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Messages - ExTartanPlayer

#1
PAC does appear to have picked up some respect in the final poll thanks to Grove City's playoff performance and Cortland's title. GCC ends up a very deserving #10 in the poll and CMU ends up coming in at 25. Two ranked teams in the final poll!
#2
Considering that Grove City a) beat the only team that beat the eventual national champions and b) lost a close heartbreaker to the national champions themselves and c) needed to work hard to beat W&J and CMU, maybe Pat will reluctantly concede that the top teams in the PAC were perhaps a bit underrated.

What a moment for D3 football. Maybe we're finally past the days when there are only 2 or 3 teams are real national title contenders. Massive congrats to Cortland (what an epic game!) and they give me hope that D3 football is now a sport where a bunch of top 25ish schools play on relatively equal footing rather than there being a big 2-3-4 teams that are 30 points clear of everyone else.
#3
Didn't get to watch on Saturday, but heartbreaking loss for Grove City.

Congrats to the Wolverines on an excellent season and for representing the PAC well in the playoffs.  With GCC playoff win and very-near-miss for a quarterfinal berth plus Carnegie Mellon and W&J's playoff wins, hopefully it does continue nudging the national reputation of the PAC upwards.  I'm a little worried that next year with the closed-loop schedule we will get the same story as this year, so everybody had better go home and get cracking to try to win that conference title next year.

Congrats to all the seniors from all PAC schools, and best wishes in future pursuits.
#4
I'm gonna add a x3 or x4 or x5 on the posts saying that ECAC pairings are not about seeding teams or pairing the highest-ranked vs. lowest-ranked teams, but just about having some fun matchups against teams that otherwise would not regularly appear on your schedule.   It's just a good chance for two good teams that didn't quite make the dance to get a bonus game, so let's make them good bonus games if we can, or at least interesting for some other reason. I'd much rather see us (CMU) against Brockport (or any other LL / E8 / New England team that we have not played in >10 years) than against someone we do occasionally knock heads with (like for you guys...there are enough Empire 8 vs. LL matchups on a regular basis, better to set these so everybody plays someone a little outside their usual footprint). 

In the ECAC bowls from my time onwards, we (CMU) have played Gettysburg, Waynesburg (before joining the PAC), Bridgewater State, Salisbury, Muhlenberg, and Brevard.  That's cool!  Haven't even repeated an opponent's conference other than 2007 Gettysburg and 2017 Muhlenberg both being from the Centennial.  Don't know that we would ever play just about any of these teams otherwise.

As Ice Bear said, the level of motivation for these teams certainly varies...my personal experience, it was the last football game I would ever play, and there was something interesting about that finality to it.  Whatever the outcome it would be the last time I would ever suit up (cheesy as it can be, but I stood on the field with family & friends for a long, long, long time after the game just knowing that once I walked into the locker room and took off my jersey & pads, it was really over and I'd never wear them again).
#5
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on November 13, 2023, 08:27:37 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 13, 2023, 12:40:03 PM
Grove City has an "interesting" draw.

Part of me is salty on behalf of the conference that they did not get a first round home game; I think they deserve one.  We have previously discussed the things that may have prevented that (closed PAC schedule locking us all into .500 SoS numbers and preventing the chance to get RR wins out of conference; I also think that Region 2 only ranking seven teams is a screwjob, since CMU would have an argument to be ranked in at least three other regions; the fact that there are three OAC teams ranked and three MAC teams ranked but not a second from the PAC despite having a 9-1 runnerup feels pretty starkly ridiculous to me).  So I don't love that unbeaten Grove City is on the road while quite a few 9-1 teams within driving distance are hosting.  There's no real argument for them to host Susquehanna, who has a big SoS and two wins over other playoff teams, but I do wonder about some of the 9-1's hosting while Grove City gets sent to 10-0 Susquehanna.  Anyways...

That said, their quadrant...isn't horrible?  Susquehanna is a tough first round draw but not unbeatable, and both Endicott/Cortland also feel like they're at least in the same approximate strata as Grove City.  Everyone is tough in the playoffs, but I think a quarterfinal berth is not entirely out of the question.  A first round loss, also, is certainly possible; Susquehanna is unbeaten, battle tested with wins over two other playoff teams, and has some postseason experience on their roster.  Most would probably make them the favorite, and even I am torn in my rooting allegiance with a kid from my HS alma mater leading the charge at RB for Susquehanna.  But for the sake of the PAC, I am rooting for Grove City to win a couple so we can keep moving the PAC up in national estimation...

Well it certainly wasn't just GCC that should feel disrespect, it looks like even the 2x defending national champs are the #2 seed in their quadrant

By no means am I suggesting North Central did not also get a screwjob, but this being the PAC board and not the CCIW board nor a national board, I chose to comment on Grove City's draw.
#6
Grove City has an "interesting" draw.

Part of me is salty on behalf of the conference that they did not get a first round home game; I think they deserve one.  We have previously discussed the things that may have prevented that (closed PAC schedule locking us all into .500 SoS numbers and preventing the chance to get RR wins out of conference; I also think that Region 2 only ranking seven teams is a screwjob, since CMU would have an argument to be ranked in at least three other regions; the fact that there are three OAC teams ranked and three MAC teams ranked but not a second from the PAC despite having a 9-1 runnerup feels pretty starkly ridiculous to me).  So I don't love that unbeaten Grove City is on the road while quite a few 9-1 teams within driving distance are hosting.  There's no real argument for them to host Susquehanna, who has a big SoS and two wins over other playoff teams, but I do wonder about some of the 9-1's hosting while Grove City gets sent to 10-0 Susquehanna.  Anyways...

That said, their quadrant...isn't horrible?  Susquehanna is a tough first round draw but not unbeatable, and both Endicott/Cortland also feel like they're at least in the same approximate strata as Grove City.  Everyone is tough in the playoffs, but I think a quarterfinal berth is not entirely out of the question.  A first round loss, also, is certainly possible; Susquehanna is unbeaten, battle tested with wins over two other playoff teams, and has some postseason experience on their roster.  Most would probably make them the favorite, and even I am torn in my rooting allegiance with a kid from my HS alma mater leading the charge at RB for Susquehanna.  But for the sake of the PAC, I am rooting for Grove City to win a couple so we can keep moving the PAC up in national estimation...
#7
Quote from: jam40jeff on November 11, 2023, 05:13:31 PM
Quote from: WashJeff68 on November 04, 2023, 09:00:47 PM
My sons and I traveled from Cleveland, Knoxville, and Cincinnati to go to a fraternity reunion and watch the game. I have no explanation, but as they left the field after the game to go to the locker room they were psyched and talking about how they were back. Well, apparently they still have some work to do to get to the top tier of the PAC. No other PAC football team has won a national title, so they do have a history...

Now I'm truly baffled as to what team W&J is.  Getting shut out in the second half by Waynesburg and only winning by 5?  Was this the same team I saw playing CWRU 2 weeks ago?

W&J had quite a range of outcomes this season. Scraping by Waynesburg and Allegheny but also beating CWRU, going to the end with Grove City and blowing out Westminster. Even within game vs CMU they were a different team in the two halves though I credit much of that to CMU bringing a wrinkle in the offensive game plan they were not ready for.

Some teams are just a little inconsistent. And (though it shouldn't be like this) some teams at the end of a season that had playoff hopes at the start don't bring their best in week 11 if those playoff hopes are already extinguished. Maybe you'd say that shouldn't happen in a rivalry game, but none of the guys on W&J were around the last time Waynesburg was any meaningful sort of rival.  Reading the recap, W&J got up big and actually had a chance to be up even bigger (if I'm reading the game recap right they had two separate instances of fumbles on the 1 yard line resulting in touchbacks?!) and the offense just didn't keep the big plays coming that had scored in the first half, while Waynesburg finall did start to get it going.
#8
Quote from: hcdawg804 on November 10, 2023, 11:05:21 AM


It's been 4yrs since I officially joined this board, and 4yrs since I posted. Although I check this board daily in season and weekly out of season.

Ain't **** changed but the location, and sometimes that don't change. Hiram is still in the basement of the NCAC and D3 as a whole. I got an interesting stat for you guys. During Mroz's tenure they have gone 4-29. But that's not my stat.

