FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

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wally_wabash

Quote from: TheGreenKnight920 on November 11, 2018, 06:55:28 PM
Quote from: BayernFan on November 11, 2018, 05:42:32 PM
So "SOS" is more important than actual records vs. RRO.  Good to know.  ::)

Its all about "quality losses"

Just to clear this up, Muhlenberg was the last team in and Muhlenberg did end with 1-1 record vs. RROs per the NCAA's regional data sheets.  So, no, Wabash didn't get passed over in favor of a team that only had a "quality loss" and didn't beat anybody that was ranked. 

Quote from: old wabash on November 13, 2018, 08:20:30 AM
interesting poll on d3 front page! once again on the bubble (but not chosen)! does Bash or NCAC get a fair shake, or not? i am interested in opinions of other posters! what do you think? have we been included when on the bubble...or always excluded? or is it a blessing that THIS season is over?

Wabash has been selected as an at-large team a couple of times (2009, 2014) and has been just out a couple of times (2010, 2013).  Getting in through Pool C is a little bit like winning the lottery.  When you schedule your out of conference games, you have no idea if that team is going to post a good record three or four years later when you actually play.  You don't know what the makeup of the regional or national committee is going to be and so you can't know which criteria are going to help most.  And you don't know how the rest of the region is going to do.  Sometimes 8-2 can be good enough to get in when the region chews itself up (see ONU in 2015).  And sometimes 9-1 isn't good enough to even get a look (see  Wittenberg 2018).  So it's not really whether or not the NCAC or Wabash is getting a fair shake.  I think they are getting as fair a chance to get selected as anybody else.  Our friends in the CCIW would probably argue, with some legitimacy, that they're being given more than a fair chance. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wabndy

#34711
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 08:58:21 AM
When you schedule your out of conference games, you have no idea if that team is going to post a good record three or four years later when you actually play. 


UWSP went 4-6 this year and previously went 6-4, 5-5, 7-3, 5-5, 2-8, and 4-6. UWSP has never been a real playoff threat.  In previous years Wabash has scheduled Albion (4-6 and 1-9), Hampden Sydney (6-4, 7-3), and Hanover (5-5, 6-4).

With a full round robin 9 game conference schedule, our SOS is always going to be heavily weighted toward the middle. For whatever reason we have not chosen to or been able to schedule teams that make frequent appearances in the second or third round. Muhlenberg scheduled Thomas More as its non-conference opponent this year who went 7-3 and has made frequent playoff appearances.

The point is that while I agree with Wally that we can't always know the record of a future non-conference opponent, we are not scheduling teams that we can reasonably expect to go 8-2 and give us any kind of leg up with SOS. As for the OOWP factor, by my count it looks like NCAC nonconference opponents this year went 47-42, which is frankly a better record than I thought it'd be. However, unless we are willing and able to schedule teams that are consistently regionally ranked, our chances in Pool C will remain slim. There is a solution involving a team an hour away from Crawfordsville that is usually regionally ranked and almost always has an 8 win season. Perhaps we should swallow our pride and just schedule Franklin.

Taking my homer hat off - I'd really have to make an honest argument that Illinois Wesleyan deserved to be ranked higher than Wabash or Wittenberg in the north region. I think its academic since as a two loss team they still would not have gotten in over Muhlenberg. But as a .555 SOS number with a 1-2 RRO record, the committee could have easily justified putting Wabash and Witt behind IWU.



wally_wabash

Quote from: wabndy on November 14, 2018, 10:33:00 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 08:58:21 AM
When you schedule your out of conference games, you have no idea if that team is going to post a good record three or four years later when you actually play. 


UWSP went 4-6 this year and previously went 6-4, 5-5, 7-3, 5-5, 2-8, and 4-6. UWSP has never been a real playoff threat.  In previous years Wabash has scheduled Albion (4-6 and 1-9), Hampden Sydney (6-4, 7-3), and Hanover (5-5, 6-4). With a full round robin 9 game conference schedule, our SOS is always going to be heavily weighted toward the middle. For whatever reason we have not chosen to or been able to schedule teams that make frequent appearances in the second or third round. [/size]Muhlenberg scheduled Thomas More as its non-conference opponent this year who went 7-3 and has made frequent playoff appearances.
[/size]
[/size]The point is that while I agree with Wally that we can't always know the record of a future non-conference opponent, we are not scheduling teams that we can reasonably expect to go 8-2 and give us any kind of leg up with SOS. As for the OOWP factor, by my count it looks like NCAC nonconference opponents this year went [/size]47-42, which is frankly a better record than I thought it'd be. However, unless we are willing and able to schedule teams that are consistently regionally ranked, our chances in Pool C will remain slim. There is a solution involving a team an hour away from Crawfordsville that is usually regionally ranked and almost always has an 8 win season. Perhaps we should swallow our pride and just schedule Franklin.


