D3 Baseball just published their assessment of the Mid-East Region Teams. Agree or Disagree?? Any comments??
Personally I believe that there will be more teams in the mix for league championships, so who ends up going to Marietta for the Regional may not even be showing on the Poll List they have out. The "berg" and "etta" are probably the two it will come down to for the Region as Wooster may have a lot of rebuilding to do with so few position players coming back. Someone is pumping sunshine up OWU's skirt too as their season could be done after their southern spring trip, playing the "berg" once and "etta" twice....But they do host COW the first weekend of NCAC play, and that's after COW plays at Wabash the day before....League Championships are WIDE OPEN this season....
DC Man,
I posted previously that Woo winning the NCAC is not a foregone conclusion in 2011. They return 3 quality starters and a couple of good relievers. The Scots should do fairly well on their Spring trip but might end up dropping a few more than usual because of the league scheduling you alluded to. They'll have to save starters for the 4 league games to be played on their way home from Florida. The change to the dead bats certainly won't hurt Woo as they were going to have to play more small ball anyway given their graduation losses. OWU might return as good a nucleus in the filed and on the dish as any team in the conference your attempts to sandbag notwithstanding. My son played with several OWU players this summer. Did your son play on that team as well???
Macdade, my son graduated a long time ago and not from Ohio Wesleyan. OWU is just the local university I follow and baseball is a sport I love watching, reading about, and talking about. I agree with you about the NCAC schedule format for this season and I've not seen the new bats in action that you referred to, so I can't say that they will make any difference. I do find that it is interesting that COW is able to play a meaningful NCAC DH in Florida, while everyone else in the league, with the exception of their opponent Alleghaney, has to play all their league contests in the great weather of the mid-West.... Somehow that just doesn't seem right....your thoughts?
DC Man,
I'm not sure whether it's right or nor but Woo has been playing a NCAC doubleheader on their Spring trip for the last several years. We used to play Allegheny in FLA but for the past two years Kenyon has been our opponent. This means we don't have to squeeze as many games in when we come home. Also, for whatever reason, we seem to be ahead of these other teams early on in the season.
Congrats to THE BERG's Gar Keen on being selected #8 in the Preseason selection of the top 25 Players in D3 Ohio schools.
http://buckeyestatebaseball.com/2011/02/....een-heidelberg/
GO BERG!!!!
Some big in-region games coming up for the Mideast, as many of the top teams are down in FL for their spring trips. Marietta & Adrian already split a doubleheader.
Marietta vs Ohio Wesleyan today.
Heidelberg, OWU, and others will also be pairing up to get some big games in before heading back to the cold weather :)
Wooster doesn't get down to FL in time to get a piece of the top Mideast teams, but Petorini does a great job of taking care of that in his scheduling once the Scots are back in Ohio.
Should be a great season for in-region matchups between the top teams....could make for some great coaching when the Regionals come around (as teams will know quite a bit about each other already)!!
How has the new bat rules impacted the games so far? I have not looked at any box scores as I follow Wooster and they've yet to play, as you mentioned.
Looks like the MidEast Region will be tough again. Being an MIAA fan, I was very surprised to see Adrian split with Marietta. Does D3Baseball.com really think Adrian's off to a disappointing start? Looks to me they had a good spring trip against some quality teams. Also see Marietta's staff looks tough, Heidelberg is pounding the ball. Can't wait til the season gets in full swing!
THE BERG offense exploded again Mon. at Terry Park in Ft. Myers, FL with a 16 run, 13 hit win over Olivet (1 Run - 6 Hits)
Highlights: Gar Keen - 3 for 3, 5 RBIs, 3 Runs scored.
* Don't tell Willie B-recun that the new bats will curtail the long ball. He had his 2nd HR in 2 days. (2-5, 4 RBIs, 1 run)
* Elvin Williams showed his versatility with a 3-4, 1 RBI, 3 runs scored at the plate and than switched to the arm on the mound in the 8th with a no hit, no run, 2 SO effort.
* Rick Lizcano 2-3, 2 RBI, 4 runs scored
GO BERG!!!
They have 30 wins, a regional winning percentage of .700, and a SOS ranking of 76 (which is 3rd most difficult in the region to Marietta and Heidelberg).
Have they done enough?
Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 25, 2011, 09:09:10 AM
They have 30 wins, a regional winning percentage of .700, and a SOS ranking of 76 (which is 3rd most difficult in the region to Marietta and Heidelberg).
Have they done enough?
Maybe? Probably depends on what Chapman does in its last two weekend series.
They are not in the top 25 but they received some votes.
http://www.d3baseball.com/top25/2011/week9
Of course losing to John Carrol yesterday didn't help their cause one bit. I may be a stretch to see them in the tournament.
