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Messages - E.115

#1
Hmm ... maybe ... so then ... how impressive is 7 of the 8 teams being at least 7-2 right now?  That's gotta be worth something overall.

School                        Conf   Overall
Case Western Reserve   0-0      9-0
Washington St. Louis     0-0      9-1
New York                      0-0      8-1
Emory                          0-0      7-1
Brandeis                       0-0      7-2
Carnegie Mellon            0-0      7-2
Chicago                        0-0      7-2
Rochester                     0-0      5-4
#2
Side note — it is crazy how every team in the UAA has a winning record right now:  https://uaasports.info/sports/mens-basketball
#3
Here are my final "in hindsight" thoughts on where the top PAC teams plugged in nationally for 2023:

Top 10: Grove City
#15 - #20: Carnegie Mellon
#25 - #35: Washington & Jefferson
#30 - #40: Case Western Reserve

Again, I know it is super hard to measure playing inside the bubble of the PAC, but with the non conference results above and games against each other, this is where the top 4 would fall IMO.

#4
In hindsight, Carnegie Mellon was definitely a Top 20 team this year, and probably a Top 15.  Best educated guess if they had been let into the playoffs, it would have equated to at least two playoff wins (depending on when they crossed paths with Cortland!).

Another data point that shows some votes as either bias or laziness ... Brockport received a Top 25 vote! ... the same team Carnegie Mellon was up 30-0 in at halftime.   Heck #3 and #4 in the PAC (W&J and CWRU) would probably be two score favorites if they played them. 
#5
PAC all season suffered from a conference-only schedule, meaning no way to measure against the rest of the country for RRO wins, Top 25, or playoff seeding:

We finally have extra data points:

2023 Non-Conference:

Carnegie Mellon 37 SUNY Brockport 7
Washington & Jefferson 46 U.S. Merchant Marine Academy 21
Grove City 21 Susquehanna 20
SUNY Cortland 25 Grove City 24

2022 Non-Conference:

Washington & Jefferson 35 Hobart 18 
Grove City 31 FDU-Florham 14
Carnegie Mellon 45 DePauw 14
North Central 28 Carnegie Mellon 7

Top 4 PAC conference against each other 2023:

Grove City 27 Case Western Reserve 24 (OT)
Grove City 21 Carnegie Mellon 14
Grove City 31 Washington & Jefferson 24
Carnegie Mellon 35 Washington & Jefferson 14
Carnegie Mellon 31 Case Western Reserve 21
Washington & Jefferson 38 Case Western Reserve 33


#6
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
December 04, 2023, 02:45:14 PM
^ Your format is easy on the eyes and super easy to follow--thanks for always doing this.
#7
CWRU basketball will have a super unique basketball home court soon.

Renovating + adding some expansion to a building built in 1888 and 1919:

https://x.com/CWRUhoops/status/1729232028804280624?s=20%0A
#9
CWRU had a solid season opener ... up 62-29 at halftime rolling to a 104 - 73 W

Question though ... one of the transfers, 6' 9" Andrew Fox, did not play nor do I think we was even there.

Anyone know if he's hurt ... or even still on the team??

https://athletics.case.edu/sidearmstats/mbball/summary;team=home
#10
^ here's the game: https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/live/

But I'm about done watching ...
#12
Quote from: ADL70 on October 13, 2023, 02:22:56 PM
Spartan roster posted https://athletics.case.edu/sports/mens-basketball/roster?view=2

Frilling hasn't returned for covid year, but Drenth is back after missing last season due to injury. 5 FY and  1 SO who it appears was in school but not on team. And 7 transfers 5 GR and 2 underclassmen.

TRANSFERS

https://www.bwyellowjackets.com/sports/mbkb/2022-23/bios/mazzeo_anthony_0o2b

https://sewaneetigers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/colin-kahl/7779

https://dyusaints.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/caleb-chapman/2985 dii

https://generalssports.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/richie-manigault/14536

https://athletics.wesleyan.edu/sports/mens-basketball/roster/preston-maccoux/17509

https://famuathletics.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/jaylan-hewitt/3830

https://ritathletics.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/andrew-fox/16723

Seven transfers, including Five Grad Students (many of them were multi-year starters on their prior teams)...completely blows my mind!

Is this the new normal or the last year of Covid year extra eligibility ripple effects??
#14
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 23, 2023, 11:41:40 AM
Oddly, I am going to defend W&J a little bit here, despite the fact that I deeply and thoroughly enjoyed that game because I want us to beat W&J as much as anybody in the conferences.

CMU kicked their butts and deserves the win, but I honestly suspect if they lined up and played next week, the margin would be narrower.  Couple of reasons:

1. The wrinkle with Bouma playing the wildcat was the source of CMU's biggest offensive plays.  The fake-bubble-screen got'em for two huge runs in the first half.  Bouma had 140 rushing yards at halftime and finished with 149 yards.  CMU overall had 235 rushing yards at halftime and finished with 265 yards (the average per carry was depressed by a few TFL's with the second-stringers, but it wasn't hard to see that the CMU offense wasn't getting as much going after they adjusted to that wrinkle).  You don't just get to discount plays that happened with really good game-planning, but I suspect that a rematch would not see Bouma going for 5 touchdowns in the first half.

2. CMU's defense kicked W&J's offense around for the entire first half.  Sacks, turnovers, a blocked punt.  Other than the 67-yard touchdown pass, W&J barely did anything in the first half.  In the second half, they had several drives that actually went somewhere (once getting picked off inside the 10-yard line and another time stopped on 4th & goal at the 1; W&J also committed a boneheaded unsportsmanlike penalty after that play that ended up letting CMU start on the 16 instead of in the shadow of their own end zone).   A few things go differently there and W&J could have made it 32-21 or even 32-28.

Yeah, CMU may have relaxed/closed the playbook a little bit and coasted home since W&J never got within two scores, but I think we pretty much saw CMU's best game and one of W&J's worst games on Saturday.  Play it 10 more times and CMU might win >60% of them but I bet they don't win by 21 again.  I think that margin overstates the true gap between the teams.

It's academic now.  Time for CMU to rest, make sure they take Westminster seriously on 11/4 and set up a season-ending showdown of (hopefully) 8-1 CMU vs. 8-1 CWRU in the Academic Bowl that should have somewhat of a playoff atmosphere to it, being that both will still harbor at least some level of hope for a Pool C bid.

I'll also add here, you never want to play a good team on the heels of a bad loss.  CWRU will be heading into Washington, PA against a team who is looking to redeem themselves next week. 

With that said, man would a 8-1 vs 8-1 be a fantastic Academic Bowl.

It would be the most balanced in combined wins, with the closest being:

2017: 9-0 CWRU @ 7-2 CMU
2019: 9-0 CWRU @ 7-2 CMU
2022: 9-0 CMU @ 6-3 CWRU
#15
Bravo to CMU vs W&J first half ... 32-7 halftime lead