SOS and OWP. The Lakers resume is solid with early season wins over now regionally ranked Va. Wesleyan, Southern Maine and Wartburg.  And you can add in yesterday's victory against a regionally ranked SJFC. A strong showing in the SUNYAC tournament should round out Oswego's resume nicely.

Cortland helped itself immensely with two wins at Oswego this last week. Red Dragons now host the conference tournament at home where they are 16-0 this spring; conversely 8-5 in true road games and 6-3 at a neutral site. As the committee however showed, SOS and OWP are extremely important and the numbers still are a little sluggish. In terms of wins against non NY regionally ranked teams, Cortland won twice at Salisbury to start the year and also has a win over Rutgers-Camden.  Cortland will get a boost if it gets another game or two against Oswego. However, if the Red Dragons fail to win the conference tournament, they could be in trouble depending on how St. John Fisher and/or Stevens does.

Stevens keeps chugging along and the Ducks outlasted Scranton last night under the lights. The Ducks travel to Fisher on Friday for a rain out make up and added a conference tournament tune-up with NYU for Monday. Stevens 8-1 in its last nine. Overall resume for Stevens is OK with the SOS a solid 114. The Ducks have non-NY region wins over Hopkins and Misericordia. Stevens sets up nicely and more games against St John Fisher will only help build SOS. They'll also have a tough match-up in their tournament opener next week against Houghton's ace.

#12
New York Region / Re: BB: SUNYAC
April 28, 2018, 03:58:09 PM
Quote from: Jim Dixon on April 28, 2018, 02:17:39 PM
Quote from: jdex on April 28, 2018, 11:31:14 AM
Cortland at Oswego on Saturday rained out. No new date. Rain and sn............ due Sunday
     Oswego  on Tuesday at 24-9 Fisher


It helps to make the decision about the Cortland/Oswego game with the conference wrapped up.

True but Oswego would've helped its potential at-large resume with a win over a regionally ranked team. Tough break for them.
#13
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
April 26, 2018, 03:25:30 PM
First rankings are out...

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional-rankings

NEW YORK   
1   St. John Fisher   
2   SUNY Cortland   
3   Oswego State   
4   Stevens Institute of Technology   
5   Union (New York)   
6   Ithaca   
7   New York University   
8   St. Joseph's (Long Island)   
9   Farmingdale State   

Based on SOS, no surprise that St. John Fisher is ahead of Cortland. Red Dragons didn't help themselves either by dropping back-to-back games to New Paltz and Hamilton. Cortland SOS will get a bump this weekend with games against Oswego.

I'm a little surprised Ithaca is over NYU however again, SOS and OWP & OOWP likely playing a big role.
#14
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
April 24, 2018, 08:33:16 AM
I don't think we will see too much deviation from our guesses just based on past history. Maybe a downstate team from the Skyline slides in towards the bottom. Ithaca and Rochester are the closest among the upstate teams on the outside looking in and they'll play a home-and-home this week weather permitting. Unless someone can go on a run in these last few weeks, I'm thinking we'll see a combination of NJAC frontrunners TCNJ/Rowan/Ramapo headed for Auburn as a 1 or 2 seed. Toss Keystone in that group as well plus another team or two from New England or the Mideast.

On a side note, with the CSAC dropping to five teams, if I'm the Empire 8, I'd be looking at Keystone as a possible affiliate member.
#15
New York Region / Re: New York Region 2018
April 23, 2018, 03:26:42 PM
This past weekend may have been, if I'm not mistaken, the first nice weather weekend all season. It only took until the third weekend of April. Hopefully the dry weather trend will continue into this weekend with a huge series between Cortland and Oswego on tap for the Port City.

1. Cortland - The 20-game winning streak came to an end but the Red Dragons entered the weekend 2nd in Division III in team ERA and 6th in fielding percentage. The loss to New Paltz on Sunday marked the first time since March 14 that Cortland has conceded five or more runs. Should Cortland drop the series to Oswego this weekend, Cortland's SOS (190) could come into play in terms of being sent out of region.

2. St John Fisher - Overall body of work strong for the Cardinals despite dropping two to Stevens. If it were just head-to-head, I'd put the Ducks over the Cardinals but Fisher has an SOS of 33. Fisher is doing it with offense - 30 home runs as a team. Scott Eisenmenger has a 10 game hit streak and five home runs in those games.

3. Oswego - Very similar to St. John Fisher with a strong resume despite conceding two of three to Brockport. Oswego's pitching has been strong with the mound men carving out a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. No pitcher has walked more than 10 men overall. Key game for the Lakers on Tuesday against Ithaca on Tuesday. Should be noted Oswego and Fisher will play a second game this year and that will be on May 1 at Fisher.

T4. Stevens - The Ducks lead the Empire 8 with an 11-3 record which contains a sweep at St John Fisher. However, Stevens is hurt by a 9-11 non-conference record. Stevens helped itself by beating a perennial Mid-Atlantic power in Misericordia but then split with SUNY Oneonta at home this past weekend. A rain-out makeup with St John Fisher in early May could determine who hosts the league tournament. The Ducks have a great 1-2 at the top of their rotation with Charlie Ruegger and Danny Poidomani.

T4. NYU - With no conference tournament to play in, NYU will close its regular season this coming weekend at home versus Emory. The Violets won their opener at Case a few weekends ago but fell in the overall series then bounced back with four wins in five outings total in games with John Jay & Brandeis. NYU's big three offensively of Coleman Hendershot, Jonathan Iaione and Coltrane Tait are absolutely mashing the baseball with Hendershot flirting with a .400 batting average, 60+ RBI season. Unfortunately NYU is hurt by its SOS (314). Don't think NYU will snag a Pool B bid but could possibly claim a Pool C bid if it can take care of business versus Emory.

6. Union - Since returning from Florida, the Dutchmen are 15-4. Union is currently a half game out of first in the Liberty. As a team, the Dutchmen are batting .360 with six swingers at .398 or higher. Jack Koch is hitting an astounding .494 albeit with just 79 at bats. Union has Vassar this weekend in a key series with the Brewers in third in the compact Liberty League. Union also closes with RPI in a home-and-home.