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Messages - Ice Bear

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Ice Bear says if Bethel wins the TOP they will win the game...ok, maybe not. However, Ice says if Bethel wins the TOP, they will win the TOP and that, in itself, surpassess the importatnce of oxygen.

Really looking forward to this game and wish Bethel the best.

If UWW’s recent games vs. UMHB are indicative, imo Bethel (and fans) need to be prepared to accept there will be great plays made by the Cru. BU may have blanket coverage on Miller and Jordan, but those two make plays despite. Also, King will take off for a big/athletic run just when you think he’ll be sacked. BU must respond on offense. I guess what I’m saying is it’s unlikely BU will shut down the Cru offense, so BU needs to win primarily on offense yet still come up with a handful of defensive stops.

In the 2022 game, UWW dominated the TOP despite only a 3 yd average on 36 carries. The short/intermediate passing game for UWW kept the chains moving. UWW’s persistent offense kept the pressure on UMHB. BU should be able to do the same.

Ice Bear says this is a great point emma, great point.

One of my major concerns for Bethel (now I hate Bethel, so I am not really concerned  :P) is how they will deal with UMHB's passing attack.  I know UMHB has some extraordinary athletes, and SJU was able to move the ball consistently through the air against Bethel.

Ice just nearly snarfed his seal blood when reading this.

Ice Bear is in total agreement here. To Ice, the biggest piece to this game is the Royal Baptist D. Ice has watched them bend, especially through the air, and hold just enough this season for Rockin Roste and Co. to get the W. IIBHO against this mother****ing team the bend but not break **** won't work. Ice feels the Royal secondary will have to step up like the RAF and police that ****ing air space like it's war time in Europe. Ice says if the RAF can force UMHB to "have to" run the ball instead of just "wanting to" run the ball, they may create enough wiggle room for Roste to have a shot. Ice says this is one hell of a tough game for the Royals especially with that UMHB offense seemingly peaking.

Ice says these are two excellent ****ing football teams right here. ;)

One of the fumbles appeared to be the QB/FB mesh, the other ones the defense stripped the QB and Fullback it looked like.  (so 1 exchange, two caused).  For NCC, Ithaca just has to play mistake free football.  Isn't that always the plan?  Make less mistakes than your opponent?

I do think Ithaca will need to run the ball.  For once their oline seems to have the size to compete against the big boys with regular zone read.  They will need to get some first downs (AND TOP) if they want to hang.  SC is a tough gauge because of their option but Ithaca's defense has been very good in almost every game this year.  NCC's RB is a lot like SC's rbs (basically fullbacks as running backs) so stopping Greenfield will be key.

Ice Bear says word Utah. IC will absolutely have to run the ball with some success, possess the ball (that mother****ing TOP again), and play the NCC run as hard as they can. Ice feels in games like this, and most others, when the favored team can FORCE the underdog to become one dimensional, the fat lady begins to waddle her way out to midfield. Ice says never have those Bomber boys up front been so important on both sides of the ball.

Congrats to Ithaca on a well played game against a very tough Springfield squad. Next week will be very interesting as Carnegie Mellon showed how to approach NCC to stretch the game and give them a chance against one the top teams in D3 . I'm sure the TOP analysis by JU will uncover some analytics for the next game ;)

Ok here we go:

SC came into the game first in the country in TOP, with 35:05, while Ithaca was first in the country in 4th down conversions with an 81% conversion rate.  These two statistics would collide with one another in this game.  Ithaca went 3/4 on 4th down while also dominating the TOP 35:11 to 24:49.  I gotta think that by Ithaca converting three 4th downs, this gives basically Ithaca at least 5 minutes more in TOP.  Ithaca also had 43 rushes to Springfield's 45, yet the first down count was only 20-17 in favor of Ithaca.

Was this part of Ithaca's strategy going into the game? 

One thing I noticed is that Ithaca (playing a 4 down front) would bring both middle linebackers right up to the line in what appeared to be a timed run blitz.  Both middle backers appeared to be right in the A gaps.  They were very disciplined with this and appeared to only go offsides once.  On the positive side, they had nine tackles for loss.  Springfield was FIRST in the country for tackles for loss with 2.55 average a game.  For perspective, the worst TFL allowed teams in the country average 10.3, 10.6 and Millikin averaged 12. 

I then was a little puzzled with another one of Springfield's stats.  They were 2nd in the country in turnovers lost?  2nd!?  An option team with a turnover rate that good had me thinking.  Take a quick look at Salisbury and they are 2nd to last in the country in that category with 22 fumbles lost.  Why does this happen?  Is it because SC doesn't pitch it?  Well looking at the IC game it appeared that SC did not pitch it.  Their fullbacks had 28 carries, the QBs had 16 carries and the halfbacks had 4 carries (one for loss).  The week before SC halfbacks had 19 carries, while the fullbacks had 38 and the QB had 5.  Go to the SC/Union game and the fullbacks had 24 carries, the QB had 18, and the halfbacks 16. 

Now its clear that SC was much more balanced versus Union and Endicott, although Union's defense did a better job than Ithaca did (although losing the TOP battle 35 to 25).  Did Ithaca simply cover the pitch man better?  SC's fullbacks still seemed to get a ton of big runs.

This brings us back to TOP and I think is simply comes down to SC fumbling and Ithaca's 4th down conversion rate.  SC kept the ball all year as seen in their turnover ranking.  In this game though they turned it over 4 times.  They also allowed IC to convert three 4th downs, and this would impact IC's 3rd down conversion rate as well (which was not great at 4/14).
    +k on the analysis . I didn't watch the entire game, but were the turnovers more exchange fumbles than caused fumbles by the IC defense? Moving to this week, NCC is on a different level, but the CW defense really showed up in the first half, and certainly did not get rolled. Do you think the IC defense can perform at the CW level? Wingfield is a wild card and the NCC defense is certainly preparing for his mobility and passing skills. I believe the Bombers need to get off to a fast start in order to have a chance against NCC and Wingfield having the game of his life is key. This will be a great week for measuring the progress of the East(if any)  with Ithaca and Delaware Valley playing 2 of the Platinum level programs.

Ice Bear says this is right on Bartman (Ice says as ****ing usual you are on point). Ice thinks this weekend will be a great barometer for our region and Eastern part of the country in comparison with the best out there. Ice says, oh by the way, absolutely no pressure.

Ice says in all seriousness both IC and Del Val have had just stellar seasons and nothing, not even a ****ing homogenizing from the likes of NCC and UMU can take that away...Ice says with that said it would be or-****ing-gasmic to see two very competitive games. Ice thinks IC has the better chance to keep it close as they are just so impressive across the board.

Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: November 28, 2022, 12:06:38 pm »

Not a pretty game and if Springfield didn't fumble all those times it is probably a different outcome.  And only one of those fumbles was your typical option style fumble. 


I think Ithaca got some breaks in that regard. But I think Springfield got their share too. Wingfield missed a wide open Leonard-Osborne who got behind the defense for a TD right before the end of the first half, and the Bombers missed a short FG in the second half. Largely, I think that stuff came out in the wash.

This is such a gutsy IC team, and they get better as the game goes on.  They're able — once again — to take advantage of the opponent putting the ball on the ground, and get some big plays from the offense. They're incredibly creative in getting their playmakers the ball in space, particularly Leonard-Osborne and Anderson, and every week they seem to have a new offensive wrinkle. Williams has emerged as a great lead back, as well.

It's house money at this point. Beating NCC would be a huge upset, but this has been an amazing season. 12-0 for the first time since 1986. Winning Cortaca in front of 40,000 (and on TV) at Yankee Stadium. A pair of home playoff wins to impress recruits. Heck of a run

Ice Bear completely agrees IC. Ice says this is definitely cup runneth over type ****! Ice couldn't be happier for and more proud of IC!

Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: November 28, 2022, 10:40:31 am »
If Delaware Valley gets a home game against Mt.Union, why doesn't Ithaca get a home game against NCC? All teams are undefeated and the Eastern teams have higher SOS, but evidently that is not the only factor.

It's a fair question. When Pat had the NatCom Chair on the podcast to discuss the methodology, prior to selection Sunday, I'm pretty sure I remember him saying the SOS had some nuance. I.e. it's not just is one team higher than another in SOS, it's how wide is the gap. DelVal has a 74 point SOS advantage and 1 more RRO W than Mount. Ithaca has a 32 point SOS advantage over NCC, but NCC has 1 more W against RRO and was ranked #1 in their region.

If I had to guess, I'd say SOS and RRO were a push, but NCC was Region 5 #1 and they never got to the tie breaker of previous seasons post-season performance. If they did, that would favor NCC as well with a run to the Stagg.

It's obviously nice to play at home, but there can be an advantage to going on the road. The team gets to travel/fly together, there are less distractions, etc. Bethel hosting UMHB would be great, but I'm excited to take a trip down to Belton and see that stadium in person. And warm weather might help mitigate injuries (though I'm sure UMHB's physicality will be a handful). Naperville is a very cool downtown area, definitely worth the trip if you're considering it.

