Playoffs -- 2015

Started by Ralph Turner, November 17, 2015, 02:42:43 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: emma17 on November 17, 2015, 12:01:08 PM
Quote1. What's your pick for the most competitive first-round matchup? (Closest game)
2. Anyone think that a true "contender" will have a competitive* first-round game?
3. Predictions for the highest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points)
4. Predictions for the lowest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points)
5. Prediction for the largest margin of victory? (Game, winner, estimated MOV)

1.  Huntingdon/Hendrix
2.  UMHB and Wabash.  It wouldn't surprise me if UWW and Wheaton are challenged more than some may think.
3.  Huntingdon/Hendrix, Hendrix, 100 points
4.  St. John's/Dubuque, St. Johns, 28 points
5.  St. Thomas/La Verne, St. Thomas, 65 point mov.

I thought about this one a little bit.  Albion's offense is good enough that this could be interesting for awhile if they get some traction early.  If Wabash jumps to an early lead, I think that's going to get ugly pretty fast.  But if the Albion offense can score in the first quarter, and they can stick with what looks like a pretty nice run/pass balance on offense, I could definitely see that being 21-14 or thereabouts at halftime.

Huntingdon/Hendrix looks like an early popular pick (with only a few precincts reporting so far) for high score.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

emma17

Are the committee members paid for the selection process?

wally_wabash

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 17, 2015, 12:15:50 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 17, 2015, 12:01:08 PM
Quote1. What's your pick for the most competitive first-round matchup? (Closest game)
2. Anyone think that a true "contender" will have a competitive* first-round game?
3. Predictions for the highest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points)
4. Predictions for the lowest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points)
5. Prediction for the largest margin of victory? (Game, winner, estimated MOV)

1.  Huntingdon/Hendrix
2.  UMHB and Wabash.  It wouldn't surprise me if UWW and Wheaton are challenged more than some may think.
3.  Huntingdon/Hendrix, Hendrix, 100 points
4.  St. John's/Dubuque, St. Johns, 28 points
5.  St. Thomas/La Verne, St. Thomas, 65 point mov.

I thought about this one a little bit.  Albion's offense is good enough that this could be interesting for awhile if they get some traction early.  If Wabash jumps to an early lead, I think that's going to get ugly pretty fast.  But if the Albion offense can score in the first quarter, and they can stick with what looks like a pretty nice run/pass balance on offense, I could definitely see that being 21-14 or thereabouts at halftime.

Huntingdon/Hendrix looks like an early popular pick (with only a few precincts reporting so far) for high score.

I watched the fourth quarter of the Albion/Trine game last night to get a taste for what the Britons are doing.  There will be some challenges for the Wabash defense here, but I think what Albion does Wabash has seen in bits and pieces from other offenses throughout the year.  Albion relies on a lot of play action for big pass plays- this isn't a thing that many people can get done against Wabash.  1) Nobody has been able to establish a run with RBs against Wabash.  So you're play action isn't fooling anybody.  2) Those plays take time to get dudes downfield and Wabash generally doesn't give QBs time to stand around in the pocket and survey.  If Albion can figure out how to deal with either of those two things, they can find some points. 

On the other side...whoo.  That Briton defense is buh-rutal.  Raeburn is going to have to absolute field day calling plays against that unit.  As long as the offense executes and doesn't kill itself with penalties and turnovers (neither has been an issue in 2015), Wabash is going to score a lot.  That's just a really deficient unit for Albion. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

Albion may be wanting to join the ASC - traditional home of higher football than basketball scores!  8-)


bashbrother

Seriously,  the gamelan could be..  Zurek right..  Zurek left..   Repeat..   And Albions high flying offense will simply have a front row seat for most of the game..  This game lines up perfectly for how ER has constructed the offense... 
Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

Pat Coleman

Quote from: emma17 on November 17, 2015, 12:19:58 PM
Are the committee members paid for the selection process?

I don't believe so, aside from expenses and some swag.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

wesleydad

1. What's your pick for the most competitive first-round matchup? (Closest game) Hendrix/Huntingdon
2. Anyone think that a true "contender" will have a competitive* first-round game? NO
3. Predictions for the highest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points)Wesley/Framingham, Wesley, 90
4. Predictions for the lowest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points)Ohio Northern/Franklin, Franklin, 48
5. Prediction for the largest margin of victory? (Game, winner, estimated MOV)St. Thomas/LaVerne, St. Thomas, 56

emma17

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 17, 2015, 01:57:33 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 17, 2015, 12:19:58 PM
Are the committee members paid for the selection process?

I don't believe so, aside from expenses and some swag.

I was trying to get some perspective from their side.  I think it's entirely fine that D3 does a mock draft.  That said, I can see from their perspective it would be like someone doing my job for me, and then waiting to see if I would do the job as well as they did. 
The thing with Pool B and C is there are only 7 choices- so all of their work is based on picking 7 teams (not counting the bracketing).  And, there is published information as to how those 7 teams should be selected.  And, it can't be argued that there are people on the D3.com staff and board participants that the committee knows follows the sport as close- and likely closer than they do. 