2023: Beat Oberlin 27-19. Yeomen on the verge of going 1-9 down in Gambier this weekend.
2022: Beat 0-10 Oberlin and Hilbert 59-27. Hilbert has yet to win a game in program history (still not my stat). In 15 games Hilbert has scored no more than 27pts in a game, doing so twice. Other game was against Lyon.
2021: Beat 1-9 Bethany 41-21.

In the past 3 seasons Hiram has put up 588pts, and given up 1209pts. That is my stat. This season alone, 154/432.

So yea, nothing has changed. I'll give Mroz one more year. Hiram always has great players, every team does. But as I've said before, if you do not have a good leader in a HC, you will not succeed. But how do you get a good HC? By having ppl higher up in the institution that actually care about the football program. I know there a plenty of alums that want Hiram football to succeed. I just don't know if the right ppl are in place at Hiram College for the football team to ever achieve a conference title in the NCAC.

Hiram played against three potential playoff teams this season. Lost to Depauw 49-0, Wabash 52-13, and Mt St Joes 62-21. Those three teams are good but put them up against NC, Mount, WIAC teams etc they probably wouldn't do too well. Point being, Hiram has a long ladder to climb. They just need to get to the first check point, a winning season.

Obviously the game I'm tuning into this weekend for the NCAC is between the Indy teams. Don't care who wins just wanna see a good game. I guess if you held a gun to my head and forced me to pick a winner, I would go with Wabash because I would like to see what Thompson can do in the playoffs (I think he played in 2019 against North Central but was a freshman). Never seen him play in person but his stats are good, and everyone on here talks highly of him. D3 football had a nice little spotlight on him earlier this season.

One last side note... I see Depauw has scheduled Berry next season. That's a solid non conference opponent. Would like to see Berry get an "at large" this weekend, but doesn't seen promising.

Such a bummer.  A couple of years ago they graduated their best class in (recent) program history and for a brief moment it looked like something was happening (not exactly "playoff contender" but rising from "bottom feeder" to "middle of the pack" - the 2014 team finished 5-5 and actually beat not one but two teams that finished the season with winning records, Denison and OWU both finished 6-4).  IIRC they had a transfer QB (Partridge? that name seems right to me) from a D2 school and of course he was a catalyst but the whole team looked better for a few years.  I know somebody has to finish last in the league in any given season, but yeah it's a bummer to see the same team or two always going 1-9 and 0-10.

Oddly enough, I have two fond memories of playing at Hiram.  The very first game of my freshman season was at Hiram and I was on the kickoff return team so my very first collegiate play was the opening kickoff of that season.  The first game of my junior season (which ended with us in the playoffs) was a Mud Bowl at Hiram where we slogged to a 27-6 win despite only leading 10-0 at the half.  I still do recall it as a neat little place to play a game.  Shame they haven't been able to get anything going.
#9
I fear smedindy's sarcasm detector is broken if he didn't catch that Richard Ligmuh...never mind
#10
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
November 09, 2023, 10:00:09 AM
Quote from: MediaGuy on November 07, 2023, 10:14:26 PM
After listening to the interview with the playoff committee chair, it seems like he is committed to sticking to the strict interpretation of the criteria when selecting the playoff field.  That being said, wouldn't it make sense to have blind selections for Pool C. 

It seems like you would have the best overall field as well as be able to say that they arent playing favorites or selecting a team based on previous seasons, if when the 6 teams were up for pool C consideration, there were no team names assigned, just W/L, SOS and RvRRO.

Does this happen now and if not, what does everyone think about doing it that way in the future?

I think this would be just about impossible to implement for a couple reasons.

The only way to do it without giving away who the teams are is just showing the W/L, SOS, and RvRRO.  But the RvRRO has to be just a record and not include scores or even who the "RRO" are, otherwise it would be unmasking as to who the team(s) are.  And I find that problematic because not all "W" and "L" vs. RRO are equal.  If John Carroll is on the board, for example, there's a difference between them losing 49-14 to Mount Union vs. if they had lost 31-28.  Depending on who else was on the table I might be going to bat for an 8-2 team with a 27-23 and 31-28 loss against teams ranked first and second in their respective regions.  But without the scores / rankings of the opponents - if I'm just told "8-2, .550 SoS, 0-2 vs RRO" then I don't know if that "0-2" is "two close ones against two teams at the top of their respective regions" or two blowout losses or one close and one blowout nor do I know how highly those teams are ranked.  I think it matters to think not just of "record" vs RRO but "results" vs RRO and that means you need to know who they were and what the score was. 

