D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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Raider 68

Let's see how the Raiders finish the year and what the numbers tell us. Assuming that the Raiders are a #1 seed with home field advantage, they will be tough to beat at home during the playoffs. Can it be done, yes, I would not bet against them.

A thought to consider, they are getting better. only giving up 5.6 pts per game since first game against UW-OSH, and the running game is back. Maybe it good that many do not expect to see them in championship game after all the great Mount teams. If they do not make this year, the have a ton returning for the next 2 years with all those sophomores now!  :)
13 time Division III National Champions

wally_wabash

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 21, 2010, 12:17:00 PM
No way UMU should be lower than two...they are closer to UWW than Wesley in my opinion.

I wouldn't disagree with anybody that wanted to rank Wesley ahead of Mount Union based on what's been done in 2010.  Wesley has a win over Delaware Valley and a roadie over Capital which are a pair of wins better than pretty much everybody else in D-III.  If you wanted to lean on the "who have you played and who did you beat" philisophy of balloting, Wesley has a good case to be in the top two.  BTW, that is the philosophy I used when ranking these teams, although I suspended my own rules for UWW and Mount Union because the rules just simply don't apply to them anymore.  Until they lose to someone other than each other, they get the benefit of the doubt against every other team in the division. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

02 Warhawk

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 21, 2010, 01:49:18 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 21, 2010, 12:17:00 PM
No way UMU should be lower than two...they are closer to UWW than Wesley in my opinion.

I wouldn't disagree with anybody that wanted to rank Wesley ahead of Mount Union based on what's been done in 2010.  Wesley has a win over Delaware Valley and a roadie over Capital which are a pair of wins better than pretty much everybody else in D-III.  If you wanted to lean on the "who have you played and who did you beat" philisophy of balloting, Wesley has a good case to be in the top two.  BTW, that is the philosophy I used when ranking these teams, although I suspended my own rules for UWW and Mount Union because the rules just simply don't apply to them anymore.  Until they lose to someone other than each other, they get the benefit of the doubt against every other team in the division.  

yea, you're right...those are some good points. Wesley has looked good this year, and against some solid opponents. It's just for some reason I can't see them beating Mount or UWW. In the two meetings against UWW over the past 5 years, Wesley hasn't come within 37 points of them. And against a QB-less UMU last year, they still lost by 3 scores. but then again...this is a new year, and that was the past.

seventiesraider

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 21, 2010, 11:46:47 AM
I agree about Trine, they look like a solid team this season. I put them at #12. Even though Linfield had that early loss, I still consider them one of the better teams in the country, I posted them at #8. they are a better team than Harden Simmon and D. Valley I believe.

I left Wabash out of the top 25...they lost to a very mediocre team two weeks ago. So I put Case Western at 25.

Quote from: CardinalAlum on October 21, 2010, 09:25:38 AM
I was surprised at Wartburg, both in the D3football poll and especially this one. 

I can't speak for everyone, but strength in recent games (Wartburg vs Coe) and recent losses (or close calls) to unranked teams weighed heavily in my choices
Same as it ever was...same as it ever was...same as it ever was...

HScoach

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 21, 2010, 12:17:00 PM
Quote from: USee on October 21, 2010, 11:55:37 AM
Thanks HSC, subject to the ire of OAC poster's I'll admit I have Mt Union 3rd on my ballot behind Wesley. The reason is similar to the ones you cite but its much simpler for me. In their championship runs they have played dominant defense throughout the regular season and been very effective running the ball. I don't see them handling the LOS the same way they have in the past. Here is a run down of an interesting stat on Mt Union that I view as somewhat telling:

Yds per play average by Mt Union since 2001:

year          off          def          National Champ
2010          6.7          3.9          ?
2009          7.1          3.5          UWW
2008          8.2          3.5          Mt Union
2007          7.5          2.8          UWW
2006          7.5          3.2          Mt Union
2005          7.2          3.5          Mt Union
2004          6.7             3.4          Linfield
2003          7.4          3.8         St Johns
2002          7.4          3.5          Mt Union
2001          7.2          3.5          Mt Union



Not sure if that means anything, b/c they also lost the championship game (2007) when they had the best defensive year (according to your chart), while their offense had their second best season since 2001.

