Liberty League

Started by Pat Cummings, March 01, 2005, 07:38:14 PM

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RalphyReinbeck

Hi stlawus. I think you're dwelling on the 3s this season, and the zone defense isn't the only story for the Saints. Yes, they've given up a lot of 3s. But look at tonight's box score: SLU turned the ball over 20 times to Clarkson's 7. That's 13 extra possessions in a three-point game! (And 12 total since SLU had one more OREB than Clarkson.) Through 7 games, the biggest problems for SLU are their turnovers, their negative OREB margin, and their FT shooting. The truth is even after tonight, the Saints shoot it at a better clip than their opponents, both from 2FG and 3FG (and thus defend at a better rate, too). But they've taken *way* fewer total shots because they're getting out-rebounded--those early injuries hurt--and they're turning the ball over. Between OREBs and TOs, they've given their opponents 76 (!) extra possessions through seven games. They've shot worse from the FT line, too. Against Plattsburgh, they missed 9 FTs and lost by 5. Ouch.

Not sure what the reasons are, but after two months of practice, the Saints' staff has chosen zone for a reason. Isn't it possible they'd have a harder time matching up? I do think the 3 has become so integral to the game that most teams can knock down a bunch on any given night; in fact tonight, if Clarkson had made 13, the Saints would have won. But would 13 be an acceptable number? You claim that an average of 13 is too high. The problem isn't only the 3s but rather the extra possessions that lead to the 3s. 

Back in 2016-2017, when the Saints won 20 games, six of those wins came in games where they gave up 10 or more 3s to the opponent. Across those six games, they committed 15 fewer turnovers while surrendering 12 extra offensive rebounds. They won all six games with only three extra possessions. This season, through seven games, they've allowed 76 extra possessions and lost six of those games. Sounds about right. And to be honest, I don't remember if that group a few years back played mostly zone or man. But they were solid four-year players who took care of the ball on offense and could probably defend well in either system. 

I think we're seeing a young team trying to find its way. Every single minute of the season has been played by FR, SO, or JR players. They've been in six of seven games, and after the Oswego win, there was no doubt these guys can both play well and grind with good teams. Maybe they don't need to do it differently; maybe they just need to do it better. We'll see.

Go Saints!

stlawus

#2491
You make good points, I know the turnovers are really hurting them, but these threes just drive me nuts, especially when I look at the box scores of our opponents in their next games when they shoot at or below 20% from three (yes the zone will inflate numbers but still).  It is indeed a young team, and I say it every game that I am still reserving full judgment until the full team is available.  Karera would be extremely useful out on the wing defending the 3, and Hoffman will be able to alter a lot more shots in the center of the zone.  Jeffrey has played well, but Hoffman is a tree with a very long wingspan.   I also think Karera is the only one actually injured, I'm starting to think the other 3 players are suspended for the first semester.

UfanBill

Union apparently stayed on the bus early against Hobart. The Dutchmen fell behind right from the tap and shot a dismal 15/55, 27.3%  :o for the game in losing 75-53. The only possible positive...Mike Concannon returned to the line-up.
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UfanBill

Union went south, Daytona Beach 12/28,29, for games against Lycoming and Mt. Union and poor shooting again was the biggest problem. Against Lycoming the Dutchmen shot only 26%, 18/69 and a dismal 19.4%,6/31 from behind the arc in a 64-54 loss.
The next day they shot better, 40.4%, but still not good enough in a 78-65 loss to Mt. Union. A home game against always strong Williams is next before getting into the LL schedule. Since shooting is the supposed strength of this team there must be improvement for the Dutchmen to contend for a LL post season spot.
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stlawus

Quote from: UfanBill on December 30, 2019, 03:51:55 PM
Union went south, Daytona Beach 12/28,29, for games against Lycoming and Mt. Union and poor shooting again was the biggest problem. Against Lycoming the Dutchmen shot only 26%, 18/69 and a dismal 19.4%,6/31 from behind the arc in a 64-54 loss.
The next day they shot better, 40.4%, but still not good enough in a 78-65 loss to Mt. Union. A home game against always strong Williams is next before getting into the LL schedule. Since shooting is the supposed strength of this team there must be improvement for the Dutchmen to contend for a LL post season spot.

How convenient Union goes cold in all of the games following their shooting performance against SLU >:(   

In all seriousness Union should still be fine as far as league play goes. 

stlawus

Ithaca gets bailed out by 3 point shooting to win a close game against a fairly weak Moravian.   