#3 in the regional rankings. Seems like they may have a good chance.
I think in end Adrian will be above them though. Maybe Transy or Manchester as well.
The whole regional ranking sheet looks like a rough draft.
I agree about the rough draft part. I think Adrian will end up as either the two or the three. Heidelberg/Marietta are near locks for the regional tournament, You have the Presidents conf, Heartlan Conf, and North Coast Tournament winners to deal with and the regional starts filling up quickly.
1. OAC champ (berg or MC)
2. Adrian (MIAA champ)
3. Loser of Berg/MC
4. NCAC champ
5. HCAC Champ
6. PAC Champ
7. Case (?)
8. ??? (if it is a seven or eight team tourney)
It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next two weeks. Big weekend this weekend plus the conference tournaments. Other than the OAC, I would be suprised to see any of the others get two teams in. THe heartland conference maybe.
We have a good discussion on the West Region board about kids who turn down a partial baseball scholarship down south to stay at home and play in the D-III leagues, up north, in states like Ohio, NJ, Minnesota, NJ, etc.
What are the impressions of the fans in this region about the players who have stayed home to play D-III rather than pay out-of-state tuition and go with a partial scholarship in D-II and D-1?
The posts begin about #211.
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7677.211
Please comment on this thread or the West Region thread. Thanks.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 06, 2012, 01:22:25 PM
We have a good discussion on the West Region board about kids who turn down a partial baseball scholarship down south to stay at home and play in the D-III leagues, up north, in states like Ohio, NJ, Minnesota, NJ, etc.
What are the impressions of the fans in this region about the players who have stayed home to play D-III rather than pay out-of-state tuition and go with a partial scholarship in D-II and D-1?
The posts begin about #211.
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7677.211
Please comment on this thread or the West Region thread. Thanks.
I will have to check out the thread Ralph, but I am not aware of that happening around here. As for my son the choice was between walking on at Mid American Conference schools with no scholarship money or being wanted at a D-3 school. He ended up getting hurt in December just before practice started his freshman year so any D-1 school would have probably just written him off. Therefore I am pleased with how things turned out. He is in the starting rotation as a sophomore of a very good D-3 program so if he does the job he has a chance of getting noticed. I was rather surprised he got no contact from D-1 schools considering he was All State his senior year, but given his personality, I think everything worked out for the best.
Recet RPI rankings of the top 11 Mid east region teams....
Top 11 RPI of the Mideast region teams:
Win% OWP OOWP SOS RPI Rank School Reg W L Conf.
0.824 0.551 0.539 0.547 0.616 1 Marietta ME 14 3 OAC
0.750 0.581 0.467 0.543 0.595 2 Anderson ME 12 4 HCAC
0.815 0.505 0.528 0.513 0.588 3 DePauw ME 22 5 NCAC
0.737 0.501 0.547 0.517 0.572 4 Adrian ME 14 5 MIAA
0.682 0.545 0.485 0.525 0.564 5 Mount Union ME 15 7 OAC
0.800 0.459 0.525 0.481 0.560 6 Washington and Jefferson ME 12 3 PrAC
0.727 0.491 0.510 0.497 0.555 7 Kenyon ME 8 3 NCAC
0.615 0.542 0.506 0.530 0.551 8 Baldwin-Wallace ME 8 5 OAC
0.714 0.472 0.529 0.491 0.547 9 Rose-Hulman ME 10 4 HCAC
0.652 0.503 0.517 0.508 0.544 10 Westminster (Pa.) ME 15 8 PrAC
0.650 0.502 0.507 0.504 0.540 11 Case Western Reserve ME 19 10 (Indepenendent, Pool B Eligible)
Without accounting for teams being shipped into or out of the Mideast regional....
Pool A (Automatic Qualifiers - my prediction fo conference champions in parentheses)
OAC (Marietta)
NCAC (DePauw)
PrAC (Washington and Jefferson)
MIAA (Adiran)
HCAC (Anderson)
Pool C (at Large) Candidates (based on the RPI info above)
OAC - Mount Union, Baldwin Wallace (never count out Heidelberg!)
NCAC - Kenyon
PrAC - Westmintser
HCAC - Rose Hulman
Independent - Case Western Reserve
Pool B- (Independent Teams 3 total nationwide---I think)
Case Western Reserve.
The last two years, this regional has been 7 teams. It coule be 6 or 8 this year.
I would expect 8.
I think on another thread it says there are only two Pool Bs. Right now they look likely to be Washington STL and Ithaca.
I would add Franklin is a Pool C possibility. Beat RHIT away, play them again at home soon, then a lot of chances for wins before closing with home games vs. Spalding and Anderson 3x. Certainly an opportunity for them remains.
For comparison's sake here are the top teams in ISR.
1. Marietta
2. DePauw
3. W&J
4. Anderson
5. Franklin
6. Adrian
7. Baldwin-Wallace
These are in the top 60 nationally in ISR. 4-7 are all between 51-57.
8. Ohio Wesleyan
9. Mount Union
10. Case Western Reserve
11. Kenyon
12. Rose-Hulman
Those are 70-80 nationally in the ISRs.
Factor in teams which could get "shipped out" or others which could be "shipped in"
Any team in Indiana would be a candidate to go to Memphis for a regional. W&J could go to New Jersey. BW could end up in NY.
8 would make for a great week (and mini-vacation for me). 6 would be an easier path to Appleton. I'm good either way :)
the way the 8 team tournament is drawn up in the handbook, it would be much easier for the #1 seed to advance to appleton, than going trough a 6 team bracket....as long as they stay undefeated. the 3-0 team has a huge advantage.
a 6 team tournament brings the chance of playing a tougher team earlier in the bracket (when they still have pitching left).
Quick Rundown of the Conferences in the Mideast Region....
OAC:
1. Marietta
2T. Baldwin Wallace, Mount Union, Muskingum, 2 games back.
HCAC.
1. Anderson
2. Rose Hulman (1 game back)
3T. Franklin and Manchester (3 games back)
PrAC.
1T. W&J, Westminster
3T. St. Vincent & Thomas More (5 games back)
NCAC:
East
1. Allegheny
2. Kenyon
West.
1. DePauw
2. OWU, Wabash, Dennison.
MIAA
1. Adrian
2. Albion (5 games back)
3T. Hope, Olivet, Trine (6 games back)
Reading on the MIAA website, this year's NCAA Pool A team is the touney champ. In prior years it has been the regular season champ.
There is a good race in the President's conference and the Heartland Conference. The OAC is much improved this year than it was a year ago. Adrian sill dominates the MIAA. DePauw is making waves in the North Coast Conference this year. This is when it gets interesting!
Yes it is interesting. I believe DePauw will get the NCAC pool A bid, If they slip in the tourney they should still have a good shot at Pool c. Wooster still has a chance but not much of one, it will be strange not to see them in the NCAC tourney. The second place out of the NCAC west is interesting could be any of 3 teams.
With OWU currently tied, where do they stand in the "tie beaker" scenarios with Wabash and Dennison?
Head to head is the first tie breaker, I do not know what the second is. Right now Wabash holds the tiebreaker since they swept OWU earlier in the season. Not sure with Denison because currently they have split 1-1. They play a double header tonight so after that is over we will know more. A lot is riding on tonight's games. Denison still has to play Wabash, who is tough, and OWU plays Witt, who has struggled at times in the NCAC.
Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 16, 2012, 11:46:18 AM
Quick Rundown of the Conferences in the Mideast Region....
MIAA
1. Adrian
2. Albion (5 games back)
3T. Hope, Olivet, Trine (6 games back)
Reading on the MIAA website, this year's NCAA Pool A team is the touney champ. In prior years it has been the regular season champ.
Yes, the MIAA is having a four-team tournament for the first time this spring. The schedule for the tournament is #1 seed hosting #4 seed and #2 seed hosting #3 seed on the first day of the tournament. Second day of the tournament will have the #1 host, with the winners from previous day playing each other, followed by losers from previous day playing each other and the day ends with the one-loss losers playing each other. The third day is the championship and the "if" game. Manual says the tournament is Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Updated Boyd's ISR. Updated Tues 4/17
ISR Rank Rating D3 W D3 L W L SoS Team Conference Pool
1 1 131.3 22 4 22 4 7 Marietta OAC A
2 2 127.3 27 5 27 5 49 DePauw NCAC A
3 21 119.6 19 4 19 4 178 Washington and Jefferson PrAC A
4 38 117.4 19 7 20 9 99 Anderson HCAC A
5 40 117.1 20 5 23 6 202 Baldwin Wallace OAC C
6 48 115.2 21 5 21 6 247 Adrian MIAA A
7 56 114.1 20 8 20 8 156 Mount Union OAC C
8 58 113.9 21 7 21 7 205 Franklin HCAC C
9 70 111.6 21 5 21 8 295 Kenyon NCAC C
10 72 111.4 19 8 19 8 189 Rose-Hulman HCAC C
11 76 110.9 16 12 17 12 80 Manchester HCAC C
12 77 110.8 16 13 16 13 33 Ohio Wesleyan NCAC C
13 79 110.7 21 12 21 12 133 Case Western Reserve UAA C
14 85 110.3 14 10 14 10 96 Wooster NCAC C
15 87 109.7 19 8 19 8 229 Westminster PrAC C
Also, RPI (Courtesy of Johnny U) for some of the mideast teams....
Win Pct SOS RPI Team Conference Pool
1 0.875 0.544 0.62675 Marietta OAC A
2 0.762 0.54 0.5955 Anderson HCAC A
3 0.8 0.511 0.58325 Washington and Jefferson PrAc A
4 0.828 0.496 0.579 DePauw NCAC A
5 0.75 0.51 0.57 Mount Union OAC C
6 0.783 0.49 0.56325 Adrian MIAA A
7 0.7 0.505 0.55375 Baldwin Wallace OAC C
8 0.706 0.494 0.547 Rose Hulman HCAC C
9 0.524 0.533 0.53075 Muskingum OAC C
10 0.583 0.513 0.5305 Thomas More PrAC C
For the sake of discussion, the highest ranked team was awarded the Pool A bid, the others pool C. Case is probalby not going to get a Pool B bid, and thus were assigned Pool C.
Based on these numbers:
OAC - 2 bids (Marieta + Either Mount Union or BW)
NCAC - 1 Bid (DePauw)
HCAC - 2 Bids (Anderson + Either RHIT or Franklin)
PrAC - 1 Bid (W&J)
MIAA - 1 Bid (Adrian)
And we see one team "shipped in" from the Mid Atlantic or South. It is also possible that one mid east team is shipped out to another region (W&J to Mid Atlantic, BW to New York, or an HCAC team to the Central as an example)
Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 18, 2012, 09:22:16 AM
Updated Boyd's ISR. Updated Tues 4/17
ISR Rank Rating D3 W D3 L W L SoS Team Conference Pool
1 1 131.3 22 4 22 4 7 Marietta OAC A
2 2 127.3 27 5 27 5 49 DePauw NCAC A
3 21 119.6 19 4 19 4 178 Washington and Jefferson PrAC A
4 38 117.4 19 7 20 9 99 Anderson HCAC A
5 40 117.1 20 5 23 6 202 Baldwin Wallace OAC C
6 48 115.2 21 5 21 6 247 Adrian MIAA A
7 56 114.1 20 8 20 8 156 Mount Union OAC C
8 58 113.9 21 7 21 7 205 Franklin HCAC C
9 70 111.6 21 5 21 8 295 Kenyon NCAC C
10 72 111.4 19 8 19 8 189 Rose-Hulman HCAC C
11 76 110.9 16 12 17 12 80 Manchester HCAC C
12 77 110.8 16 13 16 13 33 Ohio Wesleyan NCAC C
13 79 110.7 21 12 21 12 133 Case Western Reserve UAA C
14 85 110.3 14 10 14 10 96 Wooster NCAC C
15 87 109.7 19 8 19 8 229 Westminster PrAC C
Also, RPI (Courtesy of Johnny U) for some of the mideast teams....
Win Pct SOS RPI Team Conference Pool
1 0.875 0.544 0.62675 Marietta OAC A
2 0.762 0.54 0.5955 Anderson HCAC A
3 0.8 0.511 0.58325 Washington and Jefferson PrAc A
4 0.828 0.496 0.579 DePauw NCAC A
5 0.75 0.51 0.57 Mount Union OAC C
6 0.783 0.49 0.56325 Adrian MIAA A
7 0.7 0.505 0.55375 Baldwin Wallace OAC C
8 0.706 0.494 0.547 Rose Hulman HCAC C
9 0.524 0.533 0.53075 Muskingum OAC C
10 0.583 0.513 0.5305 Thomas More PrAC C
For the sake of discussion, the highest ranked team was awarded the Pool A bid, the others pool C. Case is probalby not going to get a Pool B bid, and thus were assigned Pool C.
Based on these numbers:
OAC - 2 bids (Marieta + Either Mount Union or BW)
NCAC - 1 Bid (DePauw)
HCAC - 2 Bids (Anderson + Either RHIT or Franklin)
PrAC - 1 Bid (W&J)
MIAA - 1 Bid (Adrian)
And we see one team "shipped in" from the Mid Atlantic or South. It is also possible that one mid east team is shipped out to another region (W&J to Mid Atlantic, BW to New York, or an HCAC team to the Central as an example)
With the central regional in Millington this year. I believe Depauw would be a candidate to be shipped out as well. They shipped Wabash to the South last year which was also in Millington.
If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.
Quote from: motorman on April 18, 2012, 11:41:37 AM
If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.
I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.
Strangely Last year...
Wabash and Wooster from the NCAC were sent to different regionals. Wabash to Memphis and Wooster to Marietta. Momentary episode of stupidity.
Salisbury and Frostburg State from the CAC were sent to different regionals (though they are BOTH technically in different regions - so it is probably not a great example). Frostburg came to Marietta and Salisbury came from somewhere else (MC played them BOTH).
I would like to see a situation where if two teams like Marietta and 'Berg were ranked as highly as they were a year ago go to two seperate regionals. That's not going to be the case this year, as Mount Union and BW-while having good seasons to date-are not top ten teams.
However, I think it will boil down to how many teams are in the mideast regional (6 vs. 8) and how many teams do other close proximity regionals have? Will the central be 6 teams? The south is almost assuredly 6 (no lights at the host stadium). New York and Mid Atlantic?
DePauw could get sent to Millington (433 Miles) or Whitewater, WI (280 miles)
Mount Union could get sent to Newport News, Farmingdale, NY or Lakewood NJ and be within the 500 mile limit.
Anderson or Franklin could go to either Millington or Whitewater.
BW could go to Whitewater, the others are on the outside edge of Too far
Adrian could go to White water as well.
Marietta won't get shipped out because they are the host school.
Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 18, 2012, 01:44:13 PM
Strangely Last year...
Wabash and Wooster from the NCAC were sent to different regionals. Wabash to Memphis and Wooster to Marietta.
Salisbury and Frostburg State from the CAC were sent to different regionals (though they are BOTH technically in different regions - so it is probably not a great example). Frostburg came to Marietta and Salisbury came from somewhere else (MC played them BOTH).
I would like to see a situation where if two teams like Marietta and 'Berg were ranked as highly as they were a year ago go to two seperate regionals. That's not going to be the case this year, as Mount Union and BW-while having good seasons to date-are not top ten teams.
However, I think it will boil down to how many teams are in the mideast regional (6 vs. 8) and how many teams do other close proximity regionals have? Will the central be 6 teams? The south is almost assuredly 6 (no lights at the host stadium). New York and Mid Atlantic?
DePauw could get sent to Millington (433 Miles) or Whitewater, WI (280 miles)
Mount Union could get sent to Newport News, Farmingdale, NY or Lakewood NJ and be within the 500 mile limit.
Anderson or Franklin could go to either Millington or Whitewater.
BW could go to Whitewater, the others are on the outside edge of Too far
Adrian could go to White water as well.
Marietta won't get shipped out because they are the host school.
Wooster did not make the regionals last year. In the short time I have been following the NCAC and D3 baseball I cannot remember the NCAC getting a Pool C bid. Historically there are too many weak teams in the conference. Trading Earlham for DePauw should go a good way in changing that.
Right. 2010 and 2011 ran together on me. Remember Marietta and Wooster playing the first losers bracket game on Day two in 2010....A big suprise to all who were following the tournament.
Last year was
Marietta
'Berg
Adrian
Franklin
Frostburg State
Altoona
Case Western Reserve.
Duh.
Do any mideast or NCAC historians remember the last time the NCAC got a Pool C bid?
2007 owu and Wooster. Wooster was the pool c
Quote from: Bishopleftiesdad on April 18, 2012, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: motorman on April 18, 2012, 11:41:37 AM
If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.
I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.
I asked the national selection chair about that. His answer will run in Around the Nation next week.
Quote from: Ricky Nelson on April 18, 2012, 07:34:58 PM
Quote from: Bishopleftiesdad on April 18, 2012, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: motorman on April 18, 2012, 11:41:37 AM
If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.
I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.
I asked the national selection chair about that. His answer will run in Around the Nation next week.
I am looking forward to that article. I always enjoy the Around the Nation articles.
Quote from: Bishopleftiesdad on April 19, 2012, 09:23:22 AM
Quote from: Ricky Nelson on April 18, 2012, 07:34:58 PM
Quote from: Bishopleftiesdad on April 18, 2012, 12:27:09 PM
Quote from: motorman on April 18, 2012, 11:41:37 AM
If the OAC or HCAC get 2 teams into the regional it will be a crime if they get sent to different regionals when they did not do that with Marietta and Heidelberg or Christopher Newport and Shenandoah from the south last year. All 4 teams were in the top 10 yet got stuck in the same regionals. I don't think an unrated school should be rewarded with avoiding their conference winner.
I agree but the NCAA doesn't always care about parity of the regions or fairness. They care about how much it costs and what they can do to avoid paying airfare. They were better about it last year, we will see if they revert to form.
I asked the national selection chair about that. His answer will run in Around the Nation next week.
I am looking forward to that article. I always enjoy the Around the Nation articles.
Thank you. Now that I think of it, we actually talked about everything you mention. Based on your quoted views of the process (those views are seemingly frequent and widely held, by the way), his response to those complaints – if not complaints, then at least presuppositions – may surprise you.
Great, I hope to be enlightened in a good way. My anticipation for this article just bumped up a few notches.
From the "Pool C" Prediction thread in National Topics, with TONS of credit to poster JohnnyU for providing the data and comments from others for corrections to the data.....
Assuming the Top rated RPI teams WIN the Pool A bid and the top two RPI's amongst pool B teams are the Pool B teams, here is a list of the top 25 remaining RPI's for the Pool C candidates;
Team Region Conf RPI
1 Trinity NE NESCAC .620
2 Johns Hopkins MA CC .619
3 Ramapo MA NJAC .618
4 Bowdoin NE NESCAC .615
5 E. Conn St. NE LEC .610
6 Concordia (Ill) MW NATH .605
7 UW- La Crosse MW WIAC .595
8 Trinity (TX) W SCAC .593
9 Kean MA NJAC .592
10 Shenandoah S USAC .588
11 Neuman MA CSAC .587
12 Whitworth W NWC .582
13 DeSales MA MACF .578
14 St. John's MW MIAC .575
15 UW- Whitewater MW WIAC .574
16 Mount Union ME OAC .570
17 Chicago c IND .569
18 Pac Lutheran W NWC .564
19 IWU C CCIW .559
20 Catholic S Land .559
21 Rowan MA NJAC .557
22 St. John Fisher NY E8 .556
23 Coe C IIAC .554
24 Baldwin Wallace ME OAC .554
25 Mass-Boston NE LEC .552
26 North Central (Ill) C CCIW .552
27 Southern Maine NE LEC .550
28 Rose Hulman ME HCAC .547
29 Rhodes S SCAC .547
30 Texas-Dallas W ASC .546
Mount Union is squarely on the bubble right now. BW and RHIT have some work to do to improve the resume. None can afford another loss in the regular season without hurting their chances at an at large bid.
I would guess a team or two from the Mid Atlantic region would be headed this direction, particularly if it is an 8 team tournament. It would not be out of the question to see someone head in from the Central or Midwest if it is an 8 team tournament as well.
Candidates to come in would be within 500 miles according to past practices and could include: Shenendoah, Johns Hopkins, Nueman (PA), Rowan (499 miles), DeSales (PA), Concordia, ILL.
first regional rankings are out.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3/regional_
Mideast
Marietta (OAC)
Wash and Jeff (PAC)
Depauw (NCAC)
Adrian (MIAA)
Mount Union (PAC)
Anderson (HCAC)
Rose-Hulman (HCAC)
That looks pretty good to me.
I would say that the four teams who are locks to make the regional are Marietta, DePauw, Adrian and w&j. They are probably the four who can blowing in the conference tournament and still get a bid.
Looking nationwide at those 16 pool c bids, Mount Union has a very good chance to make it in but they HAVE TO finish the regular season strongly and likely finish no worse than second in the oac tourney. They have to avoid bad losses against Wilmington and muskingum. A split with Washington and Jefferson would be very beneficial as well. From a pool c perspective that is almost as big as the two oac series.
The two two heartland teams are interesting. I Don't know if there is enough room for two hcac teams in the field.
Still look for this to be an 8 team field. The winner of the amcc (Altoona, Berhend, etc.) will be shipped in. Perhaps a shenendoah or a frostburg state, Montclair state, Rowan or even piedmont.
Here are the top 25 Estimated Pool C candidates (for which there are 16 spots). This assumes the top teams in the conference are the Pool A representatives. The Pool B representatives are Ithaca and Washington U.
Rank Team Region win% SOS RPI Region Conf Pool
1 Montclair State .808 .583 .639 MA NJAC C
2 Rowan .697 .571 .603 MA NJAC C
3 Eastern Connecticut .679 .575 .601 NE LEC C
4 St. John Fisher .750 .545 .596 NY E8 C
5 Ramapo .692 .564 .596 MA NJAC C
6 Chicago .633 .582 .595 C UAA C
7 Southern Maine .618 .587 .595 NE LEC C
8 Alvernia .731 .549 .595 MA MACC C
9 Amherst .769 .536 .594 NE NESCAC C
10 Neumann .667 .570 .594 MA CSAC C
11 Shenandoah .743 .542 .592 S USAC C
12 Bowdoin .600 .580 .585 NE NESCAC C
13 Concordia (Ill.) .737 .531 .583 MW NATHC C
14 Emory .703 .538 .579 S UAA C
15 UW-Whitewater .629 .559 .577 MW WIAC C
16 William Paterson .667 .546 .576 MA NJAC C
17 Johns Hopkins .625 .557 .574 MA CC C
18 Huntingdon .667 .542 .573 S GSAC C
19 Millsaps .639 .550 .572 S SCAC C
20 Bates .593 .565 .572 NE NESCAC C
21 St. John's .742 .515 .572 MW MIAC C
22 Washington College .684 .533 .571 MA CC C
23 Trinity (Texas) .795 .496 .571 W SCAC C
24 North Park .727 .518 .570 C CCIW C
25 DePauw .732 .515 .569 ME NCAC C
If I had to guess, DePauw will not make it after losing to Wooster in the NCAC tourney.
Mount Union will not make it in without winning the OAC tournament. They would be 28th on this list.
Case Western is #42 on this list....They are likley out.
Heidelberg is the next highest team from the region at #51, they will not make it in without winning the OAC tournament.
In fact, If I had to guess, I would say the next regional rankings this Thursday will look like this:
1. Marietta (OAC)
2. W&J (PrAC
3. Adrian (MIAA)
4. Franklin/Rose Hulman (HCAC)
5. Rose Hulman/Franklin (HCAC)
6. DePauw (NCAC)
7. Wooster (NCAC Champs, Pool A)
Mount Union will likely drop out having lost three of their last four games.
Marietta, W&J and Adrian are probably locks for the regional regardless of what happens in the conference tournaments.
EttaFan,
I have to disagree with you on the regional rankings. Wooster and Heidelberg have identical records with virtually identical SOS numbers, but the closest thing Wooster has to a quality non conference win was over a depleted Marietta team due to suspensions in Florida. When they played them up here, it was no contest. I don't think just winning the NCAC tournament should get them in the regional rankings. Heidelberg has victories over top 25 ranked Adrian and Montclair State in addition to handily beating Wooster head to head.
motorman, I know where you are coming from, and I'm likely wrong. The only reason I see wooster in the rankings is because they have already qualified for the regional with their victory. Their wins against DePauw and Marietta will help them. Montclair State is out of region, and won't help either 'Berg or Marietta (who won three games of 4 from Montclair State). The win over Adrian is a quality win for 'Berg. Here are their resume's
Berg,
W-L: 25-15
Region Win %: .618
SOS: .530
RPI: .552
WIns vs. Ranked teams in Region: 2-3 (Wins: Mount Union, Adrian, Losses: Marietta-2, Mount Union)
Wooster:
W-L: 27-16
Region win Pct: .618
SOS: .531
RPI: .553
Wins vs. Ranked teams in Region: 3-2 (Wins: Marietta, DePauw-2, Losses: Marietta, DePauw)
RPI top to bottom for the Mideast Region.
Marietta .861 .546 .625 ME OAC A
Washington and Jefferson .829 .525 .601 ME PRAC A
Adrian .806 .495 .573 ME MIAA A
DePauw .732 .515 .569 ME NCAC C
Mount Union .676 .530 .567 ME OAC C
Case Western Reserve .625 .535 .558 ME UAA C
Franklin .759 .488 .556 ME HCAC A
Rose-Hulman .690 .508 .554 ME HCAC C
Wooster .618 .531 .553 ME NCAC A
Heidelberg .618 .530 .552 ME OAC C
The difference in RPI from CWRU (#6) to 'Berg is .006.
Quote from: EttaFan1 on April 20, 2012, 11:01:22 AM
From the "Pool C" Prediction thread in National Topics, with TONS of credit to poster JohnnyU for providing the data and comments from others for corrections to the data.....
Assuming the Top rated RPI teams WIN the Pool A bid and the top two RPI's amongst pool B teams are the Pool B teams, here is a list of the top 25 remaining RPI's for the Pool C candidates;
Team Region Conf RPI
1 Trinity NE NESCAC .620
2 Johns Hopkins MA CC .619
3 Ramapo MA NJAC .618
4 Bowdoin NE NESCAC .615
5 E. Conn St. NE LEC .610
6 Concordia (Ill) MW NATH .605
7 UW- La Crosse MW WIAC .595
8 Trinity (TX) W SCAC .593
9 Kean MA NJAC .592
10 Shenandoah S USAC .588
11 Neuman MA CSAC .587
12 Whitworth W NWC .582
13 DeSales MA MACF .578
14 St. John's MW MIAC .575
15 UW- Whitewater MW WIAC .574
16 Mount Union ME OAC .570
17 Chicago c IND .569
18 Pac Lutheran W NWC .564
19 IWU C CCIW .559
20 Catholic S Land .559
21 Rowan MA NJAC .557
22 St. John Fisher NY E8 .556
23 Coe C IIAC .554
24 Baldwin Wallace ME OAC .554
25 Mass-Boston NE LEC .552
26 North Central (Ill) C CCIW .552
27 Southern Maine NE LEC .550
28 Rose Hulman ME HCAC .547
29 Rhodes S SCAC .547
30 Texas-Dallas W ASC .546
Mount Union is squarely on the bubble right now. BW and RHIT have some work to do to improve the resume. None can afford another loss in the regular season without hurting their chances at an at large bid.
