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Messages - Ralph Turner

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2
Monday morning and I'm still catching up. Big congrats to the road warriors at Bethel, shutting out Linfield in the second half. Going to be an interesting next weekend because I think the Royals could surprise the Cru in Belton.
Respectfully, I don't think so.  This will be the 5th top-level QB that UMHB has seen this year. (UWW, HSU, HPU, Trinity).

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Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 28, 2022, 01:14:53 am »
Actually, Logan said on our podcast last offseason that Mount Union has one of the lowest home field advantages, because they just beat people the same, home or away.

Here's what switching home field did to Del Val's chances:
https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1596937557912133632
Precisely. There are so few games in the sample in which UMU is facing a roughly comparable opponent to measure. The UMU games are usually Monkey-Stomp by halftime, home or away.

I looked at the last 6 full regular seasons (2022, 2021, 2016 thru 2019) for UMU. They played 54 conference games. The margin in 46 of those games was more than 21 points. The only defeat was the JCU loss in 2016, 31-28 in Alliance. Five of the 8 "close games" were with JCU.

That is not a very large sample size.

With respect to flipping host responsibilities from UMU to Del Val, I see the UMU was better than a 10:1 chance to beat Del Val. With the Aggies hosting, it is now only 7.3:1. Is that another way of stating the 91%/9% and 88%/12% probabilities?

(Queue the Jim Carrey meme, "I got a chance.")

4
Bethel fans highlight the stats at the top of the list in fewest penalties, fewest interceptions and fewest fumbles. The Royals just don't beat themselves.
I am glad that the CRU are catching Jaran Roste. That will be a true test.

We have been pretty provincial down here for the last 7 weeks on the playoffs, that the Texas Sub-Bracket sends one team to the Stagg and the other 30 teams fight it out.

I am really anticipating this one. This has been a brutal bracket. HSU Vs Trinity, Trinity Vs UMHB, UMHB vs Bethel with the winner getting to catch NCC to get to the Stagg.

Wartburg and Aurora are the Cinderella's this year.

For Lazindex, NCC vs Ithaca is a 2-possession game and Bornpwerindex has it a 3-possession margin for NCC.

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Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 27, 2022, 11:54:19 pm »
Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns
No.

I want to see how well Del Val does at home against UMU. HFA ought to be 5 points in this case, maybe an 8 point swing, by NOT going to Alliance.

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In a fortuitous turn of events, I was already flying into Austin Saturday night for work. I moved my flight up to Friday night. Trying to decide if I drive up to Benton late Friday or early Saturday. Open to any and all suggestions on places to stay and eat while I’m down your way. Looking forward to seeing the stadium in person after merely driving past on a work trip down to Waco/Austin earlier this fall.
Austin to Belton is "one continuous city". Find the lodging accommodations that are most convenient.

Etchglow is right about BBQ and TexMex.
If you have been to Austin frequently, then you are basically familiar with Texas cuisine.

I won't be able to come, but I encourage you to reach out to UMHB fans who are going. They are wonderful hosts.

7
Weather forecast for Belton next Saturday is 44% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-60s.

UMHB fans are very hospitable so I encourage Bethel/MIAC fans to come on down.  (No, I am not a UMHB grad.)

If you fly into San Antonio, I suggest that you look into spending a night in Gruene (pronouced "green").

https://www.gruenetexas.com/eat.php

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Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 26, 2022, 11:09:49 pm »
Watching the Wash Huskies /WashSt Cougars..
The Wash St QB, Cameron Ward, played his high school ball at West Columbia HS, West Columbia, TX, just south of Houston.

I recommend a fun book to read on the origin and history of the Air Raid Offense, The Perfect Pass: American Genius and the Reinvention of Football by SC Gwynne.

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We get to see Bethel's QB Jaran Roste next week.

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4th Q, 10 minutes left in McMinville. BU 30 Linfield 13.
Perhaps the CRU will have another home game.

11
The UMHB penalty on the kickoff was FOOLISH!

UMHB recovered the next play.

12
After the UMHB FG, UMHB's Avila kicks off into the end zone, into the wind.

13
The drone cam is a nice addition, but the producer is jumping around on the camera angles at very disorienting times.

He will go from press box wide angle, to press box zoom, to press box wide angle to 2nd press box, to 2 more camera angles. About the 5:44 point in the 1st quarter, I counted 6 camera angles in rapid fashion, making it hard to follow.

14
No doubt UMHB can turn it on and will likely do so during the playoffs. 

Trinity, meanwhile, can shut things down as they have demonstrated all season.

This dynamic played out last year and the TU-UMHB encounter was, in my humble opinion, the apex game of the playoffs.

The energy from both the TU and HSU fans last weekend was amazing. It was no kidding startling to hear the roar come across the field from the HSU fans!  Not a common event at HM Stevens field.

Looking forward to an epic game on Saturday.  Go Texas!
I strongly agree.

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General football / Re: D3 Playoffs
« on: November 22, 2022, 12:47:34 am »
Today's podcast talked about greatest upsets in the history of the 5-week playoff.

In 2004, Pool C UMHB goes to Trinity and wins 32-13.
They travel to HSU, which received the 1st round bye, ostensibly the #1 seed in that bracket, and beat the Cowboys 42-28.

UMHB went to W&J in the 3rd round and beat the Presidents 52-16.

Is that an equivalent of a #7 (bottom-most) seed upsetting 3 higher seeds?

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