D3 Women's Soccer 2017 Season

Started by DivisionIIISoccerSource, August 04, 2017, 02:06:59 PM

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2xfaux

Well, I am certainly in trouble for spending too much time trying for figure out what is going on in d-3 women's soccer this year. ;) .  It seems to me that the teams to beat as we head into the tournaments are Chicago, TCNJ, Hardin Simmons and Carnegie Mellon. 

Does anyone know why on the women's regional rankings there is no non-conference SOS listed?

Abitofeverything

Any word on potential changes in leadership for some programs?

William Peace University just posted today!
Concordia University-Chicago has been open (with Interim) since mid-Sept

WUPHF

Quote from: 2xfaux on October 26, 2017, 03:02:02 PM
It seems to me that the teams to beat as we head into the tournaments are Chicago, TCNJ, Hardin Simmons and Carnegie Mellon. 

Just my opinion, but I do think you left out a third UAA team worthy of the teams to beat list, but I am willing to wait for the weekend before others get on board.

deiscanton

#48
Quote from: WUH on October 30, 2017, 11:12:50 PM
Quote from: 2xfaux on October 26, 2017, 03:02:02 PM
It seems to me that the teams to beat as we head into the tournaments are Chicago, TCNJ, Hardin Simmons and Carnegie Mellon. 

Just my opinion, but I do think you left out a third UAA team worthy of the teams to beat list, but I am willing to wait for the weekend before others get on board.

Wash U and Messiah have to be considered on the teams to beat list as well.  I am willing to hold off on Williams and William Smith; but those are also very strong teams year in and year out in NCAAs.

Speaking of the UAA, the Case women got their first ever victory over Emory on Sunday at DiSanto Field in Cleveland, with a final score of 5-2.  Emory was 28-0-2 vs Case prior to last Sunday.  Emory needed those 2 wins over Case and Rochester to stay in the hunt for a Pool C bid, but Case's victory most likely ended those NCAA hopes for the Emory women.  Emory's primary winning percentage is now too low for a Pool C bid.  (7-6-3) (.536 winning percentage), with an overall secondary winning percentage of .594 still being too low.  Even if Emory wins on Saturday vs Rochester, they are now on the wrong side of the bubble.

Brandeis and NYU are on the proverbial Pool C bubble going into Saturday.  The winner of the Brandeis v NYU match will most likely be selected as on a Pool C bid, but it is possible that the UAA can get 4 Pool C bids in this year given the strength of schedule of the UAA Pool C teams.  The number of wins and ties vs regionally ranked opponents are the big question for Brandeis and NYU.  Brandeis only has 2 ties vs regionally ranked opponents this season (the equivalent of 1 win)-- those ties are to Tufts (#6 New England in week 2 rankings), and Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes in week 2 reg. rankings).  NYU currently has a win over Vassar (#8 East in week 2 rankings), a tie vs Scranton (#4 Mid Atlantic in week 2 rankings), and a tie vs Emory (#6 South Atlantic in week 2 rankings.)  Both Brandeis and NYU, (along with Carnegie Mellon-- however the Tartans are already a lock for a Pool C selection to NCAAs.),  have declared for the ECAC Div III Women's Soccer Tournament as a backup situation-- so both Brandeis and NYU will be playing a first round postseason game (either NCAA or ECAC) on Saturday, November 11 regardless of the results of Saturday's match.  The ECAC field this year is a 16 team tournament spread out over 2 weekends; most of the ECAC declared teams are from Pennsylvania, with a few teams from New Jersey, New York, Maryland, and only 2 ECAC declared teams from Massachusetts.

The Week 3 regional rankings get released later today, and the R v R in these rankings will count as regionally ranked results for the national selection call.  Any results vs new teams added in the week 4 rankings will also count for selection purposes.