Taking my homer hat off - I'd really have to make an honest argument that Illinois Wesleyan deserved to be ranked higher than Wabash or Wittenberg in the north region. I think its academic since as a two loss team they still would not have gotten in over Muhlenberg. But as a .555 SOS number with a 1-2 RRO record, the committee could have easily justified putting Wabash and Witt behind IWU.

Albion and Hampden-Sydney are great examples of what I'm talking about.  The season before Wabash began its home and home with Albion, the Britons were a 9-win playoff team (actually eliminated by Wabash in the first round of the 2015 playoffs...memorable for Mason Zurek's single game rushing record and this piece of absolute brilliance by Connor Ludwig:

)

And then piped in a 1-9 the following season in one of the largest possible season-to-season freefalls imaginable.  Hampden-Sydney was a playoff team in 2013 going in to the Gentlemen's Classic series and returned an All-American QB and WR from a team that seriously challenged Linfield in the 2013 playoffs.  Those teams, particularly the 2014 H-SC team underperformed.  That didn't cost Wabash a playoff spot in 2014, but what should have been a win against a ranked opponent wasn't because H-SC can't figure out how to beat their rival. 

And then UWSP is tricky.  In a different conference, UWSP is better than 4-6.  When you schedule up there, you're going to get a tough, physical challenge that is probably good for your team, but you're also going to get a team that may well get chewed up by the quality throughout the conference and not be much help to your SOS.  Unfortunately, SOS only counts wins and losses in a vacuum and doesn't care what league your opponent played in.  That's the breaks.  As you know, this has been an ongoing topic for a long time and for as much thought as I've put into it, I don't know how to deal with the SOS thing in a way that doesn't introduce more subjectivity than most people are comfortable with. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

sigma one

#34713
You beat me to it, Wally, with Albion, Hampden-Sydney, and UWStevens Point.  For Wabash, as for many others, scheduling out of conference is a real challenge.  Only one OOC game a year at present.  Wabash has a tradition of scheduling teams that they expect to be competitive.  Going back to when Wabash joined the NCAC, their OOC games have been vs. Manchester, Wheaton, Kalamazoo, Huntingdon, Franklin, Chicago, Millikan, Washington U., Carnegie Mellon, Hanover, Hampden-Sydney, Albion, UWStevens Point.
     If you look at these teams, it happens that some of them had down years at just about the time their game vs. Wabash took place.  But thinking generally these teams have been a fair challenge.  Minus Hanover (which was going downward, but had been really good), Humtingdon (they were in their first year when scheduled), and Manchester (played as a leftover from the old Indiana conference) the OOC games have been against respectable opponents.  Wabash lost to Wheaton, Kalamazoo (in 2003 after Wabash's 12-1, Final-8 season of 2002), Franklin (in OT), and Washington U. (in a significant upset in St. Louis).   
     As Wally and others point out time and again, there's nothing to be done about the conference schedule.  Wabash has made attempts to schedule out of conference games that are against teams with respectable academic profiles.  Scheduling isn't as easy as fans seem to think.  It's a two-way street; you can't just pick and choose.  Recent opponents Albion and Stevens Point have been either 1) Albion:  when the game was scheduled they were as good as they've been in a while (and the reopening of an old rivalry from the 1990s), and 2) Stevens Point, a middle of the pack team in arguably the toughest conference in the country.  DIII football predicted UWSP to be 1-9 this year; they finished 4-6, and beat Oshkosh.
     This year, in my opinion Wabash did not deserve to be in the playoffs.   The big loss to Denison doomed them when the committee took a careful look--that and of course the SOS.  IWU had a better profile.  So did a couple of others.  I'm happy to see the team finish 9-1, keep the Bell, beat Wittenberg, and go out with heavy hearts but with heads held high.           

wabashcpa

Any chance of eliminating the full round robin conference slate?  It does determine a worthy conference champion but all but eliminates the runner-up(s) from at-large consideraton.  A 7 game conference schedule with 3 non-con would be pretty interesting (and probably a scheduling nightmare, I know). 

