Pool C 2018

Started by bluestreak66, October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM

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Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2018, 02:59:22 PM
I'll work on an eliminator table tonight and possibly a mock selection, time permitting.  I may hold off on a mock selection until the various regions post their weekly fan polls which I like to use a surrogate regional rankings.
Wally, I am still 2 ballots away from the complete set.

I have a long night at work so I probably will not have these up until 8PM CDT tomorrow.

wally_wabash

Let's get an Eliminator table out there. 




A legend:
- Teams in red cells are out of at-large consideration
- Teams in green cells are still alive for at-large consideration
- Teams in grey cells are not eligible for the 2018 postseason (provisional or reclassifying or whatever)
- Conferences labeled in purple are not eligible for one of the 26 automatic bids
- Clicking the tables with blow them up for easier reading. 

As a first pass, the teams that are eliminated here meet one of the following criteria:
- More than two losses.  In the pool era (1999-present) no team with more than two losses has received an at-large bid.  Depending on what happens in the NEWMAC, we may challenge that in 2018.  But probably not. 
- A team has two out of conference losses.  In this scenario, a team not winning their league would necessarily pick up a third loss and wind up getting covered by the first point. 

We've got about 100 teams still alive after we apply those two criteria.  There are some other things in play like a UMAC team has never received an at-large bid.  We can know with great certainty that this isn't the year the UMAC is getting two teams in the field, but to err on the side of caution we'll wait until we see regional rankings to confirm that 1 and 2 loss UMAC teams are too far down the at-large list in their own region to be considered.  I'm sure there are a handful of teams out there that have two losses and haven't lost to a current league leader (yet) and will either win their league or get eliminated with a third loss- I'll give it a couple more weeks before I get that granular with schedule analysis.  Most of that stuff works itself out so that we don't have to rip through two dozen different conference championship/runner-up scenarios here.  If you're new to this, you'll see that the table whittles itself down organically week to week. 

I'll get a Pool A/B/C projection up probably tomorrow night.  I'll be interested to see if my projection matches up with what I'm seeing as the common logic that these bids are going to easily and obviously get dealt out to teams from the ASC/OAC/MIAC/NJAC/WIAC/CCIW. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

The Mole

I like this list and would add one more if teams in the CCIW and OAC continue to knock each other off. If Johns Hopkins knocks off Muhlenberg for the A in the Centennial and the Mules win out at 9-1 they could be in the conversation with continued mayhem. Next few weeks are going to be intense and fun to watch.

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 15, 2018, 09:14:10 PM
Quote from: JCUStreaks70 on October 15, 2018, 07:01:29 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 14, 2018, 07:28:50 PM
Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 14, 2018, 02:30:51 PM
Now that we're this far into the season, how does everyone think pool C will shape up this year?


As of today:
1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll winner
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, W&J*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
       *If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.

(No particular order)

I hate to even say this, but let's not forget BW for the OAC. With JCU and Marietta still on the schedule, if they win out they would sit at 9-1 and I think a lock.

Either way, it's good to see some competition in the OAC. I would love to see the JCU-BW game on 11/10 at JCU (and my annual trip from Chicago back to the helm) be an essential play-in game!

So with input from others, right now it looks like:

1. Wesley/Salisbury winner
2. St. Thomas/Bethel winner
3. Marietta/John Carroll/BW (If anyone ends up a 1 loss runner-up)
4. HSU/Texas Lutheran winner
5. Between: UWO, Linfield, CWRU*, Frostburg St*, Salisbury*, Wittenberg*, Central*
       *If they don't win their conference and end season as a one loss team.
TAKE THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED

wally_wabash

If you're new to this, I kind of do it stream of consciousness style when I get to the at-large stuff.  Right now, all I've got is a Pool A table (coming below) and the list of ranked teams with some primary criteria data in a table.  I'll compare those teams and write about it as I'm looking at it. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 26 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, one Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences (NEWMAC + Thomas More)
- That leaves 5 spots left which will be Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
x

Nobody has clinched yet, so this is all pure projection at this point. 

Pool B
Pool B will be a running h2h comparison between the only team available from the South region, Thomas More, and whoever is winning the NEWMAC.  Could I get cute with this and try to justify a team that didn't win the NEWMAC for this spot if they had some sort of criteria advantage?  Maybe.  We'll see how that goes the further we get along this season.  For now though, I'm assuming the winner of the NEWMAC will be the top ranked Pool B-eligible team from the East region.  This week, that's going to be MIT.   

Round 1:
MIT: 6-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.446 (176th) SOS
Thomas More: 5-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.569 (57th)

So right now even though TMC has advantages in SOS and RRO results (0-1 vs. RRO is generally better than 0-0 vs RRO), if we have an undefeated NEWMAC champion, they're going in and that's what I'm doing here.  Thomas More is really only getting this bid in front of the NEWMAC champion if Thomas More wins at St. John's in Week 11 AND the top of the NEWMAC kind of chews itself up over the last month of the season. 

Currently, Thomas More and MIT are both not ranked by their regional committees (thank you fan polls for acting as surrogates this week), so the remaining at large tableaus from each region stand as follows:
East: Wesley, Salisbury, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred
North: John Carroll, North Central, WashU, Wheaton, Marietta
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Johns Hopkins, Centre
West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield, Bethel

Not much to note from these lists.  In the North region we have a glut of CCIW teams that don't separate all that easily.  Same kind of deal with the NJAC teams in the East.  I'm not going to disqualify teams from the same conferences yet.  Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the next week or so. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
3E Wesley - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.472 (157th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(Wesley, JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons)

I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals.  What a board!  So at this point in the season what we've got are mostly single loss teams that lost to the team we're projecting to win the conference, hence all of the 0-1's vs RROs.  The SOS's are a little bit all over the place, but they will normalize a bit between now and the end of the season.  The differentiator for me on this board is that Wesley played and beat a ranked team (Del Val), nobody else has really beaten anybody and the "result" part of the RRO thing is two tight losses (JCU and Wesley) and a pair of not-so close losses (St. Thomas and HSU).  Wesley is my pick. 

Round 2:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, Salisbury)

So Salisbury jumps in and Salisbury is totally untested and has a wretched SOS which is going to put them at the end of this line for the time being, despite the 6-0 record.  John Carroll was close to being my first pick here, Salisbury doesn't change that equation for me, so the Streaks come off next.   

Round 3:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, North Central, Salisbury)

This is where the early season predictions get weird.  North Central has a good profile today, but they still have a game with IWU that, if they win, probably makes them Pool A and if they lose, knocks them way down in the rankings and changes how we evaluate them.  They have played some difficult games so far, so I slotted them in front of Salisbury on my mock ballot.  So that leaves us with St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons.  I don't see a ton of profile difference between these two teams.  Their one big game both ended in 3-4 score margins but while St. Thomas was one yard away from applying serious pressure to St. John's, the Cowboys benefitted from red zone miscues against UMHB that depressed the margin in that game.  Teeny edge to St. Thomas.   

Round 4:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(Hardin-Simmons, UW-Oshkosh, North Central, Salisbury)

Oshkosh is an interesting addition.  They have a not so competitive loss to UWW.  Similar ranked opponent losses exist on the profiles of HSU and NCC.  They are 1-1 outside of the division and I don't know what all to do with that.  They do have a common opponent with North Central (Carthage) but we won't have that result until Saturday (and it isn't likely to help Oshkosh).  It's close here, but I'm slotting Oshkosh between HSU and NCC on my ballot in this round.  HSU is my pick to go in.  They've been on the board from the beginning, they are the #2 team in their region, and have no real red flags.  The truth here is that these first four picks could come off in any order and we'd probably wind up with these same four in as we go to the final round.   

Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)

So, quick sidebar on CWRU.  They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now.  Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade.  But now they've got get away from  Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them.  So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J.  The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there.  Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central.  In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles.  As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick.  If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc.  This would be super close if these files were closed. 

And so, for now at least, the at-large bids all went off to teams in the conferences that people have been suggesting.  Our fan polling is a good substitute for the regional rankings, but I will say that the regional rankings often value teams from non-power leagues a shade more than our fan polls do.  So runners up from places like the Centennial, North Coast, Northwest, SAA are very much in play.  Lots can happen in the last month of the season. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bleedpurple

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2018, 10:54:00 PM
If you're new to this, I kind of do it stream of consciousness style when I get to the at-large stuff.  Right now, all I've got is a Pool A table (coming below) and the list of ranked teams with some primary criteria data in a table.  I'll compare those teams and write about it as I'm looking at it. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 26 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, one Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences (NEWMAC + Thomas More)
- That leaves 5 spots left which will be Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
x

Nobody has clinched yet, so this is all pure projection at this point. 

Pool B
Pool B will be a running h2h comparison between the only team available from the South region, Thomas More, and whoever is winning the NEWMAC.  Could I get cute with this and try to justify a team that didn't win the NEWMAC for this spot if they had some sort of criteria advantage?  Maybe.  We'll see how that goes the further we get along this season.  For now though, I'm assuming the winner of the NEWMAC will be the top ranked Pool B-eligible team from the East region.  This week, that's going to be MIT.   