I would guess a team or two from the Mid Atlantic region would be headed this direction, particularly if it is an 8 team tournament. It would not be out of the question to see someone head in from the Central or Midwest if it is an 8 team tournament as well.
Candidates to come in would be within 500 miles according to past practices and could include: Shenendoah, Johns Hopkins, Neumann (PA), Rowan (499 miles), DeSales (PA), Concordia, ILL.
I want to caution readers that the other primary criteria not seen in this table are wins against regionally ranked opponents, wins against common in-region opponents and head-to-head. There is no priority given to any of the 6 primary criteria.
Thanks for the regional RPI data EttaFan. I was curious how the region stacked up. Berg also has won 2 of 3 from Case, although I know they aren't ranked. The case I was trying to make was how similar they were in most of the criteria, I thought it should come down to the head to head game to determine who is higher in the regional rankings.
To me, the bottom line for Wooster is they will be in the regional as a pool A (and likely by default ranked somewhere for seeding purposes) where everyone else is vying for a spot. Had DePauw won the NCAC, Wooster wouldn't even be in the discussion as a Pool C bid would be next to impossible with their resume.
Right now, Wooster (NCAC) and Adrian (MIAA) have qualifid for the NCAA tournament.
DePauw (NCAC) sits and waits to see what their fate will be with the Pool C selection process.
Marietta is "looking good" having advanced to the championship game in tomorrows OAC Touranment.
Mount Union (#5 in Region) was eliminated.
Manchester sits in the "cat bird's seat" having won the first two games of the HCAC. They are the #4 seed in that conference.
Both Rose Hulman (#6 in region) and Franklin (#7 in the region) were eliminated. Anderson, previously ranked in the region, must win two today.
Top Seed Washington and Jefferson (#2 in the region) was upset in the opening round of the PrAC tournament. Second seed, Westminster, is in the championship game having won the winners bracket. W&J must win twice to secure the pool a bid.
Thanks for the update.
All tournaments are in the books.
Ncac: Wooster. Pool c candidates: DePauw
Oac: Marietta. Pool c candidates: Mount Union
PrAC: Westminster. Pool C candidates: Washington and Jefferson.
MIAA: Adrian. Pool C candidates: none.
Heartland: Manchester Pool c candidates: Franklin and Rose Hulman are in the latest regional rankings.
Of these teams I think the only pool c bid will go to W&J, I predict they will end up as the 3 seed in the region
Here is my prediction for the Marietta regional
1. Marietta
2. Adrian W&J
3. W&J Adrian
4. Alvernia (Mid-Atlanic)/Shenendoah (south) St. John Fisher (New York)
5. Wooster Westminster
6. Manchester Wooster
7. La Roche Manchester
8. Westminster La Roche
Game 1, 9:30 AM: St. John Fisher vs. Westminster. Don't know much abut St. John Fisher aside from a quick glance at their website. They have a strong pitching staff (3.36 ERA, .340 team batting average). It looks like they have two good starters (D'Amato 10-0, 1.83 ERA; Johnson 5-2, 2.67 ERA) and plenty of guys who can swing it (26 Home Runs as a team). Westminster is also a team who is not well known. They have a team ERA of 3.04 and is hitting .307 as a team. They are led on the hill by Prejsnar (7-1, 1.48 ERA) and Mulligan (6-2, 3.08 ERA).
Game 2, 1:00 PM: Marietta vs. La Roche--Split the meeting a little over a week ago. Marietta won game one 1-0 in extra innings, and La Roche won game 2 7-3.
Game 3, 4:30 PM: Adrian vs. Wooster — Wooster got a little hot down the stretch, starting with the win of a coin flip. Then they went on to upset DePauw in the first game of the NCAC and made it count, winning the pool A bid. However, Wooster hasn't played an actual game in a while. Adrian stomped its way through the MIAA, plus they have one of the regions top pitching staffs.
Game 4, 8:30 PM: W&J vs. Manchester—In one of the big stunners over the weekend, W&J lost in their first game in the PrAC tourney and were unabe to battle through the losers bracket. Machester on the other hand, got hot. They entered the HCAC tournament as the #4 seed and won it. Could be a dangerous game for the Presidents.