Pool C -- 2014

Started by wally_wabash, October 14, 2014, 04:07:07 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

wally_wabash

Coming soon to this space...playoff projections! 

Something new this year that I'm going to do is that I'm going to use the regional fan rankings as a substitute for regional rankings.  We've got a lot of really smart people putting time and thought into those things so I think it'll be good to pull that input in between now and November when we get official NCAA regional rankings.  The exception being the West which doesn't have any fan balloting/rankings on Post Patterns so that will continue to be left up to my own whims. 

I'll try to have something out here sometime tomorrow.  Just a quick overview- the Pool breakdown is 24/2/6 (A/B/C) this year pending the SAA's AQ status.  I know Pat had mentioned that he has a question in to the home office in Indy about whether or not the SAA gets an auto bid or not.  This is significant because if the SAA goes to Pool A, I believe Pool B shrinks to 1 (if my math is correct) and this is significant because it's not just a matter of moving the SAA champ from B and A with a zero net change to the field.  The SAA champ may not stack up in Pool B- as such, moving that at-large spot from Pool B to the SAA champ makes life really, really difficult for teams out there like Chicago, TLU, and the MASCAC champ because that one Pool B bid is going to Wesley and without a second Pool B slot, the door is more or less going to be slammed shut on these other teams. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 14, 2014, 04:07:07 PM
We've got a lot of really smart people putting time and thought into those things...

Whoa now, don't flatter yourself.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wally_wabash

Ok, I'm jumping ahead of the North region poll here because I'm not sure if I'll have a chance to get back to this later this week.  A couple of notes here:
- The Pool A projections are a reflection of current league standings.  In cases of ties, I'm picking who I think will win (I can't go figure out each conferences tiebreak rules) and we'll adjust as we go over the next month or so. 
- For the at-large teams, I'm also not making an attempt to predict future results: this is intended to be a snapshot of how things look through the last week of competition.  The one caveat to this is where we have leagues with a bunch of 1-loss teams bunched up (like the MIAC).  In that case I'm taking one team from that league and leaving the rest out.  We know how the committee feels about giving at-large bids to three teams from one region so we can guess that they'll have the same prejudice against three teams from the same conference.  And, the reality is that all of the teams in that type of situation more or less still have to play each other so we aren't going to wind up with three 9-1 teams from one league. 
- Also note that the records I'm posting are regional records, with D3 records mixed in where appropriate.  Non D3 results aren't of any particular importance. 

And with that, here we go.  Here's your look at Pool A:


   League   
Team   
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   North Central   
   ECFC   
   Castleton State   
   E8   
   St. John Fisher   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Wartburg   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MAC   
   Widener   
   MIAA   
   Trine   
   MIAC   
   Bethel   
   MWC   
   Carroll   
   NACC   
   Concordia (Wis)   
   NCAC   
   Wabash   
   NEFC   
   Western New England   
   NJAC   
   Montclair State   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Hampden-Sydney   
   PAC   
   Washington & Jefferson   
   SCIAC   
   Chapman   
   UMAC   
   St. Scholastica   
   USAC   
   Maryville   
   WIAC   
   UW-Whitewater   

Pool B (2 bids):
Wesley (4-0, 5-0 vs. D3, 0.718 SOS) - Lock it up.  With Wesley finished with Division III competition, there is zero percent chance that the first (and maybe only) of these bids doesn't belong to Wesley.  Wesley is also 3-0 vs. RROs (regionally ranked opponents) according to the pollsters.  Wesley will be mentioned in this space each week for accounting purposes, but this is the probably the last breakdown of their résumé  I'll do because it's not changing between now and the end of the season. 

Texas Lutheran (5-0, 0.579 SOS) - TLU is hanging on to this spot just over Chicago based on SOS.  TLU has an SOS drain coming over the last three weeks of the season, but if they can win out after the UMHB game, I think they've got a decent shot at hanging on to this bid. 

Teams on the Pool B watch list: Chicago, Centre, Framingham State, Rhodes, Hendrix, Fitchburg State

Pool C (6 bids):

Round and round we go.  Up first:
John Carroll (5-0, 0.558 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO)
Thomas More (4-2, 0.452 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Delaware Valley (5-0, 0.574, 1-0 vs RRO)
UW-SP (5-0, 0.558 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO)

I think you can see where this is headed.  Del Val has the best SOS and a favorable result against regionally ranked Lycoming.  Could arge that Point's RRO result against North Central is more impressive, but it's a bit of a moot point. 

Round 2:
John Carroll (5-0, 0.558 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO)
Thomas More (4-2, 0.452 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.600 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
UW-SP (5-0, 0.558 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO)

Certainly Buffalo State looks nice with the two quality wins and the higher SOS, but they do have the loss which negates some of that good stuff.  I'm taking Stevens Point here with the North Central win as their advantage over the other teams here. 

Round 3:
John Carroll (5-0, 0.558 SOS, 1-0 vs RRO)
Thomas More (4-2, 0.452 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.600 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (4-1, 0.526 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

JCU and Stevens Point have essentially the same body of work to this point.  Beating North Central is a shade better than beating Heidelberg, hence JCU waits their turn.  But you could easily have taken these two teams in either order. 

Round 4:
Wittenberg (4-0, 0.519 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (4-2, 0.452 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Buffalo State (5-1, 0.600 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (4-1, 0.526 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Now we get to the Bengals.  I know I said their loss hurts and earlier said that non-D3 results aren't important, but way back in the back of our minds we know that Witt lost a game to Butler who maybe isn't that great in 2014.  The big SOS advantage for Buff State wins the day here. 

Round 5:
Wittenberg (4-0, 0.519 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (4-2, 0.452 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Rowan (3-2, 0.681 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (4-1, 0.526 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Full disclosure- Because Buffalo State was taken, Ithaca and Salisbury got tossed out even though they would have been the next two in line out of the East.  Rowan is an interesting case because look at that SOS.  But they've only played two ranked teams and they've lost to both, so it's hard to give them an overwhelming amount of credit.  The selection here is Wittenberg with the undefeated (mostly) record and an RRO win that's going to get increasingly impressive as DePauw keeps winning. 

Round six:
Wheaton (5-0, 0.323 SOS, 0-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (4-2, 0.452 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Rowan (3-2, 0.681 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (4-1, 0.526 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

The Cobbers currently sit atop the runner-up milieu in the MIAC, but have a long way to go to hang on to this bid.  That's a rugged league.  Wheaton is undefeated here, but they have a serious SOS problem.  The good news for Wheaton is that everybody they play from here on out will increase their OWP (currently 230 out of 231), but they're also not going to get a lot of help out of Kalamazoo and Eau Claire.  Wheaton doesn't have much (any) room for error this season. 

Thomas More was an interesting case as I did this today.  They sat there for six rounds, which as I understand the way vote capital works in the selection room (it shouldn't work at all, but it's a real thing unfortunately), it's hard to imagine a team sitting there from the very beginning of the Pool C process and not being selected.  Had the rankings broke another way and, say, Ursinus was in front of Thomas More it would have been a really tough decision there in the last couple of picks. 

And just for fun, the next team I would have pulled up from the West (Johnnie and Tommies are dismissed) would have been PLU...PLU also has SOS problems and they're going to want to really, really pull for carnage in the WIAC and MIAC or else they won't get their rematch with Linfield in week 12. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

D3MAFAN

I think Buff State would received the Pool A bid in the E 8 today. Both SJF and Buff State are 3-1 in conference and Buff State beat Salisbury which Beat SJF.

wally_wabash

Quote from: D3MAFAN-MG on October 15, 2014, 10:43:15 AM
I think Buff State would received the Pool A bid in the E 8 today. Both SJF and Buff State are 3-1 in conference and Buff State beat Salisbury which Beat SJF.

That looks like a three way tie to me and...
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2014, 10:38:52 AM
- The Pool A projections are a reflection of current league standings.  In cases of ties, I'm picking who I think will win (I can't go figure out each conferences tiebreak rules) and we'll adjust as we go over the next month or so.  

Everything you just said is true, but as we look down the road in the E8, there are way too many games left (in particular a h2h between Buff State and SJF) for the Buff State beat Salisbury beat SJF train to be germane.   Am I fudging a little there by going with SJF in the projection?  Yeah, a little.  But I think there's some common sense behind it. 

To address the point though, what happens if Buff State is A and SJF is C?  Net change to my projected field is probably nothing.  Fisher becomes the first team on the board from the East...my order of selection then probably goes UWSP, JCU, Witt, SJF, Del Val, C-M.  Maybe C-M, SJF, Del Val.  Either way, the 32 stay the same. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

BashDad


Hawks88

You know what could make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous? What if TLU were to pull off the upset this week and Chicago were to upset(?) Bethel. Both could then easily win out. Then if Centre were to win out there would be 4 undefeated teams for two Pool B spots.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 15, 2014, 11:36:38 AM
You know what could make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous? What if TLU were to pull off the upset this week and Chicago were to upset(?) Bethel. Both could then easily win out. Then if Centre were to win out there would be 4 undefeated teams for two Pool B spots.

That sure would make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous.  But the odds of all three of those teams finishing undefeated are not very good.

Chicago beating Bethel would be a big upset.  I'm pulling for it as a UAA alum, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.

TLU beating UMHB would be an even bigger upset.

Centre has an OK chance to finish undefeated, but Rhodes is a formidable obstacle standing in the way.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

D3MAFAN

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 15, 2014, 11:54:25 AM
Quote from: Hawks88 on October 15, 2014, 11:36:38 AM
You know what could make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous? What if TLU were to pull off the upset this week and Chicago were to upset(?) Bethel. Both could then easily win out. Then if Centre were to win out there would be 4 undefeated teams for two Pool B spots.

That sure would make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous.  But the odds of all three of those teams finishing undefeated are not very good.

Chicago beating Bethel would be a big upset.  I'm pulling for it as a UAA alum, but it doesn't seem very likely to me.

TLU beating UMHB would be an even bigger upset.

Centre has an OK chance to finish undefeated, but Rhodes is a formidable obstacle standing in the way.

IF and that is a big IF those team do remain undefeated, I would not have a problem with them taking a spot from some other credible Pool C teams. I know some may and are better, but for those teams to win out, they would have as you mentioned would had beaten some really good teams and showed themselves worthy. As far as the other possible Pool C, I would easily and happily say, win you conference and you are in.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 15, 2014, 11:36:38 AM
You know what could make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous? What if TLU were to pull off the upset this week and Chicago were to upset(?) Bethel. Both could then easily win out. Then if Centre were to win out there would be 4 undefeated teams for two Pool B spots.

It would be interesting to see where those teams land in the regional rankings should all of that play out. 

I can't imagine a scenario where an undefeated team doesn't make the field, but the placement of Centre in the South region would be of particular interest.  If they beat Rhodes, Rhodes is unlikely to be regionally ranked which means Centre would have zero results against RROs.  I'm not holding out much hope for a quality SOS either.  So it comes down to whether or not Centre would be ranked higher than somebody like E&H or Muhlenberg or even Thomas More...and if they wouldn't be, Centre may not even get discussed for selection.  It's an interesting hypothetical. 

All of that said, TLU isn't beating UMHB.  Not.  A.  Chance.  Chicago is a heavy, heavy underdog on the road as well.  Ironically, the team that I believe is maybe third in this little group of three has the best chance to wind up undefeated, and if they do, they'll probably join Wesley as a Pool B selection.  But they have to go unbeaten.  Centre doesn't have wiggle room. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

AO

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2014, 01:19:31 PM
Quote from: Hawks88 on October 15, 2014, 11:36:38 AM
You know what could make a lot of Pool C candidates nervous? What if TLU were to pull off the upset this week and Chicago were to upset(?) Bethel. Both could then easily win out. Then if Centre were to win out there would be 4 undefeated teams for two Pool B spots.

  Chicago is a heavy, heavy underdog on the road as well.
I put the number at 21.5 in the pick-em's.  5 of 9 pickers so far have taken Bethel to cover the spread.  Massey predicts 28-3.  Giganto upset if it happens.

02 Warhawk

Assuming UWW runs the WIAC table.....

It looks like the only way a WIAC team can get a Pool C bid is if Stevens Point knocks off Platteville this weekend. If UWP would win that game, I don't think a 2-loss UWP team gets a bid. Even though their only losses are against NCC and UWW. Not sure if the committee rewards a strong SOS when a team has two-losses.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 15, 2014, 02:15:37 PM
Assuming UWW runs the WIAC table.....

It looks like the only way a WIAC team can get a Pool C bid is if Stevens Point knocks off Platteville this weekend. If UWP would win that game, I don't think a 2-loss UWP team gets a bid. Even though their only losses are against NCC and UWW. Not sure if the committee rewards a strong SOS when a team has two-losses.
SJF got an at large last year with two losses in the E8.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

02 Warhawk

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 15, 2014, 02:32:16 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 15, 2014, 02:15:37 PM
Assuming UWW runs the WIAC table.....

It looks like the only way a WIAC team can get a Pool C bid is if Stevens Point knocks off Platteville this weekend. If UWP would win that game, I don't think a 2-loss UWP team gets a bid. Even though their only losses are against NCC and UWW. Not sure if the committee rewards a strong SOS when a team has two-losses.
SJF got an at large last year with two losses in the E8.

Yes, great point. They had those two road conference losses. Of course it all depends on who the other Pool C candidates will be as well.

wally_wabash

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 15, 2014, 03:46:44 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 15, 2014, 02:32:16 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on October 15, 2014, 02:15:37 PM
Assuming UWW runs the WIAC table.....

It looks like the only way a WIAC team can get a Pool C bid is if Stevens Point knocks off Platteville this weekend. If UWP would win that game, I don't think a 2-loss UWP team gets a bid. Even though their only losses are against NCC and UWW. Not sure if the committee rewards a strong SOS when a team has two-losses.
SJF got an at large last year with two losses in the E8.

Yes, great point. They had those two road conference losses. Of course it all depends on who the other Pool C candidates will be as well.

Maybe even moreso, it matters who the other at-large candidates are in your own region.  SJF got tremendous help in week 11 to climb up to the front of the East's at-large line last year, and it seems like part of the game is getting to the table first.  So could a multiple loss WIAC team get ranked ahead of 1-loss runners up elsewhere?  That's a big thing to watch. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire