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Messages - Ice Bear

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1
This is the last thing I'll say about the Endicott/Simmons thing. I promise. And I'm not going to be snarky or rude — and I was before, so apologies. And this has gone through snarky drafts. But this is not snark.

Hardin Simmons is afforded the benefit of the doubt by the voters every year. Every year since 2015, they have made it into the Top 10, and occasionally the Top 5. They have not won a single NCAA playoff game in the history of the d3football.com poll. They have lost 20 of their last 21 to Hardin-Baylor.

That doesn't mean the voters are wrong to rank them highly. It means they've been giving Hardin-Simmons the benefit of the doubt when they do it. Because Hardin-Baylor is elite. Because the games are close. Because the NCAA is too cheap to pay for flights so they have often been stuck with the Round 1 rematch vs. UMHB.

But this wasn't Hardin-Baylor. It wasn't close. It wasn't because the NCAA is cheap. And more importantly, this wasn't some hypothetical thought exercise like "Would Hardin Simmons beat [whatever elite team]?"

There's the benefit of the doubt and there's "the actual results don't matter." And that's what this feels like.

Look, I'm old enough to remember Buff State beating Whitewater. That was a program a decade removed from relevancy squeaking out a 1-point win thanks to a 4th and 19 conversion with 30 seconds left. This was not that

This was a team that spent several weeks in the Top 25 last year winning a game in which they never trailed and led by 34 points after the third quarter. Hardin Simmons used three quarterbacks and Endicott blanked them all. Endicott didn't turn the ball over and committed just two penalties for 10 yards.

But here we are again, and like it's been for much of the past 20 years, for a sizable segment of voters, it doesn't seem to matter than Hardin Simmons didn't actually win the game on the field.

So yeah, it's frustrating.

+k my friend. Your thoughts are very well communicated here. I always appreciate your passionate thoughts and expertise.

2
I find it interesting that Greg Thomas picked Union as his most surprising 5-0 team this season. At first, I scratched my head a bit but then after thinking about it, and seeing his reasoning in a response he made to a posted comment, I kind of get it.

This team was 6-4 last year and was steam rolled over the last three games of the season (throw into that the devastating comeback loss to Utica in week 4 as well). I say steamrolled not referring to the score differential per say, but losing three in a row to their top rivals, all at the end of the season. The proverbial air was completely let out of the balloon. Especially after the loss to RPI, which was was absolutely embarrassing. Not because of RPI but because of the way we played. IMHO Union may have found themselves in a place they hadn't been, since Behrman took over...and yes that includes their initial 3-7 season. Move ahead to this this season and you have a new coach, some losses at some key positions (WR and the secondary), and some uncertainty about which direction this team would head in 2023. Who knew what we were going to see? Obviously knowing Pacatte was coming back, Tolbert, a strong D-line and LB core made me think they would be competitive, but I still didn't know and was feeling quite down at the end of last season.

Now, we must take into account this weak schedule, which really consists of three scrimmages, one quasi-test in Springfield, and a Montclair team that I still have no clue about, and you may say, "No, 5-0 was expected." Honestly, I see it either way, it is a surprise they are 5-0 and it's not a surprise they are 5-0.

However, what Greg did say, that does really make sense to me is the way in which Union has arrived at 5-0, is surprising. They have really looked good, especially the two times they faced ok competition. Obviously IC, Hobart, and RPI seem like they are big steps up, and I think they are. But Union has looked very good on both sides of the ball. So good that I've even come to "nit pick" a bit to point out any weaknesses that I think may hurt the Garnet Chargers against the big boys.

So, taking all into account, this has been a very good start for Union and maybe one where some say they could be the best of the four...or at the very least in the mix. Either way I applaud Greg for his pick of Union even though it's not such an easy sell. Gutsy call Greg. Well done.

