Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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Ralph Turner

Even with 7 Pool C bids, the ASC is very close to beating themselves out of a Pool C bid!  I think the best chance for a Pool C is for HSU to beat UMHB for the Pool A bid.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 11:02:04 PM
Even with 7 Pool C bids, the ASC is very close to beating themselves out of a Pool C bid!  I think the best chance for a Pool C is for HSU to beat UMHB for the Pool A bid.

I think you're right, Ralph.  That's the nature of the beast in the powerhouse meatgrinder conferences.  The selection criteria don't offer much leeway in that regard, perhaps unfairly.  And to make matters worse, especially for the teams in the ASC where geography works against them, they almost have to take on non-league games that provide further obstacles to getting to that 9 win target that Pool C teams really need.  LC and HSU are victims of that this year. 
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ExTartanPlayer

That's the nature of the beast in the powerhouse meatgrinder conferences.

I agree.  This problem isn't unique to the ASC, either.  The WIAC, OAC, have all experienced this in recent years:

WIAC: Last year's UW-Oshkosh resume, as of October 25, looked very much like the LaCollege's resume - a semicompetitive opening loss to Mount Union and then a 20-17 loss against UWW.  If there was ever a case for a two-loss team to get into the tournament, that seemed like it...until they lost the next week to another tough WIAC opponent (a UW-LaCrosse team that lost by UMHB by seven points ON THE ROAD - their 3-7 record is a touch deceiving because they played UWW twice, see note below, and also UMHB - that's a beast of a Division III schedule!).  Also, much like the ASC scheduling dilemma, the WIAC teams have a lot of trouble scheduling non-con games, so much so that they end up playing each other a second time in "non-league" games.

OAC: 2011 Baldwin-Wallace, a team that took Mount Union to the very wire on its home turf, didn't get into the playoffs at 8-2 because of an early-season loss to Capital (admittedly, this is their own fault because Capital wasn't very good).

The NWC and SCIAC's top teams often end up scheduling one another for non-con games, which is great from a competitive standpoint but also leads to the problem discussed here.  PLU, CLU, Linfield, Redlands might end up 7-2 with a pair of losses against top 5 teams.

Finally, although we're moving past the "whole game" debate...sorry Ralph, I still side

La College's season may come down to the last play FG against Wesley and the 30:01 minutes against UMHB.

Wouldn't every team's resume look an awful lot better if they had an option to take one made opponent FG off the board (or add a made FG of their own somewhere) and remove the worst 30-minute stretch of their season?  Doesn't that bring virtually every 8-2 or 7-3 team in the country into this discussion?  Just because their 30-minute "bad" stretch came against a really good team doesn't mean that they get a mulligan for it. 

What if last year's Baldwin-Wallace team could remove the last FIVE minutes against Mount Union, never mind the last 30?  Or the last 30 SECONDS of their game against Capital (they lost on a TD scored with 15 seconds to go)?

I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

HScoach

I think that Pool C is the safety net for good teams that are stuck in conference with Mount Union or Whitewater and then those teams which dropped a single game in a strong/competitive conference like the ASC, NWC, CCIW, E8, etc.  Lose twice and you're on thin ice.
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smedindy

It's simple calculus, really;

Win Your League.*

*OAC teams not named Mt. Union should have just one loss.

/Thinking the WIAC will break through the Whitewater codicil similar to the OAC rule either this year or next.

ExTartanPlayer

Thinking the WIAC will break through the Whitewater codicil similar to the OAC rule either this year or next.

I agree with this - I'd love to see a second WIAC team in the playoffs, and I'm pulling for Oshkosh this year for that very reason - but the WIAC has had enough trouble even producing an 8-2 runnerup, so it's been hard to get a second team in.  I would have been curious to see even last year's Oshkosh team in the playoffs, but they dropped the ball against UW-SP after the heartbreak against UWW and removed that possibility.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

hazzben

Quote from: HScoach on October 16, 2012, 07:11:39 PM
At this point the obvious #1's are, in order:

Mary Harden Baylor
Mount Union
St Thomas
Linfield
...

If I had to guess at this point, my 4 teams listed above are the #1 seeds with Mount hosting the traditional eastern region and St Thomas hosting the northern teams.  A 9-1 UWW would then be the #2 seed under STU.  Wesley could be the #2 under either Mount or MHB.

I'd agree with this. Bottom line, baring big upsets, some teams will have to get moved out of the West.

Potential Unbeatens: UST, Linfield/Willamette, UWO, Coe

Potential 1 Loss: UWO(C)/UWW(A), Linfield/Willamette (C), Bethel (C), Augsburg(A)/Concordia(A)/UST(C), Cal Lutheran (A), NWC (A), Lake Forest (A) - NB: The bracket represents their likely category if they ended with 1 loss.

There's obviously some cross-polination in those lists. And things could get crazy in the MIAC with UST, Augsburg and Concordia all still to play each other, but UST likely wins both. The reality is there still could be a slew of unbeaten and criteria favorable one loss teams out West.

But several are candidates (depending on pairings) to be moved to the North region, in order of proximity: Lake Forest, UWW, UWO, Coe, UST/Bethel/Augsburg/NWC.

K-Mack

Quote from: jknezek on October 16, 2012, 11:38:19 AM
LC also has a problem because they lost badly last weekend. A lot of my supposition of them getting a 2 loss bid was built around losing close games to top 5 teams. Losing 30-3 takes a lot of steam out of that argument. While I think UMHB might be the best team in the country, or at least in the top 3, that wasn't what anyone would consider a "competitive" loss. There is no shame in that loss to a team that good, but it isn't the resume builder they needed.

Agree here. I've never seen where the regional win pct. has killed a team.

This whole thread is very good, at least to the degree I've read it. Was going to do a major ATN item, but if it just repeats much of this, makes more sense to refer people here and spend my time providing new analysis on something :) We'll see.

One team that i don't think we're talking about but shouldn't forget (and this is mentioned in Thursday's column) is Sul Ross State. With a loss to UMHB but wins through the rest of the ASC, we can throw out their D-II losses just like McMurry did last season.
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K-Mack

Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2012, 04:07:19 PM
If Oshkosh beats Whitewater, then that's going to be a real puzzler for the committee? I can hear the howls already from a team excluded because a two-loss team with meh SOS and a bad loss is in the playoffs. CWRU was left out last year for one bad loss and an undefeated regional record.

UW-W is likely done with a loss this weekend. As always, two-loss teams' fortunes always depend on the strength of the Pool C candidates nationally, but the Warhawks will have a not-impressive SoS and no wins over RROs unless Platteville finishes 8-2 and sneaks in there. And I'm not so sure UW-W would have all that much to cry about.

If they win, and Oshkosh finishes strong, two 9-1 WIAC teams are locks, IMO.
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K-Mack

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2012, 04:34:15 PM
Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2012, 04:07:19 PM
If Oshkosh beats Whitewater, then that's going to be a real puzzler for the committee? I can hear the howls already from a team excluded because a two-loss team with meh SOS and a bad loss is in the playoffs. CWRU was left out last year for one bad loss and an undefeated regional record.

One difference is that Whitewater will (probably) have a win against a RR'd team...I think Platteville will make the cut in the West unless they lose again.  It just depends on whether or not this committee are strict constructionists or loose constructionists when it comes to the criteria.  Previous championship performance may be considered, but only amongst teams that are inseparable by the primary criteria and have undefeated records.  I don't believe that Whitewater has a playoff resumé without a WIAC championship.  That loss to Buffalo State KILLS them, even if it is out of region.  Looking the other way on that result would be incredibly irresponsible of the committee.

Good points.

I forgot about that being a non-region game. Could change things, or at least provide an opening for the committee to put UW-W in if they want to.

That said, it would also matter how they look against UW-O and how they finish out the season. The picture hasn't quite been fleshed out yet.
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smedindy

The committee didn't care that CWRU was 9-0 in region last year. But when is consistency part of the equation anyway?

K-Mack

Quote from: jknezek on October 16, 2012, 09:34:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 09:30:32 PM
La College's season  may come down to the last play FG against Wesley and the 30:01 minutes against UMHB.

Almost all Pool C teams will have similar stories. Maybe not against the same caliber opponents, and I've been on record as saying that LC is a good C candidate if they run the table, but to be a Pool C means to have had 1 game, 1 drive, 1 quarter, 1 turnover, whatever, that cost you that 1 game that you needed. In LC's case, it was 30 minutes of lambasting and 4 possessions against one of the best teams in the country, or a really close loss, at home, to another of the best teams in the country. Hard luck, but they agreed to the schedule and they have to win the games.

True. They also have to beat Hardin-Simmons and Sul Ross ... this is how we got ahead of ourselves with UW-Oshkosh last year.

The Wesley loss basically meant LC had to win the ASC. There'd be an exceptional case if UMHB had squeaked by, even though MOV is not criteria, we'd sympathize.

The flipside too is that if they'd beaten Wesley, they'd been in great shape and the Wolverines would be the ones in trouble for having scheduled big.
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K-Mack

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 17, 2012, 09:41:49 AM
Thinking the WIAC will break through the Whitewater codicil similar to the OAC rule either this year or next.

I agree with this - I'd love to see a second WIAC team in the playoffs, and I'm pulling for Oshkosh this year for that very reason - but the WIAC has had enough trouble even producing an 8-2 runnerup, so it's been hard to get a second team in.  I would have been curious to see even last year's Oshkosh team in the playoffs, but they dropped the ball against UW-SP after the heartbreak against UWW and removed that possibility.

From my own personal experience, I remember it being very hard to get geared up after your conference championship hopes go out the window.

But I also remember it happening one year and the very next week the leader lost and it was three-way tie possibilities if we handled our business, which we did (and then lost the following week to finish 7-3).

Treating every week like it's an important game -- it is, because it's the only one you can win that day -- is the mark of great teams. It's remarkable how UMU does it, for instance, when they know they're going to smash a team. They still play nearly flawless and haven't had a stumble in years.
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K-Mack

Quote from: hazzben on October 17, 2012, 11:35:24 AM
Quote from: HScoach on October 16, 2012, 07:11:39 PM
At this point the obvious #1's are, in order:

Mary Harden Baylor
Mount Union
St Thomas
Linfield
...

If I had to guess at this point, my 4 teams listed above are the #1 seeds with Mount hosting the traditional eastern region and St Thomas hosting the northern teams.  A 9-1 UWW would then be the #2 seed under STU.  Wesley could be the #2 under either Mount or MHB.

I'd agree with this. Bottom line, baring big upsets, some teams will have to get moved out of the West.

Potential Unbeatens: UST, Linfield/Willamette, UWO, Coe

Potential 1 Loss: UWO(C)/UWW(A), Linfield/Willamette (C), Bethel (C), Augsburg(A)/Concordia(A)/UST(C), Cal Lutheran (A), NWC (A), Lake Forest (A) - NB: The bracket represents their likely category if they ended with 1 loss.

There's obviously some cross-polination in those lists. And things could get crazy in the MIAC with UST, Augsburg and Concordia all still to play each other, but UST likely wins both. The reality is there still could be a slew of unbeaten and criteria favorable one loss teams out West.

But several are candidates (depending on pairings) to be moved to the North region, in order of proximity: Lake Forest, UWW, UWO, Coe, UST/Bethel/Augsburg/NWC.

I'm not sure those are the obvious No. 1s. UST IMO is no lock to go undefeated, but if it does, it will have the SoS for a No. 1

UW-Oshkosh could push Linfield though. They'd each have multiple results, potentially, against regionally ranked opponents, but as with everything, how the other teams perform both in the region and across the nation would affect the layout of the bracket, so I don't see much point in speculating yet about who would have to move where.

I also don't think it's a given that an unbeaten Hobart or Johns Hopkins wouldn't get a 1 seed. Certainly a bracket with a powerhouse like UMU to go through is more fair, but there's nothing on the books that says they have to do that.

One truism ... it always looks at this time of the season like there will be a bunch of unbeatens, but not very many teams close the deal. There will likely be some upsets.

I looked back at last year. Seems like the 27th was when the playoff talk got hot and heavy, but it's never too early to speculate I guess, as long as we acknowledge it as such.

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2011/heres-our-regional-rankings
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HScoach

I should have qualified that those are my #1 seeds now.   Not at the end.

Regardless, it's never too early to start talking playoffs!
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.