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Messages - Ralph Turner

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1
NCC fans,
Looking forward to the rematch between UMHB and the Cardinals.

With respect to last year's Stagg Bowl, I imagine those games like a 2000-team, 10-round single elimination video game tournament. There is no doubt about the quality of the players.
The teams slug it out, exchanging blow after blow. The spectators are in a frenzy of excitement as to which one wins. High stakes are on the outcome.

Suddenly, one team strikes a mighty blow, and then another. There is a huge splash of CGI animation. The screen in filled with the widest of imagery. Momentum shifts. There is plenty of time left in the contest. The players on one team now want to strike another blow so they can tell their grandkids how successful they were in the world championship. And, in real time, the dutiful, loyal backup QB playing his last game even is given a chance of a lifetime to make a memory... and does. On that day, two teams left it all on the playing field. Isn't that fun, and admirable!

Anyone who has ever strapped on a helmet just wants to compete against the best. Play hard. Play fair. Enjoy the contest.

2
I think 5 is the lowest I'd go, even before seeing next weeks games, I actually think 4 is more accurate.
It would be Wart vs BU.
Trinity & HSU are close behind, Top 10.

3
That's a good point... it's why they play the game and just don't talk about it... LOVE D3 Football!
+1


4
I know we didn't get by Bethel but they didn't make mistakes... like they did vs UMHB.
...or did UMHB cause the mistakes that Linfield didn't/couldn't?

5
Congrats Bethel.
Really great game.

I think that we need to see the next 2 rounds to determine how good Bethel and the MIAC were this year.

6
General football / Re: D3 Playoffs
« on: December 03, 2022, 06:13:58 pm »
It is so hard to gauge the strength of D3 across the country. Everything to the east and northeast of Alliance OH gets funneled into that Purple Raider sausage maker. I only caught a portion of UMU-DVC but it looked like UMU had the game under control on the road to knock out the best team from 2.5 regions of the country. (RMC, Region 3 lost the DVC without their starting QB.)

Meanwhile, NCC demolished a nominal "power team" in Region 2. So much for everything east and northeast of Alliance OH.

Meanwhile, in the western half of the country, Wartburg "de-shoed" Cinderella and UMHB finally put away a strong Bethel team. I recall the UMHB HSU game where HSU went ahead early in the second quarter, and 3 minutes later, UMHB had struck devastating blows. Bethel goes ahead by 2 scores and 2:40 later BU is behind for the 1st time. UMHB turns the game, just like they did against HSU, and the Royals do not recover.

I will not disparage UMU. Their program is incredible. They rise to the occasion. However, aside from JCU have they met a comparable team? That is what makes the UMU-Wartburg game so intriguing. Did Wartburg claim Cinderella's shoes as booty? We will see.

As for NCC-UMHB, I will be cautious. NCC has been dominating. UMHB has come thru a bracket of doom after fending off HSU and HPU in conference and the gut check caused by the loss at UWW.

7
Who is this clean-cut All-American kid? 

https://gophersports.com/sports/football/roster/jaran-roste/1233

8
Monday morning and I'm still catching up. Big congrats to the road warriors at Bethel, shutting out Linfield in the second half. Going to be an interesting next weekend because I think the Royals could surprise the Cru in Belton.
Respectfully, I don't think so.  This will be the 5th top-level QB that UMHB has seen this year. (UWW, HSU, HPU, Trinity).

9
Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 28, 2022, 01:14:53 am »
Actually, Logan said on our podcast last offseason that Mount Union has one of the lowest home field advantages, because they just beat people the same, home or away.

Here's what switching home field did to Del Val's chances:
https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1596937557912133632
Precisely. There are so few games in the sample in which UMU is facing a roughly comparable opponent to measure. The UMU games are usually Monkey-Stomp by halftime, home or away.

I looked at the last 6 full regular seasons (2022, 2021, 2016 thru 2019) for UMU. They played 54 conference games. The margin in 46 of those games was more than 21 points. The only defeat was the JCU loss in 2016, 31-28 in Alliance. Five of the 8 "close games" were with JCU.

That is not a very large sample size.

With respect to flipping host responsibilities from UMU to Del Val, I see the UMU was better than a 10:1 chance to beat Del Val. With the Aggies hosting, it is now only 7.3:1. Is that another way of stating the 91%/9% and 88%/12% probabilities?

(Queue the Jim Carrey meme, "I got a chance.")

10
Bethel fans highlight the stats at the top of the list in fewest penalties, fewest interceptions and fewest fumbles. The Royals just don't beat themselves.
I am glad that the CRU are catching Jaran Roste. That will be a true test.

We have been pretty provincial down here for the last 7 weeks on the playoffs, that the Texas Sub-Bracket sends one team to the Stagg and the other 30 teams fight it out.

I am really anticipating this one. This has been a brutal bracket. HSU Vs Trinity, Trinity Vs UMHB, UMHB vs Bethel with the winner getting to catch NCC to get to the Stagg.

Wartburg and Aurora are the Cinderella's this year.

For Lazindex, NCC vs Ithaca is a 2-possession game and Bornpwerindex has it a 3-possession margin for NCC.

11
Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 27, 2022, 11:54:19 pm »
Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns
No.

I want to see how well Del Val does at home against UMU. HFA ought to be 5 points in this case, maybe an 8 point swing, by NOT going to Alliance.

12
In a fortuitous turn of events, I was already flying into Austin Saturday night for work. I moved my flight up to Friday night. Trying to decide if I drive up to Benton late Friday or early Saturday. Open to any and all suggestions on places to stay and eat while I’m down your way. Looking forward to seeing the stadium in person after merely driving past on a work trip down to Waco/Austin earlier this fall.
Austin to Belton is "one continuous city". Find the lodging accommodations that are most convenient.

Etchglow is right about BBQ and TexMex.
If you have been to Austin frequently, then you are basically familiar with Texas cuisine.

I won't be able to come, but I encourage you to reach out to UMHB fans who are going. They are wonderful hosts.

13
Weather forecast for Belton next Saturday is 44% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-60s.

UMHB fans are very hospitable so I encourage Bethel/MIAC fans to come on down.  (No, I am not a UMHB grad.)

If you fly into San Antonio, I suggest that you look into spending a night in Gruene (pronouced "green").

https://www.gruenetexas.com/eat.php

14
Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 26, 2022, 11:09:49 pm »
Watching the Wash Huskies /WashSt Cougars..
The Wash St QB, Cameron Ward, played his high school ball at West Columbia HS, West Columbia, TX, just south of Houston.

I recommend a fun book to read on the origin and history of the Air Raid Offense, The Perfect Pass: American Genius and the Reinvention of Football by SC Gwynne.

15
We get to see Bethel's QB Jaran Roste next week.

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