And simple eye test confirms that this year's team was not playoff caliber, at least not at the level of prior Wabash teams that went dancing.  Hopefully we can up our game recruiting and get back to that level.

wally_wabash

Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
Any chance of eliminating the full round robin conference slate?  It does determine a worthy conference champion but all but eliminates the runner-up(s) from at-large consideraton.  A 7 game conference schedule with 3 non-con would be pretty interesting (and probably a scheduling nightmare, I know)

That's the whole thing, right there.  I was an early opponent of the full round robin, but the nightmare that has becoming out of conference scheduling is something that should be avoided at all costs.  Denison- not a team that you would think has a hard time scheduling one little OOC game- had to sign up for a home and home with a school in Texas to complete their schedule.  Denison has still has an open date listed for next year.  Wabash is going up to Stevens Point next year.  I don't think that's a first option for Wabash, but at some point you need to pair off with whoever might say yes before you find yourself having to play club teams in Georgia. 

Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
And simple eye test confirms that this year's team was not playoff caliber, at least not at the level of prior Wabash teams that went dancing.  Hopefully we can up our game recruiting and get back to that level.

I do appreciate the thoughts about Wabash ending 2018 on a high note...but I kinda would have liked to see this team, playing the way are now, get a shot in this field.  There's a confidence and a looseness that has come over the team over the last few weeks.  I don't know...maybe could have surprised some people and won a game. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 04:09:52 PM
Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
Any chance of eliminating the full round robin conference slate?  It does determine a worthy conference champion but all but eliminates the runner-up(s) from at-large consideraton.  A 7 game conference schedule with 3 non-con would be pretty interesting (and probably a scheduling nightmare, I know)

That's the whole thing, right there.  I was an early opponent of the full round robin, but the nightmare that has becoming out of conference scheduling is something that should be avoided at all costs.  Denison- not a team that you would think has a hard time scheduling one little OOC game- had to sign up for a home and home with a school in Texas to complete their schedule.  Denison has still has an open date listed for next year.  Wabash is going up to Stevens Point next year.  I don't think that's a first option for Wabash, but at some point you need to pair off with whoever might say yes before you find yourself having to play club teams in Georgia. 

Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
And simple eye test confirms that this year's team was not playoff caliber, at least not at the level of prior Wabash teams that went dancing.  Hopefully we can up our game recruiting and get back to that level.

I do appreciate the thoughts about Wabash ending 2018 on a high note...but I kinda would have liked to see this team, playing the way are now, get a shot in this field.  There's a confidence and a looseness that has come over the team over the last few weeks. I don't know...maybe could have surprised some people and won a game.
[/b]

Highly unlikely.  Since Denison is getting sent to Alliance, if Wabash had been picked you could probably sub Wabash for Denison as the sacrificial lamb! ;)
Quote from: wabndy on November 14, 2018, 10:33:00 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 08:58:21 AM
When you schedule your out of conference games, you have no idea if that team is going to post a good record three or four years later when you actually play. 


UWSP went 4-6 this year and previously went 6-4, 5-5, 7-3, 5-5, 2-8, and 4-6. UWSP has never been a real playoff threat.  In previous years Wabash has scheduled Albion (4-6 and 1-9), Hampden Sydney (6-4, 7-3), and Hanover (5-5, 6-4).

With a full round robin 9 game conference schedule, our SOS is always going to be heavily weighted toward the middle. For whatever reason we have not chosen to or been able to schedule teams that make frequent appearances in the second or third round. Muhlenberg scheduled Thomas More as its non-conference opponent this year who went 7-3 and has made frequent playoff appearances.

The point is that while I agree with Wally that we can't always know the record of a future non-conference opponent, we are not scheduling teams that we can reasonably expect to go 8-2 and give us any kind of leg up with SOS. As for the OOWP factor, by my count it looks like NCAC nonconference opponents this year went 47-42, which is frankly a better record than I thought it'd be. However, unless we are willing and able to schedule teams that are consistently regionally ranked, our chances in Pool C will remain slim. There is a solution involving a team an hour away from Crawfordsville that is usually regionally ranked and almost always has an 8 win season. Perhaps we should swallow our pride and just schedule Franklin.

Taking my homer hat off - I'd really have to make an honest argument that Illinois Wesleyan deserved to be ranked higher than Wabash or Wittenberg in the north region. I think its academic since as a two loss team they still would not have gotten in over Muhlenberg. But as a .555 SOS number with a 1-2 RRO record, the committee could have easily justified putting Wabash and Witt behind IWU.




