Mid-Atlantic Region

Started by Mid-Atlantic Fan, August 29, 2017, 02:44:32 PM

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Mr.Right


Shooter McGavin

So DaddyBoy you went Case, Fords, F&M, Hopkins, Cortland. Why?



I went with F&M, Case, Fords, Cortland, JHU.

I went this way because I value the highest SOS and the most ranked wins when comparing these 5 teams. F&M has the highest SOS and most ranked wins of 8. Case follows suite with the second highest SOS and second most ranked wins of 6. They both also only have 3 ranked losses. All of these teams have very similar win percentage/overall records as well as similar overall blemishes so that is mostly a wash for me unless it is very nitty gritty for a pick.

Next I placed your Fords because the 5 ranked wins is impressive to me and the SOS is pretty much .600. I then chose Cortland (and could see if Cortland was swapped with Fords by some) due to quality SOS, ranked opponents record, and most ovrall wins of the group. All of this wasn't overshadowed by Hopkins higher SOS as they had twice as many losses as Cortland and a worse RvR.

I am not saying you have to agree, but I think most people would go this way based off how they know the committee tends to select teams. This does not mean the Fords aren't better than F&M, but a full body of work over a season has shown, and I think clearly, that F&M and Case are 1 and 2 on this list. The remaining 3 can be a toss up by many but I can't imagine others disagreeing with F&M slotted 1 and 2 from those 5 resumes.


paclassic89

Quote from: Mr.Right on November 05, 2018, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2018, 08:15:11 PM
Quote from: daddyEzK on November 05, 2018, 07:59:22 PM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2018, 07:09:47 PM
Quote from: daddyEzK on November 05, 2018, 06:58:56 PM
Franklin and Marshall hosting....are you kidding me?

I'd offer to explain why but you refuse to listen to anybody on here...

F&M was the 2nd team in the region behind Messiah with .615 SOS and insane 8-3-1 RvR....why would they not host?

I've actually not refused to listen to anyone.  Actually you are right, if listening and agreeing have the same definition.  F&M tied three non ranked teams: Mulenberg, Swarthmore and McDaniel; and lost to three teams that are not hosting:  Eastern, Hopkins and Haverford.  Quite a resume.

You don't have to agree you're just insane if you think Haverford has a better resume than F&M especially after they split with the H2H. You can't even argue that they are better because they beat F&M since they split results this year. You are a serious head scratcher my friend. I am all for people being a "homer" but at least be somewhat logical at some point.

DaddyBoy...please rank from best to worst from the 5 resumes below...best as #1 and worst as #5.

WLT/SOS/RvR

Team A: 13-3-3/0.615/8-3-1

Team B: 13-4-1/0.603 3-3-1

Team C: 15-2-3/0.579/3-2-3

Team D: 14-4-0/0.599/5-4-0

Team E: 14-3-1/0.613/6-3-0

Personally I'd go like this

1. Team A
2. Team E
3. Team D
4. Team C
5. Team B



IDK Shoots....That actually is a really difficult exercise but I am curious what point you were trying to make to "daddyboy"??

Now I will say he might be trying to be a tad difficult as I do not see how he puts anyone but Team E first...

Just curious which team your son plays for "daddyEzk"?  Sorry I am to lazy to go back and catch up on previous convo...

Haverford

daddyEzK

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2018, 08:58:25 PM
Team A: 13-3-3/0.615/8-3-1 (F&M)

Team B: 13-4-1/0.603 3-3-1 (JHU)

Team C: 15-2-3/0.579/3-2-3 (Cortland)

Team D: 14-4-0/0.599/5-4-0 (Fords)

Team E: 14-3-1/0.613/6-3-0 (Case)

Got to spend some more time on this while on a webinar this morning.  Another interesting stat (and before y'all start barking I know that it is not part of the NCAAs consideration, but maybe should be);  winning percentage of the teams that these teams did not defeat. Using this:

F&M 66.6%
Hop 70.5%
Cortland 60.7%
Fords 70.3%
Case 61.4%

If you are losing or tied with teams that are not as competitive with the teams that they are playing, that says something about you.

Understand that this has a lot to do with conferences, but that has seemed to be dismissed.  And remember that in this instance, Hopkins and Cortland are helped by playing Messiah.

Knowing that, does it change your rankings of the 5 teams?

Falconer

Quote from: daddyEzK on November 06, 2018, 09:46:47 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2018, 08:58:25 PM
Team A: 13-3-3/0.615/8-3-1 (F&M)

Team B: 13-4-1/0.603 3-3-1 (JHU)

Team C: 15-2-3/0.579/3-2-3 (Cortland)

Team D: 14-4-0/0.599/5-4-0 (Fords)

Team E: 14-3-1/0.613/6-3-0 (Case)

Got to spend some more time on this while on a webinar this morning.  Another interesting stat (and before y'all start barking I know that it is not part of the NCAAs consideration, but maybe should be);  winning percentage of the teams that these teams did not defeat. Using this:

F&M 66.6%
Hop 70.5%
Cortland 60.7%
Fords 70.3%
Case 61.4%

If you are losing or tied with teams that are not as competitive with the teams that they are playing, that says something about you.

Understand that this has a lot to do with conferences, but that has seemed to be dismissed.  And remember that in this instance, Hopkins and Cortland are helped by playing Messiah.

Knowing that, does it change your rankings of the 5 teams?

I'd say that Hopkins and Cortland are helped not just by playing Messiah--heck, Hartwick played Messiah and it didn't do them much good--they are helped by getting a result against Messiah. And, they might each get another chance to do the same thing in the next few weeks, especially if Cortland ends up playing at home, assuming that the Falcon women host on the second weekend.

daddyEzK

Quote from: Falconer on November 06, 2018, 10:07:47 AM

I'd say that Hopkins and Cortland are helped not just by playing Messiah--heck, Hartwick played Messiah and it didn't do them much good--they are helped by getting a result against Messiah. And, they might each get another chance to do the same thing in the next few weeks, especially if Cortland ends up playing at home, assuming that the Falcon women host on the second weekend.

They are helped by playing Messiah is this instance that the winning percentage of the teams that they have losses of tied with is increased because of Messiah's success. That percentage would suffer without the Falcons.

PaulNewman

Quote from: daddyEzK on November 06, 2018, 10:37:47 AM
Quote from: Falconer on November 06, 2018, 10:07:47 AM

I'd say that Hopkins and Cortland are helped not just by playing Messiah--heck, Hartwick played Messiah and it didn't do them much good--they are helped by getting a result against Messiah. And, they might each get another chance to do the same thing in the next few weeks, especially if Cortland ends up playing at home, assuming that the Falcon women host on the second weekend.

They are helped by playing Messiah is this instance that the winning percentage of the teams that they have losses of tied with is increased because of Messiah's success. That percentage would suffer without the Falcons.

Daddy, what are you doing?  The treatment of Haverford in the polls, rankings, on the board here, etc has mirrored their season.  When they were struggling most of us knew that they might emerge as a strong team that could be formidable, but at the time you have to rate based on the results at that point.  You can't say, oh well, the field sucked, so voters should include that as a consideration.  As Haverford the went on the string together an impressive list of wins, each week adjustments were made to how Haverford was rated. 

Haverford is in the tournament!  Haverford would have made the tournament even if they hadn't won the Centennial tournament!  Now, Haverford did get a very challenging draw, but so did Messiah, JHU and W&L.  Focus on how you all are going to beat NYU and Montclair.

daddyEzK

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 06, 2018, 10:45:47 AM
Daddy, what are you doing?  The treatment of Haverford in the polls, rankings, on the board here, etc has mirrored their season.  When they were struggling most of us knew that they might emerge as a strong team that could be formidable, but at the time you have to rate based on the results at that point.  You can't say, oh well, the field sucked, so voters should include that as a consideration.  As Haverford the went on the string together an impressive list of wins, each week adjustments were made to how Haverford was rated. 

Haverford is in the tournament!  Haverford would have made the tournament even if they hadn't won the Centennial tournament!  Now, Haverford did get a very challenging draw, but so did Messiah, JHU and W&L.  Focus on how you all are going to beat NYU and Montclair.

This is called banter.  My initial postings and subsequent postings were to add to the discussion with some perspective that WOULD NOT be reflected in the polls, rankings and might not be available to folks on this Board.  The early struggles were explainable and I explained.  And it looks like I was correct. (And based on YOUR latest suggest poll, you  agree with me)

I think F&M hosting is not supportable based on the FACTS.  I have shared them with you.  You decide if my reasons are accurate.

And at the end of day, it will be all be worked out on the field.  I will be focusing on beating NYU and Montclair and depending on Coach Ward to figure out how.

PaulNewman

Quote from: daddyEzK on November 06, 2018, 11:00:03 AM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 06, 2018, 10:45:47 AM
Daddy, what are you doing?  The treatment of Haverford in the polls, rankings, on the board here, etc has mirrored their season.  When they were struggling most of us knew that they might emerge as a strong team that could be formidable, but at the time you have to rate based on the results at that point.  You can't say, oh well, the field sucked, so voters should include that as a consideration.  As Haverford the went on the string together an impressive list of wins, each week adjustments were made to how Haverford was rated. 

Haverford is in the tournament!  Haverford would have made the tournament even if they hadn't won the Centennial tournament!  Now, Haverford did get a very challenging draw, but so did Messiah, JHU and W&L.  Focus on how you all are going to beat NYU and Montclair.