Hobart is clear and away the top team right now.  We'll really know where they stand after playing Ursinus today, who took the #1 team right down the wire last month. 

jmcozenlaw

Quote from: stlawus on January 04, 2020, 06:36:46 PM
Ithaca gets bailed out by 3 point shooting to win a close game against a fairly weak Moravian.   

Hobart is clear and away the top team right now.  We'll really know where they stand after playing Ursinus today, who took the #1 team right down the wire last month.

Thompson goes off for 36 against a much bigger and far more athletic Montclair State team. Dagg!!!!!!!

stlawus

#2497
In the only LL action of the night SLU beats Elmira 74-71 on the road.   Closed out the final 10 minutes with a 23-7 run.   Very nice game from Chris Jeffrey.   Key block late in the game and a huge offensive rebound on a missed FT that led to a layup.   Hicks shoots poorly but still ends up with 16/11/7.

Oline89

LL BBall fans, I have way more knowledge of the D3 football world than roundball, can someone help me out on why so little love shown to LL teams in the national poll?  Hobart 9-1, 3-0 with win over Rochester, received only 10 total votes? 

stlawus

Rochester is not ranked, and the rest of the teams play in conferences much stronger than the LL. The CCIW, WIAC, NESCAC etc all have more quality teams and also play equally or harder OOC schedules.  Hobart is the top LL team but it is only comparable to the 3rd or 4th best team in the NESCAC.

thebear

Hobart should be ranked by all objective criteria.

In the two computer rankings they are 15th http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html#predictions, and 21st https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/ncaa-d3/ratings

I think their SID needs to do a bit more to get the word on to the voters.

Their only loss is a 1 pointer at #60 Brockport, who the current favorite in the SUNYAC. 
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Pat Coleman

Quote from: thebear on January 08, 2020, 10:53:34 AM
I think their SID needs to do a bit more to get the word on to the voters.

In all honesty, this has basically no impact on voters. The resume speaks for itself. Give it time and if the present trend continues, I'm sure voters will pick up on it. They are at least getting noticed.
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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Hobart's resume is more than a win over Rochester and what "computer ratings" say.

They also have a loss to Brockport. As a voter, I guess I should vote for Brockport before Hobart ... but then I need to consider Rochester ... and then ... forget it, I give up. (FYI - I voted for Rochester because of their result against Swarthmore and Hobart's result v Rochester was 11/26 ... a lot has changed since then. I do have Hobart on my radar, as Pat knows full well.)

Also, the schedule isn't all that compared to a lot of teams in the Top 25.

NYU (6-4) - nothing to gain here
Brockport (7-2) - loss as mentioned
Baldwin Wallace (7-4) - under-performing unfortunately
Rochester (9-2) - good win for Hobart
SJF (5-6) - not helping
Skidmore (3-7) - really not helping
Bard (0-9) - conference game that hurts
Union (5-3) - not telling anyone much
Ursinus (7-4) - could be a good win, but need to see more from Bears
Catholic (4-8) - first year head coach with a program that has faltered of late

53-49 overall opponent's record ... that's just okay. Not sure why the computers love them (other than data from last year, D1 games that can't be eliminated, etc.).

Again, I have Hobart on my radar, but I decided to wait to see how they do against RIT, Ithaca, and RPI first. Conference won't help them a ton, but those games will help voters understand what Hobart really is as a program.

And Pat is right ... SIDs "lobbying" for their teams isn't exactly the best way to tackle it. I know Hobart's SID pretty well and he wouldn't do that anyway (and the list is private as well except for those of us who reveal our ballots). However, when an SID lobbies me for their team ... I take it with a grain of salt. If they lobby too often, it can actually be a deterrent personally.
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d3d3d3

The league just isn't great this year, something all of us have been saying from the start. All of the best players graduated or transferred. And even when the league is "great," it usually means one or two teams slide into the poll in the 18-25 range. Here are the recent results of the LL teams in the NCAA Tournament:

2019: Skidmore lost to MIT first round
2018: Union beat NJCU, lost to Plattsburgh second round
2017: Union beat Wesleyan, lost to Rochester second round
Skidmore beat NJCU, lost to Babson second round
SLU lost to St. John Fisher first round
2016: Skidmore beat F&M, lost to Tufts second round
2015: Skidmore beat Wesleyan, lost to Johns Hopkins second round
2014: Hobart beat Scranton, lost to Morrisville State second round
2013: Hobart lost to RIC first round

This may help explain why, at 9-1, the computers like Hobart but the voters not so much.

stlawus

I think SLU in 2009 is the last LL sweet 16 appearance.