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Messages - Flying Weasel

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1
Men's soccer / Re: WC 2022
« on: Today at 04:14:31 pm »
Mexico is eliminated, depending on tie breakers it was on a stoppage time goal by Saudi Arabia, not digging deep enough to find out if they or Poland would have progressed if the score had stayed 2-0.

If both games had stayed 2-0, Mexico and Poland would still have been tied after the first 5 tie-breakers and Mexico would have been eliminated on the basis of the Fair Play (they had more yellow cards than Poland).  That's why they needed to push for a third goal (or hope Argentina scored one more).  Thing is, after Saudi Arabia scored, a last minute goal by Mexico would have seen them advance ahead of Poland on the basis of the 2nd tie-breaker: goal scored.  Wild stuff.

A lot easier to enjoy the craziness today as a neutral than if this had involved the U.S.!!!

2
Men's soccer / Re: WC 2022
« on: November 21, 2022, 09:46:15 pm »
Generally annoying game — and not just because Bale was playing.

Still, whoever made that tactical foul when Turner came for a walkabout deserves MotM.
That was Ream - and I commented to my son, a Ream
Hater, that the foul was our best play in the second half!

Actually it was Kellyn Acosta who fouled Bale at the 50.  But yes, it was our best play because you know Bale was going to score from there. 

As also a Liverpool fan and Philadelphia Union fan, I know that Bale would have scored that if not for Acosta's intervention, just like I knew he would convert the PK despite how much I was cheering for Turner to come up huge with the save.  In fact, just minutes before the PK, I texted my brothers that we really needed a second goal to Bale-proof the result. On my list of most despised players, Bale is pushing for the top spot.

Such a disappointing result after the opening 45. A second first half goal wouldn't have been undeserved and, as it turned out, was needed.  Wales made halftime adjustments and we didn't really have an answer for that.  Spent a lot of time (and energy) chasing and unable to keep possession or attack with numbers for much of the second half.  Did a little better once the subs got made.  Advancement could very well come down to goal difference now, and unfortunately I'm not feeling that good about us doing better against England than Wales does. Glad we get England first, then Iran so we have a better feel for what might be required in that last game.

3
Men's soccer / Re: Ties and Overtime
« on: November 18, 2022, 09:45:14 am »
If I'm not mistaken, at one point overtime was two 15 minute periods with no sudden victory/golden goal, then, if still tied, up to two 10- or 15-minute sudden victory periods, for a potential 50 or 60 minutes of overtime. 

4
Men's soccer / Re: Ties and Overtime
« on: November 15, 2022, 09:36:38 pm »
Curious as to thoughts on the NCAA OT policy as it relates to the 22-23 season. As we all know the NCAA eliminated OT in regular season therefore resulting in a significant numbers of tied matches.

Just to review what was demonstrated/concluded further up in the thread: the lack of overtime during the regular season did not change how many games were tied after 90 minutes.  Naturally, because some overtime games have game-winning goals, the lack of overtime drove up ties.

Secondly (I may be wrong about this) but dropping sudden victory and having two full OT periods seems to have resulted in too many matches that went to PKs which I’m sure many agree is not the best way to end a match. I believe there were 5 matches determined by PKs in 21-22 and so far after two rounds we have already seen 10 this year in tournament.

You could only conclude that dropping the "golden goal" resulted in too many matches going to PK's IF there were games in which one team scored in overtime and then the other team equalized.  That did not happen in any of the 14 overtime games so far in this year's tournament.  10 of those 14 overtimes games saw no goal scored leading to PK's.  3 games had one team score a single goal and win, and 1 game had a team score twice and win.  Thus the lack of the "golden goal" made zero difference in how often games went to PK's.  Unless you are making the argument that because an overtime goal could be equalized, teams had less incentive to try to score versus taking their chances in the PK shootout.  Not sure I'd buy that that.  Most times an overtime will stand up (not be equalized), so I doubt there would have been any significant change in motivation to chase after an overtime goal.  Like in the past, inferior teams may feel their interests are best served by playing for the tie and PK's while superior teams prefer to try to score and avoid the chap shoot of a PK shootout.

From the full-season numbers given a few posts above, games that go to overtime had a game-winner ("golden goal") roughly 55% of the time and finished tied 45% of the time.  In this year's tournament, only 28.6% of overtime games had an overtime goal scored, while 71.4% remained tied.  That begs the question: Are there less goals scored in overtime in the tournament (over time, not just this year) than across the regular season in years past when there was overtime (but no Pks)?  Given how much is on the line, do teams play more conservative and take less risks in the tournament than they would in the regular season?  It's possible, BUT in a regular season overtime game (thinking of years past, of course), there is no PK shootout so if you can remain tied you get the point and avoid a loss unlike in the tournament where the shootout looms which could end your season.  That would seem to motivate better teams to go for the win in a tournament overtime game rather than take their chances in the shootout.


I believe there were 5 matches determined by PKs in 21-22 and so far after two rounds we have already seen 10 this year in tournament.

In 2019, there were 11 overtime games the first weekend, 8 of which went to penalty kick shootouts.  Sure, 10 is more than 8, and 10 could very well be the most PK shootouts the opening weekend, but these things do fluctuate and only by looking further back as well as waiting to see what happens in the coming years could any firm conclusions be reached as to an abrupt shift due to changes with overtime (no "golden goal") versus a trend versus randomness.  I suspect it's largely random fluctuations.  Over time I expect the random overtime game in which both teams score in overtime resulting in a shootout that would not have occurred with the "golden goal" in place.  Probably won't happen often enough to significantly change the numbers/percentages of games going to PK shootouts.

5
Men's soccer / Re: Liberty League
« on: November 14, 2022, 02:20:14 pm »
Being a even-numbered year with men having hosting priority the first weekend, Amherst was going to be the host as the highest seed in their pod (and their quadrant overall).  Whether St. Lawrence bid to host or not wouldn't have mattered. 

Whether St. Lawrence bid to host or not, in theory, should not have impacted where the Saints were placed in the brackets as the bracketing should be completed before they start looking at hosting assignments. I'm not sure I can completely 100% believe that potential hosting options aren't in the back of their minds when forming the brackets, especially out west, but I can imagine it's minimal.  So I wonder if the committee determines who are their top 16 seeds (based on the selection/ranking criteria) and, to the extent that geography cooperates, gives them each their own 1st/2nd Round pod.  Looking at this year's brackets and the first/top teams in each pod bracket which corresponds to the highest seed in that pod, and comparing those teams to the final Regional Rankings and data, it seems very plausible that those are the committee's top 16 seeds.  St. Thomas was the highest seed in their pod but did not host--could be because they did not bid to host or because of something the committee found unsatisfactory about their field/facility/hosting capabilities.  And of all the pod top seeds, St. Thomas would also be the most questionable to have been among the top 16 seeds nationally.  Babson or St. Lawrence might have been the 16th seed nationally, but geography meant someone out west needed to host a pod of west teams (there were five Region X teams in the field, and they weren't going to fly them all to separate pods). 

So who knows, St. Lawrence may have been the 16th seed and if not for the west being without a top 16 seed, might have had their own pod (and avoided Amherst) even if they couldn't host due to not having put in a bid.  Now that's just a mental exercise and speculation on my part, and to be honest I'd guess Babson would have been ahead of St. Lawrence in the seeding and more likely to have been the 16th seed if St. Thomas was not among the top 16. Either way, St. Lawrence likely was very close to having their own pod, but when they didn't get that, geography/travel and trying to keep conference rivals separated as long as possible  (I don't think any pod has two teams from the same conference) resulting in the Saints being handed a tougher 2nd round opponent than their seeding would have otherwise earned them. 

Regardless of teams' seeding or WLT records, to have had the best shot of advancing to the Sweet 16, Messiah would have probably been better off with any of nearly 80% of the teams in the tournament over Williams.  But that's who they got.  Not all paths to the Final Four are equal, and sometimes you get a favorable path, other times not.  Champions have to win and overcome whatever they're faced with, and this year the Falcons didn't do that.

6
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 10:18:53 pm »
If it's not obvious from Stevens and F&M feeds, it's absolutely gorgeous on the East Coast today. High 60s and mostly sunny up and down the seaboard.

More than gorgeous, incredible for a mid Nov game. A bit colder tomorrow.

Yeah, here south central PA it was very nice.  Sunny in the morning thru to the 1:00 pm start times when it turned overcast, but temps were comfortable in the 60's throughout most of the afternoon.  After all the concern about the weather, it wasn't really an issue.  I don't think we got as much rain as thought possible on Friday, so field conditions weren't as much of an issue as they might have been.  Messiah's grass field has been in really good shape, so it handled the rain fairly well even though I did notice occasional footing issues throughout the games.

7
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 10:02:09 pm »
It's interesting that Mary Hardin-Baylor and Pacific Lutheran are playing each other in the 1st Round of both the men's and women's tournaments, with the same scheduled start time (7:30 pm CT)*, just two hours driving distance apart.

* -  the women's game had a late start because the earlier game went to PK's.

8
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 09:54:02 pm »
St. Olaf making quick work of Lake Forest.  Up 4-0 within the first 20 minutes.

9
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 08:37:03 pm »
Game over.  North Central survive; win 3-2.  Keep undefeated season going.  Wild finish to the game!

10
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 08:33:26 pm »
But 10-man North Central ties it up with 2:15 left.

And a minute later the Cardinals score again!  Lead 3-2!  Wow!

11
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 08:29:11 pm »
And North Central is down to 10 men with 15 minutes remaining in regulation.

And now UW-Superior, with the man advantage, goes up 2-1 with under 5 to play.

12
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 08:09:19 pm »
This Chicago game is a little too close...I don't doubt the outcome, but does it mean anything?  Might be fortunate they got the quad they did...

Chicago's players took that last post a little personally and scored a second to make it 2-0

And now BSU scores to make for a more interesting final 4:26.  Chicago up 2-1.

13
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 07:19:56 pm »
I wasn't watching the game, but surprised to see that Chicago is still scoreless against Birmingham-Southern.  BSU has 7 shots, 4 SOG. There were a lot of unexpectedly close games at halftime today, and a good number that favorites that left.  Certainly expect Chicago to win this.

Unsurprisingly, it didn't take Chicago long after the break to open up the scoring.  1-0 for the Maroons.

14
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 07:13:13 pm »
I wasn't watching the game, but surprised to see that Chicago is still scoreless against Birmingham-Southern.  BSU has 7 shots, 4 SOG. There were a lot of unexpectedly close games at halftime today, and a good number that favorites that left.  Certainly expect Chicago to win this.

Muhlenberg is the big surprise of the day, knocking off Case Western in PK's.  Case wasn't exactly expected to go real deep in the tournament,  but Muhlenberg (now 9-5-7) wasn't even supposed to be here if F&M and Johns Hopkins had taken care of business in the Centennial playoffs.

15
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance 2022 - Let's Go!
« on: November 12, 2022, 02:48:44 pm »
Franciscan GK keeping the scoreline respectable.  And Franciscan has had two golden chances against the run of play to pull a goal back and shot just wide both times. The game lost whatever edge it ever did have fairly early once Messiah went up 2-0 and even franciscan's late first half goal didn't really change that. Not really the tune-up match for tomorrow's opponent that the Falcons would have wanted, and they'll need to be a lot sharper tomorrow.

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