2016 HAVERFORD

Started by lastguyoffthebench, April 28, 2016, 09:47:16 AM

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lastguyoffthebench

2016 SCHEDULE
WNEC @ Brandeis
@ Brandeis
Alvernia @ Eastern
Vs Lycoming
@ Stevens Tech
Vs Hopkins
@ Stockton
@ McDaniel
@ WAC
Vs Gettysburg
Vs RUC
@ Dickinson
@ Scranton
@ Muhlenberg
@ F&M
Vs Ursinus
@ Swarthmore

2015 Combined record of 187-110-36:   0.615    
Using NCAA weighted formula for H/A:  0.664



Haverford was one of the top teams in the nation last season and if they did not run into Oneonta St, a title could have been possible.    For 2016 they only lose three starters, BUT those three just happened to be AA and Regional AA players;  Yarosh, B.Seitz, C. Seitz.    Yarosh (a legitimate POY candidate) and B. Seitz combined scored 25 and assisted 9 of the teams 56g and 42a.  C. Seitz was a big part of the defense...   

Assuming no transfers or academic ineligibility the team still returns:
M    Corkery    22-22   SR  1st team D3 AA, 1st team NSCAA Region, 1st team CC
F     Walcott    22-22   SR  Honorable mention CC (2014,2015)
D     Carr         22-16  SO
M    Nicholson  22-22   JR
D    Willigan    21-21   SR  2nd team CC
D    John         22-22  SO
D    Clark        18-17  SO
GK  Miller        22-22  SR  Honorable mention CC


In 2015, Haverford started out the season 2-3 with losses to Stevens, Wesleyan, and MSU... then won 16 straight. 
2016 might be deja vu with Brandeis, Lycoming, Stevens, Hopkins, and Stockton in the first 7 games....  How will this team respond with nearly half of scoring production gone and a leader in the back out.   The Fords should have some strong recruits coming in, but will that be enough to get them past the Elite teams.   


PROJECTION:  CC Regular Season Champ and Conference Champion
BEST CASE SCENARIO:   Final 4
WORST CASE SCENARIO:   Loss in second round of NCAA Tournament

The Centennial is a tough conference, the non-conf games are even stronger...  SOS should be incredibly high (top 3-5 projected in the nation, IMO).   What are your thoughts?  Is there anyway this team could miss out on the tournament?   

Mid-Atlantic Fan

An entire thread dedicated to Haverford...interesting  ;)

I see them racking up 13 wins, 3 losses and 1 tie. You can pick and choose who the losses and ties are too but I will go with losses to Brandeis, Lycoming, & F&M and a tie with Stevens Tech.

Best case scenario is making the title game and the worst case scenario is missing NCAA's all together. Centennial is always a toss up. Still amazes me that they didn't tie a game last year. Will be fun to watch it play out. 

PaulNewman

LGOTB, A key injury or two would seem like the only big potential obstacle.  Cannot lose Corkery (or Walcott).

Too bad Kenyon couldn't pick up a game with Haverford on the road trip to DC.  Both teams should be in the top 5 mix for most of the season, with the Lords only losing 1 senior from last year's squad.

Saint of Old

Haverford is a very good team who is on the upswing...
The next two seasons will be key for the program.

To make Final 4 they must host the Sweet 16 Pod (As they did last year).

This is the team that looks most like becoming the regional power that Messiah was (not that Messiah has given anything up) Lycoming is also in this conversation.

They beat SLU in the sweet 16 last year, then lost to team with a similar  style  (Oneonta) the day after to miss out on first final 4.
This is a ball playing team and should make noise.

I cant help but think last year was the year for this team to make  the final 4 though.

The season cannot get here soon enough.

PaulNewman

#4
A long-term challenge for Haverford is just the tiny size of school.  The combination of upper-tier NESCAC-level admissions difficulty and only 1200 students total I think will make sustained, high level success beyond a 3-5 year run (see other new thread) very, very difficult indeed.  One huge take-home message....make the most of your opportunities when you get them.  Nothing is guaranteed (as the cliche goes).

