South Region playoffs

Started by Llamaguy, October 11, 2005, 02:42:00 AM

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Josh Bowerman

#30
I see what you are getting at, Bill.  For clarification, what I'm assuming is:

HSU and UMHB both beat ETBU.
UMHB potentially beats HSU (that's the homer in me coming out   ;) )

UMHB obviously has to beat ETBU and HSU.  ETBU needs only to beat one of the two, as does HSU.

I don't think the ASC gets two in if the #2 team has two DIII losses.
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Bill McCabe

josh,  If ETBU only wins one of the 2 games, they also have 2 losses, although 1 is to a D2.  Will that have any bearing?

Josh Bowerman

I don't think so, because the committee only looks at DIII games.  Went back and clarified above.
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Bill McCabe

That favors ETBU in a big way.  UMHB has to beat HSU.  What if ETBU wins out, UMHB wins out, and HSU ends up with one loss.  WOW!

Josh Bowerman

That wouldn't happen, because HSU would have two losses if both UMHB and ETBU win out.
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Bill McCabe

Sorry Josh.  I was assuming HSU beats ETBU, UMHB beats HSU and these teams don't lose any other games.

Josh Bowerman

So ETBU would lose twice in-conference in your scenario, Bill?  Just asking for clarification.

Don't know how the tiebreaker would work, but assume it's applied across the board to conference games only.  Clarification on this point would be nice, but I gotta go and don't have time to look it up right now.
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Bill McCabe

I can't count Josh.  :) Deciding things on the field is so much easier to follow.  You are correct.  ETBU would have 2 losses.  I think there is a pretty good chance that the 2nd place ASC team will have 2 losses.  Hope I'm wrong on that one.

Llamaguy

Thanks for the heads up on the Handbook Ralph. That was a good read and very informative.

As for the predictions, I think I'll wait atleast 2 weeks as conference games will significantly thin the Pool B&C fields and the Pool A automatics will be much more clear.

Now a few points/questions about the NCAA's selection criteria:

Primary Criteria (not in priority order)

  • Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
  • Quality-of-wins index- only contests versus regional competition
  • In-region head-to-head competition
  • In-region results vs. common regional opponents
  • In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams(ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process)
  • Conference postseason contest(s) is included

Secondary Criteria

  • Out-of region head-to-head competition
  • Overall Division III won-loss percentage
  • Results vs. common non-DIII opponents
  • Results vs. Division III teams ranked in other regions
  • Overall win-loss percentage
  • Results vs. common out-of-region opponents
  • Overall Division III strength of schedule

Question 1: In the primary criteria, Does Conference postseason contest(s) refer to a conference championship game or previous record of a Conference member in past playoff years?

Question 2: It has been my thought that Overall win-loss percentage and strength of schedule were weighted pretty heavily as the top secondary criteria right under the primary criteria. Does anyone have any input on how the SOS would be quantified now that it has been replaced by the QOWI?

One last point, The big question in my mind is the disclaimer on the Primary criteria, (not in priority order), which can make it difficult to figure exactly what the committee will do since they have le-way on the weighting of each critria.
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!

Ron Boerger

Quote from: Llamaguy on October 11, 2005, 05:04:27 PM

Question 1: In the primary criteria, Does Conference postseason contest(s) refer to a conference championship game or previous record of a Conference member in past playoff years?
  • Current year.  Previous years are totally irrelevant.
[/b]
Question 2: It has been my thought that Overall win-loss percentage and strength of schedule were weighted pretty heavily as the top secondary criteria right under the primary criteria. Does anyone have any input on how the SOS would be quantified now that it has been replaced by the QOWI?
  • The QoWI is merely SOS by a different name.   That hasn't changed.  "SOS" no longer has any meaning for D3 selection.  IIRC SOS was a primary, not secondary criterion last year.
[/b]
One last point, The big question in my mind is the disclaimer on the Primary criteria, (not in priority order), which can make it difficult to figure exactly what the committee will do since they have le-way on the weighting of each critria.

  • They've got a weighting; the NCAA just isn't going to share it.  That way they can adjust it from season to season (that, and nobody can call them on it if they "get it wrong."  ::) )
[/b]

Ralph Turner

Bob Gregg, I don't know how many one loss teams there will be in Pool B/C!

This is getting exciting!

Llamaguy

Thanks Bfb! It should be fun to follow and as usual this topic becomes pretty hot about this time of year. ;)

I love Playoff Football! With a couple of "Big boys", (W&J, UMHB), with unexpected early losses and so many one loss teams,  looks like the playoffs have started now for alot of teams. Lose one more and you may be out, only time will tell.
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!

Ralph Turner

Llama guy, I understand that the reference to the conference post-season tournament is referring to the playoff game like the New England FC's.

Bob.Gregg

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2005, 05:54:23 PM
Bob Gregg, I don't know how many one loss teams there will be in Pool B/C!

Ralph, I don't know either, but I know this:

IF W&J runs the table to finish 9-1, the Presidents ARE getting an invitation (B or C)!
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Llamaguy

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2005, 06:09:13 PM
Llama guy, I understand that the reference to the conference post-season tournament is referring to the playoff game like the New England FC's.

Thanks! That is the way I interpreted also but since there were so few "conf. championship games" in DIII, wanted to make sure it didn't mean something else.
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!