As of now, with conference tournaments still to be played, I have already pencilled in 4 of the 20 Pool C bids.  These 4 currently go to the loser of the Chicago/Wash U match on Saturday, Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes), Connecticut College (NESCAC-- #3 New England), and Middlebury (NESCAC-- #4 New England).  16 Pool C bids are yet to be decided.

deiscanton

#49
UAA teams in Week 3 regional rankings November 1, 2017

Chicago-- #1 Central
Wash U-- #2 Central
Carnegie Mellon-- #1 Great Lakes
Brandeis-- #5 New England (of 12)
New York Univ -- #6 East (of 8)
Emory-- #8 South Atlantic (of 9)

deiscanton

As of this afternoon, I have 6 Pool C candidates either locks or safely in, and will most likely be selected on Monday:

1.). Loser of Chicago vs Wash U on Saturday-- Wash U if the game ends in a draw; Chicago if Wash U wins the match.
2.)  Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
3.). Connecticut College (#3 New England)
4.). Middlebury (#4 New England)
5.). Wartburg (#3 North)
6.). St Thomas Minnesota (#4 North)

By my count, 14 Pool C's are still left to be decided depending upon the results of conf tournament and game action this weekend.

CarpIsNotAFish

Quote from: deiscanton on November 02, 2017, 02:50:31 PM
As of this afternoon, I have 6 Pool C candidates either locks or safely in, and will most likely be selected on Monday:

1.). Loser of Chicago vs Wash U on Saturday-- Wash U if the game ends in a draw; Chicago if Wash U wins the match.
2.)  Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
3.). Connecticut College (#3 New England)
4.). Middlebury (#4 New England)
5.). Wartburg (#3 North)
6.). St Thomas Minnesota (#4 North)

By my count, 14 Pool C's are still left to be decided depending upon the results of conf tournament and game action this weekend.

I don't think both Conn College and Middlebury will make it. Both suffered upsets in the Conf tourney to unranked Amherst and Hamilton. Tufts on the other hand is in the NESCAC semi's (vs Hamilton). If they make it to the finals look for them to replace one or both of their conference foes.

I think you could add Rowan (#3 in S Atlantic) unless Montclair State manages to beat TCNJ. And add #2 in the Mid Atlantic and #10 overall Johns Hopkins to the Pool C locks if they should lose their conf title match.

deiscanton

#52
Quote from: CarpIsNotAFish on November 02, 2017, 03:09:00 PM
Quote from: deiscanton on November 02, 2017, 02:50:31 PM
As of this afternoon, I have 6 Pool C candidates either locks or safely in, and will most likely be selected on Monday:

1.). Loser of Chicago vs Wash U on Saturday-- Wash U if the game ends in a draw; Chicago if Wash U wins the match.
2.)  Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
3.). Connecticut College (#3 New England)
4.). Middlebury (#4 New England)
5.). Wartburg (#3 North)
6.). St Thomas Minnesota (#4 North)

By my count, 14 Pool C's are still left to be decided depending upon the results of conf tournament and game action this weekend.

I don't think both Conn College and Middlebury will make it. Both suffered upsets in the Conf tourney to unranked Amherst and Hamilton. Tufts on the other hand is in the NESCAC semi's (vs Hamilton). If they make it to the finals look for them to replace one or both of their conference foes.

I think you could add Rowan (#3 in S Atlantic) unless Montclair State manages to beat TCNJ. And add #2 in the Mid Atlantic and #10 overall Johns Hopkins to the Pool C locks if they should lose their conf title match.

Middlebury defeated #1 New England Williams just a few days before their loss in the NESCAC tournament.  Conn College also has plenty of regionally ranked wins over teams, including a head to head win over Middlebury during the season.  The entirety of the season has to be taken into account.  You are over emphasizing a conference tourney loss-- by their nature, most Pool C candidates lose their last game before the NCAA tournament-- in what round of the conference tournament they lose in is usually not a factor if they demonstrate results during the season before the loss.

I have added Wartburg and St Thomas Minnesota in for the same reasons.  Both teams were upset in the conference tournaments, but scored results ( either wins or ties) against teams in the #1 to 4 range in both the North and West regions.

Johns Hopkins is so noted-- but I expect that the Blue Jays will win their conference tournament.  If an upset happens in Centennial Conf tourney, I will update.  Similarly with other teams in the #1 or #2 rankings in their respective regions-- but I have to get the results of those tournaments.

