Author Topic: Bracketology Projection  (Read 22898 times)

Offline MRMIKESMITH

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #255 on: September 19, 2022, 09:00:35 am »
Week 3 WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.
UMHB fanboy here, but I think there is a very real chance for HSU. It will come down to UMHB's defense. They are coming around, but you have inexperienced sophomores calling those defensive sets. You could be looking at a 2 loss UMHB trying to get an at large bid to play every game on the road.

I still think they both get in, they will just switch 1st round opponents.

Offline Cowboy2

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #256 on: September 20, 2022, 02:34:25 am »
Week 3 WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.

If Wheaton is on this, which team are they replacing from the 5 listed above?

Offline MRMIKESMITH

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #257 on: September 20, 2022, 06:47:41 am »
Week 3 WAY TOO EARLY Unofficial DIII Bracketology

Just a reminder, because teams are within 600 miles of each other. It was mentioned last year that they didn't really want to force that condition. Wanted players to have great experience.

At Large Selections:
Hardin-Simmons
UW-Whitewater
Union (NY)
Trine
Heidelberg

I could easily see a 9-1 Susquehanna as an at-large.

If Wheaton is on this, which team are they replacing from the 5 listed above?

Good catch (updated), it will be a tough one, but I think based on last year's precedent, if Wheaton plays NCC close, two losses to two Top 8/10 teams will look better than OAC's runner-up, considering the OAC did not perform as well this year compared to the MIAA. It will come down to how Region 4 Committee rank teams this year. Will there be 3 OAC or 2 OAC teams. Will Wheaton be higher than the MIAA & OAC Runner-ups at potential 1 loss. Does Region 2 put the CC runner-up above the LL runner-up. Will Region 3 place Hardin-Simmons as it's first runner-up
 or UMHB if they lose. With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.

Other Notable Potential Bubble Teams:

9-1 Susquehanna/Ursinus
9-1 George Fox
9-1 Stevenson
9-1 Rowan
9-1 Chicago
9-1 DePauw
9-1 Heidelberg
9-1 Bridgewater/Shenandoah

I'll do some WAY TOO EARLY Regional Projections this week or in the near future.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2022, 08:11:58 am by FANOFD3 »

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #258 on: September 20, 2022, 12:16:34 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons. 
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Offline IC798891

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #259 on: September 22, 2022, 10:33:24 am »
The only way IC and Union both make it is if Union is the Pool A, and thus ahead of IC in the bracket. (Barring some wacky 3/4 way tie scenario)

If they both make it, most likely, both of them beat Hobart and RPI. Which means, at best, those teams are 7-3 and 6-4. So not regionally ranked.

All three of Union's OOC opponents are already 1-2. Maybe Springfield gets RR at 8-2, but I highly doubt it

So Union would be 0-1 vs. RR opponents (the IC loss). That's not a great Pool C resume.

Ithaca, on the other hand, would have a win over Cortland, who would probably be 9-1 and regionally ranked. Also, Brockport is probably more likely to be regionally ranked than Springfield at 8-2, so there's a small chance IC has a second RR win there. (You can flip port and cort in this scenario if you'd like)

Offline MRMIKESMITH

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #260 on: September 22, 2022, 03:09:27 pm »
The only way IC and Union both make it is if Union is the Pool A, and thus ahead of IC in the bracket. (Barring some wacky 3/4 way tie scenario)

If they both make it, most likely, both of them beat Hobart and RPI. Which means, at best, those teams are 7-3 and 6-4. So not regionally ranked.

All three of Union's OOC opponents are already 1-2. Maybe Springfield gets RR at 8-2, but I highly doubt it

So Union would be 0-1 vs. RR opponents (the IC loss). That's not a great Pool C resume.