Yeah, I think it’s more the style that he was deeming surprising.  Maybe 5-0 is not a shocker given the schedule, but I don’t think many would have predicted that Union would have outscored its opponents 205-14 in the first four games and be among the top 10 nationally in fifteen different statistical categories.  That said, I think many did not expect much from Union because they didn’t realize how much Union brought back this year, and the fact that 6-4 final record looks a lot worse than what might have been, as Union blew three blown late leads against Utica, Hobart, and Ithaca.

On that same column, I thought Greg’s take on the poll issues we’ve been discussing was really thoughtful.  Folks should check it out, if they haven’t.

Agreed, and there are comments on that column that may be of interest to LL people (including responses from me where a poster really misquoted me).

That was a great ATN and certainly some interesting comments in there. Regarding the discussion earlier in the week here it seems as if more than half of the voters went with the more head-to-head approach voting Endicott higher in the poll than H-S. I think sometimes here in the East, where there is a victory or a game that is very well played over one of the top 5, even top 10 teams in the nation, we want there to be an immediate acknowledgement of that. I certainly understand why, and sometimes feel that way myself (and definitely have in the past). With that said I think it also comes up because many here in the east are starved to have a team relevant to that top 10, that top 5 (which I believe there is usually a significant gap between teams 5-10 and 1-5). Many of us are old farts who were around when teams in the East were "that good" miss those days. However as I age and continue to watch and support D3 football I tend to take the approach of really enjoying what I have right in front of me. Of course I also enjoy the top games/teams/matchups but I don't yearn for Union to be there as I used to. I believe IC made a point a while back about something to do with this and it made a mark on me. It's ok to bot be in those top 5 or top 10 teams. To be with those other 230 teams-ish is fine and good football from true student athletes across all of D3 is what is great.

3
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: Yesterday at 03:26:38 pm »
  1)   North Central       175     ( 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1)
  2)   Mount Union         162     ( 2,  2,  2,  2,  3,  4,  5)
  3)   UW-Whitewater       159     ( 2,  2,  3,  4,  4,  4,  4)
  4)   Wartburg            157     ( 2,  3,  3,  3,  4,  5,  5)
  5)   UW-River Falls      149     ( 3,  3,  4,  5,  6,  6,  6)
  6)   Trinity (TX)        126     ( 5,  7,  7,  8,  9,  9, 11)
  7)   Wheaton             122     ( 6,  7,  8,  8,  9, 10, 12)
  8)   St John's           121     ( 5,  6,  7,  8,  8, 10, 17)
  9)   Johns Hopkins       118     ( 6,  7,  8,  9,  9,  9, 16)
 10)   John Carroll        107     ( 6,  7, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15)
 11)   Susquehanna          97     ( 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 13, 17)
 12)   Randolph-Macon       88     (10, 10, 11, 11, 14, 18, 20)
 13)   Linfield             84     ( 5,  7,  8, 13, 20, 21, 24)
 14)   Aurora               79     (12, 13, 13, 14, 16, 16, 19)
 15)   Cortland             76     (11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 19, 20)
 16)   Alma                 74     (12, 14, 15, 15, 15, 17, 20)
 17)   UW-Oshkosh           73     (14, 14, 15, 15, 16, 16, 19)
 18)   Ithaca               68     (11, 12, 13, 17, 18, 20, 23)
 19)   UW-La Crosse         47     (10, 17, 18, 18, 20, --, --)
 20)   Endicott             46     (15, 16, 18, 18, 19, 24, --)
T21)   Hardin-Simmons       29     (17, 19, 21, 21, 24, 25, --)
T21)   Muhlenberg           29     (19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, --)
 23)   Wash & Jeff          17     (19, 21, 23, 24, --, --, --)
 24)   Mary Hardin-Baylor   15     (21, 21, 23, 25, 25, --, --)
 25)   Whitworth            10     (16, --, --, --, --, --, --)

 26)   Berry                 9     (22, 22, 25)
 27)   UW-Platteville        8     (18)
 28)   Delaware Valley       5     (22, 25)
T29)   Bethel                4     (22)
T29)   DePauw                4     (22)
T31)   Albion                3     (23)
T31)   Coe                   3     (23)
 33)   Redlands              3     (23)
T34)   Carnegie Mellon       2     (24)
T34)   Denison               2     (24)
T34)   Grove City            2     (25, 25)
T34)   Howard Payne          2     (24)


You guys do a very nice job here. Let me know if you ever need another contributor. I can't say I'd be on point as I am still working to extend my reach to as much of the D3 football world as I can. Again, nice job fellas.

4
I find it interesting that Greg Thomas picked Union as his most surprising 5-0 team this season. At first, I scratched my head a bit but then after thinking about it, and seeing his reasoning in a response he made to a posted comment, I kind of get it.

This team was 6-4 last year and was steam rolled over the last three games of the season (throw into that the devastating comeback loss to Utica in week 4 as well). I say steamrolled not referring to the score differential per say, but losing three in a row to their top rivals, all at the end of the season. The proverbial air was completely let out of the balloon. Especially after the loss to RPI, which was was absolutely embarrassing. Not because of RPI but because of the way we played. IMHO Union may have found themselves in a place they hadn't been, since Behrman took over...and yes that includes their initial 3-7 season. Move ahead to this this season and you have a new coach, some losses at some key positions (WR and the secondary), and some uncertainty about which direction this team would head in 2023. Who knew what we were going to see? Obviously knowing Pacatte was coming back, Tolbert, a strong D-line and LB core made me think they would be competitive, but I still didn't know and was feeling quite down at the end of last season.

Now, we must take into account this weak schedule, which really consists of three scrimmages, one quasi-test in Springfield, and a Montclair team that I still have no clue about, and you may say, "No, 5-0 was expected." Honestly, I see it either way, it is a surprise they are 5-0 and it's not a surprise they are 5-0.

However, what Greg did say, that does really make sense to me is the way in which Union has arrived at 5-0, is surprising. They have really looked good, especially the two times they faced ok competition. Obviously IC, Hobart, and RPI seem like they are big steps up, and I think they are. But Union has looked very good on both sides of the ball. So good that I've even come to "nit pick" a bit to point out any weaknesses that I think may hurt the Garnet Chargers against the big boys.

So, taking all into account, this has been a very good start for Union and maybe one where some say they could be the best of the four...or at the very least in the mix. Either way I applaud Greg for his pick of Union even though it's not such an easy sell. Gutsy call Greg. Well done.

5
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 28, 2023, 07:41:08 pm »
Ok, it’d be nice to continue our football discussion without losing karma.

6
Speaking of using your helmet / targeting. Saw this story where a Steelers running back was fined an entire games pay for using his helmet inappropriately. He wasn’t even penalized in the game.

https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1705650385036210646?s=20

Reminded me of this play in an SJU/Olaf game a couple years ago. Maybe the MIAC/D3 should allow reviews of of non calls and eject/suspend players after the fact.
https://youtu.be/sBU1OHr0LmA?si=Z9WU5I-TCx9TgFxv

I may be getting soft in my old age but man that was some ferocious contact! Not making a judgement here because I don't know what to  think...but man football is a tough game.

On a side note Bethel has a big, "bounce back" game this weekend at home against the Gusties. I would really like to see a W here with some offensive output. Also, I may have missed this information but does anyone know Geebli's timeline?

I thought Coach Johnson was quoted as saying Geebli was done for 2023 season

Thanks for the info Biggie +k. What a shame about Geebli. I thought he was going to have a very good season.

