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Started by Pat Coleman, September 22, 2005, 03:16:50 PM

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gordonmann

Kid:

Not to suggest painful computations, but you need to take your analysis one step further to opponents'-opponents winning percentage.

For example, maybe Team X beats a 3-1 Team Y.  But who has Team Y beat to get to 3-1 : Pee Wee Tech, Wassamatta U and Y-Even Bother A&M.  Suddenly that win over a 3-1 team doesn't look so impressive.

To put this in a concrete perspective, Monmouth has beaten 6 teams with a combined win percentage of .621.  Pretty impressive.

But do you know how many of their six victims have wins against teams with winning records?  One (Ripon over Lake Forest).  The rest have wins over MacMurray, Concordia (Ill.) and Macalester.  Not so impressive.

Suddenly Monmouth doesn't look like it's in the top 10 for SOS...

smedindy

Then it would be like the RPI...which isn't such a bad thing, really, especially if it angers up the big school punks.

Ron Boerger

Hey, Keith, don't beat yourself up for not getting ATN done on Wednesdays.  It takes the pressure off us regional guys to get ours done on Monday, don'tcha know  ;D

K-Mack

Yeah, except that's not a good thing for the thousands of readers each week, just us.

Plus, that makes me like a QB that shows up late for practice :)

Really, it's no big, I'm not stressing ... I work Sunday through 3 a.m. Tuesday non-stop, so I don't even start formulating things until Tuesday afternoon. And having an unreliable home computer has sent me back to the stone ages ... although I'm really realizing how much information is actually in these media guides.

But also not having it done means it hangs over me too. So if I want to watch a show or play PS2 after the baby goes to sleep Wednesday night, if it's not done, I feel all guilty ... Such is the life though :) That's why I can't do basketball too. I'd lose it.

Also part of it is my fault. It's not like Pat says "gimme 3,000 words!" It just happens like that. As you can probably see from my overly serious answer to a harmless joke.

Anyone out there have anything football-related they want to talk about? Hey wildcat, tell us that road trip story again!
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

smedindy

K-Mack, you do know that Earlham's starting QB was lost for the year. He got hurt during the Manchester game, tried to play against Anderson, and then had to give it up. They're now playing with a freshman QB after the converted wideout that was playing QB got hurt against Wabash.

K-Mack

Yes,
I am aware. Perhaps I should have let everyone else know. Very significant. (Duh). Karma for you.

OK,
time to share some feedback, going back to the beginning of the month. I withheld the names just in case people weren't trying to be put out there, even though it's pretty much understood that you can be if you write me. But I'm nice like that.

Some of these should spark the board up some.

QuoteHello Mr. McMillan, I love reading your column on D3Football.  I am a big supporter of DIII Athletics.  However I think there was a typo, but it isnt that important, though a loss is still a loss......Macalester didn't get shut out by St. Olaf, the final score was St. Olaf 71  Macalester 10

Thanks

TJ

PS  You are the man!

TJ, correct on both counts.  ;)

QuoteBelow is the result of your feedback form.  It was submitted by
Don\'t worry about it () on  Friday, September 30, 2005 at 02:50:09 AM
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subject:
Age: 20
Hometown:
Team I follow: Millsaps
Notes: You keep talking about the DePauw/Trinity tie in the SCAC, but you need to keep you eye out for still undefeated Centre and a well coached, hungry Millsaps team. DePauw and Trinity are beatable... and what if they fall? The SCAC is a lot more even throughout than you might think. This year might have a few suprises for you coming out of the SCAC. Mark my words and watch...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK age 20, I am not worried about your name, and I too expected a little more out of Millsaps ... but it appears the only SCAC surprise this season is the cancelled game.

Next!

QuoteYep.  I am a 5th year senior at Albion College.  I am one of the biggest fans here.  I have only missed one home game here in 5 years, and I usually go to most of the road games.  Hopefully this year Albion can make it back to the Playoffs...which has been a long slump for us here.  I also like listening to games from other schools across DIII.   D3Football.com is by far the best sports site out there.  I think you have a great column.  You are very knowledgeable, and its great there are people like you in the sports community. 

Wish you well.  Have a great weekend

xx

Go Brits!  Hoping to be the "unofficial mascot" at Albion 

When the feedback is this good, how can we not share it?

QuoteFriday, September 30, 2005 at 09:46:50 AM
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subject: Well-balanced offense and defense
Age: 63
Hometown: Hot Springs, arkansas
Team I follow: Monmouth college
Notes: Your quote  "In the MWC, Monmouth and Grinnell have allowed 110 points, while St. Norbert has given up 111. If their defenses are equal, for the moment and the sake of argument, then it goes to show how much difference it makes to be good all around. Each is allowing nearly four TDs a game, but the Scots are 4-0 with 172 points scored, the Green Knights are 2-2 with 102 and the Pioneers are 1-3 with 77."

Here is the actual situation regarding Monmouth. ---Other than the comeback win vs. St. Norbert's, here are the scores for the Monmouth, Ill. Scots' three games after the third quarter:
37-6 vs. Concordia
48-12 vs. Ripon
56-8 vs. Beloit

In these 3 games Monmouth "mass substituted" 2nd and 3rd string players for most of the second half.  Calling off the dogs, as they say.

I call that well-balanced.

Bob

Yes, some of your friends were very keen on pointing that out, as you'll see.

(more to come)
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

I believe there's a quote within a quote here, but I edited it in ...

QuoteDear Keith,

Thanks for all the references to Monmouth this week.  I'm sure the 4-0 start doesn't hurt.  And, yes...The Knox game will probably be a complete dud.  But we Scots don't mind all that much.  J

Regarding the number crunching...I'm going to copy & paste a post a made earlier this week about the Scots fourth quarter defense.  If needed, I'm sure the Scots D could best the 77 points allowed.  Not a criticism, of course.  If you do a number crunching piece about the first 3 quarters (before the dogs are called off) perhaps Monmouth will make your list again.  Thanks for the love.

"Scottie"

"Monmouth seemed to have a great day in the first half scoring everytime they touched the ball.  But seemed to call the dogs off in the second half." 

QuoteJester 76

Yeah, I'd say Monmouth called off the dogs.  Other than the comeback win vs. SNC, here are the scores for the Scots' three games after the third quarter:
37-6 vs. Concordia
48-12 vs. Ripon
56-14 vs. Beloit

Hopefully, calling off the dogs doesn't hurt in DIII like it does in the BCS Poll where the "quality of the win" is judged in part by margin of victory. 

On to Lake Forest...

Unused note from our features writer...
Quotegrant cochran (whom we wrote about in the cochran brothers story 2 yrs ago) got married this summer. they had the wedding reception on the fb field. his wife said that would be ok, but no throwing of a FB allowed...grant is an academic AA with pretty unique ambition...he's going to go to medical school with hopes of someday becoming the US Surgeon General...

kevin beattie at rpi has more if youre intrigured

Um, he's right. We probably should have pursued that story. On the field? Nice.

QuoteKeep your eye on Texas Lutheran, they played Mary Hardin Baylor tough in their house and had a chance to win it. Their game against Trinity (Texas) was their first outing and Trinity's second, again they were in position to win but Lightning dealay and first game jitters took the wind out of their sails. Their first 2 possessions Trinity had no answer for TLU's passing game. A different Salinas came out after the delay was a little off target for 2 quarters. They could beat Hardinn Simmons in the last game and win the ASC. Of course this all depends on injuries and that game is a long way off.

Yeah, I think both you and I kept a little too much eye on TLU. Howard Pain?

QuoteI would just like to point out that two of the three losses suffered by the CCIW were at the hands of IIAC opponents.  Only one win of the CCIW's comes from the IIAC.  So, in review the IIAC has a winning record over the CCIW.

Simpson over IWU
Central over Augustana
Milikin over Wartburg

COOCOOFORCOEKOHAWK!

Right. What she said.

(But was it really necessary to review after two sentences? I'm ADD and all, but dang)  ;)

QuoteKeith,

So this past week was not a good showing for Ferrum. Though we did put up 55 points.  There still seems to be a lack of respect for Ferrum. I mean HSC still has more quality points on the polls? How is that? Everyone knew they would lose to Bridgewater? They play in a worse conference than we do. I mean we are  5-0 and putting up huge numbers and our defense was stellar up until this past game. Though we slacked during the first half, we still had the game in control. I am just wondering whats Ferrum got to do?

Thanks,

Remember, these are old still. My response at the time:

QuoteWell,
as we mentioned last week, consistency over time is rewarded. Early in a
season, a lot of people judge by 'traditional strength' and what they've
learned to expect, especially if they feel there aren't enough results
this season to go on.

When you start out unranked, you just have to win consistently and beat
your good opponents, either ones with impressive records or recognizable
names. Some of the voters are from the midwest or west coast, and really
have had little reason to pay attention to Ferrum until now. Me, having
played, lived and covered football in Virginia, I already know. And I'm
sure some voters are more thorough than others.

Hang tight. Keep winning, and no one can ignore you, you know?

Keith McMillan
Keith@D3football.com

P.S. the 55-40 caught me off guard too, but good teams have to be able to
win any kind of game, shootout, bad weather, defensive struggle, etc., so
that's a good sign.

P.P.S. As far as HSC, if people look at Bridgewater as a perennial top
25, the Tigers might have even helped themselves with a close loss. I
wasn't voting for them last week, and aren't this week ... but I could
see how someone could convince himself to.