Ithaca, on the other hand, would have a win over Cortland, who would probably be 9-1 and regionally ranked. Also, Brockport is probably more likely to be regionally ranked than Springfield at 8-2, so there's a small chance IC has a second RR win there. (You can flip port and cort in this scenario if you'd like)

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

There were three 7 win teams that made it onto the regional rankings within R1 and R2

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #261 on: September 22, 2022, 03:53:37 pm »
The only way IC and Union both make it is if Union is the Pool A, and thus ahead of IC in the bracket. (Barring some wacky 3/4 way tie scenario)

If they both make it, most likely, both of them beat Hobart and RPI. Which means, at best, those teams are 7-3 and 6-4. So not regionally ranked.

All three of Union's OOC opponents are already 1-2. Maybe Springfield gets RR at 8-2, but I highly doubt it

So Union would be 0-1 vs. RR opponents (the IC loss). That's not a great Pool C resume.

Ithaca, on the other hand, would have a win over Cortland, who would probably be 9-1 and regionally ranked. Also, Brockport is probably more likely to be regionally ranked than Springfield at 8-2, so there's a small chance IC has a second RR win there. (You can flip port and cort in this scenario if you'd like)

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

There were three 7 win teams that made it onto the regional rankings within R1 and R2
I am pulling up the rankings thru games of 11/14/2021.

Offline D3fanboy

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #262 on: September 22, 2022, 04:25:46 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #263 on: September 22, 2022, 04:47:09 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

Maybe? Defiance is going to be a big drain on UMU's SOS, and I'm not sure the OAC is going to occupy as much space in the Region 4 rankings this year.  Mount Union is likely going to have a resume that could easily be trumped by a number of other undefeated teams (Trinity and St. John's stand out immediately- there may be others).
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Offline D3fanboy

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #264 on: September 22, 2022, 06:41:26 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that

Maybe? Defiance is going to be a big drain on UMU's SOS, and I'm not sure the OAC is going to occupy as much space in the Region 4 rankings this year.  Mount Union is likely going to have a resume that could easily be trumped by a number of other undefeated teams (Trinity and St. John's stand out immediately- there may be others).

you ain't lying.  Imagine trying to convince yourself that Defiance can win a game or two this season to help SOS.  Hopefully the MIAA beats up on each other, got to get Berg and JCU in the regional rankings at some point

Offline IC798891

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #265 on: September 23, 2022, 12:28:53 pm »

There were three 7 win teams that made it onto the regional rankings within R1 and R2

The R2 team was 7-2, not 7-3.


Offline Toby Taff

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #266 on: September 23, 2022, 02:56:58 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that
I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

Offline D3fanboy

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #267 on: September 23, 2022, 08:02:51 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that
I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias

Offline MonroviaCat

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #268 on: September 24, 2022, 06:10:21 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that
I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias
NCAA must have paid off ST John's to lose today so Mount can stay home. :)
Go Cats!

Offline MRMIKESMITH

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Re: Bracketology Projection
« Reply #269 on: September 24, 2022, 09:52:18 pm »
With all this, I'm curious which team gets Home field advantage between an undefeated Mount Union and NCC.


It required unprecedented and frankly inexplicable gymnastics by the national committee last year to plant that semifinal game in Alliance.  It never should have happened.  It would be an even bigger traveshamockery were it to happen again this year, if both teams have undefeated regular seasons.

Wouldn't an undefeated NCC and Mount likely be the 1 and 2 overall seeds due to the prior season results thing?  All of the other semifinalists have an L (perhaps more to come) and SJU lost in the 2nd round.  Probably way too early to worry about it, but where's the fun in that
I think an undefeated Mount Union, is probably behind an undefeated SJU on SOS and RRO. Not to say they couldn't be 1 or 2, but my guess is if chalk holds all the way through the playoffs UMU is on the road in the Semis

come on, you must be forgetting about the NCAA Mount Union bias
NCAA must have paid off ST John's to lose today so Mount can stay home. :)

As a fan of division III football, I'm still looking forward to the long overdue matchup between Linfield and Mount Union. The way this season is matching up. We may see some weird traveling occuring.