This is called banter.  My initial postings and subsequent postings were to add to the discussion with some perspective that WOULD NOT be reflected in the polls, rankings and might not be available to folks on this Board.  The early struggles were explainable and I explained.  And it looks like I was correct. (And based on YOUR latest suggest poll, you  agree with me)

I think F&M hosting is not supportable based on the FACTS.  I have shared them with you.  You decide if my reasons are accurate.

And at the end of day, it will be all be worked out on the field.  I will be focusing on beating NYU and Montclair and depending on Coach Ward to figure out how.

But, and this is the thing the other guy doesn't get either, NO ONE ever said you weren't correct.  The fact that they've done well proves what?  That they were a good team off to a rough start for whatever reasons?  Or that they were off to a rough start and because you knew they were good they should have been getting rankings love anyway?  If you are insisting on the latter we totally disagree.

As for who hosts, various things go into that.  I didn't blink for a second when I saw F&M is hosting...and I wouldn't have blinked if I saw Haverford hosting.  F&M will have to win two tough games to get the Sweet 16.

lastguyoffthebench

#745
Haverford will have their hands full on turf vs NYU... 

Assuming that Lycoming was one of the last teams in, they got a pretty sweet draw for sweet 16 potential.    Definitely good for recruiting purposes.   

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: daddyEzK on November 06, 2018, 09:46:47 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2018, 08:58:25 PM
Team A: 13-3-3/0.615/8-3-1 (F&M)

Team B: 13-4-1/0.603 3-3-1 (JHU)

Team C: 15-2-3/0.579/3-2-3 (Cortland)

Team D: 14-4-0/0.599/5-4-0 (Fords)

Team E: 14-3-1/0.613/6-3-0 (Case)

Got to spend some more time on this while on a webinar this morning.  Another interesting stat (and before y'all start barking I know that it is not part of the NCAAs consideration, but maybe should be);  winning percentage of the teams that these teams did not defeat. Using this:

F&M 66.6%
Hop 70.5%
Cortland 60.7%
Fords 70.3%
Case 61.4%

If you are losing or tied with teams that are not as competitive with the teams that they are playing, that says something about you.

Understand that this has a lot to do with conferences, but that has seemed to be dismissed.  And remember that in this instance, Hopkins and Cortland are helped by playing Messiah.

Knowing that, does it change your rankings of the 5 teams?

This is interesting because what if you lose to one team that happens to be 4-15-0...that team that ends up 18-1-0 should be punished for the win percentage of the team they lost to (which is bad in that one loss)? There would have to be a minimum number of losses to get an accurate avg etc. Fords could lose one game all year to Ursinus who didn't win a game yet beat JHU, F&M, and Dickinson but get punished for that kind of metric...interesting view point though.

Mid-Atlantic Fan

F&M has a better resume and is more than deserving of hosting. Haverford also has a good resume and also could have hosted. Both are very good teams with tough draws in NCAA's. I do think F&M has a better resume and is more deserving of hosting than the Fords but both teams have quality players and can make a run. Both could also get bounced in the opening weekend. There are plenty of intriguing match ups!

Mid-Atlantic Fan

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2018, 07:18:02 PM
Messiah hosting Baruch and a very difficult second match with either JHU or W&L.

F&M hosting Western Connecticut and a tough second match with either Eastern or Mary Wash.

Haverford will travel to Montclair and take on NYU in a tough opening draw. Winner most likely gets Montclair but Colby is clearly no pushover and will give Montclair all they can handle.

Etown also with a difficult draw but this is expected as they will face a hot Williams team at Cortland. Winner gets a tough task with Cortland in the 2nd round.

Keystone also with an expected difficult opener as they travel to Case for the first round.

PSU-Abington also gets rewarded with a difficult opener as they travel to John Carroll.

Lycoming will also join them at John Carroll as they face a pesky PSU-Behrend in the first round. 

Toughest to Easiest Draw
Keystone
PSU Abington
Eastern
Etown
Fords
Hopkins
Lyco
Messiah
F&M

Great to see F&M, JHU, and Lyco all receive at-large bids! 3 for the region is a great number and is what is expected rather than the norm of 2 at-large bids most years. I think there is a good chance one of the teams from this region can make a run. 

daddyEzK

Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 06, 2018, 02:46:49 PM
F&M has a better resume and is more than deserving of hosting. Haverford also has a good resume and also could have hosted. Both are very good teams with tough draws in NCAA's. I do think F&M has a better resume and is more deserving of hosting than the Fords but both teams have quality players and can make a run. Both could also get bounced in the opening weekend. There are plenty of intriguing match ups!

Hosting is a clear advantage for a team in the tournament.  F&M is not deserving based on conference finish, who they tied and rankings. They lost to three teams that are also in the tournament, who have to travel.   Yes, they have a high SOS and a very impressive RVR, but it ain't enough to overcome the other factors.  Maybe their true strength is that they have been consistently good for a number of years and the folks who gave out the hosting assignments didn't look hard enough this time.