My 2 cents, anyway.
#11
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
November 07, 2023, 06:17:29 AM
FWIW, I agree that NCC and Susquehanna are overwhelming favorites to win, but guys, the point of the exercise is to ID the games that matter this week and what different results mean.

Logan made this all very concise on Twitter:

https://x.com/loghanratings/status/1721577557491912974?s=46&t=vqSgX_T0AGAPfUWEdoeq9A
#12
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
November 06, 2023, 01:10:50 PM
Got a little too busy to make my post last week, but as they said on the podcast...not a good week really for fringe Pool C hopefuls (like my Tartans).  Most of the stuff that would have helped the fringe-Pool-C types didn't really happen.  There were some close ones where the Pool C candidate pulled it out (Wheaton pulling it out against WashU, Muhlenberg pulling it out in extra innings vs. Franklin & Marshall), which hurts teams like John Carroll, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, Carnegie Mellon who are also thrashing around in Pool C.

The short version of what you should be rooting for this week if you're a Pool C candidate is basically for "anyone that hasn't already sewn up the league title who might get a Pool C bid" to lose; but we also have the tricky layer here that lots of head-to-head Week 11 games determine who gets the AQ.  So if you're a fan of CMU, Muhlenberg, Berry, Union, John Carroll...all teams like that...you should root for everyone except (your team) to lose.  RPI vs. Union is kind of an interesting one, but I think you'd rather be up against both of them at 8-2 than having a 9-1 Union in the mix, so I think you've gotta root for RPI in that game if you're a fan of anyone but Union.

In those games, basically what you want to see is always for the stronger of the two (were they to go into Pool C) to win.  So as an example: North Central and Augustana are playing in Week 11 with a long-shot chance for Augustana to take the CCIW bid if they could pull an upset.  If they did manage it, Augustana takes the CCIW playoff bid and that pushes a 9-1 North Central into Pool C.  You want North Central to win, since NCC would be a very strong Pool C candidate while Augustana is a much less likely Pool C selection.

One you might not otherwise notice is Susquehanna vs. Lycoming.  Why?  Lycoming is only 4-5, but they are 4-1 in the Landmark Conference and would actually take the AQ with an upset over Susquehanna, which would push 9-1 Susquehanna into Pool C.  With a good SOS thanks to non-con wins over Bridgewater, Brockport and Cortland (at least 1 of whom and possibly 2 of whom will be regionally ranked when the dust settles), I think Susquehanna would be a near-lock to get a Pool C bid if this upset happened.  So you want to root for Susquehanna.

TL;DR - if an AQ is on the line between two teams where one has a much stronger Pool C resume than the other, you want that team to win (North Central, Susquehanna).  Otherwise, you want everyone else who is already on the bubble to lose.
#13
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
October 31, 2023, 12:37:41 PM
I'm also in agreement that a 9-1 Mount Union has a 100% chance of making the field, despite the fact that their 2023 on-paper blinded resume will look approximately equal to just about every other 9-1 league runnerup who didn't play a major OOC game (Muhlenberg, Carnegie Mellon, and the like).

Anyways, I'm still gonna mention the Mount-JCU game when I do this week's roundup of games with Pool C leverage and who you should root for in the other games if you're a fan of a potential Pool C hopeful...
#14
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
October 27, 2023, 12:14:43 PM
I actually disagree on that - to be honest I would be fine with a playoff that was literally ONLY the conference champions! But since this is what we got, I'll have fun with it. Just a few Pool C slots is probably ideal - your playoff dreams aren't totally over with a loss but now you get to white knuckle it and suddenly care about games far from your home because of the possible ripple effects.

John Carroll will be making an appearance in this space if I keep doing a weekly roundup of the big Pool C-impacting matchups.

There are basically two categories:

1. Games where an undefeated team who's likely to take their Pool A bid could possibly lose to someone that would take it instead. Here you always want the favorite to win - the fewer 9-1 Pool C teams the better...

