Big Dance

Started by Falconer, November 11, 2019, 02:34:57 PM

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Gregory Sager

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 12, 2019, 08:34:13 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 12, 2019, 03:50:56 PM
A little off topic, but what is the best, most unlikely based on location grass field in D3?  My gut vote is SLU....remarkable pitch given the location, and the crew there must spend hours and hours most of the year keeping the field looking that good.

Not sure but I die a little inside whenever a school replaces a natural field with artificial turf.  I realize it's a ton more work but a properly kept natural field will always be superior

An awful lot of schools don't have the luxury of using a grass field. Not only does it take more money and manpower to maintain (and, yeah, I know that turf costs big money to install, but you can fundraise for a new playing surface better than you can fundraise for a grounds crew), but a very large percentage of D3 schools play multiple sports on the same surface, with football and lacrosse being the two most common crossovers with soccer. Grass simply isn't going to hold up to all that wear and tear. And in places where the weather gets rough, a grass field can be compromised pretty easily, especially after the first frost and the first snowfall. Plus, a well-installed, relatively new Field Turf surface will have advantages in drainage and grip over grass.

In my conference, the CCIW, there's only one school left that plays on grass, Illinois Wesleyan. And IWU's soccer pitch is terrible. I call it "the cow pasture". It's a sprained ankle waiting to happen -- and yet it's in better shape than the grass fields formerly used by the two most recent holdouts who finally gave up and moved soccer to their Field Turf football fields, Millikin and Elmhurst. Their old grass fields were absolute nightmares.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

PaulNewman

Evansville 67 #1 Kentucky 64......SUNY Maritime, you got this!

PaulNewman

#32
Congrats to Mary Washington for highest SoS in the field (.636), followed by Chicago, Middlebury, Gettysburg and Hopkins.


discnerd


For the most part I agree.  See my rankings here.


The post has everyone's probability based on my model of advancing to each round up to the championship given the probabilities of their opponents making it to play them.


Most likely Final Four is:


Franklin and Marshall
Mary Washington
Chicago
Johns Hopkins



Mary Washington is the favorite to win the Championship, if only because Hopkins has the worst Quadrant.




Quote from: YoungBuck on November 12, 2019, 02:43:40 PM
Tried my hand at some Bracket Analysis using Massey.  Some great potential matchups to look forward to along the way to Greensboro.  Enjoy:

...


PaulNewman

And a nice assist on bulletin board material from the Tufts dude (and fellow Tar Heel) for little ol' middle-of-nowhere Kenyon.  Not sure what I appreciate more...the prediction of a 1st round loss (join the crowd) or the suggestion that if the Lords miraculously made the Final Four they would be a heavy underdog in the semis and I presume also the final.

southsidejet

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 13, 2019, 10:06:28 AM
And a nice assist on bulletin board material from the Tufts dude (and fellow Tar Heel) for little ol' middle-of-nowhere Kenyon.  Not sure what I appreciate more...the prediction of a 1st round loss (join the crowd) or the suggestion that if the Lords miraculously made the Final Four they would be a heavy underdog in the semis and I presume also the final.
I enjoyed watching Kenyon play this year, love their style of play and attacking 'dangerousness'. Youth/inexperience will be their biggest hurdle in this tournament, but if they can pull it together anything is possible.

NokeAlum15

Weather is looking dicey in Newport News for Saturday.  Windy, rain and in the 40s.  No thanks.
1993 National Quarterfinalist
Six NCAA Appearances
Nine-Time ODAC Champions
Six-Time VISA Champions

Gregory Sager

Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 13, 2019, 12:40:48 PM
Weather is looking dicey in Newport News for Saturday.  Windy, rain and in the 40s.  No thanks.

