Author Topic: South Region Fan Poll  (Read 200118 times)

Offline BerryCollegeFan

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1380 on: November 13, 2017, 12:56:06 pm »
thanks for the updates.  it really helps to see how the decisions are made and how teams position themselves for success.

Offline ADL70

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1381 on: November 14, 2017, 05:46:50 pm »
My final shot at the South Region Advisory Committee Rankings:

South Region   
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor 10-0 (2-0 RRO, HSU and Linfield) SOS 41
2. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 (0-1 RRO, UMHB) SOS 120
3. Berry 10-0 (1-0 RRO, Centre) SOS 109
4. Case Western Reserve 10-0 (0-0 RRO), SOS 220
5. Washington & Jefferson 10-0 (0-0 RRO), SOS 231
6. Johns Hopkins 9-1 (2-0 RRO, F&M and W&L), SOS 30
7. Franklin & Marshall 9-1 (0-1 RRO, JHU) SOS 72
8. Centre 9-1 (0-1 RRO, Berry) SOS 180
9. Huntingdon 8-1 (0-0 RRO) SOS 196
10. Washington and Lee 8-2  (0-1 RRO, JHU) SOS 42 -- SOS jump just gets them in the door

Outside Looking In:
Hendrix 7-2, (0-2 RRO), SOS 48 -- a dropping SOS and a lower win percentage not enough to stay in the rankings over W&L. Might cost Centre a spot dropping below F&M, but I don't see how that matters. Centre's SOS is a non-starter for an at-large at this point if F&M gets off the table.

Major areas the committee might differ from me? Putting W&J over Case, though I don't see why they would do that. Case has the SOS advantage, as sad as both are, and a better point differential overall against all common opponents. I'm not sure what argument would get W&J above Case, other than that's where they were going in to a week where they cruised and Case had to fight it out with a difficult opponent.


Thanks for recognizing that CWRU should be ahead of W&J, unlike the committee and d3Top25.  I sure hope W&J's pounding of Waynseburg wasn't a deciding factor. CWRU had a tough game with CMU, but so did W&J, winning by same margin. Meanwhile W&J had a tough time with Westminster, wining by 1 in OT.  Whi CWRU beat Westminster handily 41-10
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Offline Bob.Gregg

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1382 on: November 14, 2017, 06:11:35 pm »
Thanks for recognizing that CWRU should be ahead of W&J, unlike the committee and d3Top25.  I sure hope W&J's pounding of Waynseburg wasn't a deciding factor. CWRU had a tough game with CMU, but so did W&J, winning by same margin. Meanwhile W&J had a tough time with Westminster, wining by 1 in OT.  Whi CWRU beat Westminster handily 41-10
It wasn't.  W&J was ahead of CWRU in each of the regional rankings, 2 spots up in the first set.  Both teams had a tough match-up with CMU.  CWRU is fortunate that one young man lost his cool for one split second, or CWRU wouldn't even be IN the tournament. 

Good luck to the Spartans.  The really good news is that every PAC team will play every other PAC team next year.
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Offline WashJeff68

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1383 on: November 14, 2017, 07:53:44 pm »
From Bob:

“The really good news is that every PAC team will play every other PAC team next year.”



Amen.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1384 on: November 14, 2017, 08:30:10 pm »
South Region Fan Poll Week #11

1)  UMHB50         1,1,1,1,1..
2)  HSU452,2,2,2,2..
3)  W&J  383,3,3,4,4..
4)  CWRU    353,4,4,4,5..
5)  Berry   283,5,5,6,7..
.....
6)  JHU  235,5,6,6,6..
7)  Centre                   157,7,7,8,x..
8)  F&M          126,7,10,10,10..
9)  Huntingdon       108,8,8,10,x..
10)  W&L         78,9,9,x,x..
. ....
RV  ETBU 39,10,x,x,x..
RV  Muhlenberg         29,x,x,x,x..
RV  Westminster   29,x,x,x,x..
. ....
. ....

Corrections are always appreciated.

Thanks to hasanova, jknezek, roocru and Scots13

Offline ADL70

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1385 on: November 14, 2017, 08:50:11 pm »
Thanks for recognizing that CWRU should be ahead of W&J, unlike the committee and d3Top25.  I sure hope W&J's pounding of Waynseburg wasn't a deciding factor. CWRU had a tough game with CMU, but so did W&J, winning by same margin. Meanwhile W&J had a tough time with Westminster, wining by 1 in OT.  Whi CWRU beat Westminster handily 41-10
It wasn't.  W&J was ahead of CWRU in each of the regional rankings, 2 spots up in the first set.  Both teams had a tough match-up with CMU.  CWRU is fortunate that one young man lost his cool for one split second, or CWRU wouldn't even be IN the tournament. 

Good luck to the Spartans.  The really good news is that every PAC team will play every other PAC team next year.

But the SoS flipped after week 11.  W&J fortunate to escape Westminster's try for two.
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Offline BerryCollegeFan

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1386 on: November 15, 2017, 01:23:08 pm »
From Bob:

“The really good news is that every PAC team will play every other PAC team next year.”

Amen.
what caused the change? 

Offline ADL70

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1387 on: November 15, 2017, 01:34:55 pm »
Thomas More leaves PAC next season and UAA football ceases to exist.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1388 on: November 15, 2017, 02:15:20 pm »
Thanks for recognizing that CWRU should be ahead of W&J, unlike the committee and d3Top25.  I sure hope W&J's pounding of Waynseburg wasn't a deciding factor. CWRU had a tough game with CMU, but so did W&J, winning by same margin. Meanwhile W&J had a tough time with Westminster, wining by 1 in OT.  Whi CWRU beat Westminster handily 41-10
It wasn't.  W&J was ahead of CWRU in each of the regional rankings, 2 spots up in the first set.  Both teams had a tough match-up with CMU.  CWRU is fortunate that one young man lost his cool for one split second, or CWRU wouldn't even be IN the tournament. 

Good luck to the Spartans.  The really good news is that every PAC team will play every other PAC team next year.

But the SoS flipped after week 11.  W&J fortunate to escape Westminster's try for two.

CWRU had SOS and common opponent advantages all over the place, but remained behind W&J.  ITH's interview with chair seemed to unearth a couple of things:
1- They weren't super interested in what the SOS was selling (they're not wrong in questioning exactly what that thing is actually a measure of, but for the moment it is a primary criteria and I think it's kind of lame to dismiss it in the way they seem to have done)
2- They weren't really interested in parsing results through score margins. 

So these things that should have placed CWRU ahead of W&J didn't because this group just didn't pay attention to those things (which are primary criteria, btw) OR just didn't put in that much effort.  That's a criticism that I hate to lob because I think selecting, seeding, and bracketing this tournament is hard work, but part of this year's process feels like it was really mailed in. 

I don't know if CWRU should have played at home this week or not, but they probably should have been ranked higher than W&J. 
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1389 on: December 18, 2017, 06:05:57 pm »
Final South Region Fan Poll

1)  UMHB50         1,1,1,1,1..
2)  CWRU402,3,3,3,4..
3)  HSU 382,2,3,4,6..
4)  W&J   362,3,4,5,5..
5)  Berry   342,4,5,5,5..
.....
6)  JHU  274,6,6,6,6..
7)  W&L                   167,7,8,8,9..
8T)  Centre          117,7,9,10,x..
8T)  F&M         117,8,9,9,x..
10)  Huntingdon       88,8,10,10,x..
. ....
RV  ETBU 39,10,x,x,x..
RV  Muhlenberg         110,x,x,x,x..
. ....
. ....

Corrections are always appreciated.

Thanks to hasanova, jknezek, roocru and Scots13

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1390 on: December 18, 2017, 06:18:26 pm »
Thanks to hasanova, jknezek, roocru and Scots13.  These guys did a great job of getting ballots back to me in a timely fashion. With predictable regularity, they confided their thoughts behind the balloting, which thoughts made excellent sense.  There was no detectable "homer-ism". They consistently showed an understanding of the South Region in their thoughts and votes.

(With only 5 consistent ballots, I want fans to be able to view changes throughout the season. Some regional polls may have more ballots, but they may not always be the same group of voters. I have preferred to keep the same format of the Poll that was begun by Matt Barnhart more than 15 years ago.)

I hope that the current group of guys will return next season.

Offline Scots13

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1391 on: December 19, 2017, 08:17:36 am »
Not too surprised at the spread of teams getting #2 votes.  UMHB was definitely the top dog in the South Region again this year, but there were 4-5 after them that could beat one another on any given Saturday. Made for exciting times in polling this year.

The ASC, PAC and SAA did a fine job this year of making the South competitive. Here's to 2018 and having the USAC and ODAC jump into the mix.  Huntingdon had a good showing against Berry, a team that still shocks me on how well they played all year. W&L had the OT loss to JHU and the stumble at E&H, but had a really, really good showing in Alliance 5 weeks ago. That being said, both conferences need more than 1 school consistently in the fight for a spot on the ballot each week.
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Offline GillCJ1

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1392 on: December 19, 2017, 09:02:14 am »
Thanks to you all for your South Region contributions.  It's always interesting to see what the fan poll looks like at the beginning and the end of the season.  Absolutely agree with Scots13 about teams 2-5 beating each other up.

Looking forward to your efforts in 2018.
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Offline jknezek

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1393 on: December 19, 2017, 09:12:36 am »
Thanks Ralph Turner for once again organizing and running the poll. It's a bit of fun for me every season. At some point today I'll put up the preseason vs end of season just so we can see how we did.

Offline jknezek

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1394 on: December 19, 2017, 09:20:47 am »
Preseason:

1)  UMHB   50            1,1,1,1,1   .   .
2)  HSU   43   2,2,2,3,3   .   .
3)  JHU   40   2,3,3,3,4   .   .
4)  Thomas More          36   2,4,4,4,6   .   .
5)  CWRU   31   4,5,5,5,5   .   .
.   .   .   .   .
6)  W&J   21   5,6,6,7,10   .   .
7)  Muhlenberg   19   6,6,7,7,10   .   .
8)  Huntingdon   15   8,8,8,8,8   .   .
9T) Berry   6   7,10,10,x,x   .   .
9T) Westminster PA   6   7,9,x,x,x   .   .
.   .   .   .   .
RV  Centre   4   9,9,x,x,x   .   .
RV  Carnegie-Mellon   2   9,x,x,x,x   .   .
RV  Maryville   2   9,x,x,x,x   .   .
RV  Emory & Henry   1   10,x,x,x,x   .   .


So, we wiffed badly on TMC. Not surprising. They've been competitive for a long time and I don't think anyone saw this season coming. I believe I'm the 2, so I wiffed worst of all on them. I figured in their last year in the PAC they would have a chip on their shoulder. 3 of 4 in the RV section didn't make the final poll, with M'Ville and E&H being bad misses. CMU probably not so much. I think all their losses came to teams in or around the final poll. Hard to argue with the bottom 4 teams in the preseason poll. Only Westminster didn't squeeze through and I think they proved their quality, just not quite enough to beat a bunch of teams that also finished in the poll. W&L, F&M, and ETBU clearly entered the pollster's sphere due to hard work. The Generals have been hanging around the bottom half of the poll off and on for years and I think some of us might have had them in the preseason poll if they hadn't opened with JHU. F&M earned their way to some recognition and ETBU as a competitive third team in the ASC is always going to draw some interest.

Overall, other than TMC, I'd say the preseason and the season ending polls were pretty darn good. Well done guys.