Round 1:
MIT: 6-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.446 (176th) SOS
Thomas More: 5-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.569 (57th)

So right now even though TMC has advantages in SOS and RRO results (0-1 vs. RRO is generally better than 0-0 vs RRO), if we have an undefeated NEWMAC champion, they're going in and that's what I'm doing here.  Thomas More is really only getting this bid in front of the NEWMAC champion if Thomas More wins at St. John's in Week 11 AND the top of the NEWMAC kind of chews itself up over the last month of the season. 

Currently, Thomas More and MIT are both not ranked by their regional committees (thank you fan polls for acting as surrogates this week), so the remaining at large tableaus from each region stand as follows:
East: Wesley, Salisbury, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred
North: John Carroll, North Central, WashU, Wheaton, Marietta
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Johns Hopkins, Centre
West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield, Bethel

Not much to note from these lists.  In the North region we have a glut of CCIW teams that don't separate all that easily.  Same kind of deal with the NJAC teams in the East.  I'm not going to disqualify teams from the same conferences yet.  Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the next week or so. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
3E Wesley - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.472 (157th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(Wesley, JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons)

I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals.  What a board!  So at this point in the season what we've got are mostly single loss teams that lost to the team we're projecting to win the conference, hence all of the 0-1's vs RROs.  The SOS's are a little bit all over the place, but they will normalize a bit between now and the end of the season.  The differentiator for me on this board is that Wesley played and beat a ranked team (Del Val), nobody else has really beaten anybody and the "result" part of the RRO thing is two tight losses (JCU and Wesley) and a pair of not-so close losses (St. Thomas and HSU).  Wesley is my pick. 

Round 2:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, Salisbury)

So Salisbury jumps in and Salisbury is totally untested and has a wretched SOS which is going to put them at the end of this line for the time being, despite the 6-0 record.  John Carroll was close to being my first pick here, Salisbury doesn't change that equation for me, so the Streaks come off next.   

Round 3:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, North Central, Salisbury)

This is where the early season predictions get weird.  North Central has a good profile today, but they still have a game with IWU that, if they win, probably makes them Pool A and if they lose, knocks them way down in the rankings and changes how we evaluate them.  They have played some difficult games so far, so I slotted them in front of Salisbury on my mock ballot.  So that leaves us with St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons.  I don't see a ton of profile difference between these two teams.  Their one big game both ended in 3-4 score margins but while St. Thomas was one yard away from applying serious pressure to St. John's, the Cowboys benefitted from red zone miscues against UMHB that depressed the margin in that game.  Teeny edge to St. Thomas.   

Round 4:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(Hardin-Simmons, UW-Oshkosh, North Central, Salisbury)

Oshkosh is an interesting addition.  They have a not so competitive loss to UWW.  Similar ranked opponent losses exist on the profiles of HSU and NCC.  They are 1-1 outside of the division and I don't know what all to do with that.  They do have a common opponent with North Central (Carthage) but we won't have that result until Saturday (and it isn't likely to help Oshkosh).  It's close here, but I'm slotting Oshkosh between HSU and NCC on my ballot in this round.  HSU is my pick to go in.  They've been on the board from the beginning, they are the #2 team in their region, and have no real red flags.  The truth here is that these first four picks could come off in any order and we'd probably wind up with these same four in as we go to the final round.   

Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)

So, quick sidebar on CWRU.  They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now.  Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade.  But now they've got get away from  Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them.  So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J.  The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there.  Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central.  In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles.  As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick.  If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc.  This would be super close if these files were closed. 

And so, for now at least, the at-large bids all went off to teams in the conferences that people have been suggesting.  Our fan polling is a good substitute for the regional rankings, but I will say that the regional rankings often value teams from non-power leagues a shade more than our fan polls do.  So runners up from places like the Centennial, North Coast, Northwest, SAA are very much in play.  Lots can happen in the last month of the season.

Thanks, Wally. Awesome as always!

Ralph Turner


E.115

Thanks Wally.  As always, great analysis.

Definitely a bummer if what you say is true about CWRU, that they won't have a shot even with running table.  But it is what it is.  Do I dare say this year's team (at least on offense) looks better than last year's 11-1 team?  But like you said, it doesn't matter.

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2018, 10:54:00 PM
Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)

So, quick sidebar on CWRU.  They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now.  Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade.  But now they've got get away from  Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them.  So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J.  The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there.  Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central.  In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles.  As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick.  If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc.  This would be super close if these files were closed. 

There is a big reason for Rochester.  The UAA still exists:  http://uaasports.info/sports/fball/index   It's just down to three teams.   CWRU technically plays a 100% league schedule.  Rochester is a UAA league game.  In current affiliations. there are literally zero spots on the schedule for anyone else.   