Love Haverford (the school), though.  My second-favorite LAC  ;).

backyarddawg

Quote from: NCAC New England on April 28, 2016, 12:20:17 PM
A long-term challenge for Haverford is just the tiny size of school.  The combination of upper-tier NESCAC-level admissions difficulty and only 1200 students total I think will make sustained, high level success beyond a 3-5 year run (see other new thread) very, very difficult indeed.  One huge take-home message....make the most of your opportunities when you get them.  Nothing is guaranteed (as the cliche goes).

Love Haverford (the school), though.  My second-favorite LAC  ;).


So are you saying that Coach Rineer & his staff should be given credit for the job he has done in his 5 years at Haverford?

2011- 11-6-2 (Conference final loss to Dickinson)
2012- 12-8-1 (Conference Champs/2nd Round NCAA)
2013- 11-5-2 (Centennial Regular Season Champs)
2014- 11-7-1 (Conference loss to Muhlenberg)
2015- 18-4 (Conference Champs/Undefeated 11-0/NCAA Elite 8/Top 3 seed)

If true about their SOS they have their hands full this year.


PaulNewman

Quote from: backyarddawg on April 28, 2016, 01:03:24 PM

So are you saying that Coach Rineer & his staff should be given credit for the job he has done in his 5 years at Haverford?

2011- 11-6-2 (Conference final loss to Dickinson)
2012- 12-8-1 (Conference Champs/2nd Round NCAA)
2013- 11-5-2 (Centennial Regular Season Champs)
2014- 11-7-1 (Conference loss to Muhlenberg)
2015- 18-4 (Conference Champs/Undefeated 11-0/NCAA Elite 8/Top 3 seed)

If true about their SOS they have their hands full this year.

Those overall stats over 5 years don't blow me away, but yes, I think a coaching staff deserves a ton of credit that can get a school like Haverford to within an eyelash of the Final Four and that was legitimately one of the very top teams in the country.  Sweet 16 or better in two out of the next 3-4 years would be impressive.

I do agree with Saint of Old.  One wonders if last year will end up having been their best chance.

Saint of Old

Quote from: NCAC New England on April 28, 2016, 12:20:17 PM
A long-term challenge for Haverford is just the tiny size of school.  The combination of upper-tier NESCAC-level admissions difficulty and only 1200 students total I think will make sustained, high level success beyond a 3-5 year run (see other new thread) very, very difficult indeed.  One huge take-home message....make the most of your opportunities when you get them.  Nothing is guaranteed (as the cliche goes).

Love Haverford (the school), though.  My second-favorite LAC  ;).

1200 students...
About the size of St. Lawrence for the last 20 years... does not seem to be  a deterrent so long as about 20-30 have good foot skills and a decent engine :)

PaulNewman

Quote from: Saint of Old on April 28, 2016, 01:17:31 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on April 28, 2016, 12:20:17 PM
A long-term challenge for Haverford is just the tiny size of school.  The combination of upper-tier NESCAC-level admissions difficulty and only 1200 students total I think will make sustained, high level success beyond a 3-5 year run (see other new thread) very, very difficult indeed.  One huge take-home message....make the most of your opportunities when you get them.  Nothing is guaranteed (as the cliche goes).

Love Haverford (the school), though.  My second-favorite LAC  ;).

1200 students...
About the size of St. Lawrence for the last 20 years... does not seem to be  a deterrent so long as about 20-30 have good foot skills and a decent engine :)

Really? I thought SLU had 2300+ students.  Big difference.  Even the LACs that are 1650 to 2000 range have much more leeway than an extremely selective school like Haverford with only 1200 (which also IIRC doesn't give coaches as much leverage with admissions as even the NESCACs). 

Mid-Atlantic Fan

There is so much parity in the college game now that it's a toss up every year. I don't think school size will play much of a factor for a team like Haverford. You look at the Rochester schools like RIT and UR and they have 10k+ students and they aren't winning more than schools like Haveford or Messiah, etc.

lastguyoffthebench

Nothing wrong with Haverford getting some love in their own thread.  With their schedule, I'm sure there will be a ton of traffic here.  I said it maybe 3 years ago that Haverford would make the elite 8... and I believe I said Final Four last year mid-season when the Fords turned their hats backwards and went all Lincoln Hawk... It was not the final four, but close.  They have the potential to get back there, but their window could be closing.  The CC has been spreading success evenly throughout the years (6 different champions the last 7 years).   We've seen Swat look dangerous in the past, Dickinson knocking on the door, Muhlenberg with a few up/downs, F&M has been on the rise...

Conference Champion AQ 
Haverford (2015, 2012)
Muhlenberg (2014)
F&M (2013)
Dickinson (2011)
Swarthmore (2010, 2008),
JHU (2009, 2007, 2006).

PaulNewman

Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on April 28, 2016, 02:44:16 PM
There is so much parity in the college game now that it's a toss up every year. I don't think school size will play much of a factor for a team like Haverford. You look at the Rochester schools like RIT and UR and they have 10k+ students and they aren't winning more than schools like Haveford or Messiah, etc.

Ah, nothing like a good esoteric debate to hone one's posting skills 4+ months before the season opens!

I will maintain that Haverford faces significant challenges, one of them being the school size.  Out of 1200, only roughly 600 are men.  There are athletes for other sports.  Haverford admissions isn't going to let in soccer classes of 10-12 kids and then let the coach see which 4-5 out of each class rise to the top.  It's also very hard to get in, limiting the pool even further.  On the plus side, Haverford is an extremely attractive school for good soccer players who are high-end students, but those don't grow on trees even though the youth soccer demographic certainly has more than their fair share of top-tier students.  Among that pool of high academic soccer players looking at D3 Haverford of course is competing with some other extremely attractive schools, like most of the NESCACs and a good portion of the other schools in the Centennial.  Given the overall attractiveness and reputation of the school, there's got to be some reasons why Haverford historically has not been at a powerhouse level.  They are doing a great job there now, but the odds are against them having a run of 5 or more consecutive NCAA appearances.  That's in part why I would place a bigger bet on a program like Tufts -- significantly bigger, the NESCACs tends to be big on athletics more so than Haverford/Swat, etc.

Rochester, while perhaps not elite level, has been a consistently strong soccer program for a number of years.  Their enrollment is in the 5500-6000 range.  RIT is over 10K.  Certainly being a bigger school guarantees nothing but it does create more room for bringing in a higher number of recruits and for potentially stretching admissions standards a little more than a school like Haverford, that, again, due to its size, has a real squeeze in terms of admissions.  As I suggested before, even other small schools with 1800-2000 students have more flexibility (and room) tha one with 1200.

Shooter McGavin

#12
Quote from: NCAC New England on April 28, 2016, 03:35:24 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on April 28, 2016, 02:44:16 PM
There is so much parity in the college game now that it's a toss up every year. I don't think school size will play much of a factor for a team like Haverford. You look at the Rochester schools like RIT and UR and they have 10k+ students and they aren't winning more than schools like Haveford or Messiah, etc.

Ah, nothing like a good esoteric debate to hone one's posting skills 4+ months before the season opens!

I will maintain that Haverford faces significant challenges, one of them being the school size.  Out of 1200, only roughly 600 are men.  There are athletes for other sports.  Haverford admissions isn't going to let in soccer classes of 10-12 kids and then let the coach see which 4-5 out of each class rise to the top.  It's also very hard to get in, limiting the pool even further.  On the plus side, Haverford is an extremely attractive school for good soccer players who are high-end students, but those don't grow on trees even though the youth soccer demographic certainly has more than their fair share of top-tier students.  Among that pool of high academic soccer players looking at D3 Haverford of course is competing with some other extremely attractive schools, like most of the NESCACs and a good portion of the other schools in the Centennial.  Given the overall attractiveness and reputation of the school, there's got to be some reasons why Haverford historically has not been at a powerhouse level.  They are doing a great job there now, but the odds are against them having a run of 5 or more consecutive NCAA appearances.  That's in part why I would place a bigger bet on a program like Tufts -- significantly bigger, the NESCACs tends to be big on athletics more so than Haverford/Swat, etc.