Just caught this post.  As I rabid Titan fan, I thank you for your support.  One minor correction, they were 2-2 vs. RRO, as WashU entered the final rankings.  While I agree that IWU would probably not have beaten out Muhlenberg, the North RAC really screwed us (and Wheaton) from even being considered by having teams with roughly .500 SoS blocking access to the table.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 14, 2018, 04:27:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 04:09:52 PM
Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
Any chance of eliminating the full round robin conference slate?  It does determine a worthy conference champion but all but eliminates the runner-up(s) from at-large consideraton.  A 7 game conference schedule with 3 non-con would be pretty interesting (and probably a scheduling nightmare, I know)

That's the whole thing, right there.  I was an early opponent of the full round robin, but the nightmare that has becoming out of conference scheduling is something that should be avoided at all costs.  Denison- not a team that you would think has a hard time scheduling one little OOC game- had to sign up for a home and home with a school in Texas to complete their schedule.  Denison has still has an open date listed for next year.  Wabash is going up to Stevens Point next year.  I don't think that's a first option for Wabash, but at some point you need to pair off with whoever might say yes before you find yourself having to play club teams in Georgia. 

Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
And simple eye test confirms that this year's team was not playoff caliber, at least not at the level of prior Wabash teams that went dancing.  Hopefully we can up our game recruiting and get back to that level.

I do appreciate the thoughts about Wabash ending 2018 on a high note...but I kinda would have liked to see this team, playing the way are now, get a shot in this field.  There's a confidence and a looseness that has come over the team over the last few weeks. I don't know...maybe could have surprised some people and won a game.
[/b]

Highly unlikely.  Since Denison is getting sent to Alliance, if Wabash had been picked you could probably sub Wabash for Denison as the sacrificial lamb! ;)

I don't think so.  Wabash (5) was ranked higher than Denison (not at all), so there's little chance Wabash would have wound up in Alliance.  Probably closer to the Trine/St. Norbert type of area on the bracket. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bluestreak66

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 04:41:46 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 14, 2018, 04:27:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 04:09:52 PM
Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
Any chance of eliminating the full round robin conference slate?  It does determine a worthy conference champion but all but eliminates the runner-up(s) from at-large consideraton.  A 7 game conference schedule with 3 non-con would be pretty interesting (and probably a scheduling nightmare, I know)

That's the whole thing, right there.  I was an early opponent of the full round robin, but the nightmare that has becoming out of conference scheduling is something that should be avoided at all costs.  Denison- not a team that you would think has a hard time scheduling one little OOC game- had to sign up for a home and home with a school in Texas to complete their schedule.  Denison has still has an open date listed for next year.  Wabash is going up to Stevens Point next year.  I don't think that's a first option for Wabash, but at some point you need to pair off with whoever might say yes before you find yourself having to play club teams in Georgia. 

Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
And simple eye test confirms that this year's team was not playoff caliber, at least not at the level of prior Wabash teams that went dancing.  Hopefully we can up our game recruiting and get back to that level.

I do appreciate the thoughts about Wabash ending 2018 on a high note...but I kinda would have liked to see this team, playing the way are now, get a shot in this field.  There's a confidence and a looseness that has come over the team over the last few weeks. I don't know...maybe could have surprised some people and won a game.
[/b]

Highly unlikely.  Since Denison is getting sent to Alliance, if Wabash had been picked you could probably sub Wabash for Denison as the sacrificial lamb! ;)

I don't think so.  Wabash (5) was ranked higher than Denison (not at all), so there's little chance Wabash would have wound up in Alliance.  Probably closer to the Trine/St. Norbert type of area on the bracket.
I think likely, Wabash would have gone to Trine, St. Norbert to North Central, and Hanover to Mount. The rest would have remained the same
A.M.D.G.
Whose House? STREAKS' HOUSE!

RIP MUC57- "Go everybody!"

2018 CCIW PICK EM'S CHAMPION
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Li'l Giant

Quote from: sigma one on November 14, 2018, 11:51:15 AM
     This year, in my opinion Wabash did not deserve to be in the playoffs.   The big loss to Denison doomed them when the committee took a careful look--that and of course the SOS.

Denison, despite their fine year and great QB weren't even in the regional rankings. The committee clearly considered that a bad loss. A 9-1 Wabash with only a loss to Witt has gotten in before. Losing to Witt is different than losing to Denison.

I think Wabash was peaking at the right time and probably would have been a tough out even on the road in the first round. But going 10-0 is really the only way to fix this.
"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

Quote from: sigma one on October 11, 2015, 10:46:46 AMI don't drink with the enemy, and I don't drink lattes at all, with anyone.

Li'l Giant

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 11:18:03 AM

Albion and Hampden-Sydney are great examples of what I'm talking about.  The season before Wabash began its home and home with Albion, the Britons were a 9-win playoff team (actually eliminated by Wabash in the first round of the 2015 playoffs...memorable for Mason Zurek's single game rushing record and this piece of absolute brilliance by Connor Ludwig:

)


Any reason to break that gif out....
"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

Quote from: sigma one on October 11, 2015, 10:46:46 AMI don't drink with the enemy, and I don't drink lattes at all, with anyone.

sigma one

#34721
Too early by half at least, but looking forward to next year Wabash could be loaded on defense and strong on offense.  The entire defensive backfield returns.  Two of the top four linebackers return (and four of the top six).  The defensive line was young and good players return there too.  Ike James has to recover, but if he gets back to anything close to the form of a year ago, he and Isaac Avant will be a two-headed beast.  The QB has a year under his belt.  The offensive line gets back 3/4 starters and almost all the #2s.
     Wabash chief weaknesses this year--kicking and special teams--will have to be addressed.  Barring unexpected attrition, things look promising.
     As for the conference, Allegheny will look to make a run.  They lose T. Balla and Logan Lee.  But QB Naz Greer, who played a lot early on, will be back.  Otherwise, almost all the offensive and defense return.
     Denison gets wiped out on offense.  I think they lose 8/9 starters.  I've seen Minton listed as both a junior and a senior.  If he  returns, that's a big bonus.  The defense loses very little and could improve on a good year if, as this year, the offense can dominate TOP.
     DePauw was, well, disappointing.  The 4-6 record surprised almost everyone.  Many predictors had them at 8-2 or 7-3.  They lose a bunch defensively, particularly up front.  Most of the LBs and several DBs will also go.  They will have to find some RBs and WRs.
     It would be good for everyone if Hiram and Kenyon would improve. 
     Ohio Wesleyan was very strong on defense and horrible on offense.  They play almost everybody tough, but they will need to find some skill guys to get better.
     Oberlin plays hard and gets a lot out of their talent.  They are just so thin.  Let's hope they have a decent recruiting class.
     Wittenberg is, yea, Wittenberg.  They lose Kennedy at QB and a couple of wide receivers.  Also about half the defense.  But there are always new ones waiting in the wings.  Expect nothing but another talented team.
     Wooster is in position to rise up in the ranks thanks to the return of their freshman QB and best WR.  They appear to have 15 or so starters returning.
     I think the conference has a chance to be better next year if Allegheny, DePauw, and Wooster improve.  Denison will be the biggest ? in my mind as we see if they can repeat this year's successes--or come close enough to once again lean on the other teams at the top of the league.   

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 04:41:46 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 14, 2018, 04:27:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 14, 2018, 04:09:52 PM
Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
Any chance of eliminating the full round robin conference slate?  It does determine a worthy conference champion but all but eliminates the runner-up(s) from at-large consideraton.  A 7 game conference schedule with 3 non-con would be pretty interesting (and probably a scheduling nightmare, I know)

That's the whole thing, right there.  I was an early opponent of the full round robin, but the nightmare that has becoming out of conference scheduling is something that should be avoided at all costs.  Denison- not a team that you would think has a hard time scheduling one little OOC game- had to sign up for a home and home with a school in Texas to complete their schedule.  Denison has still has an open date listed for next year.  Wabash is going up to Stevens Point next year.  I don't think that's a first option for Wabash, but at some point you need to pair off with whoever might say yes before you find yourself having to play club teams in Georgia. 

Quote from: wabashcpa on November 14, 2018, 03:30:50 PM
And simple eye test confirms that this year's team was not playoff caliber, at least not at the level of prior Wabash teams that went dancing.  Hopefully we can up our game recruiting and get back to that level.

I do appreciate the thoughts about Wabash ending 2018 on a high note...but I kinda would have liked to see this team, playing the way are now, get a shot in this field.  There's a confidence and a looseness that has come over the team over the last few weeks. I don't know...maybe could have surprised some people and won a game.
[/b]

Highly unlikely.  Since Denison is getting sent to Alliance, if Wabash had been picked you could probably sub Wabash for Denison as the sacrificial lamb! ;)

I don't think so.  Wabash (5) was ranked higher than Denison (not at all), so there's little chance Wabash would have wound up in Alliance.  Probably closer to the Trine/St. Norbert type of area on the bracket.

OK.  I was thinking you meant if Wabash had been picked as a Pool C, with Denison still the A.  If Wabash had been the A, I thik bluestreak66 may have nailed it.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Li'l Giant on November 14, 2018, 05:47:55 PM
Any reason to break that gif out....

That gif is HOF.  That might be the most athletic play I've seen on a Wabash football field.   Will take additional nominees. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

The All-NCAC teams and postseason awards  have been announced.

Congratulations to Jose Franco (Newcomer of the Year) and Coach Morel for their postseason awards!  Well deserved for both. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire