2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

Started by PaulNewman, August 24, 2014, 02:13:42 PM

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Ron Boerger

#900
Quote from: Soccergeek on November 09, 2014, 10:18:29 PM
I'll add my predictions to the mix:
[...]

West (1)
Texas-Dallas

UT-D has an early season W against Trinity (TX) - good
They have bad losses to Birmingham-Southern,  Hardin-Simmons, UMHB (and a tie) plus a tie with Austin.   BSC and HSU are decent but unranked, making the losses 'bad'.

I wonder if the HSU loss yesterday is enough to push them below UC-Santa Cruz, who was ranked one spot below them last week and had no games last week.     UCSC certainly played more ranked teams during the season, though they didn't have much success (1-3-2) the better schedule might push them ahead of UT-D.


PaulNewman

Great job and analysis as always Christan.

A few teams prominently discussed in the thread that didn't make your bubble group....RPI, Camden, Kzoo,  Why Haverford but not Camden?  What if Kzoo had cracked the last regional ranking?  And on Colorado, I guess there is no such thing as good losses....3 one goal losses to one of the top 4 teams in the country (at least by polls).

Christan Shirk

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 10, 2014, 08:23:03 AM
Great job and analysis as always Christan.

A few teams prominently discussed in the thread that didn't make your bubble group....RPI, Camden, Kzoo,  Why Haverford but not Camden?  What if Kzoo had cracked the last regional ranking?  And on Colorado, I guess there is no such thing as good losses....3 one goal losses to one of the top 4 teams in the country (at least by polls).

I guess I just keep going back to the assumption that has served my predictions well in past years that the rankings do indeed very accurately foreshadow the eventual at-large selections.  If the committee throws out a bunch of curve balls this year, I may have to re-think my approach.  Based on previous seasons' selections, I just don't see Camden and Kalamazoo coming out of no where to snag a berth, but who knows.  Colorado was ranked until the final week, but selecting them would still buck history and the combination of a very low .500 SOS and no wins versus ranked teams (the two stats the committee seems to weigh most heavily), why would they move back into and far enough up the West rankings to be in the conversation? And what's the argument for RPI to climb ahead of Brockport (or it the thinking that both get invited?)?

Personally, I get the arguments in favor of some of these teams, but I'm trying to predict what the NCAA committee will do, not who I think is most deserving.  And I've had a pretty good track record (or luck?) in recent years with my prediction, but maybe this is the year I'm off the mark. We'll see soon enough.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Soccergeek

Good stuff, Christan, especially given the fact that you have a newborn at home.  I would only add two notes to your predictions:

- I believe Tufts is a definite bubble team due to their quarterfinal defeat and possibly one of the last ones in or out.

- I could see the committee looking at Kalamazoo and their three victories over Hope and putting them in Hope's shoes, for regional ranking purposes (i.e., concluding they should have been ranked in Hope's place and giving them credit for that).  If they did that, one could see Kzoo getting a Pool C bid.  However, it could just as easily go as you predict (i.e., they weren't ranked, so they don't qualify to be picked).

Clearly, there will be a lot of nervous teams this afternoon.

oldonionbag

While I  am not a Tufts fan, I am a fan of the NESCAC, and I must say that it would be a travesty for the Jumbos not to get a bid. I went back to see their resume and would just like to throw out some telling stats:

Only two losses on the year, one away to Brandeis (#7).
An UNDEFEATED regular season in arguably the toughest conference in D3 soccer.
Tied Amherst at home (#19), Bowdoin away (winner of the NESCAC conference tournament), and Middlebury away (another NESCAC bubble team who lost to Bowdoin in PKs in the conference semifinal).
Tufts led the NESCAC in both goals per game, at 2.2 (!), and goals against, at .59. To me, those stats alone make it almost inconceivable that Tufts would be on the bubble.

Additionally, in their quarter final loss, they outshot Conn College 20-10 and had 9 corners to the Camels' 1. Sometimes the ball does not bounce your way. Again, keep in mind that that was the SECOND loss all year for Tufts, and came in postseason play. Going undefeated in the NESCAC regular season is almost unheard of, and I do not think one fluke postseason loss should knock a team capable of such an accomplishment out of the NCAAs...

If Tufts does not get a bid, then the NCAA tournament will be without one of the most dangerous and exciting teams in the nation. I've watched several of their games this year, and I must say that I can really see them making a deep run. Anyway, I'm hoping for the best for this talented squad that I've enjoyed watching throughout the year.

lastguyoffthebench

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 10, 2014, 08:23:03 AM
Great job and analysis as always Christan.

A few teams prominently discussed in the thread that didn't make your bubble group....RPI, Camden, Kzoo,  Why Haverford but not Camden?  What if Kzoo had cracked the last regional ranking?  And on Colorado, I guess there is no such thing as good losses....3 one goal losses to one of the top 4 teams in the country (at least by polls).

As an NJAC and Camden supporter, I think Haverford would get the nod over Camden.

Haverford      60.5 win % (8 blemishes)       3-5-1    .604 SOS (before playing JHU, F&M, and Mules; 37-7-6)

Camden         61.4 win % (9 blemishes)      2-4-0    .589 SOS (before playing MSU and RU-N; 31-8)


Haverford leads in two of the three statistical categories and has the h2h W, but I think the South Atlantic is a stronger region as a whole.
Haverford made a move by playing 5 NJAC teams (finished 3-2 record). 
Camden had a schedule where they played top teams from various conf. (CNU - AQ, Lynchburg - AQ, F&M - Pool C lock, Eastern - lost in conf. final).   

Camden will be on the outside looking in because of the loss to Cabrini and Rowan.  If they were to finish 14-6-2, they'd be in.   


For me, it would be why Newark, but not Camden?

I think Kzoo is very deserving.  Should get in but probably won't over NPU because of SOS.  They have the better regional record and were a shot away in PKs from winning the AQ over Calvin.   Kzoo has a better record vs RRT and has the strong win over Chicago.


lastguyoffthebench


It's comical that we are talking about Tufts being worried for a bid, but a team like Coast Guard is presumably safe.


PaulNewman

Christan I am sure you will be VERY accurate as always. 

I see the difference now between Haverford (ranked all 3 weeks, and not at the bottom either) and Camden (not ranked at all any of the 3 weeks), even though on paper, not looking at the rankings, I don't see Haverford as having an edge on Camden.

I get RPI and would not have jumped them over Brockport.

Kzoo is probably the one I think has the strongest case to at least crack the bubble list, but again, I get that, so far, they were not ranked.

I think what threw off most of us amateurs, at least until seeing Christan's layout of the ranked teams, is North Park. After seeing the layout several of us scrambled and revised and put North Park in.  Important to remember that they tied Elmhurst rather than "lost."

The others that many have talked about quite a bit as in trouble are Dickinson and Newark.  Again, the layout helps show why they likely are not in trouble.

The teams that were   ranked, and I think all 3 weeks, and not getting much consideration in terms of even the bubble are Centre, St Olaf, Dominican, and Tex-Dallas (and I wouldn't have any of them in either but it is interesting going by the rankings emphasis).

I will be very curious to see where they place some of these teams and who gets the toughest quadrant (at least on paper).  I'm guessing the Mid/South Atlantic and Great Lakes/Central will be the toughest, although the latter will depend heavily on where they put Calvin, Wheaton and F&M.

Side note:  Wondering if the best team in the country barely talked about is Muhlenberg.  Great season for them.

lastguyoffthebench

Per Christan's sheet:

School (w/Record)                   SOS  
Brandeis (17-2-0)                   0.633
Rochester (9-5-3)                   0.627
Case Western (8-6-4)    0.607
Dickinson (11-5-2)                  0.604
Haverford (11-7-1)                   0.604
Emory (13-3-2)                   0.603
Wesleyan (8-5-3)                   0.6
North Park (13-5-1)                   0.597
Wheaton (Mass.) (16-3-2)    0.597
Centre (8-4-6)                   0.591
UC Santa Cruz (11-6-1)    0.589
Amherst (13-1-4)                   0.587
Carnegie Mellon (8-5-3)    0.586
Coast Guard (13-2-3)    0.58
RPI (12-4-3)                   0.58
Tufts (10-2-4)                   0.576
Loras (15-2-2)                   0.575
Franklin & Marshall (15-1-2)    0.573
DePauw (10-8-1)                   0.57
Brockport State (10-3-6)    0.568
Johns Hopkins (9-7-2)    0.567
Carleton (10-7-2)                   0.566
UW-Oshkosh (14-5-2)    0.56
Rutgers-Newark (15-5-0)    0.557
Ohio Wesleyan (15-4-2)    0.556
Salisbury (12-2-5)                   0.556
UW-Whitewater (13-4-4)    0.552
St. Olaf (12-5-2)                   0.55
Hope (13-7-1)                   0.548
Cortland State (14-4-1)    0.547
Dominican (14-5-2)     0.545
Gordon (14-5-2)                  0.545
Ohio Northern (12-8-1)    0.537
John Carroll (17-4-0)   0.535
Middlebury (9-3-5)                  0.533
WPI (14-5-0)                  0.533
Occidental (13-6-1)                  0.52
Texas-Dallas (13-4-3)   0.516
Lycoming (15-3-3)                  0.504
------------------------------------------------

PaulNewman

Tufts is gonna be fine.  I think the only reason some are nervous is because it is a little bit of "out of sight, out of mind."  Agree with your comment about Coast Guard too lastguy.  It seems to me they are one of the teams that benefits from a superficially inflated SOS, and Ryan H made a great point about how the UAA circularly feeds its high SOSs.  Rochester really should be on the bubble but not a single person has doubted that UR is getting in (and they will be dangeous and a handful to take out especially getting a second life).

Off Pitch

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 10, 2014, 09:41:07 AM

It's comical that we are talking about Tufts being worried for a bid, but a team like Coast Guard is presumably safe.

Except that Coast Guard has a better winning % against a stronger SOS AND a better record vs ranked teams.  It is just a very unusual year.  I also think Tufts is very safe and not in bubble territory.

Christan Shirk

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 10, 2014, 09:49:23 AM
Per Christan's sheet:

School (w/Record)                   SOS 
Brandeis (17-2-0)                   0.633
Rochester (9-5-3)                   0.627
Case Western (8-6-4)    0.607
Dickinson (11-5-2)                  0.604
Haverford (11-7-1)                   0.604
Emory (13-3-2)                   0.603
Wesleyan (8-5-3)                   0.6
North Park (13-5-1)                   0.597
Wheaton (Mass.) (16-3-2)    0.597
Centre (8-4-6)                   0.591
UC Santa Cruz (11-6-1)    0.589
Amherst (13-1-4)                   0.587
Carnegie Mellon (8-5-3)    0.586
Coast Guard (13-2-3)    0.58
RPI (12-4-3)                   0.58
Tufts (10-2-4)                   0.576
Loras (15-2-2)                   0.575
Franklin & Marshall (15-1-2)    0.573
DePauw (10-8-1)                   0.57
Brockport State (10-3-6)    0.568
Johns Hopkins (9-7-2)    0.567
Carleton (10-7-2)                   0.566
UW-Oshkosh (14-5-2)    0.56
Rutgers-Newark (15-5-0)    0.557
Ohio Wesleyan (15-4-2)    0.556
Salisbury (12-2-5)                   0.556
UW-Whitewater (13-4-4)    0.552
St. Olaf (12-5-2)                   0.55
Hope (13-7-1)                   0.548
Cortland State (14-4-1)    0.547
Dominican (14-5-2)     0.545
Gordon (14-5-2)                  0.545
Ohio Northern (12-8-1)    0.537
John Carroll (17-4-0)   0.535
Middlebury (9-3-5)                  0.533
WPI (14-5-0)                  0.533
Occidental (13-6-1)                  0.52
Texas-Dallas (13-4-3)   0.516
Lycoming (15-3-3)                  0.504
------------------------------------------------
Just to be clear, I did NOT compute updated SOS numbers. Those are the ones from the 3rd weekly data sheets.  I only updated the W-L-T records and record versus ranked teams.  SOS is too much to compute for so many teams, so I just assume that as this point, one week doesn't make too much a difference and by now we have the gist of where teams' SOS stack up.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Christan Shirk

