MBB: NESCAC

Started by cameltime, April 27, 2005, 02:38:16 PM

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pjunito

NESCAC, who rounded out the top 10?

nescac1

Augustana 3, Williams 4, then Cabrini, Albertus Magnus, Dickinson, Randolph-Macon, Virginia Wesleyan, RIC. 

I think the top six is not bad -- Williams won't be there, but they published post-transfer, so can't knock them for that.  Amherst is a bit too high, and seems based on assuming the two D1 transfers will be instant superstars, which is certainly possible, but very uncertain.  Whitewater and Augustana would be my top two, and Cabrini and AMU both have plenty of talent, but both are teams that need to prove they can be more than just a collection of elite individual players.  I actually think AMU will be the top team in New England if the two incoming transfers are as good as hyped.  Dickinson, RMC, VWU (huh?  Graduate by far their best guy from a team that didn't make the Elite 8) and RIC (lots of changes, including the coaching change, from a team that was definitely not top ten material last year) all seem like major, MAJOR stretches to me. 

Also, they list Aaron Walton-Moss as both a first and second team all-American (on the second team, he plays for IWU).  That would be a neat trick.  Hello, editors??? 

pjunito

Rankings as you know nescac are always fun to discuss. I would be very happy if Albertus is top 6 in region, let alone in the nation. They did bring in a lot of players - two transfer who should get a lot of playing time. I agree, they need to play more as a team instead of as individuals. I think they will be much better defensively! They also have 8 seniors.

I enjoyed reading all of the post throughout the summer. Along with a would class group of Colleges, NESCAC also has the best and most knowledgeable board. 

P'bearfan

QuoteStreet & Smith's released its preseason top 10 for Division 3, for what it's worth.  Amherst is ranked first -- S&S cites to the two D1 transfers, in particular, to support that ranking.  I think it might be a bit premature to put this Amherst team so high after losing Toomey, Killian and Kalema, and without any seniors of note, but they certainly have accumulated ample talent, and I anticipate that by next year, they will be worthy of a number one preseason ranking and likely be the national pre-season favorite -- they just need to gather some experience playing together with so many new pieces.  Whitewater, who should be ranked first, is second.  Williams is ranked fourth, but alas, that was of course before the big Robinson transfer.   I think Williams would have easily been a top-five team with Robinson, but without, even top 25 may be a pretty substantial stretch.  No NESCAC players made pre-season all-American teams (Robinson of course is listed as a first-teamer); Connor Green received honorable mention.

Interesting pre-season rankings.  I really can't agree with the Amherst ranking.  They lost far more than people realize and there's no evidence that the D1 transfers are going to plug these holes. 

Regarding Williams – if the rankings were done before Maker and Robinson left I might see it.  Even then the ranking might be too high because it will be so difficult to replace everything Mayer did.   Certainly with the loss of Robinson and a new coach it's hard to justify a top 10 ranking.

I'll have more on each team in the coming weeks but this week I'll look at Colby.

P'bearfan

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Colby

Summary
Colby is bringing back all its major contributors and with one of the NESCAC's star big men in Chris Hudnut they are poised to move up the conference rankings.

Departing players
Jonathan Kalin
Jesse Coulon
Ben Brassord

Offense
The departing players only accounted for 3.9% of the minutes played and 2.6% of the total points scored.  Last season Colby averaged only averaged 75 ppg and relied heavily on interior scoring (52% of points were 2 pt FGs).  Colby may need more long range scoring if they want to compete with the conference leaders.  Fortunately for the Mules, they return 5 players who shot 34.5% - 43% from behind the arc last year so they have the required pieces to make this an expanded part of their offensive attack. 

Rebounding
Last year Colby averaged 35.8 rpg (9th in the conference) and we should expect more of the same this year.  Hudnut and Patrick Stewart are clearly the leaders here.  Last year they combined for 42.7% of the Mules total rebounds (8.4 and 6.9 rpg respectively).  That's a strong performance by these two players but therein lies the problem: an over-reliance on two players to clean the glass.  By contrast, the top 2 rebounders for Trinity, which led the conference in rebounding last year, only accounted for 33% of the Bantams' total rebounds.

In 6 of the Mules' 11 losses last year Hudnut and Stewart were held below their combined season rebounding average (15.3 rgp).  In a 7th loss they were just slightly above that average (16 rpg).  So effectively 64% of Colby's losses were due in part to opponents being able to keep Hudnut and Stewart in check on the boards.  It seems that spreading the rebounding load in Waterville would go a long way to improving the Mules' performance this season.

Ball control
Last season Colby's assist to turnover ratio was 1.13 – and we should expect the same disciplined ball control next season as the departing players only accounted for a total of 6 assists and 8 turnovers all season.

nescac1

P'bearfan, the rankings mentioned the App hiring, but came out before the Robinson transfer.  Given that, I actually think four was fair for Williams at that time, because Robinson would have been one of the two best players in the country, and Wohl, Rooke-Ley, Kilcullen, Greenman, Aronowitz are all strong supporting players.  But now each one of those players will have to essentially move up a spot in the pecking order, which is a tall task, and while all are very capable offensive players, none are all-Americans, and that is a huge difference.  Now, a finish anywhere from 10 to about 60 in terms of national rankings would not surprise me.  Much like about 5-6 other NESCAC teams. 

It's going to be a REALLY unpredictable year, not just in NESCAC, but in the country as a whole.  Remember, almost EVERY top team from last year has huge holes to fill -- Stevens Point got decimated by graduation, IWU loses essentially its entire front court, Amherst loses its top three guys from last year (albeit brings in plenty to replace them), Wash U's stars are gone, Cabrini lost its coach and several strong senior players, Mary Washington got decimated by graduation, and so on.  Of the top teams only Whitewater (which did lose some very strong players to graduation, but brings back two elite players) figures to resemble the same team as last year.  As a result, the top ten really is WIDE open next year -- Augustana looks to be one of the best two returning teams on paper, and they finished out of the top 25! 

P'bearfan

QuoteIt's going to be a REALLY unpredictable year, not just in NESCAC, but in the country as a whole.

I couldn't agree more!  It's going to be an interesting season.

nescacobserver

It is pretty amazing that Amherst can get a pre-season #1 ranking after losing Twomey, Killian and Kalema, but some were questioning the fate of last year's team after losing Workman, Big Pete, and Allan Williamson (quite a trio), and Amherst still made it back to the Final 4.  Hixon just seems to have a way of reloading talent, and it looks like he's done it again this year.  Other than Killcullen coming from BC, it's very rare for a NESCAC school to get a D1 transfer, let alone two.  So that must have played heavily into the thinking on the #1 ranking. But I'm sure Hixon isn't putting up copies of the Street & Smith article in his locker room.  There's a LONG season ahead.

middhoops

I actually agree with the Amherst ranking.  The top to bottom talent is scary.  Most of us assume the fact that young players sit on the LJ bench that they're not ready to play.  Truth is they'd start for 95% of other D3 teams, and starring for most.
My curiosity is focused on Tufts.  Impressive talent.  Maybe more than ever, but can they get it done?
If Sabety and Palleschi play together, only Amherst can deal with them. 
Albertus Magnus will be really interesting, too.

amh63

As conference football arrives, I want to leave the board with a " tease" sort of thought.
If one checks the single game openings board...and makes an assumption that Amherst 's schedule is still not complete....Jan. slot....one sees that Albertus Magnus  is also seeking a game.
A possible mid season game between two pre season highly ranked teams ...both with questions at this time...would be great for the NE region.  However, do not believe it would benefit either teams.
Thoughts on such a game.  Amherst would be the better site due to larger seating venue.

P'bearfan

QuoteIf Sabety and Palleschi play together, only Amherst can deal with them.

I agree that Tufts could be formidable with Palleschi and Sabety but I think that Trinity and Bowdoin could also  handle them (in addition to Amherst).

magicman

Quote from: amh63 on September 14, 2014, 07:53:47 PM
If one checks the single game openings board...and makes an assumption that Amherst 's schedule is still not complete....Jan. slot....one sees that Albertus Magnus  is also seeking a game.
A possible mid season game between two pre season highly ranked teams ...both with questions at this time...would be great for the NE region.  However, do not believe it would benefit either teams.
Thoughts on such a game.  Amherst would be the better site due to larger seating venue.

Interesting to see that Albertus Magnus is looking for a game to fill their schedule. I know a certain coach from a Top 25 team that placed 5 phone calls to the Albertus Magnus coach this summer to arrange a game this year and he couldn't even get a return phone call. He was even willing to play the game at Albertus Magnus. Now AM is looking for a game? I was surprised because one of the knocks against AM is that they play in a weak league and they need to beef up their non-conference schedule. They had a perfect opportunity to do so and yet failed to make an effort with a team that would have boosted their SOS.   

pjunito

I would love to take a drive up 91 to watch Amherst vs Albertus. Can Hoopsville make this happen?

NescacFan5

I am a long time reader and a first time poster. I am a big fan of college basketball at all levels but there is something about the passion (specifically on this board) that people have for the NESCAC that I am drawn to. I am a former player myself and since leaving the league have stayed closely connected to all of it's happening. I must say, in comparison to years past I am confident in saying that this year will be the hardest to predict. After the departure of so much talent it will be very interesting to see who and what teams rise to the top. Figured the best way to initiate myself is by making some bold predictions... So here they are:

Player of the Year:
Jayde Dawson- Had the opportunity to watch him play several times in highschool and the reality of it is he is a far superior athlete to anyone else in the league. His combination of quickness, speed and strength will be boarder line unstoppable this year. He will score with consistency (efficiency is the only question mark) and will be most effective in transition. I think he is relatively unknown by many here on this board but I think you all will be thoroughly impressed.

First Team:
John Swords- the big man continues his upward trend of improving every year. His offensive game is continuously improving and on the defensive end his presence is unlike anyone else in the league. Look for him to post similar numbers.
Jayde Dawson- as mentioned above he will take the league by storm.
Chris Hudnut: He will build upon his impressive sophomore campaign  by continuing to post big numbers. In my eyes, he is one of the few (maybe even only?) offensively gifted low post scorers left this year. He will continue to improve along with Colby as a team.
Dan Wohl: he's been an essential component to the Ephs success over the last two years but now it is his time to step up. An expanded role as well as added weight on his shoulders I believe will bring out the best in Wohl. His athleticism and versatility will make him one of the most dangerous players in the league.
Jaquan Starks: He's Trinity's most gifted and dangerous scorer and I think he will lead them further then they've been in the last 3 or 4 years. He is capable of scoring in bunches and I think he'll do just that. His matchup with Dawson has the potential to be a GREAT guard battle.

Second Team:
Hunter Sabety- I'm guessing that many may have him on their first team but I actually believe that the re-emergence of Palleschi will in fact hurt Sabety's production. They essentially do the same thing on both ends and it will be a challenge to play them both at the same time for expansive minutes for a variety of reasons. I think he will add on to his impressive first year in the league but he won't solidify himself as a first teamer just yet.
Hayden Rooke-Ley: Believe it or not I actually contemplated listing HRL as a first teamer. Granted this is all assuming he stays healthy for the entire year (which has been a reoccurring issue over his career) but I think he could actually end up being Williams' best player. He is tough physical kid who can flat out shoot and with an expanded role he has the potential to flourish.
Patrick Stewart: He showed signs of being an all league player last year and I think he will continue to improve as he fills out that wirey frame. He will play a major role as Colby has a chance to be near the top of the league near the seasons end.
Connor Green: He started out last year torching the nets and expect to see more of that this year as well. With the absence of Killian and Toomey, Green will take on an expanded role and in many games much of the scoring load will be on him and Dawson. The biggest question mark with him is efficiency. Regardless, he will certainly post an impressive number under PPG.
Harry Rafferty- This pick may surprise some but expect Rafferty to be MUCH improved from last year. Wesleyan as team is one year older and as a result the floor general will have less issues to worry about. I think as a team they will vastly improve and Rafferty's numbers across the board will sky rocket as well.

Honorable Mention:
Mike Boornazian
Hunter Merryman
Dylan Sinnickson
Lucas Hausman
Mike Greenman
Tom Palleschi
Steve Haladyna
Jack Mackey

Rookie of the Year:
Sean McNally- After the departure of almost all of Conn Colleges talent, McNally will be the highlight in their new freshmen class who is expected to turn around the direction of their program. He will get major minutes and has the skill set to score in a variety of ways. His length in skill is comparable to a poor mans Duncan Robinson. Expect him to be the guy for the Camels in years to come.

My team predictions will soon follow but I first wanted to stir up some debate on individual awards. I am interested to hear feedback and criticism. I'm looking forward to a great year! How many days until November 1st?!

amh63

NescacFan5...welcome aboard!  Jumped in with both feet...I see. :)
As a former player, have to respect your views......but...no mention of D. George of Amherst.  If Ben Pollack returns fit and George gets bigger....I expect both to neutralize any of the front court players you mention.   Still, your views are always welcome...to stir the pot.