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Messages - CardsFan

#1
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2024 NCAA Tournament
February 27, 2024, 11:18:42 PM
Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 27, 2024, 02:22:11 PMIn D1 basketball, all but 1 of the national champions since 2002 have had a combined KenPom adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency that adds up to less than 50, i.e, the 1st ranked offense and the 48th ranked defense, or the 24th ranked offense and the 25th ranked defense.

As I did last year (when 3 of the qualified teams made the Final Four, including Christopher Newport), I took Matt Snyder's rankings and applied the same thing to this year's field---offense is listed first, followed by defense, and then sorted by the total:

1. Hampden-Sydney 2-3-5
2. Randolph-Macon 3-5-8
3. Trinity (CT) 12-2-14
4. Keene St. 10-8-18
5. Guilford 16-6-22
6. Widener 13-19-32
7. John Carroll 25-10-35


Just missing out:
-Oswego St. 11-41-52
-Catholic 8-50-58

Last year 11 teams made the cut and a few more narrowly missed out. This year, the top 7 teams in overall adjusted efficiency are the only 7 that make the cut. I'd feel pretty confident that the national champion will be one of them.


This is a great KenPom stat. Another one is that no D1 national champion in the KenPom era (since 1999) has had an adjusted defensive efficiency worse than 22nd (Baylor in 2021). However, I am pretty sure that the same cannot be said for D3 champs. It applies to CNU last year, but I don't have the data to see where R-MC ranked in 2022 and where Oshkosh ranked in 2019 (but something makes me think they were worse than 22nd).

Also, it's wild that 3 of the 7 teams on your list are all in the Widener bracket, along with Oswego. IMO that's the deepest bracket of the 4.
#2
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
February 27, 2024, 04:13:49 PM
Quote from: ronk on February 27, 2024, 12:20:13 AM
Quote from: CardsFan on February 26, 2024, 10:58:27 PMI only just discovered that the board was back up and running. I am so happy for this group of seniors at CUA on their Landmark title. It has been really enjoyable to watch them play and improve together. I'm so glad they were able to get over the hurdle of the Landmark semifinals. The atmospheres in the DuFour Center on Thursday and Saturday were the best in many a year. There has been a real effort to get students out to the games during the season and the students have responded. That has not always been the case.

I also have to congratulate the Lady Royals on their Landmark title this past Saturday. That was the first of the three games this season that I saw in person. They were dominant from start to finish. Tremendous defense. I hope they make some noise in the NCAAs.

 The free pizza slices and t-shirts have helped in that regard.  :) Cards played well against Susque on Saturday but will have trouble against a team with a physical front line. Might not run into one until the 2nd weekend, though. Tommy Kelly, Timby, and Ntimoah could hold their own in a physical match, but not many of the others.
  Catholic women have been doing it with a short bench. Have always been a fan of Matt Donohue's defense. I foresee him to come up with a plan to stop W&L's all-american. You'll have problems with Rhode Island College in the expected 3rd round. They thumped us(Scranton) last year in the 2nd round on our home court.
   Best wishes in the postseason!

Thanks ronk! I agree with your analysis regarding the type of team the CUA men would struggle against. I always worry about physicality because the Landmark may be many things, but a physical league is not one of them. The type of team I worry about the most is a team with physical/long guards that can really pressure the ball and deny passing lanes. I think the men could really struggle if they win their first game and have to play Rowan in the second round.

But the second round seems to be the ceiling for Landmark teams in the NCAAs. Scranton went to the Elite 8 in 2012 and Susquehanna went to the Sweet 16 in 2017, but aside from those two years its been a lot of first and second-round losses.

Given how much the women's team struggled with rebounding against Scranton this year, I think a second-round game against W&L would be very difficult.
#3
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
February 26, 2024, 10:58:27 PM
I only just discovered that the board was back up and running. I am so happy for this group of seniors at CUA on their Landmark title. It has been really enjoyable to watch them play and improve together. I'm so glad they were able to get over the hurdle of the Landmark semifinals. The atmospheres in the DuFour Center on Thursday and Saturday were the best in many a year. There has been a real effort to get students out to the games during the season and the students have responded. That has not always been the case.

I also have to congratulate the Lady Royals on their Landmark title this past Saturday. That was the first of the three games this season that I saw in person. They were dominant from start to finish. Tremendous defense. I hope they make some noise in the NCAAs.
#4
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
December 06, 2023, 08:19:31 PM
Guess I was right to not be confident about tonight's game.....now 6 losses in a row to Susquehanna. Lost the last three games in Selinsgrove by a total of 9 points. Didn't watch the game, so I'm only going off the box score. Missing 6 FTs in a game you lose by 2 always stings. Oh well, gotta recover and get ready for the trip to Moravian Saturday.
#5
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
November 29, 2023, 11:17:38 PM
Cards finally got some of those open threes they've been missing to go down tonight, going 12-28 (8 coming in the 2nd half) en route to beating Elizabethtown 98-54. Third straight game taking pretty good care of the ball. Unlikely leading scorer for the Cards tonight with sophomore CJ Ruoff coming off the bench to score 17. Second good game for Ruoff this season. He scored 9 vital points in the win against Stevens.

Elizabethtown was without Rance Russo tonight. Possibly injured?

I see there were a lot of nailbiters across the Landmark tonight....... ;)
#6
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
November 21, 2023, 11:41:52 PM
Good bounce-back win for Catholic at home tonight 66-59 over Marymount. The Cards were down as many as 11 early in the second half, but from that point they played clean basketball (very few turnovers) and started passing more than dribbling.

Senior Jesse Hafemeister was good tonight, scoring 20. Over the weekend he really struggled shooting from the perimeter, including missing two good looks from three at the end of the Hood game that would have won it, but tonight he played mostly inside the arc and was much more efficient. Good performance from fellow senior Tommy Kelly as well, who scored almost all of his 13 points during the comeback.

Cards start Landmark play at home to Elizabethtown next Wednesday.
#7
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
November 21, 2023, 03:19:54 AM
Quote from: saratoga on November 20, 2023, 07:50:30 PM

CardsFan:

Absolutely agree on the dilution of talent in the Landmark over the past 5/7 years.
If you can recruit good kids & know the x/o's, you could live at the top of this league forever.
Personally, I'm hoping Justin gets his on the job training at Goucher this year & then makes it back home to Scranton to lead the Royals.
Early Christmas wish.

Saratoga I agree that that coach would live at the top of this league. The only thing I would add is I think mental toughness plays a huge part in being successful in Landmark play. Because the talent gap among the teams is so small, the coach that can consistently motivate his players will have a lot of success. My feeling is that is a big part of why Susquehanna has been so successful the past few years. Yes, they have had very talented players, but I am always impressed by the way Coach Marcinek has his team ready to play. I felt they were very mentally and emotionally prepared for both games against Catholic last season, and the Cards did not match that energy.

Similarly, in last season's Landmark semifinal, I thought Scranton's competitiveness in that game affected the Cards. Specifically, EJ Matthews-Spratley played a great game off the bench, he talked the right amount of trash throughout (I am not complaining about this), and he really fed off the CUA crowd. I think mental toughness goes a long way in this conference.
#8
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
November 20, 2023, 07:30:05 PM
Quote from: ronk on November 19, 2023, 09:07:10 PM
I'm sensing a dropoff in physical talent this season throughout the Landmark such that coaching, execution and lack of injuries would be bigger factors than normal in determining the champion. Looks like a competitive battle just to be 1 of the 6 in the postseason tourney.

The league does seem to be a long ways away from the talent present in 2015-16: Boken, Weidlich, Josh Miller, Fonville, Jay Howard.

I like the point about coaching. I think CUA will miss Justin Klingman on the bench during the season. I hope he is able to have some success at Goucher.
#9
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: MBB: Landmark Conference
November 19, 2023, 05:54:06 PM
Having survived twice in their first 3 games, CUA lost 65-63 to Hood College today. Cards were down by as many as 15 in the 2nd half before mounting a comeback. Two good looks from three in the final minute did not fall.

Quality of opponent has been much higher for CUA so far this season than last season. Cards have played Mary Washington, Stevens, and Hood already. However, at this moment the Cards are not playing like a top 25 team. They have committed 57 turnovers through 4 games, with many of them resulting from players traveling, stepping on the sideline, or simply throwing it out of bounds. I would say the Cards' only complete performance so far was the Stevens game.

Still early, but right now there is work to be done if the Cards hope to seriously contend for the Landmark title.
#10
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: Landmark Conference
February 27, 2020, 01:23:29 AM
Quote from: ronk on February 26, 2020, 10:05:22 PM
Quote from: CardsFan on February 26, 2020, 09:43:31 PM
I felt good about Susquehanna winning comfortably tonight. Looks like Moravian had to do without Matt O'Conner. I had a sneaky feeling Scranton would win tonight. Drew didn't do too well in their games against Susquehanna and Scranton. I think they went 1-4 in those 5 games? The Riley Collins era comes to an end.

Not quite - Drew has an outside shot at a Pool C(after Johns Hopkins and York in the Mid-Atlantic) and if that fails, they've declared for the ECAC tourney.

They have to be right at the outer limits of the bubble. Sub .800 winning%, 1-1 vRRO, decent but not great SOS.
#11
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: Landmark Conference
February 26, 2020, 09:43:31 PM
I felt good about Susquehanna winning comfortably tonight. Looks like Moravian had to do without Matt O'Conner. I had a sneaky feeling Scranton would win tonight. Drew didn't do too well in their games against Susquehanna and Scranton. I think they went 1-4 in those 5 games? The Riley Collins era comes to an end.
#12
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: Landmark Conference
February 22, 2020, 04:22:10 PM
Quote from: ronk on February 22, 2020, 04:08:54 PM
Drew defeats Catholic; Wed semis now set: Scranton @ Drew, Moravian @ Susquehanna.

I feel any of the top 3 could win the title. Scranton definitely with the toughest path. Susquehanna has been dominant over the past 5 games.
#13
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: Landmark Conference
February 20, 2020, 01:04:37 AM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 20, 2020, 12:24:59 AM
Quote from: CardsFan on February 20, 2020, 12:22:44 AM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 19, 2020, 11:32:40 PM
Goucher beat Catholic in what Ryan Scott now dubs the D3hoops.com Derby (I like the description) ... 86-70, but it was FAR closer than that. Goucher happened to hit a couple of late shots they normally miss badly.

Nice way to close out my 25th season as PA Announcer for Goucher.

Manchester and Merseyside are going to have to make room for a third major Derby!!

You may have just said the one thing to unite Arsenal and Spurs fans.

Nonsense! I didn't post a video of Chelsea losing.
#14
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: Landmark Conference
February 20, 2020, 12:22:44 AM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 19, 2020, 11:32:40 PM
Goucher beat Catholic in what Ryan Scott now dubs the D3hoops.com Derby (I like the description) ... 86-70, but it was FAR closer than that. Goucher happened to hit a couple of late shots they normally miss badly.

Nice way to close out my 25th season as PA Announcer for Goucher.

Manchester and Merseyside are going to have to make room for a third major Derby!!
#15
Region 5 men's basketball / Re: Landmark Conference
February 19, 2020, 11:16:57 PM
Quote from: ronk on February 19, 2020, 10:52:08 PM
The Royals made their quest for an NCAA tourney spot a lot harder with a home-court loss to Drew, going from an 11-point lead with 10 mins left to an 8-pt deficit 7 mins later, committing 6 turnovers in that span. Fouling a 3-pt shooter 2 different times cost them an additional 5 points(out of 6 possible). They'll need to play smarter than that if there's to be a future.
  Still a chance to finish 2nd and host a home game semifinal; this requires a Royal win(Goucher) and a Drew loss(Catholic) Saturday. Catholic has been w/o their PG(Colin Hartmann) for the recent 3 games, so it's unlikely they'll fill their half.

Losing Colin has been a real blow. Until he picked up his injury he was Catholic's most consistent player in Landmark play. The team is averaging a cool 59.7 ppg in the three games he's missed. I was disappointed he was unable to play on Senior Day last Saturday. He's had a nice season.