South Region Rankings and Playoffs

Started by Ralph Turner, February 01, 2009, 04:08:59 PM

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FlightofthePetrel

Oglethorpe hangs on against Centre 79-75 to earn a split in this weekends games.  Next up the Conference Tournament!

Sorry to Ralph and all the South region fans rooting against us ;)  the girls want it to much this year.

golden_dome

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 22, 2009, 04:01:58 PM
Chris MC's OWP .495; OOWP .498 thru all games.

McMurry's is .513 and .498 before the SU game.

The Strength of Schedule calculation that D3hoops.com has figured (and it may not be an official statistic) is 226 for MC and 173 for McM (without the SU game.)

I don't know how those numbers are being used.  I hope that that will be covered in a Hoopsville interview.  :)


Without looking at the regional records of each opponent, I would guess that MC will be slightly above .500 in OWP and McMurry below .500 when the final numbers are tallied. That is off the D3hoops numbers for strength of schedule. If that is the case, then I don't see McMurry staying ahead of MC. It could be very important if they both have similiar performances in the ASC tourney and are competing for a pool C bid.

Having Schreiner on the schedule twice really hurts the schedule numbers for the LIB.

nash

Ralph,
The selection criteria covers tournament selection, there isn't anything listed about regional ranking criteria.  It just says the committee will release regional rankings 3 times and I am sure the committee draws upon the regional advisors to rank the teams.  The regional rankings only have six slots so 7th doesn't count.  
As for as strength of schedule looking at the d3hoops table most of MC's opponents had higher str of sch than MC so how did we end up lower when we beat most of them?

Ralph Turner

Quote from: nash on February 22, 2009, 05:05:41 PM
Ralph,
The selection criteria covers tournament selection, there isn't anything listed about regional ranking criteria.  It just says the committee will release regional rankings 3 times and I am sure the committee draws upon the regional advisors to rank the teams.  The regional rankings only have six slots so 7th doesn't count.  
As for as strength of schedule looking at the d3hoops table most of MC's opponents had higher str of sch than MC so how did we end up lower when we beat most of them?
Good evening, nash.

The regional rankings are done offline for a couple of times and then they are published by these criteria three times.  (I think that Coach Jones was on the committee about a decade ago.  This is old hat to the coaches who have been around for a while.  All of this is in the Handbook, with references to other documents.  Yes, it is written in NCAA-ese, but it happens like this for every team sport in every season.)

Yes, I have been told and I have heard in interviews on Hoopsville over the last four-five years that they have teams that are "off the table" if the supply of ranked teams is exhausted.

Millsaps and Piedmont played some weak teams.  It seems that the loser of the game ends up with the higher strength of schedule. 

Let's see where MC ends up this Wednesday.

If I were a betting man, I would say that UTD gets a Pool C bid if they win in round one and lose to HSU in the semis.  I think that McMurry, MissColl, HSU and HPU earn a Pool C bid if they make it to the finals.  Yes, MissColl, HSU and HPU are off the table, but they get quality wins by getting to the finals.  I think we get two bids, an "A" and a "C", maybe a "C" plus UTD as a "C".

HPU has 2 good wins over Colorado College, the SCAC #2 seed.
McMurry is regionally ranked right now.
HSU beat non-region Gettysburg and Babson.

Those may be secondary criteria, but let's watch this.

(Pabegg said that he would run the numbers for the women.)

golden_dome

#49
Ralph,
   Here's my guess for this week's regional rankings. I could be off because last week's rankings still don't make a lot of sense to me after looking over the numbers on D3hoops.

School  (Regional Record)
1. Oglethorpe (17-3) They have a much higher OWP than any other ranked teams.
2. Greensboro (22-0) Poor OWP keeps them in #2.
3. Randolph-Macon (17-4)  Very good OWP keeps them ahead of UTD and MC, but only slightly.
4. UT-Dallas (21-3)  Very close to MC, but record against regional ranked opponents is better.
5. MS College (21-3) Better record and better OWP than Roanoke and McMurry.
6. Roanoke (20-3) They have a similiar OWP to McMurry, and better record.

I think RMU, UTD and MC are al very close, but with the added emphasis on OWP RMC overcomes their much poorer regional record.

MC and UTD are splitting hairs with the same regional record, similiar OWP and a split this year. UTD is 1-0 against regional ranked opponents while MC is 1-2.

Roanoke loses out to UTD and MC because of one less win and lower OWP.

McMurry could edge out Roanoke if their OWP ends up high enough to offset the extra loss,  but it will be close.

EDITED: RMC rather than RMU. Thanks for the heads up hoopstermom.

hoopstermom


QuoteI think RMU, UTD and MC are al very close, but with the added emphasis on OWP RMU overcomes their much poorer regional record.

Mr. Brooks -  it's RMC not RMU

For some reason this year, this seems to be a reoccurring misnomer.  Is there something RMC or other interested posters should know    :)

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Chris Brooks on February 23, 2009, 11:36:43 PM
Ralph,
   Here's my guess for this week's regional rankings. I could be off because last week's rankings still don't make a lot of sense to me after looking over the numbers on D3hoops.

School  (Regional Record)
1. Oglethorpe (17-3) They have a much higher OWP than any other ranked teams.
2. Greensboro (22-0) Poor OWP keeps them in #2.
3. Randolph-Macon (17-4)  Very good OWP keeps them ahead of UTD and MC, but only slightly.
4. UT-Dallas (21-3)  Very close to MC, but record against regional ranked opponents is better.
5. MS College (21-3) Better record and better OWP than Roanoke and McMurry.
6. Roanoke (20-3) They have a similiar OWP to McMurry, and better record.

I think RMU, UTD and MC are al very close, but with the added emphasis on OWP RMU overcomes their much poorer regional record.

MC and UTD are splitting hairs with the same regional record, similiar OWP and a split this year. UTD is 1-0 against regional ranked opponents while MC is 1-2.

Roanoke loses out to UTD and MC because of one less win and lower OWP.

McMurry could edge out Roanoke if their OWP ends up high enough to offset the extra loss,  but it will be close.
Okay, we can see if that is what the rankings look like on Wednesday.

The final (and undisclosed) regional ranking that is done on Sunday will determine the candidates for the Pool C bids.

By the way that the tourney is seeded,  I think that MC, McM and HPU make the NCAA tourney, if they make the ASC Finals.  UT-Tyler must run the table.

The tourney games settle the head-to-head questions. I think that we get a Pool A and one Pool C bid.  I hope for the second Pool C bid.

ASC Women's Bracket

golden_dome

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 24, 2009, 10:10:47 AM
Quote from: Chris Brooks on February 23, 2009, 11:36:43 PM
Ralph,
   Here's my guess for this week's regional rankings. I could be off because last week's rankings still don't make a lot of sense to me after looking over the numbers on D3hoops.

School  (Regional Record)
1. Oglethorpe (17-3) They have a much higher OWP than any other ranked teams.
2. Greensboro (22-0) Poor OWP keeps them in #2.
3. Randolph-Macon (17-4)  Very good OWP keeps them ahead of UTD and MC, but only slightly.
4. UT-Dallas (21-3)  Very close to MC, but record against regional ranked opponents is better.
5. MS College (21-3) Better record and better OWP than Roanoke and McMurry.
6. Roanoke (20-3) They have a similiar OWP to McMurry, and better record.

I think RMU, UTD and MC are al very close, but with the added emphasis on OWP RMU overcomes their much poorer regional record.

MC and UTD are splitting hairs with the same regional record, similiar OWP and a split this year. UTD is 1-0 against regional ranked opponents while MC is 1-2.

Roanoke loses out to UTD and MC because of one less win and lower OWP.

McMurry could edge out Roanoke if their OWP ends up high enough to offset the extra loss,  but it will be close.
Okay, we can see if that is what the rankings look like on Wednesday.

The final (and undisclosed) regional ranking that is done on Sunday will determine the candidates for the Pool C bids.

By the way that the tourney is seeded,  I think that MC, McM and HPU make the NCAA tourney, if they make the ASC Finals.  UT-Tyler must run the table.

The tourney games settle the head-to-head questions. I think that we get a Pool A and one Pool C bid.  I hope for the second Pool C bid.

ASC Women's Bracket

Ralph,
  I wish pabegg had numbers for the women like we do the men, so we can see how things are stacking up. Regardless how the regional rankings come out this week, I think UTD, MC, McMurry, HSU and HPU are all in the same boat. The teams who have the best ASC tournament will get into the NCAA Tourney, and I think all five could still get a pool C with a run to the title game, and some could get in with one more win.

SabineBBall

It appears ASC will never get more teams in the tourney with the current East/West format and lack of being able to play more outside conference in region games.

It appears from all the talk we should just do away with the regular season and just have a tourney at the end of the year.  I never understood it in D1 selection and it looks like it is much worse in D3 especially for the ASC.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: SabineBBall on February 24, 2009, 05:07:43 PM
It appears ASC will never get more teams in the tourney with the current East/West format and lack of being able to play more outside conference in region games.

It appears from all the talk we should just do away with the regular season and just have a tourney at the end of the year.  I never understood it in D1 selection and it looks like it is much worse in D3 especially for the ASC.

If we can use the Massey Ratings MOV as a "rough proxy" for the NCAA's rankings, you can see that the top half of the ASC is a strong conference.  If the ASC were actually 2 conferences then the top half would be great and bottom half would be mediocre at best.

Instead, we are constrained by geography and live with it.

