South Region Rankings and Playoffs

Started by Ralph Turner, February 01, 2009, 04:08:59 PM

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Ron Boerger

#135
A night after having to go to OT to defeat TLU (after TLU missed a 1-and-1 opportunity with under 30 seconds left), Austin lost at Southwestern so now probably have to win the SCAC tournament to get into the NCAAs.  The same may be true for Trinity - I don't think their resume can take another loss and still qualify for a pool C, especially should Austin lose another game and likely drop out of the regional rankings at that point.

Besides Austin, Emory unexpectedly picked up a loss at CWRU.  Everyone else won their game(s) last week.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Austin is on the outside looking in, in my opinion.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

jekelish

With two losses to Southwestern, I think I agree. The other three losses are "good" losses (Millsaps, Trinity, UMHB) but those two will haunt them.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Ron Boerger

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 20, 2019, 03:02:42 PM
The new NCAA Division III women's basketball regional rankings are posted: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-third

   South       
1   Mary Hardin-Baylor   22-2   23-2
2   Emory & Henry   22-3   22-3
3   Texas-Dallas   21-4   21-4
4   Oglethorpe   20-5   20-5
5   Emory   18-6   18-6
6   Trinity (Texas)   19-4   21-4
7   Austin   18-5   20-5
8   Millsaps   21-4   21-4
9   Guilford   20-5   20-5

Oglethorpe beats a nobody in their only game and goes from 9th to 4th despite being 0-2 on the season against Millsaps. 
Emory and Austin stay the same despite losing a game relative to Trinity who didn't.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Come on, Ron, you know there is more going on than a single result for a single team. There are changes to the SOS, other teams winning or losing, vRRO data constantly changing, teams of that vRRO moving up and down themselves last week, etc.

While Millsaps may have beaten Oglethorpe twice, the Majors have a .477 SOS(!) and Oglethorpe has a .553! That alone can make the comparison between the two heavily favor Oglethorpe despite Millsaps' results.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Ron Boerger

Millsaps .840, .750 vs RRO (3-1), .477 SOS
Oglethorpe .800, .429 vs RRO (3-4), .553 SOS

Yes, better SOS.  Also much worse vs. RROs, so they lost to four of the teams that are raising their SOS so much.   Woo. 

Pat Coleman

Quote from: Ron Boerger on February 21, 2019, 03:27:01 PM
Millsaps .840, .750 vs RRO (3-1), .477 SOS
Oglethorpe .800, .429 vs RRO (3-4), .553 SOS

Yes, better SOS.  Also much worse vs. RROs, so they lost to four of the teams that are raising their SOS so much.   Woo.

Break down those RRO results more -- that's what the committee does.
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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: Ron Boerger on February 21, 2019, 03:27:01 PM
Millsaps .840, .750 vs RRO (3-1), .477 SOS
Oglethorpe .800, .429 vs RRO (3-4), .553 SOS

Yes, better SOS.  Also much worse vs. RROs, so they lost to four of the teams that are raising their SOS so much.   Woo.

Much worse vRRO? It isn't a percentage number. It is never represented as a WL% - get that out of your head. It won't help. It is a "who did they play, where where they ranked, etc." type of data point.

Millsaps played, so far, four games for vRRO data. They are (Week 2 rankings) #6 Austin (L 77-59 home; W 70-61 away), #8 Ogelthorpe (W 66-57 home; W 56-54 away). So, just two teams which they split with one and swept the other (that last one also used for head-to-head).

Oglethorpe has played, so far, seven  games for vRRO data. They are (Week 2 rankings) #4 Emory (W 71-64 OT away), #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor (L 79-64 neutral), #9 Rose-Hulman (W 70-56 neutral), #4 Hope (L 64-46 home), #9 Guilford (W 47-42 home), #7 Millsaps (L 66-57 away; L 56-54 home). That's SIX different opponents and just one played twice.

Now, I'm not sure if the committee would do this, but I could see it discussed: they already considered the head-to-head which gives Millsaps the advantage (two game sweep). Remove that from the vRRO conversation since it is repetitive and now Millsaps is 1-1 and Oglethorpe is 3-2.

All the other data considered, Millsaps has ONE category they excel at over Oglethorpe - head to head wins - and one they have a small advantage, WL%. Oglethorpe has a better SOS number (by a ridiculously large margin), their vRRO data is better (more diversity, better results). I am quite confident that if they went to secondary criteria, Oglethorpe would also have a better non-conference SOS (based on who they have played and Millsaps has not played - or played twice).

I still can't see Millsaps ahead of Oglethorpe and the primary criteria is giving me that realization.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Clarification - I checked with the national committee. They don't want to "double-punish/reward" a team on criteria (i.e. head-to-head and vRRO data being the same data), BUT they do not necessarily "remove" the head-to-head in a vRRO scenario and change the data.

I just wanted to be clear about that.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Ralph Turner

ASC Semifinals

UT-D  75  HSU  64
UMHB 62 ETBU 60  (ETBU finishes 23-4; 2 losses to UT-Dallas and to UMHB each)

Caz Bombers

I suspect ETBU fans are going to be the most Mad Online on D3Hoops social media when the bracket comes out. #16 in the poll this week but not in the regional rankings and barring something completely unforeseen, not going to be in the NCAA Tournament.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: Caz Bombers on February 22, 2019, 11:12:43 PM
I suspect ETBU fans are going to be the most Mad Online on D3Hoops social media when the bracket comes out. #16 in the poll this week but not in the regional rankings and barring something completely unforeseen, not going to be in the NCAA Tournament.

No ... they won't be in the NCAA Tournament.

And they shouldn't be attacking our social media account. We don't make the decisions.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Ralph Turner

ETBU had a weak non-conference schedule. The trip to Colorado Springs for Colorado College and JWU-Denver was not productive from a regional rankings perspective.

I am not sure why there was not a game between ETBU and either Trinity and Austin College.

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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.