7
Speaking of using your helmet / targeting. Saw this story where a Steelers running back was fined an entire games pay for using his helmet inappropriately. He wasn’t even penalized in the game.

https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1705650385036210646?s=20

Reminded me of this play in an SJU/Olaf game a couple years ago. Maybe the MIAC/D3 should allow reviews of of non calls and eject/suspend players after the fact.
https://youtu.be/sBU1OHr0LmA?si=Z9WU5I-TCx9TgFxv

I may be getting soft in my old age but man that was some ferocious contact! Not making a judgement here because I don't know what to think...but man football is a tough game.

On a side note Bethel has a big, "bounce back" game this weekend at home against the Gusties. I would really like to see a W here with some offensive output. Also, I may have missed this information but does anyone know Geebli's timeline?

8
On Friday I’m leaving for a week of deep sea fishing in Far North Queensland where there will be no internet communications.  If I come home on the spear of a marlin, please remember me fondly.

I’ll way up in Cooktown on the Cape York Peninsula and we’ll be fishing off the top of the Great Barrier Reef on the edge of the Coral Sea.

Have a wonderful time Oz! This sounds amazing!

9
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 28, 2023, 12:12:21 pm »
Mach's amazingly mind-blowing predictions:

Hobart - 21
Ithaca - 24
I went back and forth on this one. I actually think Hobart might be a smidge better, but I'm going with the home field advantage this week, and thinking Ithaca squeaks on out.

St. Lawrence - 0
Union - 35
Not seeing much of a game here.

Rochester - 42
Buffalo St. - 10
I do think Rochester might hold their own this year and Buff St. just isn't good.

Good luck to all. Hopefully RPI is healing up nicely and getting ready to host the bomb-squad next week.

Here are my picks:

SLU at Union - Throughout the week, and after reviewing Palooza's thoughts from last week, I think I may have been too critical of Union. I just struggle giving credit to teams with week schedules and maybe within those big wins, I have been looking too close for any Union flaws. I'm thinking Springfield is still a decent team and Montclair...well I don't really know. Either way this one won't be close. The Garnet Charger D will give up it's second TD of the season, but otherwise they will shuts the Saints down. Union dominates 42-7

Rochester at Buffalo State - Rochester is obviously an improved team. How much have they improved in relation to the big 4? As happy as I am for their success thus far, I admittedly don't know, but I am guessing they are still not there. Regardless, they'll get a pretty easy W over what continues to be an abysmal Buffalo State team. Rochester 27 Buffalo State 10

Hobart at Ithaca - For me, this is a tough one to call. While I still had IC as my top team in the league, this is Hobarts "back to top form" game. I don't believe the Statesmen are all the way back to their usual form as a whole, but I think they are pretty close and show it with an over the top effort on the road. How tall is the artificial turf at Butterfield? I wouldn't be surprised if it is at least ankle high. Hobart 21 Ithaca 17

I'm hoping for some great LL football this weekend with absolutely no injuries and some very entertaining games. Good luck to all.
[/quote]

10
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 27, 2023, 03:04:57 pm »
Let me get WEEK #5 picks out of the way, only 3 games;

THE SENECAS      27     THE CAYUGAS        24.   This could be wishful thinking, but I just have a feeling this is the year ;D

LIGHT SOCKETS   35.   NORTHLANDERS. 10.      Larries unsuccessful at causing a black out

YELLOWJACKETS. 32.   BUFFMEN.            13.      The Yellowjackets go 4-1 heading into Poppe's Chargers next week     


UPDATED PICS:

Participant                  Wins per week.                        Total.      Percentage

ICAlum(the instigator).      5/6/5/-                            16/19*.           .842
UnionPalooza.                   7/5/- /4                           16/18.             .888
Bartman.                          6/7/5/5                            23/25.             .920
Ice Bear.                          6/6/4/5.                            21/25.             .840
Jersey 42.                        6/-/-/5                              11/12.             .916
Machiavelli                       -/5/6/5.                             16/18.             .889
Oline.                              -/4/-/-                               4/7.                 .571
IC798891.                       -/-/5./-                               5/6.               . 833
UFAN.                              -/-/-/4                                4/5.               .800

* no selection for the first  Friday night  game was made

MOST CORRECT PICKS YTD(Bartman,IB); Highest Percentage YTD(Bartman, J42)( Requires minimum of 5 weeks)


I appreciate you keeping track Bartman. This certainly adds to the fun of it. +k

11
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 27, 2023, 09:00:55 am »
I'm just curious. Does everyone think many voters are looking at the Endicott's win as a fluke? Are they focusing on their injuries as a reason? Thoughts?