Thru Sunday, Massey's MOV has us listed this way out of 439 schools:

#11 ) Miss Coll
#28 ) McM
#30 ) HPU
#33 ) HSU
#35 ) UTD
#45 ) LaColl
#64 ) UT-Tyler
#76 ) UMHB

We got three bids in 2006, when HSU was "close to the last" Pool C team selected, and they go to the Final Four.


golden_dome

New regional rankings

South Region
1. Oglethorpe 17-3 22-3
2. Greensboro 23-0 24-1
3. Texas-Dallas 21-3 21-4
4. Mississippi Col. 21-3 22-3
5. Roanoke 20-3 22-3
6. Randolph-Macon 17-4 20-5

A little surprised that Randolph-Macon is that low, maybe their OWP was not as strong as I thought it was.

McMurry would have been in as well but their final game against a 1-23 Schreiner team  was a killer for their OWP. If you take the two games against Schreiner off their schedule, their OWP changes from around .490 to somewhere around .540. That's a huge difference in the current system, probably equivalent to a couple extra losses in the regional record.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Chris Brooks on February 25, 2009, 07:36:11 PM
New regional rankings

South Region
1. Oglethorpe 17-3 22-3
2. Greensboro 23-0 24-1
3. Texas-Dallas 21-3 21-4
4. Mississippi Col. 21-3 22-3
5. Roanoke 20-3 22-3
6. Randolph-Macon 17-4 20-5

A little surprised that Randolph-Macon is that low, maybe their OWP was not as strong as I thought it was.

McMurry would have been in as well but their final game against a 1-23 Schreiner team  was a killer for their OWP. If you take the two games against Schreiner off their schedule, their OWP changes from around .490 to somewhere around .540. That's a huge difference in the current system, probably equivalent to a couple extra losses in the regional record.
Or we split the conference into two conferences and then selectively schedule inter-conference games.  McMurry could avoid the real downers like UOzarks 5-20 overall, 4-19 in region (.174) and LeTU 5-19 overall, 5-16 in-region (.238) and replace those non-conference games with some .500 schools or better that are in-region.

ARGGGGHHHHHH!  Geography and the paucity of D3 schools in the area. 

UT-Dallas and Mississippi College suffered from that Schreiner-TLU road trip.  Schreiner was 1-24 overall, 1-23 (.041) and TLU 7-19 / 5-16 (.238); or game against SRSU 3-21 overall / 3-18 in-region (.143).

My hope is that the committee will understand the mandated 20/21 rules that we have in the ASC.

After the tournaments this weekend, the South Regional should look like this.

Oglethorpe SCAC A/C (Must beat DePauw for the sake of us ASC fans.)
Greensboro USAC A (Should win the USA South.)
UTD ASC  A/C
Miss Coll ASC  A/C
Roanoke ODAC A/C
RMC  ODAC A/C.

Three and maybe four teams should be off the table with Pool A bids.

The good thing about this that the winner of the ASC tourney will likely host a first round series. (I'll bet that McMurry, HSU and HPU are just off the table.  Please remember that the men rank the Top 15% of the eligible teams; the women the Top 6.)

HSU's Coach Briggs is the rep from the ASC to the South Region Evaluation Committee.

SabineBBall

I am new at this but if their rankings mean anything and looking at records it appears HPU and HSU both have to win the tourney to get in (both have 5 in region loses but if MCM loses early they will have 5 too).  Unless UTD loses first round they should be a solid C depending on how Mc and McM do 1st round.  Out of MC and McM one of them (if they make the semi's) will be out in the semi-finals and be the bubble team for 3 ASC team to get in.  If MC loses in 1st round to HPU they are going to be in trouble it appears unless there are more upsets.  Of course if HPU makes the finals they might get the defending champion wildcard nod lol.  Going to be interesting.  I think ASC needs minimual upsets elsewhere to get 3 teams in.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: SabineBBall on February 25, 2009, 08:37:53 PM
I am new at this but if their rankings mean anything and looking at records it appears HPU and HSU both have to win the tourney to get in (both have 5 in region loses but if MCM loses early they will have 5 too).  Unless UTD loses first round they should be a solid C depending on how Mc and McM do 1st round.  Out of MC and McM one of them (if they make the semi's) will be out in the semi-finals and be the bubble team for 3 ASC team to get in.  If MC loses in 1st round to HPU they are going to be in trouble it appears unless there are more upsets.  Of course if HPU makes the finals they might get the defending champion wildcard nod lol.  Going to be interesting.  I think ASC needs minimal upsets elsewhere to get 3 teams in.
I agree.

I think that the two ASC finalists make the NCAA's.

Getting a second Pool C bid will be interesting.

Ralph Turner

New regional rankings

South Region
1. Oglethorpe 17-3 22-3  Won QF
2. Greensboro 23-0 24-1   Lost in Finals to CNU
3. Texas-Dallas 21-3 21-4  Lost in the QF's
4. Mississippi Col. 21-3 22-3  Lost in the QF's
5. Roanoke 20-3 22-3   Lost to Bridgewater in Semis
6. Randolph-Macon 17-4 20-5  Won QF


(Trinity beat DePauw in SCAC Semi's).