FB: Region 4 fan poll

Started by DPU3619, September 09, 2011, 09:17:13 AM

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DPU3619

I would say it's a case of penalizing for a loss, but that was last week. I openly admit that I forgot about IWU in my ballot. Neglected to rank them at all on accident.

Li'l Giant

Quote from: Old Pal Wes on October 01, 2014, 12:24:41 PM
Week 5 North Region Fan Poll:

1. Mount Union        80 pts (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2. Wabash               68 pts (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5)
3. John Carroll         66 pts (2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4. Wittenberg          51 pts (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 8)
5. North Central      49 pts  (3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6)
6. Wheaton             44 pts (4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6)
7. Franklin              19 pts (7, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9, 10, -)
8. Illinois Wesleyan 16 pts (6, 7, 7, 8, -, -, -, -)
T9. Heidelberg        14 pts (7, 7, 8, 9, 10, -, -, -, -)
T9. Adrian              14 pts (7, 8, 8, 9, 9, -, -, -)

ARV
Mount St Joseph     8 pts (8, 8, 10, 10, -, -, -, -)
Rose-Hulman          4 pts (9, 9, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Chicago                  3 pts (10, 10, 10, -, -, -, -, -)
Albion                    3 pts (8, -, -, -, -, -, -)
Ohio Northern         1 pt (10, -, -, -, -, -, -, -)

The Flan Poll is voted on by FCGrizzliesGrad, smedindy, wally_wabash, NCF, Usee, Li'l Giant, Mr. Ypsi, and myself.

My ballot.
"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

Quote from: sigma one on October 11, 2015, 10:46:46 AMI don't drink with the enemy, and I don't drink lattes at all, with anyone.

ExTartanPlayer

#857
Quote from: jknezek on October 01, 2014, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 01, 2014, 12:33:18 PM
I'll open up the kimono tonight when I have my ballot in front of me but for now (and this is going to be a fun couple of days here)...

Quote from: Old Pal Wes on October 01, 2014, 12:24:41 PM
Week 5 North Region Fan Poll:
7. Franklin              19 pts (7, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9, 10, -)
8. Illinois Wesleyan 16 pts (6, 7, 7, 8, -, -, -, -)

How?

Feel free to read the pages of nonsense on a similar situation that were in the National Top 25 Fan Poll thread yesterday.

I am too tired to participate.






No, actually, that's BS.  I can't stop raging about this sort of crap. 

Let's start with one thing: IWU beat Franklin.  Thus, to rank Franklin ahead of IWU, someone must have decided that the other data available suggest that Franklin is now better than IWU.

Week 1: IWU beats Franklin.  IWU was (as far as I can tell) ahead of Franklin on all ballots.

Week 2: Franklin loses to UWW 42-13 (although they acquitted themselves fairly well, leading 13-7 after one quarter before wearing down).  IWU beats Albion 35-28.  Again, IWU remains ahead of Franklin on all ballots.

Week 3: Franklin beats Anderson 62-14.  IWU loses to Simpson 13-3.  Franklin passes IWU on several (not all) ballots and is ranked higher overall.  I blow a gasket.

I'm still not sure how IWU's loss to a Simpson team that's been referred to as "a road loss against a Top 50 team" and "not a bad loss, more like a surprising loss" and "a road loss to a team that's going to finish in the top third of its conference" by two separate voters in this poll is grounds for them falling behind a team that they beat head-to-head two weeks earlier.

If IWU had gone ahead and lost to an otherwise winless team, or lost to a team that Franklin had beaten head to head, or if Franklin had beaten UWW, there would be some sense in this.  Any of those would be "results" that would be grounds for overruling the H2H.  None of those things has actually happened.  The only grounds for this is that some voters "think" Simpson is not very good, and that IWU has to be penalized for losing to a team that is "not very good" or something.  Well, for one, Simpson still hasn't lost, so we have NO data supporting this idea.  For two, if IWU must be penalized because they lost to Simspon, then Franklin really must be penalized because they lost to IWU who lost to Simpson, right?

You don't have to be slaves to head-to-head results when there is data that trumps the head-to-head result, (example: if UWP beats UWSP in a few weeks, there's some sense in ranking NCC>UWSP because NCC>UWP and UWP>UWSP, contradicting last week's UWSP>NCC result) but right now there is none.  This is one of those utterly stupid things where the most "recent" result trumps all else, even a game that the two teams actually played against each other less than a month ago.  If IWU had lost to Simpson in week 1 and beaten Franklin in week 3, everyone would have IWU ahead of Franklin.  Ugh.

*Edit: I posted the wrong result for IWU in week 2, this is corrected now.  They beat Albion 35-28.

Also, +K to wally for posting the initial carrot, knowing that this was easy as pulling the string on one of those talking dolls.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wally_wabash

It's all just fascinating.  Are we giving Franklin credit for taking a lead against Whitewater?  Is just holding a lead for a few minutes in a game that you lose by 30 enough to turn heads and dismiss a very relevant H2H?  I can't do it, you guys.  I can't say that because Franklin managed to lead Whitewater after they had two possessions to Whitewater's one that that nullifies their losing to IWU who was starting a freshman quarterback.  I'm also not overly penalizing Franklin for losing to Whitewater, but I can't give them any credit for one quarter of play.  It's not like the Mount Union game last year when they had a real opportunity to win. 

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 01, 2014, 01:27:25 PM
If IWU had lost to Simpson in week 1 and beaten Franklin in week 3, everyone would have IWU ahead of Franklin.  Ugh.

All of this.  Maybe even less logical than talking oneself out of the most meaningful piece of data we can have (a head-to-head result) is how much results matter less and less over time.  And not 8 weeks.  We're talking about two weeks here.  You're absolutely right.  If Franklin and IWU have the exact same game results that they have gathered so far but you just shuffle the order in which those results happened, IWU would be ranked on every ballot and they would be ranked ahead of Franklin on every ballot.  It's not even a question. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

jknezek

Things I have learned on here lately regarding polls:

1) The most important thing is what a pollster believes should have happened.

2) The most recent result is 2x more important than last week, and each week prior drops exponentially.

3) H2H is drastically more important when it confirms a belief. When it contradicts a belief it is a significantly less valuable data point.

smedindy

Could the fact that it was a close one-possession road loss factor into it? Game site can make a difference.  I think Franklin is better than they were in week 1 but I'm not so sure about IWU.

Basically, anyone below Wheaton is all conjecture right now. Burning people at the stake for making somewhat nuanced suggestions isn't helpful.

smedindy

#861
Quote from: jknezek on October 01, 2014, 01:53:16 PM
Things I have learned on here lately regarding polls:

1) The most important thing is what a pollster believes should have happened.

2) The most recent result is 2x more important than last week, and each week prior drops exponentially.

3) H2H is drastically more important when it confirms a belief. When it contradicts a belief it is a significantly less valuable data point.

I think you are trying too hard to get into peoples heads, when that is NOT the case, and trying to make it personal. And I vehemently disagree with you on your conjectures.

smedindy

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 01, 2014, 01:48:14 PM


All of this.  Maybe even less logical than talking oneself out of the most meaningful piece of data we can have (a head-to-head result) is how much results matter less and less over time.  And not 8 weeks.  We're talking about two weeks here.  You're absolutely right.  If Franklin and IWU have the exact same game results that they have gathered so far but you just shuffle the order in which those results happened, IWU would be ranked on every ballot and they would be ranked ahead of Franklin on every ballot.  It's not even a question.

You can't be so absolute. You can't have rigidity like that.

smedindy

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 01, 2014, 01:27:25 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 01, 2014, 12:35:33 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 01, 2014, 12:33:18 PM
I'll open up the kimono tonight when I have my ballot in front of me but for now (and this is going to be a fun couple of days here)...

Quote from: Old Pal Wes on October 01, 2014, 12:24:41 PM
Week 5 North Region Fan Poll:
7. Franklin              19 pts (7, 7, 7, 9, 9, 9, 10, -)
8. Illinois Wesleyan 16 pts (6, 7, 7, 8, -, -, -, -)

How?

Feel free to read the pages of nonsense on a similar situation that were in the National Top 25 Fan Poll thread yesterday.

I am too tired to participate.






No, actually, that's BS.  I can't stop raging about this sort of crap. 



And I'm raging at the fact you are raging in that you insist on hard, fast rules and no nuance...

Li'l Giant

I don't mean to slander IWU. I really don't. I sort of forgot about IWU too. Which, if I don't think of them when ranking my top 10 teams in the region, doesn't that mean something?

I suppose the answer could be "that means you're disregarding a head to head result" or "that means you're not using the data that's in front of you" or even "that means you're an idiot".

I think there are differing philosophies about what a poll ranking really means. Is it just "who the best teams are *this week*" or "who the best teams are taking into consideration the season as a whole as it has gone by" or "teams ranked in order of who would win games on a neutral field head to head". I've seen all three of these listed as considerations for polls in the past.

It is not unusual from my limited time participating in this poll and brief one season on the Fan Top 25 poll to see a head to head result not have the anticipated effect on ranking. Part of the problem is the poll isn't just about Franklin and IWU. We're trying (at least it's part of my mental calculus) to rank these teams all relative to each other.

If I think Franklin is the 7th best team in the region I don't subscribe to the theory that IWU must be 6th because of the head to head result. Otherwise, we're not having a poll that relies upon our discretion in any way, we're just doing math.

Again, this isn't the first time that's come up in either regional or national polls.
"I believe in God and I believe I'm gonna go to Heaven, but if something goes wrong and I end up in Hell, I know it's gonna be me and a bunch of D3 officials."---Erik Raeburn

Quote from: sigma one on October 11, 2015, 10:46:46 AMI don't drink with the enemy, and I don't drink lattes at all, with anyone.

jknezek

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 01:55:10 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 01, 2014, 01:53:16 PM
Things I have learned on here lately regarding polls:

1) The most important thing is what a pollster believes should have happened.

2) The most recent result is 2x more important than last week, and each week prior drops exponentially.

3) H2H is drastically more important when it confirms a belief. When it contradicts a belief it is a significantly less valuable data point.

I think you are trying too hard to get into peoples heads, when that is NOT the case, and trying to make it personal. And I vehemently disagree with you on your conjectures.

Everyone is allowed an opinion on my conjectures. I'll simply say there is NOTHING personal about anyone in what I wrote above. If you are talking about yesterday I already said my phrasing was bad and explained what I meant, and that it wasn't personal, as well as apologized for the wording. Feel free to disagree... it's the point of the exercise.

smedindy

#866
But you are actively discouraging people from participating by indirectly lambasting them in a denigrating manner...

No one likes to be called out like that in a way that belittles them. Save the rage, if there is rage, for Pat's poll, or the AFCA or any other poll that is official. We have opinions but we want others to join in because their views and insights help form all of our knowledge.

Disagree yes. question, yes, but to me that tone seemed mocking when some put thought into this.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 02:06:54 PM
But you are actively discouraging people from participating by indirectly lambasting them in a denigrating manner...

No one likes to be called out like that in a way that belittles them. Save the rage, if there is rage, for Pat's poll, or the AFCA or any other poll that is official. We have opinions but we want others to join in because their views and insights help form all of our knowledge.

Disagree yes. question, yes, but to me that tone seemed mocking when some put thought into this.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

jknezek

Quote from: smedindy on October 01, 2014, 02:06:54 PM
But you are actively discouraging people from participating by indirectly lambasting them in a denigrating manner...

No one likes to be called out like that in a way that belittles them.

I didn't belittle anyone. I disagreed with the way some people did things, just like you disagreed with me above. But the closest I came to belittling anything was calling a hypothetical situation "ridiculous". If you can find a quote where I belittled anyone, or denigrated anyone, let me know. I'm pretty quick to apologize and admit it when necessary.

smedindy

#869
Getting into the mind of what a pollster believes to me is mocking them and belittling their thought process, at least to me. But I'll drop that now.

It's NOT ridiculous, at least I don't think it is, and a couple of others here didn't either. Just because it offends the sensibilities of some who demand order when there is nuance, I can't help it.