BB: USAC: USA South Athletic Conference

Started by narch, December 30, 2005, 10:58:27 PM

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LTBB1971

How about the following guys...any thoughts?

OF/P - Andrew Kirks (Averett, Junior) - 6'1, 190 LBS (.364, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 22 XBH, .526 SLUG%, 2.25 ERA, 10 GS, 2 CG, 72 INN, .228 BAVG)
P - Austin Chrismon (CNU, Junior) - 6'3, 230 LBS (11 GS, 1.74 ERA, 3 CG, 78 INN, 86 K, .216 BAVG)
P - Matt Verdillo (CNU, Senior) - 6'0, 190 LBS (20 G, 24.2 INN, 36 K, .267 BAVG)
OF - Justin Weaver (CNU, Junior) - 6'2, 195 LBS (.393, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 36 R, 22 XBH, 11 SB, .513 OBP, .600 SLUG%)
OF - Brandon Thigpen (Methodist, Senior) - 6'2, 200 LBS (6 HR, 20 XBH, 21 BB, .500 SLUG%)

PNeal7

These are just my thoughts. Catfish would be the best source of info here.

Kirks - Never personally seen the kid play, but have spoken with people who have. I don't have enough info to grade/judge him.

Chrismon - I expect him to be drafted this year or next. Getting drafted out of high school certainly helps.

Verdillo - His numbers as a SR, and his numbers in the VBL both summers, do not help his case. When on, he has very good stuff that could pitch at the Indy Ball or lower MiLB level, but the consistency may be an issue. I would say he does not continue his playing career, as much as I hate to say that as I know the kid personally, and he even lived with my parents his two summers in the VBL.

Weaver - This will be interesting. He has decent size (6'2", 195) and all of his 'tools' are slightly above average. Depending on how he performs this summer in the VBL, and if he can add power numbers to his SR campaign, he may have a shot. Running an above average 60 time would certainly help. It is an uphil climb though, as it is with all of these guys. 

Thigpen - This is also an interesting case, as he falls into a similar case as Weaver. He has good size (6"2, 200), hits from the left side, and has shown flashes of power potential (19 HR's over his SO, JR, and SR season). He also had a good summer in the VBL last summer, as he was named a VBL All-Star. I would think that if Trey Such did not continue his playing career, that Thigpen would not either, unless Indy Ball calls his name

Catfishncwc

#4157
QuoteThat 6-4 guy that throws 92 may never see a day in the "higher levels" because he can't throw the ball over the plate.

The best major league pitcher of my lifetime barely touched 90 after his first couple of seasons, and was getting guys out throwing mid 80s fastballs at age 40+. He was only 6 feet tall.

I would think late in the draft teams would want players that can be productive at some level.

Any of those 3 pitchers ever make it?

Spence,
Again the Draft is not placing nice ball players in the low levels to fill roster spots for your Rookie Ball and Low Level A team.  It is the hope of that player with a Tool Set to develop that tool set to help the big club. 
Also that pitcher who was throwing mid 80's in his 40+ age lets not forget Maddux could ramp it up to 94 in his younger days.  But Maddux was a once in a generation pitcher and when comparing D3 fringe prospects to one of  the greatest of our generation that kinda puts your argument a little off base.   
Hundreds of players are drafted each who never develop, that is why their are 40 rounds and at least 5 levels of minor league teams for each MLB organization .  It is to develop.  You can't make someone throwing 86 mph at the age of 22 throw 94 at the age of 25.  But if you get that kid throwing 92 to control his FB and develop a off-speed out pitch you have something their. 
I played with and against plenty of players in the USA South/Dixie who when I was playing I thought were pro prospects and could not understand why they were not signed and drafted.  But after becoming a scout and seeing all the talent at D1, D2, D3, Juco and HS level it really shrinks what you think is a pro prospect and not. 
So again plenty of D3 players could play at the lower levels of pro ball but filling roster spots is not the point, it is developing talent and tools to help the big club. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Catfishncwc

Quote from: LTHSdad on April 18, 2013, 09:05:09 AM
How about the following guys...any thoughts?

OF/P - Andrew Kirks (Averett, Junior) - 6'1, 190 LBS (.364, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 22 XBH, .526 SLUG%, 2.25 ERA, 10 GS, 2 CG, 72 INN, .228 BAVG)
P - Austin Chrismon (CNU, Junior) - 6'3, 230 LBS (11 GS, 1.74 ERA, 3 CG, 78 INN, 86 K, .216 BAVG)
P - Matt Verdillo (CNU, Senior) - 6'0, 190 LBS (20 G, 24.2 INN, 36 K, .267 BAVG)
OF - Justin Weaver (CNU, Junior) - 6'2, 195 LBS (.393, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 36 R, 22 XBH, 11 SB, .513 OBP, .600 SLUG%)
OF - Brandon Thigpen (Methodist, Senior) - 6'2, 200 LBS (6 HR, 20 XBH, 21 BB, .500 SLUG%)
Chrismon is probably the only one on the list to be a draftable prospect.  I like Weaver but OF's like him grow on trees and he does not have that one tool that really shows.  Maybe next year as a undrafted signee or Indy Ball.  The others are all good college players but I think Indy ball would be the future for them at the next level. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

108 Stitches

Also if anyone has not read the piece in the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago about Velocity and pitchers should do so. Today 95 is the old reference of 90. Trinity for example has 6 kids that can touch 90, while that was a big deal a few years ago it is not so much anymore. They have one kid who has not pitched a lot of innings over his career there, but I can almost guarantee someone will draft him because he has hit 96 in the past and sits low 90's. IMO he is a player a pro team will use one of their picks for sine he will be a 15 rounder with low $ spent and has upside once he gets into an organization that can help him develop.

PNeal7

Very good point 108. Touching 90 MPH isn't nearly what is used to be. Heck, every MLB teams bullpen is filled with 6+ guys that consistently sit in the low 90's and run it up into the mid/upper 90's fairly often. Every measurable tool is improving (MPH, 60 Yd Dash Time, Catcher Pop Time, Home to First Time), as what used to be considered above average is now in the average range at best.

If the kid from Trinity can touch 96 (and more often than once every blue moon), and sits in the 91-92 range, he will be drafted without a doubt.

PNeal7

Here's an example of numbers at the D3 level that will get you noticed (or look up Bruce Maxwell's numbers from last season, he was a 2nd Rd Pick by the A's):

Joseph Odom (6'2", 200) - Huntingdon College

.400 (50/125), 13 HR's, 51 RBI's, 20 BB's

Spence

#4162
Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 18, 2013, 10:44:42 AM
QuoteThat 6-4 guy that throws 92 may never see a day in the "higher levels" because he can't throw the ball over the plate.

The best major league pitcher of my lifetime barely touched 90 after his first couple of seasons, and was getting guys out throwing mid 80s fastballs at age 40+. He was only 6 feet tall.

I would think late in the draft teams would want players that can be productive at some level.

Any of those 3 pitchers ever make it?

Spence,
Again the Draft is not placing nice ball players in the low levels to fill roster spots for your Rookie Ball and Low Level A team.  It is the hope of that player with a Tool Set to develop that tool set to help the big club. 

I disagree. That might be what they say they're doing, but they're not. They're looking for square pegs to fit into square holes.

Also that pitcher who was throwing mid 80's in his 40+ age lets not forget Maddux could ramp it up to 94 in his younger days.

Yeah before he was actually good. He was better when he didn't throw as hard, both in his career and in games. He often said he backed off when he was in a jam, rather than throwing harder.

  But Maddux was a once in a generation pitcher and when comparing D3 fringe prospects to one of  the greatest of our generation that kinda puts your argument a little off base.   

Why? Because he was good? It proves that you don't have to be able to throw the ball through a brick wall to be a good pitcher at the major league level. But scouts operate as if you do, and in fairness to them its because that's what the ballclubs are looking for too.

Hundreds of players are drafted each who never develop, that is why their are 40 rounds and at least 5 levels of minor league teams for each MLB organization.  It is to develop.  You can't make someone throwing 86 mph at the age of 22 throw 94 at the age of 25.

This is false. There have been guys that picked up significant velocity as a result of mechanical adjustments, training regimen, etc. It's less common at that age, but for the most part only college seniors would be 22 when drafted and many players are drafted before that.

I played with and against plenty of players in the USA South/Dixie who when I was playing I thought were pro prospects and could not understand why they were not signed and drafted.  But after becoming a scout and seeing all the talent at D1, D2, D3, Juco and HS level it really shrinks what you think is a pro prospect and not. 

So again plenty of D3 players could play at the lower levels of pro ball but filling roster spots is not the point, it is developing talent and tools to help the big club.

Whatever dude. I'm sure because some MLB team takes your calls and is willing to send you a check if they sign someone that you know it all and I know jack. But I know this...scouts miss players. A lot of them. And they get guys signed that are useless, but they can throw hard so they make some money off them. I knew several people when I lived down there that called themselves scouts -- legion coaches, clubhouse managers, could be anyone. Doesn't mean much to me other than have someone's phone number and they're willing to take your calls.

If teams did such a great job, they wouldn't run so through so many players and have so many picks early in the draft go bust. 1/3 in the first round never make the majors. Even 2nd round picks are only 50-50 shots to ever make the majors, in a 40 round draft! And there's not much difference between the 10th round and the 40th as far as likelihood goes.

That's just horrible efficiency. Not sure how you screw up the easiest part of your job 1/3 of the time.

narch

Quote from: LTHSdad on April 18, 2013, 09:05:09 AM
How about the following guys...any thoughts?
P - Austin Chrismon (CNU, Junior) - 6'3, 230 LBS (11 GS, 1.74 ERA, 3 CG, 78 INN, 86 K, .216 BAVG)
he's the only one...he has prototype size, good velocity, great numbers this year (K/9 and baa, in particular), and he has had exposure to very high level college baseball at ecu

perry went in the 17th last year (which kind of surprised me...i thought he'd be drafted very late or sign as a ufa) and proved that all it takes is one team to really like you and think they've got to snag you early to get drafted in the top 1/2 of the draft - i'll be surprised if chrismon lasts beyond the 20-25th round, even though his numbers aren't as good as perry's were last year (14 gs, 2.14 era, 4 cg, 92.2 ip, 132 k, .207 baa) and perry measured 6'2"/215

Spence

Quote from: 108 Stitches on April 18, 2013, 11:11:40 AM
Also if anyone has not read the piece in the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago about Velocity and pitchers should do so. Today 95 is the old reference of 90. Trinity for example has 6 kids that can touch 90, while that was a big deal a few years ago it is not so much anymore. They have one kid who has not pitched a lot of innings over his career there, but I can almost guarantee someone will draft him because he has hit 96 in the past and sits low 90's. IMO he is a player a pro team will use one of their picks for sine he will be a 15 rounder with low $ spent and has upside once he gets into an organization that can help him develop.

It's amazing how Trinity always has awesome everything but yet they can never seem to win a simple regional.

Every year it's the same...

PNeal7

Spence - I know Catfish from our communication on here (and seeing him at our games when I played at CNU) and I have also spoken with SEVERAL scouts through the Valley Baseball team I help manage/recruit. His comments are spot on with what scouts look for. They judge based on how a player projects at the MLB level, not how they play in college or how they would fare in Rookie Ball, Low A, High A, etc. College statistics certainly help paint the 'projection' picture, but they are not the main, or determining, factor. I'm sure players get missed along the way; after all, how many kids play baseball on any given year (millions). While pitchers can gain velocity from a mechanical adjustment or arm slot change, the majority of the time these adjustments are made to improve offspeed pitches or the ability to locate. An arm slot change is often made because a pitcher is getting hit from one slot, so they drop to another slot (see the majority of side arm pitchers).

I do agree with Catfish that you can't compare a D3 player with less a less than desirable number on the radar gun to Greg Maddux. That's just silly.

When comparing a kid in D3 who has spectactular numbers (see Kenny Moreland) versus a D1 pitcher who throws mid 90's but has a high era or walk total, the D1 kid is going to be drafted every time over the D3 kid. It's just the way the system works. If the D3 pitcher has size and projectability, that adds to his chances.

narch

Quote from: PNeal7 on April 18, 2013, 11:36:40 AMlook up Bruce Maxwell's numbers from last season, he was a 2nd Rd Pick by the A's
perhaps maxwell's most important numbers...6'3"/235 lefthanded catcher - if he's an OF or even a d3 corner infielder with those numbers, he doesn't get drafted nearly as high, in my opinion - if he's 6'0", 195 righthanded catcher with the same numbers, he probably doesn't go as high, either -
he projects (as catfish would say) because he is big, athletic, hits for power (from the left side), walks a lot (this is the A's we're talking about) and plays a position that not everyone can play

while spence may not like it, big league teams DO look at height/weight/speed combinations, in part because the data supports the fact that the guys who make it to the big leagues tend to be bigger, faster, stronger and harder throwers (for every greg maddux, there are a lot more like verlander, hernandez, weaver, etc. who blow you away with size and stuff)...when a scout who gets paid to project success at the big league level sees a 5'7" middle infielder who hits .330 in college, he realizes he's seen LOTS of them all over his region, but there aren't many in the bigs...when he sees a strapping 6'3" behemoth crushing balls all over the field who might hit .270...well, that guy stands out - doesn't mean he's necessarily a better player, but he PROJECTS to be a better player - while i agree with spence that scouts miss some players, the bottom line is that's the nature of the game...any time you are projecting something, you're bound to miss some times...

Spence

That's the thing...a lot of scouts don't get paid to watch players or for players making the majors (thought it might help their long-term prospects if they do)...they get paid when they get players signed by the club that they quasi-work for. It's basically commission in a lot of cases. Often times it's just something impressive looking to put on a business card. Never saw it in the north...was kind of funny how often I saw it in the south.

I don't see where Maddux being a great player disproves anything. What it disproves is the notion that you have to be big and throw hard. You don't have to be big to hit a baseball either. Of course there are a lot of Verlander/etc. types because that's what clubs are looking for. There are also a lot of guys that strike out a lot because clubs don't seem to care whether guys strike out or not anymore (even though year after year in the playoffs, the teams that bomb early are the high-K teams). There are probably a lot more Maddux types out there too that could be successful, but they never get the chance.

Funny thing about Maxwell is that since he's been a pro, he hasn't really hit for that much power. A D-III right-handed middle infielder (who should have been the national player of the year but wasn't) that went 20+ rounds later hit for more power. I wonder if any of the scouts that watched him ever saw him at home...saw how small their field is. But yes, being a lefty catcher obviously helps.

Just as obviously, a .330 hitter in D-III is not going to have much chance of being signed.

Spence

Quote from: PNeal7 on April 18, 2013, 02:33:41 PM
When comparing a kid in D3 who has spectactular numbers (see Kenny Moreland) versus a D1 pitcher who throws mid 90's but has a high era or walk total, the D1 kid is going to be drafted every time over the D3 kid. It's just the way the system works. If the D3 pitcher has size and projectability, that adds to his chances.

Not saying it's not how the system works. I'm saying the system doesn't work, not often enough. The high bust rate even among first and second rounders proves this.

PNeal7

With his size and numbers, I believe Maxwell would have beem drafted regardless of what position he plays. It also helps that he put up very strong numbers in a solid wood bat summer league. In 41 AB's so far this season, he is hitting .317 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 2B's, and 4 BB's. Narch is correct in that his patience at the plate was a big factor for the A's.

I think the system would haven plenty of busts regardless of what the system was due to the human element. Some players change with age, so change once they get some spending money (a la the beginning Josh Hamilton's career), etc.