No way UMU should be lower than two...they are closer to UWW than Wesley in my opinion.

I agree on Wesley as I have them 5th on my ballot.   They weren't nearly as close to beating Mount last year as they think.   

Usee will probably have a heart attack, but I have North Central #2.   ;D 

I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: HScoach on October 21, 2010, 03:31:04 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 21, 2010, 12:17:00 PM
Quote from: USee on October 21, 2010, 11:55:37 AM
Thanks HSC, subject to the ire of OAC poster's I'll admit I have Mt Union 3rd on my ballot behind Wesley. The reason is similar to the ones you cite but its much simpler for me. In their championship runs they have played dominant defense throughout the regular season and been very effective running the ball. I don't see them handling the LOS the same way they have in the past. Here is a run down of an interesting stat on Mt Union that I view as somewhat telling:

Yds per play average by Mt Union since 2001:

year          off          def          National Champ
2010          6.7          3.9          ?
2009          7.1          3.5          UWW
2008          8.2          3.5          Mt Union
2007          7.5          2.8          UWW
2006          7.5          3.2          Mt Union
2005          7.2          3.5          Mt Union
2004          6.7             3.4          Linfield
2003          7.4          3.8         St Johns
2002          7.4          3.5          Mt Union
2001          7.2          3.5          Mt Union



Not sure if that means anything, b/c they also lost the championship game (2007) when they had the best defensive year (according to your chart), while their offense had their second best season since 2001.

No way UMU should be lower than two...they are closer to UWW than Wesley in my opinion.

I agree on Wesley as I have them 5th on my ballot.   They weren't nearly as close to beating Mount last year as they think.   

Usee will probably have a heart attack, but I have North Central #2.   ;D 



Where will you have NCC after my Titans shock the world on Saturday? ;D

(Actually, not even I am predicting that, though I'm taking the Titans against your spread. ;))

108Vincent

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 21, 2010, 01:49:18 PM
Wesley has a win over Delaware Valley and a roadie over Capital which are a pair of wins better than pretty much everybody else in D-III.

The win over Capital carries less weight than it would have over the last several years.  Capital is 3-3 this year headed into the Mount Union game.  They were fairly well dominated by #10 Ohio Northern 44-10, whereas Wesley didn't pull away from Capital until the last five minutes of the game.  Also, the Del Val game was pretty tight.  I'm not saying Wesley won't make another deep run in the playoffs, but #3 might be generous.

usee

I saw Wesley play at UWW in their last meeting and they looked terrible. I remember wondering how they even made the tournament. But UWW does that to teams that visit the Perk sometimes.

I had NCC 4th on my ballot. #2 is generous because their offense is unproven against good competition and they havne't done well in the postseason IMO. I think they are very good up front on both sides of the ball and I think their defense is the real deal. We will see what they do against a good, balanced offense with a strong OLine. Right now I say they'll be favored in all of their remaining games but @Wheaton Nov 4 will tell us a bit. NCC has played extremely well against Wheaton the past 2 contests.

K-Mack

My initial reaction is that this is a cool endeavor, one that will give you guys a lot of insight into what it's like to do this week after week, but that your group of 16 produced a result not all that different from the official group of 25.

I'm not sure what it means, that the more people that vote, the more "righter" the result is, or that we're all victims of groupthink and influence each other into voting the same way.

Mount Union is the clear No. 2. I wouldn't say Wesley was completely outclassed when they played last year -- and I realize this is this year we're talking about -- and I realize this isn't your normal Mount Union team. But history has taught us that Mount Union teams get stronger as the year goes on, and I think they deserve to be the exeption to the re-evaluate-every-week rule until something drastic enough happens to show us they don't belong at No. 2.

That said, after this week, Wesley and MUC will have a common opponent, which is something we don't often have as a tool of comparison.

Also, the 2007 MUC team was definitely the most statistically dominant, and had it beaten UW-W, might have eclipsed 2002 or 1997(?) as the best MUC team ever. Probably another reason stats don't always tell the whole story. And also what made that UWW team one for the ages, because it had another team for the ages to beat.