Ice is excited you are making the trip hazzz! Ice Bear says safe travels and wishing you a wonderful time (and hopefully a wonderful outcome).

Great tailgate.  Aside from the regulars, it was nice to share a few brews with Wartknight and his son, Logan Hansen, and even Pat Coleman.

Same! It was worth getting there early, and also missing the first quarter of the east coast games, to come hang out with you folks and Sagatag Sam.

Ice Bear picks some leftover seal meat from his teeth with a sharped caribou bone and says, “Sam you were always someone in Ice Bears book.” Ice sighs and says this realizing his MIAC book is only a year old…but it still means something  ;D

Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 27, 2022, 09:13:35 pm »
Ice Bear just watched the game and has a couple of thoughts:
-Linfield is really good and IIBHO was a big play or two away from really shooting it out with the Royals
-Valadez and McNabb are really good players and fun to watch, Ice looks forward to seeing more from them next year
-Ice once again loved the Wildcat game presentation and commentators
-Bethel’s tight mistake free football was a big difference maker in this game
-the Royals ran the ball no matter what, no matter what
-Geebli is a ****ing monster whose low center of gravity and strength sucked lots of life out of the Wildcat D
-Rockin Roste was a field general and competed at an incredibly high level getting the ball to some excellent receivers
-this football game was played at a very high level by both teams and IIBHO made all of D3

Ice Bear…last post for the night (Ice says **** he posts this much after not even being able to watch any of the games) as he’s officially OOC at this point. Ice just wants to congratulate SJU on yet another hell of a season. Ice says the Johnnies are one hell of a ****ing program. Ice sends all kinds of respect their way. Ice says with that being said he’ll be sure to club a couple seals to garner some mojo for Bethel’s hopeful revenge against the Johnnies next season for the late season ass kicking they gave the Royals.

Region 5 football (Central-ish) / Re: FB: American Rivers Conference
« on: November 26, 2022, 08:21:51 pm »
Ice Bear says holy **** Wartburg is ****ing good!! Ice sends his sincere congrats on their impressive victory over a very good SJU team and program. Ice Bear says defeating the Johnnies up there is no ****ing joke. Ice wishes you luck next week and he hopes everyone is healthy and ready to go for the Knights kicking ass in their knickers! Ice felt this W all the way up in the ****ing arctic! Congrats!

Ice Bear says while on a bus returning upstate from NYC and pulling his tiny polar bear tail out of his ass, great ****ing W today Bethel! Ice admittedly couldn’t watch a second of it (although his ass followed it while hanging in Hell’s Kitchen eating some macaroni) and hopes to catch a replay. Ice says that’s a huge W over a very storied top notch program in Linfield. Ice says to win up there in the playoffs is something very few D3 schools could do, very few. Ice sends his congrats and makes the claim that come hell or melting polar ice caps, he’ll be tuned in next week as his polar balls hopefully grow back throughout the week. 

Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 26, 2022, 06:32:05 pm »
Ice wants to send his congratulations to the Linfield Wildcats in what was yet another incredible season. Ice says maybe they were a bit overrated this season but overall, as a D3 football program, year in and year out, they are incredible. Ice aspires his beloved Dutchmen to reach the consistency and level of play that Linfield puts on the field year in and year out. Ice says also kiddos to some passionate and knowledgeable fans who Ice has also come to respect this season. Ice knows Linfield will be back, they always are.

Ice has a question: since he was in NYC today with his ****ing stub of a Polar Bear tale between his legs and missed the game, is a replay of the game available through the Linfield College website?

Region 2 football (New York and Pennsylvania-ish) / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: November 26, 2022, 06:27:05 pm »
Ice Bear says congrats to the Bombers on a big W today over a tough Springfield Pride team filled with athletes and a tough N/S triple option attack. Ice believes this Pride team came together and reached their peak this week. Ice expected IC to win by more but considering the way this Pride team has improved and really come into their own this was a tough well earned W. Ice says most really good teams don’t always play mistake free football and that was true for both sides today. Ice says the better team won and is moving on. Congrats to Ice’s second favorite out of conference team in Springfield on an incredible season and congrats to the Bombers on continuing their journey on what has been an amazing season that continues to make the LL faithful so incredibly proud!

Region 6 football (Midwest and West-ish) / Re: FB: Northwest Conference
« on: November 25, 2022, 06:56:38 pm »
Ice Bear is thinking tomorrow will be a great matchup between the Royals and Wildcats. Ice hopes for an injury free game for both sides. Ice says get ready fellas this may be one of the greats!

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