They are in an odd situation.

wesleydad

It will be interesting to see how the triple option teams do this weekend.  I think Salisbury will be tough on Cortland, but they have played to their opposition lately.  Sloppy against CNU, pretty strong game against Wesley, then needed 21 points in the 4th quarter to win against Frostburg.  Could be a high scoring game.  W&L going to Thomas More is also interesting.  W&L go undefeated and get a tough first round game.  Thomas More looked good all year, but again they have to stop the triple option.  Should be a fun game to see.  I think one of the triple option teams wins, just not sure which one.  Something tells me the UMHB//HSU game is not going to be very close.  I think UMHB wins this one pretty easily.  If you are a top team you cant lose to ETBU the week after you beat UMHB no matter what the field condition was.  I will also be interested in how West New England does against Hopkins.  The ERFP debated almost all year as to if or where they should be ranked.  Eventually we had to move them up since everyone else kept losing.  Now I would be fine with them winning since that would mean Wesley gets another home game if they beat Framingham which I expect them to do.  I will be checking the scores this Saturday to see if there are any games that make me say, WOW, didn't see that.  Who is the dark horse this year?

FCGrizzliesGrad

1. What's your pick for the most competitive first-round matchup? (Closest game) ONU/Franklin (although I'd be fine if Franklin proves me wrong and wins big ;D)
2. Anyone think that a true "contender" will have a competitive* first-round game? UMHB but I also think Wheaton will be close in the first half and Whitewater could still be a contest in the 4th
3. Predictions for the highest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points) St Thomas over La Verne 83 points
4. Predictions for the lowest combined score in the first round? (Game, winner, estimated # points) UWW over St Norbert 38 points
5. Prediction for the largest margin of victory? (Game, winner, estimated MOV) Mount Union over St Lawrence by 59
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

art76

#25
Anybody else out there in play-off land wishing the NCAA would stagger play-off games that are within 100 miles of each other so fans could go see both if they wanted to? Up here in the Northland we have two games in the MIAC, both at Collegeville as the Johnnies are hosting Dubuque, and the Tommies are hosting La Verne. Both stadiums have lights, so a 12:00 and 5:00 pm start would allow us die-hard fans the opportunity to take in both games. Wheaton, Oshkosh and Whitewater are also close enough if you were fans of these teams. Might be some Eastern teams that also fall in this dilemma.
You don't have a soul. You are a soul.
You have a body. - C.S. Lewis

D3MAFAN

Is there a video, where I can watch the replay of the selection show?

wally_wabash

Quote from: art76 on November 18, 2015, 10:36:57 AM
Anybody else out there in play-off land wishing the NCAA would stagger play-off games that are within 100 miles of each other so fans could go see both if they wanted to? Up here in the Northland we have two games in the MIAC, both at Collegeville as the Johnnies are hosting Dubuque, and the Tommies are hosting La Verne. Both stadiums have lights, so a 12:00 and 5:00 pm start would allow us die-hard fans the opportunity to take in both games. Wheaton, Oshkosh and Whitewater are also close enough if you were fans of these teams. Might be some Eastern teams that also fall in this dilemma.

Yes, but playing that late may put a team on the bus at 9 or 10 pm (and who knows how long that bus ride might be) or if a team had to fly, playing that late might force an extra night of lodging, and I think we know how the NCAA would feel about that expense. 

I would be all for staggering the kickoffs of these 16 games into maybe 3 or 4 start times, but that runs the risk of costing more money and also wouldn't be ideal for the student-athletes with respect to travel. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 18, 2015, 11:11:53 AM
Quote from: art76 on November 18, 2015, 10:36:57 AM
Anybody else out there in play-off land wishing the NCAA would stagger play-off games that are within 100 miles of each other so fans could go see both if they wanted to? Up here in the Northland we have two games in the MIAC, both at Collegeville as the Johnnies are hosting Dubuque, and the Tommies are hosting La Verne. Both stadiums have lights, so a 12:00 and 5:00 pm start would allow us die-hard fans the opportunity to take in both games. Wheaton, Oshkosh and Whitewater are also close enough if you were fans of these teams. Might be some Eastern teams that also fall in this dilemma.

Yes, but playing that late may put a team on the bus at 9 or 10 pm (and who knows how long that bus ride might be) or if a team had to fly, playing that late might force an extra night of lodging, and I think we know how the NCAA would feel about that expense. 

I would be all for staggering the kickoffs of these 16 games into maybe 3 or 4 start times, but that runs the risk of costing more money and also wouldn't be ideal for the student-athletes with respect to travel.

Big key here.  D3 isn't D1; the student-athletes should come first in this decision-making.  D1 schools can play games whenever they can get on TV because it brings in extra revenue, justifying the additional inconvenience to the athletes (sure, we'll play a Tuesday night game!  Kids, you'll have to skip all of your Tuesday classes to travel there, and we'll get home at 3 AM on Wednesday morning, so you might as well plan on skipping Wednesday's classes too). 

Anyways, staggering the start times won't significantly increase revenue from ticket sales (with all due respect, art, how many guys like you, emma, wally etc exist that would get in a car and drive 50+ miles from a noon game to a 5 PM game just to watch two Division III playoff games, one of which did not involve a team that they root for/played for/have a son playing for?) so I don't think the additional burden on the athletes - as wally said, the late kickoff means that those teams are either busing/flying and getting home at some wacko time like 4 AM, or staying an extra night on the NCAA's dime (not going to happen) - can really be justified.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

if we were worried about student athlete health then the games would start at 12 of the team further West. Linfield having to play at 9 am their time at Widener is much different than Widener having to start at 3 pm. No one wants to start a football game at 9 am as body clocks aren't ready for it. The NCAA could easily make the change by having all playoff games start at 3 pm Eastern. Of course you'd need lights to host which might be an issue for some schools.