2010 Alfland Mug

Started by AUPepBand, November 24, 2010, 08:42:50 AM

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Frank Rossi

Quote from: maxpower on November 24, 2010, 03:46:42 PM
Lexicographical ones are the only muscles I bother to flex these days :).

I, for one, am always intimidated by such muscle.

AUKaz00

Quote from: maxpower on November 24, 2010, 03:39:51 PM
dahlby, take some time to read the whole board before you rant.... Cortland has acquiesced!

Either that or the NCAA overruled since this is their event.  Not sure which, but either way, as Nick Gatto would say, "I'm exited for saterday!"

Now, if only we can get a few of the band members back from Thanksgiving break a day early.  We may end up going with Emeritus members and kazoos.  But we'll be there playing and cheering as best we can!
Check out the official card game of the AU Pep Band - Str8 Eight!

labart96

#32
I hope Rossi and Ren get Pep into the booth for a guest appearance (i.e., kazoo solo)

Frank Rossi

Quote from: TGP on November 24, 2010, 03:59:32 PM
I hope Rossi and Ren get Pep into the booth for a guest appearance (i.e., kazoo solo)

Rossi lost his kazoo many moons ago...

saxontad

Quote from: TGP on November 24, 2010, 03:59:32 PM
I hope Rossi and Ren get Pep into the booth for a guest appearance (i.e., kazoo solo)

Pep definitely deserves a wider audience!!

On Pep and Saxon Warriors!!

RedDragonFan

To all those making the trip to Cortland for the game,(To see a Red Dragon win) regardless of which side you sit on, safe travels and enjoy the holiday.  Looking forward to a great game (Cortland wins) and apparently some top notch kazoo playing!  I have no idea what to expect having never seen an AU game, but no doubt both teams will show up loaded for bear. (Cortland moves on) Whatever the outcome, (Cortland wins)congrats to both teams for great seasons...it's always sad that one teams season will end. (Saxons)

(Dad was in advertising and was big in subliminal ad work!)

Frank Rossi

So what are your keys to this game if you had to come up with the top three things each team needs to do to win Saturday?

RedDragonFan

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 24, 2010, 06:22:07 PM
So what are your keys to this game if you had to come up with the top three things each team needs to do to win Saturday?
Cstate needs:

1. Pitcher sharp passing wise
2. Solid pressure from defense on AU's QB
3. Solid special teams play to win the field position battle

Left out Autera rushing well cause that's a given!

dahlby

#38
C'mon, give me a break...it takes a while for the postings to get to the west coast!

If PEP does a solo, could someone send me a copy of it? I will play it for our pep band.

lewdogg11

Quote from: No Longer Negative LD11 on November 24, 2010, 11:44:07 AM

Who will win the 2010 Alfland statue?

So has it been determined who is transporting the Alfland statue to the game?

AUSaxons

The 3 keys to victory for Alfred:
1. Can not turn the ball over. The AU offense, when on, has been unstoppable this season. But when they are out of sync and turn the ball over it leads to losses to inferior teams (RPI, Rochester) and subpar performances against subpar competition (St Lawrence). With Cortlands ball hawking secondary, this may be the single most important factor in determining the victor.
2. AU must have good protection on saturday. With all conference OLineman Zach Morgan being potentially out (Being the starting Left Tackle no less) its going to be key that the backup step up and perform. This may go hand in hand with key #1, and if protection is good I believe Secky will manage the game well and, through a balanced attack, put up a lot of points.
3. The AU secondary must step up and perform. Considering how heavily Cortland relies on Autera, this may seen counter intuitive, but AU's run defense has been consistently excellent all season long. If the secondary can turn Cortland into a run only team, I will take my chances that Clark, Raplee, Pieri and the rest of the front 7 can stop the run.

Overall, I would say the AU offense is a little bit better then the Cortland offense, but on the other side of the coin I would give the Cortland defense a slight edge over the AU defense. This game will come down to Secky's ability to manage the game and avoid negative yardage plays and turnovers. Obviously I am biased, and that is a grain of salt you should take while reading my predictions, but I think the AU offense comes out and puts on a show. I'll say AU 34 Cortland 17

AUSaxons

Another factor to consider is the Strength of Schedule factor. Per D3football.com, Alfred had the #3 SOS in the nation, with Cortland coming in at 102. In their 2 wins over decent teams (Montclair and Ithaca, though considering Ithaca to be a "good team" is highly debatable), Cortland won by a combined 4 points. Where, in Alfreds 3 wins over good teams (St John Fisher, Springfield and Ithaca, with Ithaca again being debatable) they won by a combined 32. Now I know that the transitive property does not apply in football, but Alfred (while more inconsistent) has looked a lot better when playing well. This may become another SUNY maritime like situation (MUCH MUCH MUCH less drastic) where a good record gets exposed by a better team. Not saying I think it will happen, but it is certainly possible.

Frank Rossi

Remember with SOS, the Empire 8 plays generally 5 OOC games (allowing for a huge variance in SOS above or below .500), while the NJAC teams play 1 OOC each (meaning SOS is trapped between .490 and .510 for the most part).  Again, this is a reminder of how deceiving SOS figure can be -- we don't truly know from the numbers alone how good/bad Cortland is this year.

RedDragonFan

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 24, 2010, 08:51:45 PM
Remember with SOS, the Empire 8 plays generally 5 OOC games (allowing for a huge variance in SOS above or below .500), while the NJAC teams play 1 OOC each (meaning SOS is trapped between .490 and .510 for the most part).  Again, this is a reminder of how deceiving SOS figure can be -- we don't truly know from the numbers alone how good/bad Cortland is this year.
Ok dumb question of the day so please excuse me in advance. Isn't SOS by definition then useless when comparing any two teams when they don't play common opponents or is there some attempt made to weight the calculations to make the results meaningful?

Frank Rossi

Quote from: RedDragonFan on November 24, 2010, 10:06:28 PM
Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 24, 2010, 08:51:45 PM
Remember with SOS, the Empire 8 plays generally 5 OOC games (allowing for a huge variance in SOS above or below .500), while the NJAC teams play 1 OOC each (meaning SOS is trapped between .490 and .510 for the most part).  Again, this is a reminder of how deceiving SOS figure can be -- we don't truly know from the numbers alone how good/bad Cortland is this year.
Ok dumb question of the day so please excuse me in advance. Isn't SOS by definition then useless when comparing any two teams when they don't play common opponents or is there some attempt made to weight the calculations to make the results meaningful?

No.  SOS was actually chosen, from my memory, in order to do just the opposite -- compare teams that lack common opponents, especially when teams from different regions are being compared.  If you have common opponents, your SOS will look very similar to the other team's SOS.

However, SOS only works well if one of two things exist:

1) The SOS's of the teams being compared are on either side of the .500 mark (showing some sort of meaningful deviation, especially if either or both are meaningfully away from .500); or

2) Both teams play in conferences with the same number of teams, and thus, a similar number of OOC games played by both teams' conference members.

The reason I say this is displayed by the following scenario.

Team A plays 5 OOC games with all 5 OOC opponents at 6-3 in games aside from the game vs. Team A.  Team A loses one of those games and finishes 9-1.

Team B plays 1 OOC game with the OOC opponent at 9-0 and wins that game.  Team B's only loss is to the 8-1 (against other teams) runner up in their conference.

Who had the better quality win?  Whose loss was against a better opponent based on numbers alone?  Guess what.  Team A's SOS, assuming some relatively consistent OOWPs (not varying much from the OWPs) will far exceed Team B's SOS.  Why?  More or less because Team A played in a smaller conference and had the ability to schedule teams that, when put together, had win/loss records that exceed .500, unlike Team B's requirement to play teams that add up to .500 in all but one game. 

Did SOS do its job there?  I'd argue no.  And the bigger problem is this:  what if Team A was actually in the NEFC, with mainly ECFC teams as the team's OOC opposition, and what if Team B was in the OAC, with just that one OOC game?  What did SOS accomplish exactly?

More to your question, though, SOS is more meaningful if the OOC games are identical or virtually identical and if the two teams play in the same region against somewhat equal opponents (on a subjective scale).  When we compare an East team with a West team, what do the numbers really mean?  Can we really compare those opponents when there's no crossover?  Essentially, isn't that an indication that the purpose of SOS under the current system isn't really being accomplished?