2. Games where a team that's already in the Pool C mix with a loss or two could take another. Here you always want them to lose. Get all those 9-1's down to 8-2 and those 8-2's down to 7-3!
#15
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
October 26, 2023, 07:24:05 PM
As a fan of a (probably longshot) Pool C hopeful, a fun idea that's been rolling around my head is "if you're a fan of a Pool C hopeful, what games should you be following and who should you be rooting for?"

This week, a few games to keep an eye on are:

UMHB vs Hardin-Simmons: I think the outcome you should be rooting for here is Hardin Simmons to beat UMHB

Hypothetical UMHB Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 6-4, 0-4 vs. RRO's
Hypothetical HSU Pool C resume  (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 8-2, 1-2 (?) vs. RRO's

I can't imagine anybody is putting a four-loss UMHB team in the playoffs via Pool C (monster SoS and four "results" against RRO's aside...it would be four losses, two of them not especially close).  If UMHB wins, I think 8-2 HSU would be a strong candidate in Pool C because they'll have decent SoS, a likely 1-2 record vs RRO's and potentially one of the best wins anyone in the entire country will have (a road win vs. UW-La Crosse, potential WIAC champion).  If we see any 8-2's going in via Pool C, I think HSU is a strong candidate.  So if you're a fan of a potential Pool C team, I think you want HSU to beat UMHB, take the Pool A bid and likely eliminate the possibility of a Pool C team out of the ASC.

Johns Hopkins vs Muhlenberg: I think here you want to see Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg.

Hypothetical Johns Hopkins Pool C resume (assuming loss in this game and winning the rest): 9-1, 1-1 (or maybe 2-1) vs. RRO's
Hypothetical Muhlenberg Pool C resume: 9-1, 0-1 vs. RRO's

Both unbeaten, Hopkins has a strong OOC result with a win over likely LL champ Ithaca and NJAC contender Christopher Newport.  I suspect JHU will finish with higher SoS and potentially could have 2 wins vs. regionally ranked opponents if CNU runs the table (I am guessing that Ithaca still finishes the year in RR's even if they lose to Cortland in the season ender).  A possible 9-1 JHU with an RRO or two would be stronger candidate than 9-1 Muhlenberg, who I think is less likely to score any regionally ranked wins (I mean...maybe if Moravian shocks Susquehanna and runs the table to win the Landmark).  I think it's always dicey to hope for a Pool C if you're 9-1, 0-1 with middling SoS.  So here, I think you want JHU (the stronger of the hypothetical Pool C candidates) to win, take the Pool A and knock the relatively weaker Pool C candidate in Muhlenberg into Pool C.

Those are the two biggest ones that caught my attention.  A few others worth brief mention:

Endicott vs Husson: don't laugh!  The reasoning here is that Endicott would actually have a decent Pool C resume if they lost this game (8-2, but possibly 1-2 or 1-1 vs RRO's) and Husson (who is 5-2, albeit not against a particularly impressive schedule) went on the claim the CCC's Pool A bid.  Would "close loss vs. 9-1 Ithaca, big win vs. 8-2 Hardin-Simmons" be enough to sneak in even if they had a loss to Husson?  I don't know, but I think you'd rather see Endicott win and seal up the CCC so they're not part of the Pool C equation.  Anybody with a couple RRO results and a win is a possible Pool C candidate.  Root for Endicott to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.

Moravian vs Susquehanna: also a bit of a weird one for this list, but similar profile to the game above.  Moravian is still unbeaten in the Landmark and could take the conference if they win out, leaving 9-1 Susquehanna in Pool C.  Root for Susquehanna to win and take the Landmark Pool A bid.

Delaware Valley vs Stevenson: both teams currently 6-1.  Winner probably takes the conference.  Loser has a chance to finish 8-2.  I don't think either actually has a very strong Pool C resume to be honest so this probably doesn't matter.

Might be a few others, but I'm just calling out a few games where either a) a likely conference favorite is in a game against one of the few remaining teams that could overtake them for their Pool A bid, potentially knocking one of these teams into the Pool C mix or b) a conference title is (more or less) on the line and the loser is likely going into the Pool C mix.