FB: Liberty League

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hazzben

Quote from: Bartman on November 28, 2022, 09:03:59 AM
If Delaware Valley gets a home game against Mt.Union, why doesn't Ithaca get a home game against NCC? All teams are undefeated and the Eastern teams have higher SOS, but evidently that is not the only factor.

It's a fair question. When Pat had the NatCom Chair on the podcast to discuss the methodology, prior to selection Sunday, I'm pretty sure I remember him saying the SOS had some nuance. I.e. it's not just is one team higher than another in SOS, it's how wide is the gap. DelVal has a 74 point SOS advantage and 1 more RRO W than Mount. Ithaca has a 32 point SOS advantage over NCC, but NCC has 1 more W against RRO and was ranked #1 in their region.

If I had to guess, I'd say SOS and RRO were a push, but NCC was Region 5 #1 and they never got to the tie breaker of previous seasons post-season performance. If they did, that would favor NCC as well with a run to the Stagg.

It's obviously nice to play at home, but there can be an advantage to going on the road. The team gets to travel/fly together, there are less distractions, etc. Bethel hosting UMHB would be great, but I'm excited to take a trip down to Belton and see that stadium in person. And warm weather might help mitigate injuries (though I'm sure UMHB's physicality will be a handful). Naperville is a very cool downtown area, definitely worth the trip if you're considering it.

Ice Bear

Quote from: hazzben on November 28, 2022, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 28, 2022, 09:03:59 AM
If Delaware Valley gets a home game against Mt.Union, why doesn't Ithaca get a home game against NCC? All teams are undefeated and the Eastern teams have higher SOS, but evidently that is not the only factor.

It's a fair question. When Pat had the NatCom Chair on the podcast to discuss the methodology, prior to selection Sunday, I'm pretty sure I remember him saying the SOS had some nuance. I.e. it's not just is one team higher than another in SOS, it's how wide is the gap. DelVal has a 74 point SOS advantage and 1 more RRO W than Mount. Ithaca has a 32 point SOS advantage over NCC, but NCC has 1 more W against RRO and was ranked #1 in their region.

If I had to guess, I'd say SOS and RRO were a push, but NCC was Region 5 #1 and they never got to the tie breaker of previous seasons post-season performance. If they did, that would favor NCC as well with a run to the Stagg.

It's obviously nice to play at home, but there can be an advantage to going on the road. The team gets to travel/fly together, there are less distractions, etc. Bethel hosting UMHB would be great, but I'm excited to take a trip down to Belton and see that stadium in person. And warm weather might help mitigate injuries (though I'm sure UMHB's physicality will be a handful). Naperville is a very cool downtown area, definitely worth the trip if you're considering it.

Ice is excited you are making the trip hazzz! Ice Bear says safe travels and wishing you a wonderful time (and hopefully a wonderful outcome).
A long time fan of DIII Football!

lmitzel

Quote from: hazzben on November 28, 2022, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 28, 2022, 09:03:59 AM
If Delaware Valley gets a home game against Mt.Union, why doesn't Ithaca get a home game against NCC? All teams are undefeated and the Eastern teams have higher SOS, but evidently that is not the only factor.

It's a fair question. When Pat had the NatCom Chair on the podcast to discuss the methodology, prior to selection Sunday, I'm pretty sure I remember him saying the SOS had some nuance. I.e. it's not just is one team higher than another in SOS, it's how wide is the gap. DelVal has a 74 point SOS advantage and 1 more RRO W than Mount. Ithaca has a 32 point SOS advantage over NCC, but NCC has 1 more W against RRO and was ranked #1 in their region.

If I had to guess, I'd say SOS and RRO were a push, but NCC was Region 5 #1 and they never got to the tie breaker of previous seasons post-season performance. If they did, that would favor NCC as well with a run to the Stagg.

Mostly this. I think the other factor to consider is that given Carnegie Mellon (ranked 2nd in Region 2) got shipped to Naperville, the team below them (Ithaca) was also going to get shipped to Naperville.

Quote from: hazzben on November 28, 2022, 10:35:08 AM
Naperville is a very cool downtown area, definitely worth the trip if you're considering it.

Can confirm. :) Lots of restaurants and bars all a short walk from the stadium. There's lots of tailgating pregame and likely postgame too.
Official D-III Championship BeltTM Cartographer
2022 CCIW Football Pick 'Em Co-Champion
#THREEEEEEEEE

Bartman

Quote from: hazzben on November 28, 2022, 10:35:08 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 28, 2022, 09:03:59 AM
If Delaware Valley gets a home game against Mt.Union, why doesn't Ithaca get a home game against NCC? All teams are undefeated and the Eastern teams have higher SOS, but evidently that is not the only factor.

It's a fair question. When Pat had the NatCom Chair on the podcast to discuss the methodology, prior to selection Sunday, I'm pretty sure I remember him saying the SOS had some nuance. I.e. it's not just is one team higher than another in SOS, it's how wide is the gap. DelVal has a 74 point SOS advantage and 1 more RRO W than Mount. Ithaca has a 32 point SOS advantage over NCC, but NCC has 1 more W against RRO and was ranked #1 in their region.

If I had to guess, I'd say SOS and RRO were a push, but NCC was Region 5 #1 and they never got to the tie breaker of previous seasons post-season performance. If they did, that would favor NCC as well with a run to the Stagg.

It's obviously nice to play at home, but there can be an advantage to going on the road. The team gets to travel/fly together, there are less distractions, etc. Bethel hosting UMHB would be great, but I'm excited to take a trip down to Belton and see that stadium in person. And warm weather might help mitigate injuries (though I'm sure UMHB's physicality will be a handful). Naperville is a very cool downtown area, definitely worth the trip if you're considering it.
Hazz,
    Thanks for the reply, now that I look at it, I'm sure your point that NCC was #1 in their region and Ithaca was #3 was a tiebreaker. I would recommend a trip to Naperville as well for the Bomber faithful. Good luck to Bethel in Belton.
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
Joe Namath

hazzben

Quote from: Bartman on November 28, 2022, 11:00:10 AM
Good luck to Bethel in Belton.

Likewise to Ithaca. Here's to a Bethel flight out to Butterfield Stadium on Dec 10...We'll both have our work cut out for us to pull it off!

Bartman

Quote from: hazzben on November 28, 2022, 11:10:35 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 28, 2022, 11:00:10 AM
Good luck to Bethel in Belton.

Likewise to Ithaca. Here's to a Bethel flight out to Butterfield Stadium on Dec 10...We'll both have our work cut out for us to pull it off!
Talk about shaking up D3 Football .... that would be awesome.
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
Joe Namath

IC798891

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 26, 2022, 02:35:21 PM

Not a pretty game and if Springfield didn't fumble all those times it is probably a different outcome.  And only one of those fumbles was your typical option style fumble. 

.

I think Ithaca got some breaks in that regard. But I think Springfield got their share too. Wingfield missed a wide open Leonard-Osborne who got behind the defense for a TD right before the end of the first half, and the Bombers missed a short FG in the second half. Largely, I think that stuff came out in the wash.

This is such a gutsy IC team, and they get better as the game goes on.  They're able — once again — to take advantage of the opponent putting the ball on the ground, and get some big plays from the offense. They're incredibly creative in getting their playmakers the ball in space, particularly Leonard-Osborne and Anderson, and every week they seem to have a new offensive wrinkle. Williams has emerged as a great lead back, as well.

It's house money at this point. Beating NCC would be a huge upset, but this has been an amazing season. 12-0 for the first time since 1986. Winning Cortaca in front of 40,000 (and on TV) at Yankee Stadium. A pair of home playoff wins to impress recruits. Heck of a run

Ice Bear

Quote from: IC798891 on November 28, 2022, 11:56:24 AM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 26, 2022, 02:35:21 PM

Not a pretty game and if Springfield didn't fumble all those times it is probably a different outcome.  And only one of those fumbles was your typical option style fumble. 

.

I think Ithaca got some breaks in that regard. But I think Springfield got their share too. Wingfield missed a wide open Leonard-Osborne who got behind the defense for a TD right before the end of the first half, and the Bombers missed a short FG in the second half. Largely, I think that stuff came out in the wash.

This is such a gutsy IC team, and they get better as the game goes on.  They're able — once again — to take advantage of the opponent putting the ball on the ground, and get some big plays from the offense. They're incredibly creative in getting their playmakers the ball in space, particularly Leonard-Osborne and Anderson, and every week they seem to have a new offensive wrinkle. Williams has emerged as a great lead back, as well.

It's house money at this point. Beating NCC would be a huge upset, but this has been an amazing season. 12-0 for the first time since 1986. Winning Cortaca in front of 40,000 (and on TV) at Yankee Stadium. A pair of home playoff wins to impress recruits. Heck of a run

Ice Bear completely agrees IC. Ice says this is definitely cup runneth over type ****! Ice couldn't be happier for and more proud of IC!
A long time fan of DIII Football!

Jonny Utah

Quote from: Bartman on November 26, 2022, 08:48:21 PM
Congrats to Ithaca on a well played game against a very tough Springfield squad. Next week will be very interesting as Carnegie Mellon showed how to approach NCC to stretch the game and give them a chance against one the top teams in D3 . I'm sure the TOP analysis by JU will uncover some analytics for the next game ;)

Ok here we go:

SC came into the game first in the country in TOP, with 35:05, while Ithaca was first in the country in 4th down conversions with an 81% conversion rate.  These two statistics would collide with one another in this game.  Ithaca went 3/4 on 4th down while also dominating the TOP 35:11 to 24:49.  I gotta think that by Ithaca converting three 4th downs, this gives basically Ithaca at least 5 minutes more in TOP.  Ithaca also had 43 rushes to Springfield's 45, yet the first down count was only 20-17 in favor of Ithaca.

Was this part of Ithaca's strategy going into the game? 

One thing I noticed is that Ithaca (playing a 4 down front) would bring both middle linebackers right up to the line in what appeared to be a timed run blitz.  Both middle backers appeared to be right in the A gaps.  They were very disciplined with this and appeared to only go offsides once.  On the positive side, they had nine tackles for loss.  Springfield was FIRST in the country for tackles for loss with 2.55 average a game.  For perspective, the worst TFL allowed teams in the country average 10.3, 10.6 and Millikin averaged 12. 

I then was a little puzzled with another one of Springfield's stats.  They were 2nd in the country in turnovers lost?  2nd!?  An option team with a turnover rate that good had me thinking.  Take a quick look at Salisbury and they are 2nd to last in the country in that category with 22 fumbles lost.  Why does this happen?  Is it because SC doesn't pitch it?  Well looking at the IC game it appeared that SC did not pitch it.  Their fullbacks had 28 carries, the QBs had 16 carries and the halfbacks had 4 carries (one for loss).  The week before SC halfbacks had 19 carries, while the fullbacks had 38 and the QB had 5.  Go to the SC/Union game and the fullbacks had 24 carries, the QB had 18, and the halfbacks 16. 

Now its clear that SC was much more balanced versus Union and Endicott, although Union's defense did a better job than Ithaca did (although losing the TOP battle 35 to 25).  Did Ithaca simply cover the pitch man better?  SC's fullbacks still seemed to get a ton of big runs.

This brings us back to TOP and I think is simply comes down to SC fumbling and Ithaca's 4th down conversion rate.  SC kept the ball all year as seen in their turnover ranking.  In this game though they turned it over 4 times.  They also allowed IC to convert three 4th downs, and this would impact IC's 3rd down conversion rate as well (which was not great at 4/14). 


Bartman

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 29, 2022, 09:27:19 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 26, 2022, 08:48:21 PM
Congrats to Ithaca on a well played game against a very tough Springfield squad. Next week will be very interesting as Carnegie Mellon showed how to approach NCC to stretch the game and give them a chance against one the top teams in D3 . I'm sure the TOP analysis by JU will uncover some analytics for the next game ;)

Ok here we go:

SC came into the game first in the country in TOP, with 35:05, while Ithaca was first in the country in 4th down conversions with an 81% conversion rate.  These two statistics would collide with one another in this game.  Ithaca went 3/4 on 4th down while also dominating the TOP 35:11 to 24:49.  I gotta think that by Ithaca converting three 4th downs, this gives basically Ithaca at least 5 minutes more in TOP.  Ithaca also had 43 rushes to Springfield's 45, yet the first down count was only 20-17 in favor of Ithaca.

Was this part of Ithaca's strategy going into the game? 

One thing I noticed is that Ithaca (playing a 4 down front) would bring both middle linebackers right up to the line in what appeared to be a timed run blitz.  Both middle backers appeared to be right in the A gaps.  They were very disciplined with this and appeared to only go offsides once.  On the positive side, they had nine tackles for loss.  Springfield was FIRST in the country for tackles for loss with 2.55 average a game.  For perspective, the worst TFL allowed teams in the country average 10.3, 10.6 and Millikin averaged 12. 

I then was a little puzzled with another one of Springfield's stats.  They were 2nd in the country in turnovers lost?  2nd!?  An option team with a turnover rate that good had me thinking.  Take a quick look at Salisbury and they are 2nd to last in the country in that category with 22 fumbles lost.  Why does this happen?  Is it because SC doesn't pitch it?  Well looking at the IC game it appeared that SC did not pitch it.  Their fullbacks had 28 carries, the QBs had 16 carries and the halfbacks had 4 carries (one for loss).  The week before SC halfbacks had 19 carries, while the fullbacks had 38 and the QB had 5.  Go to the SC/Union game and the fullbacks had 24 carries, the QB had 18, and the halfbacks 16. 

Now its clear that SC was much more balanced versus Union and Endicott, although Union's defense did a better job than Ithaca did (although losing the TOP battle 35 to 25).  Did Ithaca simply cover the pitch man better?  SC's fullbacks still seemed to get a ton of big runs.

This brings us back to TOP and I think is simply comes down to SC fumbling and Ithaca's 4th down conversion rate.  SC kept the ball all year as seen in their turnover ranking.  In this game though they turned it over 4 times.  They also allowed IC to convert three 4th downs, and this would impact IC's 3rd down conversion rate as well (which was not great at 4/14).
JU,
    +k on the analysis . I didn't watch the entire game, but were the turnovers more exchange fumbles than caused fumbles by the IC defense? Moving to this week, NCC is on a different level, but the CW defense really showed up in the first half, and certainly did not get rolled. Do you think the IC defense can perform at the CW level? Wingfield is a wild card and the NCC defense is certainly preparing for his mobility and passing skills. I believe the Bombers need to get off to a fast start in order to have a chance against NCC and Wingfield having the game of his life is key. This will be a great week for measuring the progress of the East(if any)  with Ithaca and Delaware Valley playing 2 of the Platinum level programs.
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
Joe Namath

Ice Bear

Quote from: Bartman on November 29, 2022, 10:16:40 AM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 29, 2022, 09:27:19 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 26, 2022, 08:48:21 PM
Congrats to Ithaca on a well played game against a very tough Springfield squad. Next week will be very interesting as Carnegie Mellon showed how to approach NCC to stretch the game and give them a chance against one the top teams in D3 . I'm sure the TOP analysis by JU will uncover some analytics for the next game ;)

Ok here we go:

SC came into the game first in the country in TOP, with 35:05, while Ithaca was first in the country in 4th down conversions with an 81% conversion rate.  These two statistics would collide with one another in this game.  Ithaca went 3/4 on 4th down while also dominating the TOP 35:11 to 24:49.  I gotta think that by Ithaca converting three 4th downs, this gives basically Ithaca at least 5 minutes more in TOP.  Ithaca also had 43 rushes to Springfield's 45, yet the first down count was only 20-17 in favor of Ithaca.

Was this part of Ithaca's strategy going into the game? 

One thing I noticed is that Ithaca (playing a 4 down front) would bring both middle linebackers right up to the line in what appeared to be a timed run blitz.  Both middle backers appeared to be right in the A gaps.  They were very disciplined with this and appeared to only go offsides once.  On the positive side, they had nine tackles for loss.  Springfield was FIRST in the country for tackles for loss with 2.55 average a game.  For perspective, the worst TFL allowed teams in the country average 10.3, 10.6 and Millikin averaged 12. 

I then was a little puzzled with another one of Springfield's stats.  They were 2nd in the country in turnovers lost?  2nd!?  An option team with a turnover rate that good had me thinking.  Take a quick look at Salisbury and they are 2nd to last in the country in that category with 22 fumbles lost.  Why does this happen?  Is it because SC doesn't pitch it?  Well looking at the IC game it appeared that SC did not pitch it.  Their fullbacks had 28 carries, the QBs had 16 carries and the halfbacks had 4 carries (one for loss).  The week before SC halfbacks had 19 carries, while the fullbacks had 38 and the QB had 5.  Go to the SC/Union game and the fullbacks had 24 carries, the QB had 18, and the halfbacks 16. 

Now its clear that SC was much more balanced versus Union and Endicott, although Union's defense did a better job than Ithaca did (although losing the TOP battle 35 to 25).  Did Ithaca simply cover the pitch man better?  SC's fullbacks still seemed to get a ton of big runs.

This brings us back to TOP and I think is simply comes down to SC fumbling and Ithaca's 4th down conversion rate.  SC kept the ball all year as seen in their turnover ranking.  In this game though they turned it over 4 times.  They also allowed IC to convert three 4th downs, and this would impact IC's 3rd down conversion rate as well (which was not great at 4/14).
JU,
    +k on the analysis . I didn't watch the entire game, but were the turnovers more exchange fumbles than caused fumbles by the IC defense? Moving to this week, NCC is on a different level, but the CW defense really showed up in the first half, and certainly did not get rolled. Do you think the IC defense can perform at the CW level? Wingfield is a wild card and the NCC defense is certainly preparing for his mobility and passing skills. I believe the Bombers need to get off to a fast start in order to have a chance against NCC and Wingfield having the game of his life is key. This will be a great week for measuring the progress of the East(if any)  with Ithaca and Delaware Valley playing 2 of the Platinum level programs.

Ice Bear says this is right on Bartman (Ice says as ****ing usual you are on point). Ice thinks this weekend will be a great barometer for our region and Eastern part of the country in comparison with the best out there. Ice says, oh by the way, absolutely no pressure.

Ice says in all seriousness both IC and Del Val have had just stellar seasons and nothing, not even a ****ing homogenizing from the likes of NCC and UMU can take that away...Ice says with that said it would be or-****ing-gasmic to see two very competitive games. Ice thinks IC has the better chance to keep it close as they are just so impressive across the board.
A long time fan of DIII Football!

Jonny Utah

Quote from: Bartman on November 29, 2022, 10:16:40 AM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 29, 2022, 09:27:19 AM
Quote from: Bartman on November 26, 2022, 08:48:21 PM
Congrats to Ithaca on a well played game against a very tough Springfield squad. Next week will be very interesting as Carnegie Mellon showed how to approach NCC to stretch the game and give them a chance against one the top teams in D3 . I'm sure the TOP analysis by JU will uncover some analytics for the next game ;)

Ok here we go:

SC came into the game first in the country in TOP, with 35:05, while Ithaca was first in the country in 4th down conversions with an 81% conversion rate.  These two statistics would collide with one another in this game.  Ithaca went 3/4 on 4th down while also dominating the TOP 35:11 to 24:49.  I gotta think that by Ithaca converting three 4th downs, this gives basically Ithaca at least 5 minutes more in TOP.  Ithaca also had 43 rushes to Springfield's 45, yet the first down count was only 20-17 in favor of Ithaca.

Was this part of Ithaca's strategy going into the game? 

One thing I noticed is that Ithaca (playing a 4 down front) would bring both middle linebackers right up to the line in what appeared to be a timed run blitz.  Both middle backers appeared to be right in the A gaps.  They were very disciplined with this and appeared to only go offsides once.  On the positive side, they had nine tackles for loss.  Springfield was FIRST in the country for tackles for loss with 2.55 average a game.  For perspective, the worst TFL allowed teams in the country average 10.3, 10.6 and Millikin averaged 12. 

I then was a little puzzled with another one of Springfield's stats.  They were 2nd in the country in turnovers lost?  2nd!?  An option team with a turnover rate that good had me thinking.  Take a quick look at Salisbury and they are 2nd to last in the country in that category with 22 fumbles lost.  Why does this happen?  Is it because SC doesn't pitch it?  Well looking at the IC game it appeared that SC did not pitch it.  Their fullbacks had 28 carries, the QBs had 16 carries and the halfbacks had 4 carries (one for loss).  The week before SC halfbacks had 19 carries, while the fullbacks had 38 and the QB had 5.  Go to the SC/Union game and the fullbacks had 24 carries, the QB had 18, and the halfbacks 16. 

Now its clear that SC was much more balanced versus Union and Endicott, although Union's defense did a better job than Ithaca did (although losing the TOP battle 35 to 25).  Did Ithaca simply cover the pitch man better?  SC's fullbacks still seemed to get a ton of big runs.

This brings us back to TOP and I think is simply comes down to SC fumbling and Ithaca's 4th down conversion rate.  SC kept the ball all year as seen in their turnover ranking.  In this game though they turned it over 4 times.  They also allowed IC to convert three 4th downs, and this would impact IC's 3rd down conversion rate as well (which was not great at 4/14).
JU,
    +k on the analysis . I didn't watch the entire game, but were the turnovers more exchange fumbles than caused fumbles by the IC defense? Moving to this week, NCC is on a different level, but the CW defense really showed up in the first half, and certainly did not get rolled. Do you think the IC defense can perform at the CW level? Wingfield is a wild card and the NCC defense is certainly preparing for his mobility and passing skills. I believe the Bombers need to get off to a fast start in order to have a chance against NCC and Wingfield having the game of his life is key. This will be a great week for measuring the progress of the East(if any)  with Ithaca and Delaware Valley playing 2 of the Platinum level programs.

One of the fumbles appeared to be the QB/FB mesh, the other ones the defense stripped the QB and Fullback it looked like.  (so 1 exchange, two caused).  For NCC, Ithaca just has to play mistake free football.  Isn't that always the plan?  Make less mistakes than your opponent? 

I do think Ithaca will need to run the ball.  For once their oline seems to have the size to compete against the big boys with regular zone read.  They will need to get some first downs (AND TOP) if they want to hang.  SC is a tough gauge because of their option but Ithaca's defense has been very good in almost every game this year.  NCC's RB is a lot like SC's rbs (basically fullbacks as running backs) so stopping Greenfield will be key. 

Caz Bombers


Captainred81

I think IC has a chance, but they need to execute.  CM followed their game plan, except for a few let downs that gave up big plays.  NCC loves it between the tackles.  If IC's linebackers are making first contact at 4-5 yards down field, it's gonna be a long day.  If you can hold NCC to 2 and 8 or 3 and 6, this might force them to throw a bit more.  They have athletes, but Luke Lehnen is a runner, not a passer.  he makes poor decisions on the fly and will try to run at any chance.  Stuff the middle, spy the QB, man up with deep safety.  Offensively, yards are key.  Move the ball methodically, get first downs.  Change snap counts and formations. 

I think IC can do it... It would be cool to see anyway. 

Also, all of that is easier said than done. 
Any W.I.N is a B.F.D