QuoteSun. Oct. 2
Keith,

        I noticed Monmouth got 1, exactly 1 vote, for this week's D3 poll.  I think the Scots should be getting a little more respect.  They are a combined 22-3 in their last 25 games and ended St. Norbert's 56 week stay as the best team in the MWC this year with a 28-20 win in De Pere.  They outscored the Green Knights 21-0 in the second half and would've blown them out had it not been for a sloppy first half.  They followed that up with a 34-0 pounding of Lake Forest at Lake Forest. I think the reason they aren't getting much respect from the out of region writers and coaches is that the statistics have been a little deceiving in some of their games.  For example, their other 3 wins are 40-26 vs. Concordia (Wis.), 48-34 vs. Ripon, and 56-30 vs. Beloit.  Now, here are the scores after 3 quarters when they took the starters out; 40-6, 48-12, and 56-14!  This team is going to surprise someone when the playoffs start, and it won't be me.  You should take a look at the individual statistics of some of these guys if you get a chance; Mitch Tanney (QB), Evan Hafner (WR), Duante Daniels (RB), and Justin Zigler (LB). 

xxx xxxxxxxx
MC alum.

Yeah, Monmouth, same deal as Ferrum. You just have to keep winning to make that name for yourself in the voters eyes. I guess I am speaking for all of us, but maybe I shouldn't be. That's just an opinion.

Also, you can't overvalue who you play against. For instance, say St. Norbert had played Whitewater close. They might get more respect for losing to a good opponent than another team would for blowing out a team that isn't very good.

And as I always say, it takes patience. Even if every conference had an undefeated team at the end of the season, they couldn't all be in the top 25. There are 26 conferences, plus independents. There are 32 playoff spots. Where in D I-A you have 119 schools and about half with a real chance at getting ranked, d3 has 231 ...

Also, since we don't have TV coverage and such for out of region teams, out-of-conference play and playoffs (guaranteed out of conference play against top opponents) is really where teams earn their respect.

Just some thoughts, because there are a lot of unbeaten teams not ranked, and there are every year.

Wow, still on Oct. 2.

More to come later, I guess.

Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: smedindy on October 07, 2005, 12:39:34 AM
Those extra few slots really open things up a bit.

Going back a few pages, I agree with this as much as anything ... and have been speculating to my heart's desire on the Pool B thread. Pool C will follow soon, I'm sure.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Yeah,
Kid's chart is helpful in some ways ... but you can't tell me Bowdoin is better than Linfield :)

Quote from: gordonmann on October 12, 2005, 04:50:21 PM
Kid:

Not to suggest painful computations, but you need to take your analysis one step further to opponents'-opponents winning percentage.

For example, maybe Team X beats a 3-1 Team Y.  But who has Team Y beat to get to 3-1 : Pee Wee Tech, Wassamatta U and Y-Even Bother A&M.  Suddenly that win over a 3-1 team doesn't look so impressive.

To put this in a concrete perspective, Monmouth has beaten 6 teams with a combined win percentage of .621.  Pretty impressive.

But do you know how many of their six victims have wins against teams with winning records?  One (Ripon over Lake Forest).  The rest have wins over MacMurray, Concordia (Ill.) and Macalester.  Not so impressive.

Suddenly Monmouth doesn't look like it's in the top 10 for SOS...
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

wildcat11

Hey Keith,

Does Linfield only having 8 games games (only 6 D-3 games) hurt their chance at being the #1 seed in the West?

Ralph Turner

Wildcat, if another undefeated West Region team has more West Region wins, a favorable QOWI, a win over another playoff team and compares favorably in any common opponents, then I think that non-Linfield team has done everything that it could to get top seed.

My two cents...

HScoach

There is NO WAY that someone other than the undefeated defending champs is the #1 seed in their region.  If they lost a game, then sure.  But it's never going to happen as long as the champs are undefeated.    The NCAA has done some dumb things in D3, but not even they are dumb enough to do that.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Knightstalker

HSCoach, now that you have challenged the NCAA to be even dumber they will probably do just what you said they wouldn't do.   ;D

"In the end we will survive rather than perish not because we accumulate comfort and luxury but because we accumulate wisdom"  Colonel Jack Jacobs US Army (Ret).

Phife

The NCAA is so dumb that I bet they go to a BCS-style poll that is determinative and bowl games for D-III.  Sheesh.
Sig Free Zone...

K-Mack

Wildcat,
I agree with hscoach (stunning, I know...)

You have to throw computations out the window in favor of common sense here. An unbeaten defending champ is top seed in its region, especially if no one has played them closely.

And actually, since the dropped game (No. 9) was Lewis & Clark, not playing might actually help your SOS ... although I guess the NCAA scale that gives points for a home win, etc., may not be as affected by that.

Honestly, even with a 10-0 SJU, a 10-0 Whitewater (maybe not in the West bracket), a 9-0 Oxy or whatever, Linfield has to be the top seed.

That's my unprofessional opinion.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.