Locally, CWRU only battles John Carroll in the mighty preseason https://www.news-herald.com/sports/case-football-team-impresses-in-scrimmage-john-carroll-coach-says/article_321152ad-b54b-5a52-9d49-f5a60db0fe9e.html and has JV affiliations alternating games with Baldwin Wallace and John Carroll.  Although it is nice to have local football synergies, it'd be incredible one day to have a local team (John Carroll, Baldwin Wallace, Mount Union) actually on a 10-game schedule. 

wally_wabash

Quote from: E.115 on October 17, 2018, 08:23:37 AM
Thanks Wally.  As always, great analysis.

Definitely a bummer if what you say is true about CWRU, that they won't have a shot even with running table.  But it is what it is.  Do I dare say this year's team (at least on offense) looks better than last year's 11-1 team?  But like you said, it doesn't matter.

There is a big reason for Rochester.  The UAA still exists:  http://uaasports.info/sports/fball/index   It's just down to three teams.   CWRU technically plays a 100% league schedule.  Rochester is a UAA league game.  In current affiliations. there are literally zero spots on the schedule for anyone else.   

Locally, CWRU only battles John Carroll in the mighty preseason https://www.news-herald.com/sports/case-football-team-impresses-in-scrimmage-john-carroll-coach-says/article_321152ad-b54b-5a52-9d49-f5a60db0fe9e.html and has JV affiliations alternating games with Baldwin Wallace and John Carroll.  Although it is nice to have local football synergies, it'd be incredible one day to have a local team (John Carroll, Baldwin Wallace, Mount Union) actually on a 10-game schedule. 

As the cards sit right now, CWRU doesn't really look like they have a good chance.  BUT- they do at least get on the board, which is more than a lot of other Pool C hopefuls can say (Linfield, Bethel, Centre...to name a few).  At this point, that's not a bad place to start.  CWRU seems unlikely to lose between and the end of the year.  A lot of their at-large competition still have significant obstacles to clear- I think it's unlikely that they all get through unscathed.  In this analysis, North Central is in CWRU's way but I don't think North Central is likely to be in this position in a month (they'll either win the CCIW or catch a second loss).  Also, in my analysis last night, I took Hardin-Simmons off the board in Round 4.  They could easily go off in Round 1, which brings CWRU to the table with four rounds of voting left and that can really change the calculus as well. 

That's all a long way of saying that that there are a lot of moving parts and I think CWRU's position will only get better as we play out the last four weeks.  I don't know if it's enough to get them invited, but they're in the conversation for sure. 

I'm not in a position to judge CWRU's decision to continue on with the UAA football thing.  If that relationship is important to those three schools, cool.  It comes at a cost when we get into at-large selections, but I can respect the choice if the game is important for reasons beyond football. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Oline89

This is a terrific analysis, thanks!  Perhaps this is already answered, but next year , when Thomas More heads to the NAIA, does the NEWMAC move into the Pool A group?  Is pool B eliminated?

ADL70

It's not certain that the UAA thing will continue.  CWRU's Media Guide has future schedule for 2020, but only the PAC games, no non-conference game.
SPARTANS...PREPARE FOR GLORY
HA-WOO, HA-WOO, HA-WOO
Think beyond the possible.
Compete, Win, Respect, Unite

wally_wabash

Quote from: Oline89 on October 17, 2018, 10:32:17 AM
This is a terrific analysis, thanks!  Perhaps this is already answered, but next year , when Thomas More heads to the NAIA, does the NEWMAC move into the Pool A group?  Is pool B eliminated?

I think the NEWMAC concludes their provisional period after this year and gets an automatic qualifier starting next season.  With Thomas More departing the division, that leaves us with zero Pool B eligible teams. 

If the NEWMAC were still in the provisional period next season, I'm not sure that their 8 teams would be enough to create a Pool B bid (I don't know the exact access ratio off the top of my head...it's right on that line though).  The Liberty League avoided being in no man's land next year with their Buffalo State onboarding.  I'm glad we don't have a situation where teams in a conference don't have tournament access.  That would have been a shame. 
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Pat Coleman

Even if the NEWMAC didn't have an AQ next year and Pool B didn't exist, a playoff-quality team could always gain access through Pool C.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Oline89

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 17, 2018, 11:55:35 AM
Even if the NEWMAC didn't have an AQ next year and Pool B didn't exist, a playoff-quality team could always gain access through Pool C.

So next year it is Pool A and Pool C?

Pat Coleman

Quote from: Oline89 on October 17, 2018, 01:07:34 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 17, 2018, 11:55:35 AM
Even if the NEWMAC didn't have an AQ next year and Pool B didn't exist, a playoff-quality team could always gain access through Pool C.

So next year it is Pool A and Pool C?

Barring something unforeseen, yes, it should be.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

wally_wabash

But there won't be any additional at-large access.  There will be 27 Pool A bids and still just the five Pool Cs. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire