West Regional Rankings

[George Thompson]

I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....

Monrovia Cat,  that is right.   Regional Rankings are tough enough to estimate.    The NCAA playoff schedule is impossible to predict.

George

[George Thompson]

I could be wrong...but I think George may have been attempting to provide a stab at the Regional Rankings(?)--not a playoff pod (despite his mention of the word playoff)....

Well, then it's two slots short of being a regional ranking...and has St. Scholastica ranked 

Ha--I didn't contend that George had any idea what he was talking about

Of course I don't know.    Speculating rankings and playoffs is just fun.   And seeing other, wiser opinons is always good.

GT

[SJSUPhil]

..and has St. Scholastica ranked 

Well they are undeafeated. But I have other teams just outside my West top ten (like PLU, Pacific, Redlands, Central, UWSP, UWO) that I'm sure would just roll the Saints.  Same holds for the two one-loss teams from the MWC - I just couldn't find room for them.

You're right about Redlands, the Bulldogs would roll all over the Saints.

[Ralph Turner]

I am restarting this old board as the Region 6 Regionally Ranked board.

[Ralph Turner]

For starters, this week's Top 25 has:

2) UMHB ASC
3) UWW WIAC
5) SJU MIAC
7) Linfield NWC
8) HSU ASC
11) UWL WIAC
16) Bethel MIAC
18) UWO WIAC

RV28) HPU ASC
RV29) Whitworth NWC
RV31) Chapman SCIAC
Unranked) Greenville UMAC

We can go down to #18 in the Poll as a proxy for the relative strengths of these teams. Pool A bids are in bold, if each runs the table.

(Please remember that the Top 25 is not a criterion for the committee. But, look how strong these teams are. With most schools playing 8 and 9 conference games, there are very few chances to get a regionally ranked opponent outside your conference.)

(Rank) (Team) (1st place votes) (Record) (Votes)( Ranking from the Previous Week) (Region)
1 North Central (Ill.) (17) 5-0 612 1 Region 5
2 Mary Hardin-Baylor (7) 5-0 592 2 Region 6
3 UW-Whitewater 5-0 581 3 Region 6
4 Mount Union (1) 5-0 562 4 Region 4
5 St. John's 5-0 502 6 Region 6
6 Wheaton (Ill.) 4-1 497 5 Region 5  Pool C bid  
7 Linfield 4-0 466 7 Region 6
8 Hardin-Simmons 4-1 418 8 Region 6  Pool C bid
9 Delaware Valley 5-0 402 10 Region 1
10 Central 6-0 358 11 Region 5
11 UW-La Crosse 4-1 327 20 Region 6 Pool C bid  
12 Washington and Jefferson 6-0 321 12 Region 3
13 Salisbury 3-1 310 13 Region 2
14 Johns Hopkins 5-0 300 15 Region 2
15 Union 6-0 294 14 Region 2
16 Bethel 4-1 273 16  Region 6 Pool C bid
17 Ithaca 5-0 246 17 Region 2 Pool C
18 UW-Oshkosh Region 6 Pool C bid

[OzJohnnie]

Thanks, Ralph, I had been hoping to see analysis like this but didn't know the system well enough to do it myself.  Four pool C bids from Region 6?  That would be interesting to see.

A question that is nagging me is getting into the regional rankings.  Isn't it something like 10 teams get listed per region, including autobids?  And that only the top ranked remaining team gets considered in isolation against the top from other regions?  So Region 6 would need to run the table on the RR criteria (which includes record against other RR opponents, which is not only hard to get but hard to have look good when your RR opponent is almost certainly a conference champion and someone you lost to).  It's that sort of dynamic that makes me think Region 6 will get only one or possibly two pool C bids.

Dunno.  I'll guess we'll see if that dynamic is in play or not when you do the end of year selection preview.  But thanks for this.  Much appreciated.

[OzJohnnie]

For example, the MIAC.  If SJU and BU win out and then BU lose again to the Johnnies in the conference championship, I don't think BU has a good chance at a pool C with two losses when competing against one loss considerations in all the other regions.  On the flip side, if (God forbid) SJU loses to BU in the conference championship then SJU is probably the first pool C selection or maybe the second after the WIAC runner up (those two would be competing for 1st and 2cd pool C selection in that scenario, I reckon).  HSU wins out and there are three pool C selections from region six in that second scenario.  Otherwise I see one or at best two.

We'll see come end of the year.

EDIT: It would be a perverse unintended consequence of the MIAC championship format if it ends up virtually guaranteeing two post-season positions on a split and virtually guaranteeing only one with an undefeated team.  I suspect it may make the odds of two MIAC teams in the post-season significantly less than they were before.  But it improves the playability of the MIAC for the bottom teams.  So, tradeoffs.

[WW]

Both UWL and UWO have yet to play UWW, and I'm guessing each will have two losses once they do. While that certainly doesn't disqualify them from pool C consideration, it might give Bethel a stronger case if they play out to form, with another quality loss to the Johnnies. And you might have to let a couple others at least back into the pool C conversation (Wartburg, Gustavus Adolphus) out of 5 and 6.

[Pat Coleman]

UW-L's loss is to the current No. 6-ranked team in D-II.

[colinsteinke]

Thanks, Ralph, I had been hoping to see analysis like this but didn't know the system well enough to do it myself.  Four pool C bids from Region 6?  That would be interesting to see.

A question that is nagging me is getting into the regional rankings.  Isn't it something like 10 teams get listed per region, including autobids?  And that only the top ranked remaining team gets considered in isolation against the top from other regions?  So Region 6 would need to run the table on the RR criteria (which includes record against other RR opponents, which is not only hard to get but hard to have look good when your RR opponent is almost certainly a conference champion and someone you lost to).  It's that sort of dynamic that makes me think Region 6 will get only one or possibly two pool C bids.

Dunno.  I'll guess we'll see if that dynamic is in play or not when you do the end of year selection preview.  But thanks for this.  Much appreciated.

A lot of this is going to play itself out in conference play. UWO will likely have two losses. UWL likely will as well. While they're going to be "quality" losses, I think UWLs resume will be better with beating UWO and a loss to a highly ranked D2 team, but in the past it's been very difficult to get in with two losses. This might be the year that's different, but UWO would have two in region losses, and UWL only one. Provided everything shakes out like I assume it will.

Remember, the RR don't take anything from the D3FB top 25, so while it's an okay barometer, it's not the be all end all when making these guesses.

[hazzben]

Thanks, Ralph, I had been hoping to see analysis like this but didn't know the system well enough to do it myself.  Four pool C bids from Region 6?  That would be interesting to see.

A question that is nagging me is getting into the regional rankings.  Isn't it something like 10 teams get listed per region, including autobids?  And that only the top ranked remaining team gets considered in isolation against the top from other regions?  So Region 6 would need to run the table on the RR criteria (which includes record against other RR opponents, which is not only hard to get but hard to have look good when your RR opponent is almost certainly a conference champion and someone you lost to).  It's that sort of dynamic that makes me think Region 6 will get only one or possibly two pool C bids.

Dunno.  I'll guess we'll see if that dynamic is in play or not when you do the end of year selection preview.  But thanks for this.  Much appreciated.

A lot of this is going to play itself out in conference play. UWO will likely have two losses. UWL likely will as well. While they're going to be "quality" losses, I think UWLs resume will be better with beating UWO and a loss to a highly ranked D2 team, but in the past it's been very difficult to get in with two losses. This might be the year that's different, but UWO would have two in region losses, and UWL only one. Provided everything shakes out like I assume it will.

I don't think a second loss to a top 10 D2 team will be the Pool C kiss of death.

It will be interesting to see who gets ranked and who just misses the cut, region to region. Does a two loss GAC have any shot at getting ranked in Region 6 (I doubt it), compared to a potential two loss Wartburg (who GAC beat) in region 5?

This will be one of the more fascinating runs up to selection, and selection Sunday's we've had in quite some time. Given all we don't know about how the new structure will play out.

[emma17]

If Bethel loses twice to SJU, I’d consider them a one loss team.

[WW]

If Bethel loses twice to SJU, I’d consider them a one loss team.

I think NWC is likely to produce a one-loss runner-up. SCIAC could as well. And in Region 5, MWC's runner-up is likely to be 9-1. Not that they'd have the SOS or OOC RRO to lean on or just about any other transitive-properties argument... but 9-1 is 9-1.

In any case, somebody's (and likely a few somebodies) not gonna like what they hear on Nov 14.

[hazzben]

If Bethel loses twice to SJU, I’d consider them a one loss team.

I think NWC is likely to produce a one-loss runner-up. SCIAC could as well. And in Region 5, MWC's runner-up is likely to be 9-1. Not that they'd have the SOS or OOC RRO to lean on or just about any other transitive-properties argument... but 9-1 is 9-1.

In any case, somebody's (and likely a few somebodies) not gonna like what they hear on Nov 14.

Honestly, the biggest thing working against Bethel in a second loss to SJU, is that the final loss would come at home. The challenge will be asking two questions. Do we think any of the other runners-up would/could have beaten SJU? And how close are those losses to their Pool A conf champs?

9-1 and you got blown out, is different than 9-1 and you lost in a competitive game. Same for Bethel, if you have two losses to SJU (hoping it's only 1 obviously), better have the second be as respectable and close as the first was.

Bottom line, it's really early. We have no idea at this point how many 1 loss teams will be on the table and if a two loss team will even get consideration. Time will tell.