Quote from: Soccergeek on November 10, 2014, 09:09:54 AM- I believe Tufts is a definite bubble team due to their quarterfinal defeat and possibly one of the last ones in or out.

My distinct impression for a decade of closely following and analyzing the rankings and at-large selections is that no heed is given to whether a game was a conference tournament game or simply a regular season game.  Thus the only penalty for losing a quarterfinal game is the direct hit to the W-L-T record (and the record vs. ranked, if applicable).  In other words, I've seen no evidence that it's an extra strike against a team to exit early from a conference tournament.  And quite frankly it shouldn't.  So one team gets upset in a non-conference game or even a conference game, but another team has their encounter with the mischievousness of the soccer gods in a conference quarterfinal and that should be held against them more than the other team's loss?  Now, indirectly it could cost a team the chance to pick up a win vs. ranked in the semifinals depending on who they would have met.  But the bottom line for me is that conference tournament games seem to be treated as just another game between two teams, nothing more, nothing less.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

All NESCAC

Quote from: oldonionbag on November 10, 2014, 09:34:33 AM
While I  am not a Tufts fan, I am a fan of the NESCAC, and I must say that it would be a travesty for the Jumbos not to get a bid. I went back to see their resume and would just like to throw out some telling stats:

Only two losses on the year, one away to Brandeis (#7).
An UNDEFEATED regular season in arguably the toughest conference in D3 soccer.
Tied Amherst at home (#19), Bowdoin away (winner of the NESCAC conference tournament), and Middlebury away (another NESCAC bubble team who lost to Bowdoin in PKs in the conference semifinal).
Tufts led the NESCAC in both goals per game, at 2.2 (!), and goals against, at .59. To me, those stats alone make it almost inconceivable that Tufts would be on the bubble.

Additionally, in their quarter final loss, they outshot Conn College 20-10 and had 9 corners to the Camels' 1. Sometimes the ball does not bounce your way. Again, keep in mind that that was the SECOND loss all year for Tufts, and came in postseason play. Going undefeated in the NESCAC regular season is almost unheard of, and I do not think one fluke postseason loss should knock a team capable of such an accomplishment out of the NCAAs...

If Tufts does not get a bid, then the NCAA tournament will be without one of the most dangerous and exciting teams in the nation. I've watched several of their games this year, and I must say that I can really see them making a deep run. Anyway, I'm hoping for the best for this talented squad that I've enjoyed watching throughout the year.

Oldonionbag....I am in agreement with you that Tufts deserves to be in....they lost to Conn in a wind driven rainstorm and had Conn on the ropes the entire 2nd half but given the conditions and bounce (or in this case hydroplane) of the ball they don't get a result vs Conn, but they are absolutely a tremendous team and should be in the tourney....going undefeated in the NESCAC is no small fete.

PaulNewman

If there is a surprise based on Christan's forecast, I think it will come from Brockport or Kzoo, and not sure which one I would give the edge to.  Will not be shocked either if WPI gets a bid.  Would be amazing to see the Centennial and NEWMAC both get 4.