FB: Region 4 fan poll

Started by DPU3619, September 09, 2011, 09:17:13 AM

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Gregory Sager

Quote from: Old Pal Wes on October 01, 2014, 12:24:41 PM
The Flan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, smedindy, wally_wabash, NCF, Usee, Li'l Giant, Mr. Ypsi, and myself.



Olé!
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

Gregory Sager

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 07:03:59 PM
On another note, what in the heck happened to the CCIW mid-pack teams? If we're seriously debating Illinois Wesleyan as ranked or unranked, then whither Carthage, Millikin, and Augie?

How do Millikin and Carthage qualify as "CCIW mid-pack teams"? Last year MU went 1-6 and finished seventh (two games behind the trio of teams that tied for fourth), and Carthage went 0-7 and finished eighth. The year before that, Millikin went 2-5 and finished sixth while Carthage went 1-6 and finished seventh.

Coming into this season, Augie qualified as a "mid-pack team." Millikin and Carthage didn't.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

Li'l Giant

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 06:55:42 PM. I guess that Albion game hangs with me - even though they were a playoff team last year. I don't trust the MIAA farther than I can throw them...

Am I to assume you were one of the 2 voters who did not vote for either Adrian or Albion?
"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

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wally_wabash

Quote from: Old Pal Wes on October 01, 2014, 12:24:41 PM
Week 5 North Region Fan Poll:

1. Mount Union        80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. Wabash               68 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5)
3. John Carroll         66 pts (2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4. Wittenberg          51 pts (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 8)
5. North Central      49 pts  (3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6)
6. Wheaton             44 pts (4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6)
7. Franklin              19 pts (7, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9, 10, -)
8. Illinois Wesleyan 16 pts (6, 7, 7, 8, -, -, -, -)
T9. Heidelberg        14 pts (7, 7, 8, 9, 10, -, -, -, -)
T9. Adrian              14 pts (7, 8, 8, 9, 9, -, -, -)

ARV
Mount St Joseph     8 pts (8, 8, 10, 10, -, -, -, -)
Rose-Hulman          4 pts (9, 9, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Chicago                  3 pts (10, 10, 10, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                    3 pts (8, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Northern         1 pt (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The Flan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, smedindy, wally_wabash, NCF, Usee, Li'l Giant, Mr. Ypsi, and myself.

I think Wabash/John Carroll is a toss up to this point.  Wabash/JCU/Witt/Wheaton all slid up one spot for me as North Central moved down to sixth.  I struggled with the Wheaton/North Central placement because Wheaton hasn't been great and North Central has a pair of solid wins, but then again Wheaton has managed to not lose despite not being great whereas North Central failed to find a way to win when they didn't have a  great game.  So for now, Wheaton gets the edge. 

In the bottom four here I dropped ONU out, slid IWU and Franklin up one and added Chicago.  That's national team defense leader Chicago.  Might be a short stay if Rhodes leave the city with a win. 

And then out on the fringe of the rankings for me are (in no particular order) Heidelberg, ONU, Wooster, MSJ, RHIT, and DePauw.  Wooster has the next best shot to play their way in this weekend.  And then I'm really starting to lean toward including DePauw if they keep up what they are doing.  If they can shut down Denison and win comfortably, they could easily vault into my top ten next week. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 05:59:56 PM
But ETP, there are results and other mitigating factors weighing in:

1. First game.
2. ROAD GAME! One possession road game.
3. IWU's less than impressive run against Albion and loss to Simpson.
4. Franklin's rebound after Whitewater.

I mean, it was the first game for IWU too.  Not just the first game for the team, but the first college game for their quarterback- a quarterback who didn't have the opportunity to play with and learn from a stellar senior quarterback like Franklin's QB did.  If the first game is goofy for Franklin, shouldn't it be goofy for IWU as well?

I'm all for nuance, but I think the time for nuance comes later in the season when we get into league play and common opponents and using all of that information to place teams that have accumulated a loss or two.  Right now, I just don't believe that there is anything close to adequate information to dismiss a head to head result.  I don't think I've ready anything yet this week regarding the IWU/Franklin or IWU/Simpson placements in these polls that doesn't distill down to "I thought Franklin was better than IWU in August so I'm going to go ahead and stick with that despite whatever happened when those two teams actually played each other." 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

#890
Quote from: Gregory Sager on October 01, 2014, 07:22:50 PM
Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 07:03:59 PM
On another note, what in the heck happened to the CCIW mid-pack teams? If we're seriously debating Illinois Wesleyan as ranked or unranked, then whither Carthage, Millikin, and Augie?

How do Millikin and Carthage qualify as "CCIW mid-pack teams"? Last year MU went 1-6 and finished seventh (two games behind the trio of teams that tied for fourth), and Carthage went 0-7 and finished eighth. The year before that, Millikin went 2-5 and finished sixth while Carthage went 1-6 and finished seventh.

Coming into this season, Augie qualified as a "mid-pack team." Millikin and Carthage didn't.

Traditional mid-pack teams, I should have said...or something. In that small-ish of a conference it's hard to be mid pack with three really good teams. But they'd be mid pack in the OAC, and top 1/3 in the NCAC. I think. Anyway, they're not as strong as they were.

smedindy

#891
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 01, 2014, 09:07:46 PM
Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 05:59:56 PM
But ETP, there are results and other mitigating factors weighing in:

1. First game.
2. ROAD GAME! One possession road game.
3. IWU's less than impressive run against Albion and loss to Simpson.
4. Franklin's rebound after Whitewater.

I mean, it was the first game for IWU too.  Not just the first game for the team, but the first college game for their quarterback- a quarterback who didn't have the opportunity to play with and learn from a stellar senior quarterback like Franklin's QB did.  If the first game is goofy for Franklin, shouldn't it be goofy for IWU as well?

I'm all for nuance, but I think the time for nuance comes later in the season when we get into league play and common opponents and using all of that information to place teams that have accumulated a loss or two.  Right now, I just don't believe that there is anything close to adequate information to dismiss a head to head result.  I don't think I've ready anything yet this week regarding the IWU/Franklin or IWU/Simpson placements in these polls that doesn't distill down to "I thought Franklin was better than IWU in August so I'm going to go ahead and stick with that despite whatever happened when those two teams actually played each other."

That's not it at all. I do not distill it down to there no matter what you may think. It's solely based on the current data points and how I read them.

I defended whoever voted North Central ahead of the Wisconsin Schools on the other boards, even though I didn't do that myself, because I KNOW how I put a ballot together and can see their sides and nuances, and I  think (hopefully, maybe naively) that everyone but one or two actually takes data points into account and not rote ballot juggling.

If someone is tracking changes, I first posted this right after I dropped my laptop on my big toe, and I probably was a bit harsher and ungentlemanly.

smedindy

#892
Quote from: Li'l Giant on October 01, 2014, 08:04:45 PM
Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 06:55:42 PM. I guess that Albion game hangs with me - even though they were a playoff team last year. I don't trust the MIAA farther than I can throw them...

Am I to assume you were one of the 2 voters who did not vote for either Adrian or Albion?

I threw some bones to Adrian. I have the least amount of mistrust for them. I was about ready to bail an MIAA team if B-W played well, or ONU didn't give up a badillion, or if earlier MSJ was undefeated. But that Millsaps loss may be an albatross for MSJ.

smedindy

It seems that aside from two from the NCAC, CCIW and OAC, no one really wants to be ranked 7-10 until the MIAA and HCAC starts to sort themselves out.

One thing to watch for here - AND in "B" land, is that cancelled game between Chicago and Pacific. That may benefit Chicago, since I don't know how much Pacific would help them. They may win just two games this year (Lewis & Clark and rookie George Fox).


ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 11:01:26 PM
It seems that aside from two from the NCAC, CCIW and OAC, no one really wants to be ranked 7-10 until the MIAA and HCAC starts to sort themselves out.

One thing to watch for here - AND in "B" land, is that cancelled game between Chicago and Pacific. That may benefit Chicago, since I don't know how much Pacific would help them. They may win just two games this year (Lewis & Clark and rookie George Fox).

As a UAA alum, I've been following Chicago's start with a cautious optimism.

They were 4-0 at this time last year, too. They might be a hair better this year but they've also added one really tough game in Bethel. I think the game with Rhodes this week is huge - it's their best chance for a win over a quality opponent (other than the Bethel game). The UAA as a whole is down this year - only Chicago has looked really good this far - but still, if the Maroos lose to Rhodes this week, they would probably have to upset Bethel to make the B picture.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 11:01:26 PM
One thing to watch for here - AND in "B" land, is that cancelled game between Chicago and Pacific. That may benefit Chicago, since I don't know how much Pacific would help them. They may win just two games this year (Lewis & Clark and rookie George Fox).

Wesley is putting the Pool B to bed this weekend, yes?  When they beat Louisiana College on Saturday, they finish their D-III schedule at 5-0.  I'm not sure anybody can take that playoff spot from Wesley. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

D3MAFAN

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 02, 2014, 01:09:46 AM
Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 11:01:26 PM
One thing to watch for here - AND in "B" land, is that cancelled game between Chicago and Pacific. That may benefit Chicago, since I don't know how much Pacific would help them. They may win just two games this year (Lewis & Clark and rookie George Fox).

Wesley is putting the Pool B to bed this weekend, yes?  When they beat Louisiana College on Saturday, they finish their D-III schedule at 5-0.  I'm not sure anybody can take that playoff spot from Wesley.

There is a remote possibility, I would think that if by some remote chance, each of the teams that Wesley face this year end up as sub .500 teams and the other team on the board opponents end up with a higher SOS, there may be a chance, but I doubt it. They are a lock as of today.

ExTartanPlayer

We may be getting ahead of ourselves then - I know it's too early for Wally's (awesome) playoff selection exercise - but a one loss Chicago would be a reasonable B-gets-a-C candidate, right? Especially seeing how the North region already has a bit of a mess...some of the usual C candidates will have two losses by season's end. Not sure how Chicago's SOS will look but their results against Rhodes and Bethel will be key. If they can split those (I'm assuming if they win both and finish undefeated they'd be a lock, even if Wesley takes the B), and play it close in the loss, and both of THOSE teams end up regionally ranked (might need Bethel to win the MIAC)...its a lot of ifs, and there's plenty of season to be played, so I'll knock it off there for now.

Wally, we're about two weeks away from the weekly playoff selection projection, yes? Do you start when the first RR's come out or before? I feel like you started after 5 or 6 games last year for some reason.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

FCGrizzliesGrad

Since we're discussing Chicago and pool B/C and all that... Texas Lutheran could very well end up 9-1 (barring an upset of UMHB) and that would be an interesting conversation between them and Chicago.
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wally_wabash

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 02, 2014, 07:40:36 AM
We may be getting ahead of ourselves then - I know it's too early for Wally's (awesome) playoff selection exercise - but a one loss Chicago would be a reasonable B-gets-a-C candidate, right? Especially seeing how the North region already has a bit of a mess...some of the usual C candidates will have two losses by season's end. Not sure how Chicago's SOS will look but their results against Rhodes and Bethel will be key. If they can split those (I'm assuming if they win both and finish undefeated they'd be a lock, even if Wesley takes the B), and play it close in the loss, and both of THOSE teams end up regionally ranked (might need Bethel to win the MIAC)...its a lot of ifs, and there's plenty of season to be played, so I'll knock it off there for now.

Wally, we're about two weeks away from the weekly playoff selection projection, yes? Do you start when the first RR's come out or before? I feel like you started after 5 or 6 games last year for some reason.

Thanks!  And I'll probably do the first one after week 6 or 7 (probably 6 because I'll get the itch I'm sure).  I did start really early last year because I wanted to see how the thing evolves over the course of most of the season.  It was interesting. 

I think the wrinkle I'm going to toss in this year is to use these fan polls as substitute RRs until we get the real deal in November. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire