NCAC--2014

Started by gobash83, March 03, 2014, 06:38:38 PM

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gobash83

#15
Overall, a pretty decent week for the NCAC.  On Wednesday, the conference went 4-1-1 against a non-conference slate with Allegheny beating Buffalo St. (1-0), Wooster beating W&J (2-1), DePauw beating Franklin (1-0), and Denison beating Ohio Northern (1-0).  Ohio Wesleyan tied Otterbein (1-1) and Hiram lost to John Carroll (2-3).  The conference remained successful on Thursday, with Kenyon beating Defiance (3-0), Oberlin beating Mount St. Joseph (5-1), and Wittenberg beating Transylvania (2-1).  A nice 7-1-1 streak for the weeknight games.

Saturday brought a mixed bag of non-conference results along with the first conference game of the season.  On the plus side, Oberlin beat Marietta (2-1), Wooster beat Geneva (5-0), and OWU tied Franciscan (1-1).  Denison and Allegheny both lost, with Centre beating the Big Red (0-1) and the Gators falling to Oneonta St (1-2).  While Allegheny has had success against the OAC (4-0-0), it has not done as well against teams from New York (1-3-0), the home state for each of the teams that have beaten them this season. 

Overall, this leaves the conference with a 32-29-3 record in non-conference play.  Against the "barometer" teams (Ohio Northern, CWRU, John Carroll, Centre, Thomas More, and W&J), the conference was 2-2 this week, leaving the conference record against that group at 4-13-0. 

In conference play, the Hiram vs. DePauw match was one of two halves.  DePauw had the better of the first half, scoring two goals while Hiram came back with two of its own in the second, including the equalizer with 2:02 remaining in regulation. 

Wooster tops the table with a 6-2 record, followed by Allegheny (6-3), Denison (5-3), Hiram (3-3-1). Kenyon (3-4-1), Oberlin (3-3), Wittenberg (3-3), DePauw (2-4-1) and Ohio Wesleyan (1-4-2).  With only one conference match played, Hiram and DePauw are tied (like their game) with 1 point each and the remaining schools are at zero.  That will change as conference play gets into full swing on September 27th, with the feature match being Allegheny traveling to Denison.




 
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

woacfan

Gobash I still see Allegheny as a favorite.  Oneonta is a quality side.  I watched both Wooster and the Gators and the Gators seemed a little better.  Any thoughts on any dark horses in the conference?
"We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right" - Brian Clough

gobash83

Denison drops a spot (from #3 to #4) and Allegheny goes up one (from #7 to #6) in the NSCAA Great Lakes Region Poll released today.  Wooster is listed in the "Also Receiving Votes" category as well.  No NCAC team earned votes in the D3soccer.com poll this week.

Woacfan, as of now, I am staying with my predictions that Allegheny is the favorite with Denison as a close second.  Oneonta is a quality team.  Centre is as well and do not knock Denison for losing to them. 

I am not sure yet about any "dark horses."  While Wooster has built a good record and are on the regional ranking radar, their 6 wins come from teams with a collective record of 9-33-1 and their 2 losses are from the only teams that they have played with winning records (and have a collective record of 9-5-1).  By comparison, Allegheny's 6 wins come from teams with a collective record of 18-20-4 and Denison's come from 5 teams with a collective record of 16-17-4.  Even more telling perhaps is that Allegheny's 3 losses come from teams with a collective record of 12-5-4 and Denison's 3 losses come from teams with a collective record of 21-1-1.  If anything, I believe that the competition for the 3 & 4 spots in the conference tournament has probably gotten tighter, with Hiram also showing potential to compete with Wooster, Witt, Kenyon and DePauw for those two spots.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

woacfan

Thanks Gobash.  I watched Wooster v. JCU tonight.  (I posted my thoughts on the OAC board.)  Wooster got a little unlucky tonight.  Looking forward to keeping an eye on them and the Gators as they move into conference play!
"We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right" - Brian Clough

gobash83

With a full slate of conference play tomorrow, I will take a shot at predicting outcomes (and risk the ridicule that goes with prognostication):

Allegheny at Denison--The premier match of the day and perhaps the season.  Both teams have played strong non-conference schedules and fared well.  I think Allegheny wins this by a goal, but wouldn't be shocked if it goes the other way.

Kenyon at DePauw--Last year, these two teams played a double OT thriller that DePauw won in the 104th minute.  With both sides having many of the same key players back, I would expect another close one.  The one difference is that it is likely that the Tiger's starting 'keeper will not play after a serious injury last week at Hiram.  I think Kenyon wins this one by a goal.

OWU at Wooster--The Scots should control this match and come away with a decisive victory over the Battling Bishops, likely by 2 goals or perhaps even 3.

Wittenberg at Oberlin--I think this match may be closer that you'd expect.  In the end, I think the Tigers prevail by a goal but a tie wouldn't surprise me.

In the one non-conference match (remember that the conference only has 9 women's programs), Hiram takes on Heidelberg.  I like the Terriers in this one by 2 goals as they are playing some strong soccer recently.

Hope everyone has good weather and safe play.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Another up and down week for the NCAC in non-conference play and an interesting start to the conference race on Saturday.

Oberlin and Hiram opened the week with wins, the Yeowomen defeating Defiance 1-0 and Hiram besting Marietta by the same score.  The next day, Witt tied Ohio Northern 2-2 and John Carroll beat Wooster 0-2.  Wednesday had the conference going 3-2-0, with Oberlin (defeating Muskingum 1-0), Allegheny (over Pitt-Bradford 4-0) and Denison (beating Earlham 7-0) all winning and losses by Kenyon (losing to Otterbein 1-2) and Ohio Wesleyan (defeated by Wilmington 1-3).  Thursday had Hiram beating Bethany 2-0. 

Saturday had a full conference schedule.  Allegheny beat Denison 1-0 on a goal in the 63rd minute in what appeared to be a match of two halves, with Denison controlling play in the first (though not capitalizing) while Allegheny was able to control more of the pace in the second to win.  Oberlin beat Wittenberg 2-1 in OT, with Oberlin getting the game-winner in the 104th minute.  Kenyon beat DePauw 1-0 on a goal in the 5th minute in what then played out to be a fairly even match.  Wooster beat Ohio Wesleyan 1-0 on a PK in the 67th minute in a much closer match that expected. And, in the sole non-conference slate, Hiram lost to Heidelberg 1-2.

I picked Allegheny and Kenyon right on the nose, was right about Wooster winning (though I failed to give OWU enough credit), and missed on Oberlin (or Witt) and Hiram.   

The conference is now 37-34-4 in non-conference play.  Against the "barometer" teams (Ohio Northern, CWRU, John Carroll, Centre, Thomas More, and W&J), the conference is now 4-13-1.

Overall, Allegheny tops the list with a 8-3 record, followed by Wooster (7-3), Oberlin (6-3) Denison (6-4), Hiram (5-4-1). Kenyon (4-5-1), Wittenberg (3-4-1), DePauw (2-5-1) and Ohio Wesleyan (1-6-2).  In the conference, Allegheny, Wooster, Oberlin and Kenyon are tied at 1-0-0, Hiram (0-0-1) and DePauw are tied with 1 point each (0-1-1) and the remaining schools (Denison, Witt, and OWU) are at 0-1-0. 

In conference play next week, OWU visits Witt on Friday while Denison travels to Hiram, Allegheny goes to Kenyon, and Wooster makes the trek to DePauw on Saturday.   
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

As the weekend is upon us (I may be early but since OWU visits Witt on Friday, it is closer than one thinks), I will give another shot at prognostication for the conference matches this weekend:

OWU at Witt: Still not sure what to make of Wittenberg.  I had them pegged in the hunt for a conference tournament spot but am starting to have some doubts.  The match today against OWU may tell us more.  I see this one as a 2-0 win by Witt but won't be too surprised by a closer win or tie.

Denison at Hiram: This is a chance for Denison to make up some ground in the conference race while Hiram can make its bid for a tournament spot.  I see this one as fairly wide open, with Denison winning 3-2.

Allegheny at Kenyon: I still see Allegheny as the class of the conference and believe they win on Saturday.  Kenyon has two goal scorers and I think they will get something on the board.  I pick this one to be 2-1 for the Gators.

Wooster at DePauw: While Wooster struggled a bit more with OWU than I expected, it did find a way to prevail.  I think Wooster is number 3 in the conference now and should prevail over the Indiana Tigers.  Other than its opening game, the DePauw defense has been respectable, so I put this one at 1-0 for the Scots.

Good luck to everyone and here is hoping for safe and entertaining play at all venues.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

An interesting Saturday in conference play ended a mixed week for the NCAC.

Allegheny and Denison came into the week as #4 and #6 respectively in the NSCAA Great Lakes Region Poll, though neither received votes in the d3Soccer poll. 

Three conference teams faced non-conference opponents on Tuesday, with Witt posting a 2-0 victory over Manchester and Oberlin beating St. Vincent 1-0 while OWU lost to Capital 1-2.  Wednesday saw Otterbein beating Hiram 0-2 and Thursday brought an Oberlin victory (3-1 over Baldwin-Wallace) and a Kenyon loss (0-1 to Case Western).

Conference play opened Friday, with Wittenberg dominating OWU 5-0. The Tigers got ahead early and lead 3-0 at the half.   

Saturday brought some interesting results, with Kenyon defeating Allegheny 3-2.  Like last week against DePauw, Kenyon got on the board early with a goal in the second minute.  Allegheny tied it in the 11th minute and the game went to half 1-1.  Early in the second half (48th minute), Kenyon took the lead again and carried it to the 79th minute when Allegheny evened the score.  It remained 2-2 through regulation and OT until Kenyon scored the winner in the 106th minute.

Denison got its first conference win, defeating Hiram 1-0.  The Big Red dominated the game, outpacing Hiram in shots (33-7) and shots on goal (16-2), yet it wasn't until the 70th minute that Denison was able to put one in the net.

The last game of the day was Wooster and DePauw, which tied at 0-0.  A game of two halves, with DePauw in control the first half and the Wooster in the second.  While DePauw picked it back up in the OT periods, neither team were able to score.

The picks didn't fare as well this week.  I did select the correct result in picking Witt over OWU and Denison over Hiram, though I underestimated Witt and underestimated the defenses of both Denison and Hiram.  Kenyon and DePauw proved me wrong.   

The conference is now 40-37-4 in non-conference play.  Against the "barometer" teams (Ohio Northern, CWRU, John Carroll, Centre, Thomas More, and W&J), the conference is now 4-14-1.

As we have some conference games under everyone's belt, I will start to show the standings based on conference play.  Kenyon is at the top of the table with a 2-0-0 (5-6-1) record.  Wooster follows at 1-0-1 (7-3-1), then Oberlin 1-0-0 (8-3), Allegheny 1-1-0 (8-4), Denison 1-1-0 (7-4) and Witt 1-1-0 (5-4-1).  DePauw holds the next spot with a 0-1-2 (2-5-2) record, with Hiram 0-1-1 (5-6-1) and OWU 0-2-0 (1-8-2) closing out the table.   

Next week, Hiram opens conference play with a Friday night match at Oberlin.  Saturday brings Wooster to Kenyon, DePauw visiting OWU and Witt at Denison. 
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Busy with the day job this week, but I wanted to get my predictions on record for the conference matches this weekend:


Hiram at Oberlin: I think this will be a competitive match and I like the home team by a goal. I see Oberlin winning 2-1. 

Wooster at Kenyon: Kenyon is playing well and the Ladies win this one 2-0.

DePauw at OWU: The Tigers get their first conference win, defeating OWU 2-0.

Witt at Denison: I see this one as close and low scoring, and pick Denison to win 1-0. 
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

A quiet week for the NCAC, with just three non-conference games during the week and one round of conference matches on the weekend.

The conference did not fare well in non-conference play, with Allegheny losing in OT to Fredonia St. 1-2, Wooster losing to CWRU 0-2, and DePauw losing to Illinois Wesleyan 0-3.  The conference is now 40-40-4 in non-conference play.  Against the "barometer" teams (Ohio Northern, CWRU, John Carroll, Centre, Thomas More, and W&J), the conference is now 4-15-1.

In conference play, there were a lot of high scoring and exciting matches.  It kicked off on Friday, with Oberlin beating Hiram 2-1 in double overtime.  On Saturday, Kenyon remained undefeated in the conference with a 4-3 win over Wooster.  DePauw traveled to OWU and came away with a 3-2 win and Denison beat Wittenberg 4-2.   

As things now stand, Kenyon is at the top of the table with a 3-0-0 (6-6-1) record.  Oberlin is second at 2-0-0 (9-3-0), then Denison 2-1-0 (8-4), DePauw 1-1-2 (3-6-2), Wooster 1-1-1 (7-5-1), Allegheny 1-1-0 (8-5), Witt 1-2-0 (5-5-1), Hiram 0-2-1 (5-7-1) and OWU 0-3-0 (1-9-2) closing out the table.   

In my picks, I got all the results correct, picking Oberlin, Kenyon, DePauw, and Denison as winners.  I also picked the score of the Oberlin match correctly, but missed on how high scoring and competitive the other matches would be.

Next week is all conference play and presents some interesting matchups.  On Tuesday, Oberlin travels to Allegheny, Kenyon visits Denison, and Hiram is at Wooster.  I think Oberlin's 9 win streak comes to an end with Allegheny prevailing 2-0.  Kenyon has staked out a solid position in the league but in a close match, I see Denison winning at home 3-2.  Wooster should handle Hiram 2-0. 

On Saturday, Allegheny hosts OWU, Wooster has Denison at home, Oberlin entertains DePauw, and Hiram visits Wittenberg.  I pick the Gators over the Battling Bishops 3-0, the Scots losing to the Big Red 1-3, the Tigers from Indiana beating the Yeowomen 2-1, and the Terriers losing to the Tigers from Ohio 1-2.   

Here's hoping for a good week of soccer.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

It was an interesting evening yesterday in the NCAC as Kenyon took a big step in cementing its place in the conference tournament and as a possible #1 seed.  Senior Becca Romaine scored for the Ladies in the 66 minute to lead Kenyon to a 1-0 victory over host Denison. This puts Kenyon at the top of the conference with a 4-0-0 record and victories over Allegheny, Denison, Wooster and DePauw.  In other action, Allegheny beat Oberlin 2-0 while Wooster prevailed over Hiram 2-0 as well. 

In my picks for Tuesday, I was spot on when it came to the Allegheny and Wooster wins and scores, but missed the boat completely when it came to Kenyon.

In the conference standings after Kenyon, Wooster is second at 2-1-1 (8-5-1), then Oberlin 2-1-0 (9-4-0), Allegheny 2-1-0 (9-5-0), Denison 2-2-0 (8-5), DePauw 1-1-2 (3-6-2), Wittenberg 1-2-0 (5-5-1), Hiram 0-3-1 (5-8-1) and OWU 0-3-0 (1-9-2).  Saturday's slate has OWU at Allegheny, Denison visiting Wooster, Oberlin entertaining DePauw, and Wittenberg hosting Hiram.

Yesterday's regional rankings have Denison at #5, Oberlin at #10 and Allegheny OVR and no conference teams making the Top 25 in the national polls.  At this point in the season, I suspect that the NCAC may be a one bid conference in this year's NCAA tournament.     

Hope we have a competitive and safe Saturday in conference play!

"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

#26
Yesterday, Allegheny had its way with OWU (5-0), Denison beat Wooster (1-0), DePauw picked up a road win over Oberlin (2-0) and Wittenberg handling Hiram (4-1). While I picked the winners correctly, I underestimated the Gators and Ohio Tigers offensive prowess and the defense of the Scots and Indiana Tigers.   

Kenyon stands at the top of the conference at 4-0 (7-6-1) with Allegheny 3-1-0 (10-5-0), Denison 3-2-0 (9-5), and DePauw 2-1-2 (4-6-2) rounding out the top 4.  Wooster 2-2-1 (8-6-1), Oberlin 2-2-0 (9-5-0), Wittenberg 2-2-0 (6-5-1), Hiram 0-4-1 (5-9-1) and OWU 0-4-0 (1-10-2) are on the outside looking in. 

This week brings almost all conference matches.  On Tuesday Wednesday, Denison is at OWU, Kenyon visits Wittenberg, Wooster travels to Oberlin, and Hiram hosts Allegheny.  On Saturday, Allegheny travels across the conference footprint to face DePauw, Wittenberg plays Wooster, Hiram is at Kenyon, Oberlin visits OWU, and, in the sole non-conference match this week, Denison hosts Case.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Congrats to Denison (#7), Kenyon (#8) and Allegheny (#10) for making the NSCAA Great Lakes rankings this week.  The first NCAA Regional Ranking comes out tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how the NCAC fares.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Yesterday's matches brought Kenyon back to the group with a 0-1 loss to Wittenberg while Allegheny and Denison tied with the Ladies in points as a result of wins over Hiram (1-0) and OWU (6-0) respectively.  In yesterday's remaining match, Wooster beat Oberlin 2-0.  As a result, Kenyon (4-1-0), Allegheny (4-1-0), and Denison (4-2-0) are all tied with 12 points, though Kenyon and Allegheny both have a game in hand.  Wooster is next with 10 points (3-2-1), then Wittenberg with 9 (3-2-0), DePauw with 8 (2-1-2), Oberlin with 6 (2-3-0), Hiram with 1 (0-5-1) and OWU with 0 (0-5).  I didn't make picks for the Tuesday matches, but let me say that the only result that surprised me was Kenyon's loss.  Good job by the Ohio Tigers in knocking off the conference leader.

Saturday has Allegheny at DePauw, Wittenberg visiting Wooster, Kenyon hosting Hiram, Oberlin at OWU, and, in the sole non-conference match this week, Denison hosting Case.  I have a feeling that the Indiana Tigers may pull it out 2-1, while Wittenberg beats Wooster 1-0, Kenyon wins 2-0, and Oberlin gets a win 2-1.  I think Case proves to be too much for the Big Red and wins 2-0. 

Here is to a good Saturday of safe, competitive soccer.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

SoccerLAN

The Case/DU game was perseverance paying off. The 1-0 losses to Centre, Allegheny, and Kenyon, suffered by DU were fodder for Saturday's win. DU has been a formidable contender in each of these derbies but struggles with finding the back of the net. The conviction in the win my be timely as their momentum is building heading into the conference finals.