I am holding off on Rowan.  Rowan is currently #4 in South Atlantic, not #3, and may drop 1 spot in final regional rankings depending on results of the ODAC tournament.  Rowan is on the Pool C bubble, because while the Profs have an excellent winning percentage, and their SOS of .561 is competitive; Montclair State dropped out of the regional rankings this week so the Profs cannot count the two ties with Montclair State as regionally ranked ties. Rowan goes on the board with only 1 regionally ranked win vs #8 Mid Atlantic Arcadia. Therefore, I have the Profs on the bubble, and am not yet ready to award a Pool C slot to Rowan.

deiscanton

For reference, here are the NESCAC teams positions in the NCAA regional rankings this week; which reflects the results of the season including the first round of the NESCAC tournament-- with my predictions

#1 New England-- Williams-- Pool A/C lock if loses in NESCAC tourney.
#3 New England-- Conn College-- Pool C likely
#4 New England-- Middlebury-- Pool C likely
#6 New England-- Tufts-- Pool C bubble
#7 New England-- Hamilton-- needs to win AQ.
#9 New England-- Amherst-- needs to win AQ.
#10 New England-- Bowdoin-- wrong side of Pool C-- season over.

deiscanton

Someone's Pool C bubble just popped last night.  In the West Region, #2 West Cal Lutheran lost in the SCIAC semifinals to Whittier 3-2 in extra time.  Whittier's golden goal was actually an own goal conceded by the Cal Lutheran goalkeeper on a defensive misplay in the 3rd minute of extra time.

Cal Lutheran goes to the Pool C bubble with a record of 15-3-2; for a winning percentage of .800; a competitive SOS of .569, and a regionally ranked win over #5 South Atlantic Virginia Wesleyan (Va Wesleyan could go up to #4 South Atlantic over Rowan after the ODAC tourney concludes.). Cal Lutheran also has a loss vs #2 South Atlantic Christopher Newport.  Right now, that would give Cal Lutheran an edge over Rowan in the Pool C hunt.

Pomona Pitzer is one win away from returning to the NCAAs.  They play Whittier tomorrow for the Pool A AQ from the SCIAC.

deiscanton

#55
NEWMAC Tournament update

Semifinal at MIT-- Saturday, November 4-- 10:30 AM ET

#11 New England Springfield vs Babson

MIT has a bye to the finals on Sunday and will play the winner of Springfield vs Babson for the AQ.

Wheaton (MA)'s college president banned their women's soccer team from competing in the rest of the NEWMAC tournament due to one of the players dressing in blackface in a Halloween costume at a party over the previous weekend.  Many of the other team players were also at that party.  The incident was reported in the Boston Globe metro section yesterday, and was also reported in the Attleboro MA Sun Chronicle.  In a letter sent to Wheaton College students and staff, president Dennis Hanno condemned the student for wearing a blackface Halloween costume and her soccer teammates for participating with her in the incident and attempting to cover it up afterwards.




deiscanton

The first two automatic bids get awarded today.

This afternoon, Grove City and Thomas More play in the Presidents Athletic Conf final for the first Pool A bid to this year's NCAA tournament.

Tonight, TCNJ plays Montclair State for the NJAC AQ.

deiscanton

#57
Thomas More has officially become the first team into the NCAA DIII Women's Soccer Tournament, defeating Grove City 2-0 for the PAC AQ.  Goals came in the 8th minute and the 85th minute.  Thomas More almost converted a penalty kick in the 69th minute.  Congrats to the Thomas More Saints for becoming the first team officially in.

Grove City has declared for ECACs, so the Wolverines should be playing next Saturday no matter what happens.  Grove City advanced to the ECAC semifinals last year before bowing to NYU.  Grove City will most likely get an ECAC bid on Monday and then hope to win the ECACs.

deiscanton

Congratulations to TCNJ women's soccer coach Joe Russo on achieving your 500th career victory last night.

TCNJ becomes the second team officially into the NCAAs by clinching the NJAC AQ.

WUPHF

Washington University with a convincing 2-1 road win over previously undefeated UChicago...