Rochester, while perhaps not elite level, has been a consistently strong soccer program for a number of years.  Their enrollment is in the 5500-6000 range.  RIT is over 10K.  Certainly being a bigger school guarantees nothing but it does create more room for bringing in a higher number of recruits and for potentially stretching admissions standards a little more than a school like Haverford, that, again, due to its size, has a real squeeze in terms of admissions.  As I suggested before, even other small schools with 1800-2000 students have more flexibility (and room) tha one with 1200.

Admissions doesn't say "Hey Haverford Men's Soccer you are only allowed to bring in 6 players this class." It's dependent on a lot of other factors. If a team graduates 10 guys then they will more than likely need to bring in a bigger class. The school won't deny these kids or you won't have a team. But if they graduate 2 players then they probably don't need to bring in 10-12 players either. It's a numbers game and ultimately comes down to the philosophy of the coach. Do you want 15 freshman coming in and have to rely on them to be impact players or do you bring 12 in the class before and have them be ready to go when they are sophomores? It's not up to admissions to decide that and the more success a team has then the school becomes more attractive for these players and it's great marketing for the school and the admissions office.

So I guess I am just confused why you think bigger is better in this case? I get the point you are aiming at but I don't think it's necessarily true or as big a factor as you are making it out to be.

If we just look at Sweet 16 teams from this past season and compare undergrad population...

Amherst=1800
Lycoming=1400
Brandeis=3600
Trinity=2300
Haverford=1200
St. Lawrence=2400
Oneonta=5800
MIT=4500
Loras=1600
DePauw=2400
St. Olaf=3000
Wheaton(Ill)=2500
Tufts=5000
Kenyon=1700
F&M=2300
Calvin=4000

A school with 1800 kids won the national title against a school with 1600 kids...none of those are "high population" schools like you are referring to.

It comes down to how good the coach is at recruiting, establishing a culture, and building up the program. School size is the last thing on a coaches mind during the process of getting a team ready for a season.

PaulNewman

Oh Shooter, I can see another interesting season is ahead.  And thanks for the karma hit.

Where did I say that "high population" schools are the top programs?  Where did I say coaches are thinking about school size when preparing for the upcoming season?

The point is that Haverford's extraordinary small size (by far the smallest on your list) IN COMBINATION with admissions selectivity and the values of the college presents a significant challenge.  And in that light Rineer has done a phenomenal job with the program.  Please find me even one example in the last ten years of Haverford bringing in 10+ recruits (excluding pure walk-ons).  There was article a few years back, I think in the New York Times, about the difficulty that coaches at Haverford face with recruiting.  A few sports could not get in their #1 recruits even when those recruits matched or exceeded the median stats for admissions for all students.  Maybe this is being missed here, but I am giving tremendous credit to the coach and the program for the level of success achieved against tough odds.

I never said a small school couldn't be successful.  The majority of D3s are small, but few are as small as Haverford with such difficult admissions standards.  Loras is small, yes, but they will have as many as 45-50 kids on a roster....more than D1s with 40,000+ students.  It's not just the size, but in Haverford's case, the size in combination with other factors related to the school is a major factor impacting the parameters the coaches there have to work within.

PaulNewman

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/sports/ncaafootball/21haverford.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/04/sports/ncaafootball/haverford-debates-impact-of-athletics.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/25/sports/ncaafootball/admissions-and-the-cold-slap-of-rejection.html

In one or more of the articles a typical year is described as 15% of total matriculants being recruited athletes with a reference to 55 athletes (including some not recruited who got in totally on their own) out of a class of 315.  That's 55 kids spread out across 21 total teams (male and female).