I know we don't have a lot to pull from here in the East compared to the top tier of teams nationally. We really haven't been there in decades. However, to me, this seemed like a genuine W for Endicott over the 5th ranked team in the country. To me it seems that Hardin-Simmons seems to get punished with the big drop in the poll but Endicott isn't really getting rewarded.

This doesn't happen here in the East very often. From everything I read, from Pat's interpretation of the game on the podcast, etc. this was not only a win but a pretty convincing one. For IC and others to question the rankings, this early in the season does not seem at all unreasonable to me. I mean that's one of the perks of the poll, of these boards, of our passion. To discuss our perspectives.

While I'm almost 100% sure that no team in the East belongs in the top 5, maybe even the top 10/15? The possible early season over ranking of H-S, should not only be recognized by their fall in the poll, but the admittance that they are not superior to a team they lost to by 27 and by being placed behind them in the poll.

12
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 26, 2023, 11:56:27 am »
LIBERTY LEAGUE WEEKLY AWARDS, Congratulations!


Offensive Performer of the Week: Johnny Colombi, Hobart(3 Passing TDs and ! rushing TD)
Defensive Performer of the Week: Jaden Duncan, Union
Special Teams Performer of the Week: Jared Elstein, RPI
Rookie of the Week: E.J. Taylor, Hobart
Honor Roll: Jaimen Bliss, Hobart; Michael Fiore, Union; Tawa Jordy, Rochester; Will Lederman, St. Lawrence; Ryan Rose, Rochester; Ryan Watson, St. Lawrence; Kayden White, RPI

What are your thoughts on Colombi?

13
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 24, 2023, 06:47:02 pm »
Today's D3football National poll has Ithaca moving up to #17 ahead of Hardin Simmons and Endicott coming in at #21, and Union getting a few points and RPI getting a point. Sad little Hobart has no points :'(, but then, didn't expect any. So based on all of this input , my new LL ranking is:

1. Ithaca
2. RPI
3. Union
4.Hobart
5.U of R
6.SLU
7.Buffalo State

I do think that any of the top four is capable of beating another top 4 this season, and the Yellowjackets will sting one of them this year. Don't look at statistics to make comparisons at this point in the season....the only statistics that count will be the LL conference statistics. My biggest hope is that the Hobart-U of R game at the Boz is relevant for the LL title in 7 weeks.

Nice Bartman. Certainly fair to put Union ahead of Hobart. I think at this point those two may be the most interchangeable. For some reason I can’t let go of last seasons dismal ending for the Dutchmen at the hands of Hobart, IC and RPI. I guess I’ve got to see the Dutch defeat one of them before I believe they are above the 4 spot.

I also like your thought on Rochester taking out one of the four. It may be possible but I just don’t think the Yellowjackets are there yet. We shall see. Love the LL play!

14
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 24, 2023, 02:47:24 pm »
I agree he had a good game, but I disagree that he was on target all day. Obviously I’m picking low hanging fruit here and admittedly maybe being a bit too critical. With that said, he missed some throws, as does every QB. I love the kid but his accuracy is inconsistent at times IMHO and if I’m being critical and looking at small flaws that could cost Union against the likes of the other three, his accuracy, at times, is one of them IMHO.

15
Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 24, 2023, 12:04:20 pm »
My updated LL rankings:

1.) Ithaca
2.) RPI
3.) Hobart
4.) Union
5.) Rochester
6.) SLU
7.) Buffalo State

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