I don't see what secret balloting accomplishes. I think you guys should list your 16 and openly discuss where you rank teams. That's basically the point, to generate further thinking/discussion, is it not?
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

usee

K-Mack,

thanks for your comments. I agree with you (except the Mt Union part). I will certainly re-evaluate Mt Union after this weeks "common opponent". I am a toss up between Mt and Wesley at #2. In my opinion they haven't shown the dominance we have come to expect. That said, as they begin to do so I will respond.

I saw your ATN this week and your "overranked" list and meant to comment on the ATN board. On Trine, I think your arguement can be used the other way. THey may be under ranked because many are taking into account the atrocious performance of the MIAA in the non conference and post season. Trine has a good win at UWRF (I realize they are winless but that didn't hurt ONU and UWRF is likely the best winless team in the nation). I remember seeing them in the 2008 playoffs and they were the best team I saw that year. Their staff is putting it together and they haven't let up since then, accomplishing more in 2009 and I think their progression will continue in 2010.

I'm all for open ballots. I have freely thrown my picks out here for debate. I am just 1 guy and don't see all that many do so love to get the feedback. I should add that I tried very hard not to look at or recall the D3 top 25 while doing my ballot.


wally_wabash

Quote from: K-Mack on October 21, 2010, 06:33:10 PM
My initial reaction is that this is a cool endeavor, one that will give you guys a lot of insight into what it's like to do this week after week, but that your group of 16 produced a result not all that different from the official group of 25.

I'm not sure what it means, that the more people that vote, the more "righter" the result is, or that we're all victims of groupthink and influence each other into voting the same way.

It's not too surprising to me that the two polls are pretty close to one another.  The "fan" poll isn't comprised of coaches and SIDs and media, but we're all following the same teams and we all have access to essentially the same information.  While different pockets of each polling group may process that data in different ways (some will take a "who could beat who on a neutral field" approach and eschew a lot of statistics, some will prefer statistics and actual results to the hypothetical...and either is right because this is, after all, an opinion poll), when you pile all of those ballots together, you'll probably wind up with similar results. 

I will say that putting together the list was more difficult than I had imagined it would be...and I'm sure that I didn't do quite the same level of research that you or the other D3Football.com voters do.  It is fun to do and I'm looking forward to seeing how the experience changes now that my "baseline" poll has been established. 

And I'll post my top 25 when I get back to where I have it saved...at risk of getting totally skewered.   :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

As promised...here's how I ranked the top 25 this week...

1   Whitewater
2   Mount Union
3   Wesley
4   UMHB
5   North Central
6   St. Thomas
7   Wartburg
8   Wheaton
9   Hampden-Sydney
10   St. John Fisher
11   Bethel
12   Montclair State
13   Delaware Valley
14   Hardiin-Simmons
15   Coe
16   Ohio Northern
17   Wittenberg
18   Trine
19   Pacific Lutheran
20   Cal Lutheran
21   Linfield
22   Thomas More
23   Ursinus
24   Central
25   Rowan

And for what it's worth...my next two were Cortland State and DePauw.  I'm happy to field questions...later.  Tonight I'm focused on watching the Giants try to get back to the World Series.  :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HScoach

Will post mine later.  Typing this from
my phone
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

seventiesraider

I have to admit it was a time consuming and interesting exercise. I'm sure I agree that keeping the voters a secret isn't necessary since most of us have too big of ego's  to "stay in the closet" . I'm not sure posting all our individual polls would be too smart either, cause then we get into second guessing everyone. I gave a lot of weight to strength of schedule and recent results, so I'm sure mine would ruffle some feathers. And yes there were some undefeated teams that got pushed down to 27 & 28.
Same as it ever was...same as it ever was...same as it ever was...

theoriginalupstate

Just so Wally doesn't feel like he's hanging in the wind here's my ballot this week...

1- UW-Whitewater
2- Mount Union
3- St. Thomas
4- Wesley
5- Mary Hardin Baylor
6- North Central
7- Hardin-Simmons
8- Delaware Valley
9- Wittenberg
10- Ohio Northern
11- Linfield
12- Wartburg
13- St. John Fisher
14- Thomas More
15- Coe
16- Wheaton
17- Central
18- Trine
19- Pac-Lutheran
20- Montclair St.
21- Bethel
22- Cal Lutheran
23- Ursinus
24- Hamden Sydney
25- Rowan

Bash away...