I live in Chicago. Windy, rain, and in the 40s sounds like heaven right about now. :D
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

YoungBuck

Re: Zinn's Contender (NCAA Preview Edition) -

Great column as usual.  I love the idea of weighting the overall power rankings with the difficulty of the bracket each team faces.  Such is the reality of the tournament, and it's refreshing to see a tough draw being taken into account.  Here's how I would rank the teams in terms of likeliness to win it all:

1. Tufts - There would have been anarchy if Mr. Zinner had put the Jumbos at #1 (although I have not doubt he thinks they are the favorite), so he had to go out of the box with JCU.  I, on the other hand, have no such allegiances, and no better than to bet against Tufts in November and December.  This team is a postseason juggernaut with an XI that will beat you down on Saturdays, and a bench that will contribute in a meaningful way on Sundays.  First two rounds should pose no obstacle.  I think W&L is overrated and won't be too tough for Tufts.  It doesn't really get tough for them until the Elite 8, but at that point, everybody left will be solid.  A possible Elite 8 game against Hopkins would be the game of the tournament, and perhaps the best quality of D3 soccer that money could buy (with all due respect to Messiah and Calvin).  For my money, I'd say Tufts is the favorite. 

2. Calvin - Admittedly, I know very little about Calvin, other then that they seem to be in the Final Four every year, and that they smashed F&M 4-1 in the Elite 8 back in 2016.  I'd be shocked if they didn't make the second weekend, where games against North Park and Chicago would loom large.  Home field for that weekend might be enough to send them through to Greensboro, at which point, they'd have to show that this is the year for a breakthrough.  A Final 4 showdown against Tufts or Hopkins would be a great watch. 

3. Messiah - Let's remember that this team hasn't lost in 18 games.  The healthy version of this team is undefeated on the year, and no matter how shallow you think their talent is this year, they're still deeper than your team.  On a Saturday, a good team might be able to beat Messiah, but on a Sunday, they're depth will win out.  Fortunately, their toughest potential matchups (Oneonta, Amherst) would come on the second day of the weekend.  Only the fact that they will have to beat Amherst on Amherst's field keeps them from the top 2. 

4. Amherst - Home sweet home will give them a sizable advantage in the first two rounds.  There's no questioning their talent and success throughout this season; however, a one-dimensional attack is easier to stop then a well-balanced one (I mentioned this in a previous SOTD).  Look no further than last year's Messiah squad for a team reliant on a super striker to deliver the goods that went out earlier than they would have wanted in the tournament.   

5. Hopkins - The relative newcomer to the top bunch of teams, I have been impressed with this team's success in big games all season long.  While they're probably the most likely top seed to not make it out of the first weekend, if they can maintain focus and continue to show up for the big games, they'll be tough to beat.  Home field advantage for the sectional could be enough to flip the script on Tufts and exorcise those 2017 demons.  Don't count out an all-Centennial championship, but from a neutral perspective, I would rather see them against Messiah with the trophy on the line.

6. John Carroll - The Rust Belt Quadrant is clearly the weakest.  As the favorite to get out of there, they could have an easy route to the Elite 8.

7. Christopher Newport - Haven't heard much about this team, but they keep getting results.  If Hopkins slips, they have a pretty easy path to the Elite 8.

8. F&M
9. Chicago
10. Kenyon


Bracket Buster(s) - Roanoke and North Park (you're welcome Mr. Sager)

P.S. Swarthmore at #10 in Mr. Zinner's rankings is hilarious.  If I had a house I would bet it against them getting out of the first weekend, and maybe even the first game.  If you lose by 4 to a team that didn't even make the tournament, you don't deserve to be considered a contender. 

jknezek

Quote from: YoungBuck on November 13, 2019, 01:18:11 PM
Re: Zinn's Contender (NCAA Preview Edition) -

Great column as usual.  I love the idea of weighting the overall power rankings with the difficulty of the bracket each team faces.  Such is the reality of the tournament, and it's refreshing to see a tough draw being taken into account.  Here's how I would rank the teams in terms of likeliness to win it all:

1. Tufts - There would have been anarchy if Mr. Zinner had put the Jumbos at #1 (although I have not doubt he thinks they are the favorite), so he had to go out of the box with JCU.  I, on the other hand, have no such allegiances, and no better than to bet against Tufts in November and December.  This team is a postseason juggernaut with an XI that will beat you down on Saturdays, and a bench that will contribute in a meaningful way on Sundays.  First two rounds should pose no obstacle.  I think W&L is overrated and won't be too tough for Tufts.  It doesn't really get tough for them until the Elite 8, but at that point, everybody left will be solid.  A possible Elite 8 game against Hopkins would be the game of the tournament, and perhaps the best quality of D3 soccer that money could buy (with all due respect to Messiah and Calvin).  For my money, I'd say Tufts is the favorite. 

2. Calvin - Admittedly, I know very little about Calvin, other then that they seem to be in the Final Four every year, and that they smashed F&M 4-1 in the Elite 8 back in 2016.  I'd be shocked if they didn't make the second weekend, where games against North Park and Chicago would loom large.  Home field for that weekend might be enough to send them through to Greensboro, at which point, they'd have to show that this is the year for a breakthrough.  A Final 4 showdown against Tufts or Hopkins would be a great watch. 

3. Messiah - Let's remember that this team hasn't lost in 18 games.  The healthy version of this team is undefeated on the year, and no matter how shallow you think their talent is this year, they're still deeper than your team.  On a Saturday, a good team might be able to beat Messiah, but on a Sunday, they're depth will win out.  Fortunately, their toughest potential matchups (Oneonta, Amherst) would come on the second day of the weekend.  Only the fact that they will have to beat Amherst on Amherst's field keeps them from the top 2. 

4. Amherst - Home sweet home will give them a sizable advantage in the first two rounds.  There's no questioning their talent and success throughout this season; however, a one-dimensional attack is easier to stop then a well-balanced one (I mentioned this in a previous SOTD).  Look no further than last year's Messiah squad for a team reliant on a super striker to deliver the goods that went out earlier than they would have wanted in the tournament.   

5. Hopkins - The relative newcomer to the top bunch of teams, I have been impressed with this team's success in big games all season long.  While they're probably the most likely top seed to not make it out of the first weekend, if they can maintain focus and continue to show up for the big games, they'll be tough to beat.  Home field advantage for the sectional could be enough to flip the script on Tufts and exorcise those 2017 demons.  Don't count out an all-Centennial championship, but from a neutral perspective, I would rather see them against Messiah with the trophy on the line.

6. John Carroll - The Rust Belt Quadrant is clearly the weakest.  As the favorite to get out of there, they could have an easy route to the Elite 8.

7. Christopher Newport - Haven't heard much about this team, but they keep getting results.  If Hopkins slips, they have a pretty easy path to the Elite 8.

8. F&M
9. Chicago
10. Kenyon


Bracket Buster(s) - Roanoke and North Park (you're welcome Mr. Sager)

P.S. Swarthmore at #10 in Mr. Zinner's rankings is hilarious.  If I had a house I would bet it against them getting out of the first weekend, and maybe even the first game.  If you lose by 4 to a team that didn't even make the tournament, you don't deserve to be considered a contender.

Interesting you list Roanoke as a bracket buster when they were twice outplayed by W&L who is overrated. I don't dispute W&L, should they get there, will have a real tough draw against Tufts. But I don't see Roanoke being better. Box score on the W&L/Roanoke tie was 24(7) 11(3) shots in favor of W&L. Corners 10 to 7. Frankly, W&L was very unlucky not to win that game. As for the ODAC tournament semifinal, W&L won 2-1. 11(4) 6(4) shots in favor for W&L 3-3 corners in a much more even game on a neutral site field.

I don't see either going past the round of 16, but I'd put my money on W&L getting there over Roanoke. We will see, however.

RollToms

Not sure I fall in line with the seeming consensus that Chicago is a contender this year. I understand the legacy and recent success etc.. but looking at their record this year (11-1-5), they played out to 5 draws and a loss. That loss came to Calvin, and most of the draws (bar maybe Carthage) came against very respectable programs who are all discussed in the national perspective, so at first glance not a lot to worry about. But, this is the national tournament, so at this point you are playing programs of that high caliber almost strictly. Chicago is no exception w/ potential 2nd round matchup with winner of OWU and Hope and beyond. The seeming inability of Chicago to find that winning goal in overtime, at least in a decent # of games vs respected opponents, could come back to bite them in the tournament. As we all know, a shootout is not about who the better team is whatsoever. If Chicago gets into a penalty shootout, anything could happen. 

NokeAlum15

Annnnnnd the chippiness has begun.  I LOVE it!

The box score doesn't tell you everything.  W&L was very lucky to not come away with a L in our first match.  Noke hit the crossbar late in the 2nd half along with a few other chances.  I watched the match and the starting late in the 2nd half and both OTs were very much even with both teams pressing forward.  It was a fun one.

Didn't catch the ODAC semi match so cannot comment.

This is a fun time of year.
1993 National Quarterfinalist
Six NCAA Appearances
Nine-Time ODAC Champions
Six-Time VISA Champions

jknezek

Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 13, 2019, 02:03:25 PM
Annnnnnd the chippiness has begun.  I LOVE it!

The box score doesn't tell you everything.  W&L was very lucky to not come away with a L in our first match.  Noke hit the crossbar late in the 2nd half along with a few other chances.  I watched the match and the starting late in the 2nd half and both OTs were very much even with both teams pressing forward.  It was a fun one.

Didn't catch the ODAC semi match so cannot comment.

This is a fun time of year.

It was also the only good shot Roanoke had outside that beautiful corner/header. Nokes' keeper kept out 3 or 4 of W&L's chances that were really solid. He had a very good game. W&L outshot Roanoke 12-3 in the second half and I remember possession being pretty lopsided until very late when it evened out. I'll grant the overtimes were much more even but I remember the Noke keeper laying out pretty good for one of the overtime shots. But we all remember things differently.

NokeAlum15

Quote from: jknezek on November 13, 2019, 02:13:39 PM
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 13, 2019, 02:03:25 PM
Annnnnnd the chippiness has begun.  I LOVE it!

The box score doesn't tell you everything.  W&L was very lucky to not come away with a L in our first match.  Noke hit the crossbar late in the 2nd half along with a few other chances.  I watched the match and the starting late in the 2nd half and both OTs were very much even with both teams pressing forward.  It was a fun one.

Didn't catch the ODAC semi match so cannot comment.

This is a fun time of year.

It was also the only good shot Roanoke had outside that beautiful corner/header. Nokes' keeper kept out 3 or 4 of W&L's chances that were really solid. He had a very good game. W&L outshot Roanoke 12-3 in the second half and I remember possession being pretty lopsided until very late when it evened out. I'll grant the overtimes were much more even but I remember the Noke keeper laying out pretty good for one of the overtime shots. But we all remember things differently.

Good luck to you man.   Let's hope the ODAC makes a nice showing this year.
1993 National Quarterfinalist
Six NCAA Appearances
Nine-Time ODAC Champions
Six-Time VISA Champions

Gregory Sager

Quote from: YoungBuck on November 13, 2019, 01:18:11 PM
Bracket Buster(s) - Roanoke and North Park (you're welcome Mr. Sager)

I appreciate the thought, YB, but I'm content with the fact that nobody is taking NPU seriously. That worked out pretty well for the Vikings two years ago. ;)

Thus far, the only poster who has put in a good word for NPU's chances for a November run is a Wheaton fan, GoThunder1. Having posted some positive thoughts about Wheaton's freshman class this season, I realize that we're in the weird position of having to bolster our league's credibility in this particular online community by speaking up on behalf of our archrivals. ;)
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell